Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[Abingdonboy]

If you see a basic math,

The logic of these things is always disarmingly simple but the media get themselves lost chasing their tails with figures. They never stop to ask the most fundamental questions.

Personally i would rather want AMCA to have a not just FGFA tech but also Rafale tech. and for that FGFA if it comes HAL is there. But if Rafale does not come AMCA wont get that tech, reactor tech wont come, Barracuda tech wont come to SSN program, LCA Navy program gets delayed with no one helping us solve under carriage issues ad smart cities, investments and what not...

As stated, India has more to gain with France then it does with Russia. Now, I don't know which side has intiated it but am I the only one that has noticed a descernable chill in Indo-Russian ties in the last 18 months? Modi has visited France 3 times, Doval has done so 4 times (that we know of), Hollande has visited India once, the French DM has visited 2/3 times etc. The Indo-Russian interaction by comparison has been minimal- almost on the level of Indo-UK interaction!


If I was going to place bets I would find it hard to beleive that Russia comes out the winner when pitted against France, the GoI doesn't even seem to be trying to play "fair" anymore- they have a predetermined "winner" and are getting all the ducks in a row now whilst the Russians scramble around.

France just needs to get Dassualt to tow the line, I would be rather amazed if they are able to dictate policy to their government or at least interfere to at a strategic level.

@Taygibay @Vauban @halloweene

Thats how USD Ruble looks like. Ruble has devaluated so much that USD has run amok.

In simple words if in 2012 1st Jan the contratc of FGFA was estimated say at USD 25 Bn then in Rubles that was 802.875 Bn rubles.

Fast forward to present day say at 75.3835 exchange rate the ruble converted into USD is USD 10.65 Bn

Judging by talks of 12 Bn that could have happened in when USD/Ruble was in 66ish range and thats bang in December timeline when PM NaMo visited

And now talking USD 8 bn means two things.
The whole cost for the program has been revised downward
Second the cost of Ruble devaluation has helped it bring lower compared to 4 years back time.

Nice analysis bro! Indian media at its best.

And naturally the reality will be a bit more nuanced than that. The Indian side has some very shrewd negotiators so, say, what if the Indian side proposed 50% of the deal would be paid in USD and 50% in Rubles? As the above analysis doesn't take into account the true cost of the deal TO INDIA. As India's currency is not the USD but the Rupee which makes any Ruble/USD ER almost irrelevent. What you have to focus on is the relative Rupee ERs.

The Rupee/USD ER is at its highest for a while now whilst the Rupee/Ruble ER is rather favourable.


Anyway, I'm less and less convinced the FGFA will ever see the light of day now. It's 2016 now, the first FGFA prototype should have been in ASTE's hands almost 2 years ago, there is almost nothing to show as far as the FGFA project is concerned and it's ment to enter service in 6 years? Good luck with that! Russia has doubled down with the Su-35 and ordered more of them, clearly the plane the FGFA is meant to be a derivative of isn't itself coming anytime soon.

Even when Russia's economy was stagnating as opposed to in recession it was taking India for a ride, now its economy is in a tail spin how exactly do we expect the Russians to fund their share of the project? It's time India got itself away from being Russia's cash cow.

 

[Nilgiri]

Of course, but it DOES have huge strategic implications. Mr Hollande made it clear that the Rafale's sale to India was a strategic deal and showcased the Indo-French deepening of ties. After both sides have placed so much emphasis on the Rafale deal specifically (Mr Hollande must have mentioned it 5-6 times during his remarks in the joint press conference with Modi) and the IGA has been announced, no Rafale deal now would be a consdierable dent to all future Indo-French strategic deals. This is a fact.

It's for this reason, I don't see the French backing down now- had the IGA not been signed I could see it but Hollande has put his cards on the table and he is behind the Rafale deal, Russia is going to lose this game and they are going to lose BIG. Think about the diveregence in reporting vis a vis strategic deals with India and Russia/France in the past few months, France has overwhelminginly hogged the limelight with a swathe of strategic deals being clinched, what has Russia got? The Ka-226s? All the hype before Modi's visit to Russia resulted in excatly ZERO strategic deals- no FGFA, no MRTA, no SSN, not even the Talwars.

India is playing Russia and France against each other and it is heading for a conclusion, Russia is now said to have revised (downwards) the FGFA's cost for India and France is still working on the Rafale price.

