Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Taygibay]

So, the problem runs deeper than we discuss...
As again I am saying IAF top brass never comment on this aspect of their combat sqn limitation instead they just harp on no of sqn.. No relation/talk on pilots shortage, how many planes in sqn ... Etc etc..

A suggestion :
the IAF brass may have stopped trying to plan pilots' numbers according to the number of planes ...
because the vagaries of procurement have long since dissociated the two?

When you don't use a learned ability long enough, it eventually goes away.

Your ratio comment that follows makes perfect sense as planes fly more hours than pilots.
That is the case in the Armée de l'Air and many others. Pilot 180h or less. Plane 200+.
Both per year. And with inverse reasonings : the pilot is undertrained below 180 hours / year
but the unitary plane must fly a certain amount for ownership of it to make economic sense.

Food for thought, Tay.

 

[halloweene]

A suggestion :
the IAF brass may have stopped trying to plan pilots' numbers according to the number of planes ...
because the vagaries of procurement have long since dissociated the two?

When you don't use a learned ability long enough, it eventually goes away.

Your ratio comment that follows makes perfect sense as planes fly more hours than pilots.
That is the case in the Armée de l'Air and many others. Pilot 180h or less. Plane 200+.
Both per year. And with inverse reasonings : the pilot is undertrained below 180 hours / year
but the unitary plane must fly a certain amount for ownership of it to make economic sense.

Food for thought, Tay.

Tell th full truth? DA i afraid indian production might cost 3 times as french production.

 

[randomradio]

A suggestion :
the IAF brass may have stopped trying to plan pilots' numbers according to the number of planes ...
because the vagaries of procurement have long since dissociated the two?

When you don't use a learned ability long enough, it eventually goes away.

Your ratio comment that follows makes perfect sense as planes fly more hours than pilots.
That is the case in the Armée de l'Air and many others. Pilot 180h or less. Plane 200+.
Both per year. And with inverse reasonings : the pilot is undertrained below 180 hours / year
but the unitary plane must fly a certain amount for ownership of it to make economic sense.

Food for thought, Tay.

In the IAF:
Su-30 pilots fly 250+ hours a year. Mig-29 pilots fly 180 hours a year. M-2000 pilots fly 140-160 hours a year.

But the aircraft themselves fly much lesser.

Tell th full truth? DA i afraid indian production might cost 3 times as french production.

Then Make in India for Rafale will fail.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I


Then Make in India for Rafale will fail.

Agreed, the point of MII is to have comparable costs to off the shelf Rafales- if not cheaper. 3 times as much imples $300 million per Rafale- no way is that going to work.


@PARIKRAMA game over if this is the case.

 

[Taygibay]

In the IAF:
Su-30 pilots fly 250+ hours a year. Mig-29 pilots fly 180 hours a year. M-2000 pilots fly 140-160 hours a year.

But the aircraft themselves fly much lesser.

In that case, your earlier assumption of the ratio being a lesser problem would be valid.
However inverting that ratio would solve your problem which explains the GoI's availability clause in the Raffy deal!

QED, Tay.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

But the aircraft themselves fly much lesser.

Why?
There is two explanation possible:

• There is too Much plane compare to pilot: So IAF have to ask for more pilot instead of asking for more plane
• The availability of plane is too low: Pilot cannot fly the minimum requested to maintain their qualifications and leave, the total amont of pilot remaining fit with the total flying hours done.

I think the first possibility is not likely.

 

[Taygibay]

And I'll squarely root for the second ---» [ ]

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Tell th full truth? DA i afraid indian production might cost 3 times as french production.

What happen for the MMRCA?
The MMRCA clause required to take HAL as integrator, so HAL could not commit on his price because he did not know the files.
So, DA and its subcontractors are committed to supply cost and hours of labor that India has valued with the HAL hourly rates.
So, HAL was not engaged and a position of strength, and had quietly tripled the number of hours, bringing the project out of budget.

It's a low part of total cost, but after that the price on which Rafale was declare L1 was not the price that engage Dassault. No other solution than to cancel MMRCA.

 

[randomradio]

Why?
There is two explanation possible:

• There is too Much plane compare to pilot: So IAF have to ask for more pilot instead of asking for more plane
• The availability of plane is too low: Pilot cannot fly the minimum requested to maintain their qualifications and leave, the total amont of pilot remaining fit with the total flying hours done.

I think the first possibility is not likely.

It's the first one. We have had major shortages in basic and intermediate/advanced trainers. So not enough pilots are trained ever year.

From articles I cannot post-

The first stage is now being conducted on newly-acquired Swiss propeller-driven Pilatus PC-7 basic trainer aircraft (BTA), which can undertake instrument, tactical and night-flying as well as some aerobatics. The Pilatus aircraft were an emergency purchase after IAF training schedule went haywire following the grounding of the entire fleet of the 114 old piston-engine HPT-32 aircraft -- which had long served as the BTA -- after a crash killed the pilot in August 2009.
The intermediate stage is currently undertaken on the equally obsolete Kiran aircraft, whose operational life has been repeatedly extended due to the absence of the Sitara IJT. But the Kirans, in gradually reducing numbers, can be used till 2017-18 at the most.
The final stage, where the pilots are taught the intricacies of combat fighter flying including air-to-ground bombing, is conducted on British Hawk advanced jet trainers (AJTs). Earlier, the cadets were forced to graduate directly to the highly-demanding MiG-21s after flying sub-sonic aircraft like HPT-32 and Kirans.
The IAF may now have to restrict its fighter training to two stages, first on Pilatus and then the Hawk AJTs. Incidentally, almost 40% of the 1,100 crashes recorded by IAF since 1970 have been attributed to ``human error (air crew)''. "Technical defects" is the other equally big reason for the crashes.

The problem is worse than you think because we don't have enough planes and we don't have enough pilots. But the problem of pilots is being solved and will soon be solved. While problem of squadrons is yet to be solved.

Tell th full truth? DA i afraid indian production might cost 3 times as french production.

What happen for the MMRCA?
The MMRCA clause required to take HAL as integrator, so HAL could not commit on his price because he did not know the files.
So, DA and its subcontractors are committed to supply cost and hours of labor that India has valued with the HAL hourly rates.
So, HAL was not engaged and a position of strength, and had quietly tripled the number of hours, bringing the project out of budget.

It's a low part of total cost, but after that the price on which Rafale was declare L1 was not the price that engage Dassault. No other solution than to cancel MMRCA.

Are the two of you talking about the MMRCA contract or the new GTG deal that is yet to be negotiated?

 

[Abingdonboy]

What happen for the MMRCA?
The MMRCA clause required to take HAL as integrator, so HAL could not commit on his price because he did not know the files.
So, DA and its subcontractors are committed to supply cost and hours of labor that India has valued with the HAL hourly rates.
So, HAL was not engaged and a position of strength, and had quietly tripled the number of hours, bringing the project out of budget.

It's a low part of total cost, but after that the price on which Rafale was declare L1 was not the price that engage Dassault. No other solution than to cancel MMRCA.

So HAL scuppered the MMRCA by effectively misleading the GoI/MoD? This means that if Dassualt sets up an Indian production line with its own choice of partner it will control the costs and this heavy (and unacceptable) 3x cost won't be present?

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

So HAL scuppered the MMRCA by effectively misleading the GoI/MoD? This means that if Dassualt sets up an Indian production line with its own choice of partner it will control the costs and this heavy (and unacceptable) 3x cost won't be present?

I hope so.

It's the first one. We have had major shortages in basic and intermediate/advanced trainers. So not enough pilots are trained ever year.

Are the two of you talking about the MMRCA contract or the new GTG deal that is yet to be negotiated?

For me I spoke of MMRCA Contract. For the GtG there isn't such problem because there is no competition so the partner may have access to the files.

 

[raktaka]

What happen for the MMRCA?
The MMRCA clause required to take HAL as integrator, so HAL could not commit on his price because he did not know the files.
So, DA and its subcontractors are committed to supply cost and hours of labor that India has valued with the HAL hourly rates.
So, HAL was not engaged and a position of strength, and had quietly tripled the number of hours, bringing the project out of budget.

It's a low part of total cost, but after that the price on which Rafale was declare L1 was not the price that engage Dassault. No other solution than to cancel MMRCA.

Even IF your Claim was true and HAL tripled the number of hours, it should have been not more expensive than Dassault production cost since Indian salaries are 1/5th that of French salaries to 1/7th of French salary.

Even if Indian HAL factor workers salary is raised exorbitantly to 1/3rd of French salary then the cost of production in India should have been the SAME as that in France.


Funny how that is not so and the blame is put on the door steps of HAL.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

DM MP on the record last year in an interview made two claims.. This was right after PM NaMo asked for 36 jets

1. He said MMRCA is approprixmately Rs 90000 crs
2. HAL takes 2.7 times manhours to make one plane as compared to Dassault

Of course the manhour increase pushes everything haywired right from slow production schedule to increase in cost of production as you end up shelling out more in human capital cost for poor efficiency..

This problem is partly solved by letting Dassault chose the partner from private sector, train them, increase their skills and in tturn ensure production efficiency and similar manhours as is used by Dassault in Merignac plant.


On top the cost of human capital is yes indeed closer to 1/5th for India offering substantial saving for the Indian made Rafale

If you go by basic stuff, MMRCA avg cost all inclusive was approx Rs 720cr per jet looking at the 90000 crs figure...

That's the same range of Rs 720 crs now being targeted for per jet+ weapons package as per Dinakar Peri from the Hindu and other news channel like CNN awaaz etc..

Initially we were looking for closer to Rs650 crs of almost Euro 90 Mn for jet plus weapons in negotiations..

What I was told that for a larger order size of 200 kind of figure zone, India can procure jets plus weapons around Rs 540 crs owing to cost benefits.. Thats the median of range quoted most optimistic at Rs 500 crs and upper limit of Rs 580 crs. Implying between euro 75 mn to Euro 80 mn based on a massive order, localisation of supply chain partially and economies of scale coupled with lower human capital cost..

This is practically impossible if HAL becomes the partner...

Indeed the figure represents almost 20% -25% saving based on upper reaches of 580 crs to 540 crs median value as compared to MMRCA.

The new government is actually working on that logic to reduce the cost and accommodate tangible technology transfer to cases like LCA navy UC, perhaps Indian UCAV program to even a tie up for AMCA program other than blind pursuit of everything under the guise of technology transfer.....

I think @halloweene was having fun here by reminding us the truth why HAL created Rafales would be costly and why now a pvt sector company offers benefit to India..

 

[raktaka]

DM MP on the record last year in an interview made two claims.. This was right after PM NaMo asked for 36 jets

1. He said MMRCA is approprixmately Rs 90000 crs
2. HAL takes 2.7 times manhours to make one plane as compared to Dassault

Of course the manhour increase pushes everything haywired right from slow production schedule to increase in cost of production as you end up shelling out more in human capital cost for poor efficiency..

This problem is partly solved by letting Dassault chose the partner from private sector, train them, increase their skills and in tturn ensure production efficiency and similar manhours as is used by Dassault in Merignac plant.


On top the cost of human capital is yes indeed closer to 1/5th for India offering substantial saving for the Indian made Rafale

If you go by basic stuff, MMRCA avg cost all inclusive was approx Rs 720cr per jet looking at the 90000 crs figure...

That's the same range of Rs 720 crs now being targeted for per jet+ weapons package as per Dinakar Peri from the Hindu and other news channel like CNN awaaz etc..

Initially we were looking for closer to Rs650 crs of almost Euro 90 Mn for jet plus weapons in negotiations..

What I was told that for a larger order size of 200 kind of figure zone, India can procure jets plus weapons around Rs 540 crs owing to cost benefits.. Thats the median of range quoted most optimistic at Rs 500 crs and upper limit of Rs 580 crs. Implying between euro 75 mn to Euro 80 mn based on a massive order, localisation of supply chain partially and economies of scale coupled with lower human capital cost..

This is practically impossible if HAL becomes the partner...

Indeed the figure represents almost 20% -25% saving based on upper reaches of 580 crs to 540 crs median value as compared to MMRCA.

The new government is actually working on that logic to reduce the cost and accommodate tangible technology transfer to cases like LCA navy UC, perhaps Indian UCAV program to even a tie up for AMCA program other than blind pursuit of everything under the guise of technology transfer.....

I think @halloweene was having fun here by reminding us the truth why HAL created Rafales would be costly and why now a pvt sector company offers benefit to India..

And here I thought you were the rational one.

2.7 more man-hour does not necessarily translate to "slow production schedule, increase in cost of production OR poor efficiency". You demonstrate profound ignorance.

1. Utilization of Man Hours in production are not LINEAR, they can also be parallel activity which can also result in SHORTER production schedule.

2. Lower Indian salary which is 1/7th of French salary will lead to REDUCE in cost of production.

3. More Man Hours can be due to lower Automation and more Man power involvement. This does not necessarily mean lower quality, it can ALSO result in better quality. For E.g. One of the most expensive Luxury cars in the world like Bentley or Rolls Royce is HAND MADE.


India has a HUGE population which needs employment so Automation that ensure lack of jobs is not exactly something we should aspire for. Especially if we are spending 150 million $ per plane.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Even IF your Claim was true and HAL tripled the number of hours, it should have been not more expensive than Dassault production cost since Indian salaries are 1/5th that of French salaries to 1/7th of French salary.

Even if Indian HAL factor workers salary is raised exorbitantly to 1/3rd of French salary then the cost of production in India should have been the SAME as that in France.


Funny how that is not so and the blame is put on the door steps of HAL.

As I said It was a low part of the price, the problem was not the price, the problem was a formal problem because the MMRCA rules was very strict. The evaluation of the price made by the commission was not agree by Dassault due to the discrepancies, nobody never think that there will be such a difference in man-hours needed, but the final result was that the price on which Dassault was declared L1 is not the final price of the proposal. In fact Dassault is L1 because the same would have happen with Eurofighter, but there is no proof. One can say that it is the fault of Dassault, or due to the organisation of the competition or the fault of HAL, but me I just tell you the story.