There's something brewing between India and Russia and it's not going to be pretty, this is a divorce that has been long overdue.

@PARIKRAMA @Levina @Parul @Vauban

I get what you are saying...but I don't think one or the other will suddenly be a huge crushing loser that will go into major sulking mode (we certainly don't want Russia to do that).

Both Russia and France have enough going on with India in many realms of economic activity that any final decision either way is going to be quite heavily mitigated...even if we are just talking about defense. S-400 and additional Scorpene for example.....not to mention the crucial overall engagement in energy and transport India has with any major economy.

Maybe Hollande has staked a lot more on this (Modi certainly hasnt, and Putin couldn't care less on a political level)...but the overall winner whatever the decisions taken...will be India since its clearly a buyers market given we can play and hedge with two major defence provider/developers here.

Let us wait and see of course.

As India's currency is not the USD but the Rupee which makes any Ruble/USD ER almost irrelevent. What you have to focus on is the relative Rupee ERs.

Ruble has depreciated versus USD a lot lot more than INR has. So that means rubles have depreciated versus INR too.

Earlier One ruble bought 1.8 rupees.....now one ruble buys around 0.9 rupees.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I get what you are saying...but I don't think one or the other will suddenly be a huge crushing loser that will go into major sulking mode (we certainly don't want Russia to do that).

Both Russia and France have enough going on with India in many realms of economic activity that any final decision either way is going to be quite heavily mitigated...even if we are just talking about defense. S-400 and additional Scorpene for example.....not to mention the crucial overall engagement in energy and transport India has with any major economy.

I don't expect either side to go into "sulking mode", but I do see this deal as a litmus test and evidence of the fork in the road India has now come to. I think we can all agree that if India signs for 36 Rafales, it is effectively signing up for >150 and this is a HUGE commitment and would signal a strategic shift of India. This would open up a lot of other strategic avenues for India and France to commit to ie SSNs, aircraft carriers, 5th gen fighters, UCAVs etc etc.

If India doubles down and goes with Russia (FGFA in lieu of the Rafale) then the scope for deeper cooperation with France in parrell is severely negated.

Maybe Hollande has staked a lot more on this (Modi certainly hasnt, and Putin couldn't care less on a political level)...but the overall winner whatever the decisions taken

I don't think Modi has invest much politcal capital in this relationship either- foreign policy of GoIs (outside of Pakistan/China) is basically ignored by the Indian media/polical establishment. BUT, I think, personally, Modi has invested a lot in the Indo-French relationship. Smart cities and the solar alliance are both "pet" projects of his and are two areas France is workign with India deeply and as an aside, the largest single loco buy (infrastructure related) in India's recent histroy went to France (Alstom).

I don't see any of this as a coincidence, Modi is well known as being a "hands on" leader who personally monitors infrastrucutre projects through the PMO, it would have been his nod that greenlit all of the above, and who did he choose? France.

Taking this "France vs Russia" discussion further, let's look at the Jaitpur plant. Every single non-Russian reactor made in India is a snub to Russia and their counter-offers, the Russians have offered to deliver all N-reactors to India that it could need but the fact that the GoI has now agreed on setting up the world's largest nuclear power station with FRANCE and not Russia is pretty telling in itself. 6 reactors in one go is more than Russia has secured with India.

What deals has Russia recieved or offered in comparison in the past 20 months? Outside of the Ka-226T deal I am really scratching my head.

This is a pretty clear indication of where ties are headed IMHO...

 

[dadeechi]

@Abingdonboy @PARIKRAMA @knight11 @Nilgiri @cerberus @Spectre


I agree with @Abingdonboy that Russia would loose this battle with France (FGFA vs RAFALE) and France has nothing to worry.

It's not that Russia has nothing to offer that India needs. There are many items like Nuke subs, ships, FGFA, Super Suhkois, S-400s, Nuclear reactors, Choppers, MTA, Tanks etc that are on table and Russia has been bending backwards to get these deals done.

The reason Russia is not able to close them is due to the fact that India currently being led by a west leaning government in BJP/Modi. Just look at the two chief guests that Modi had - 1st was Obama and the next was Hollande. Modi and Putin meetings took place ONLY because they were forced due to the institutionalized yearly summit meetings between the countries. If that was not the case the meetings would not have taken place in the first place

I am now waiting for the IAF to issue a statement that the is no Plan B for RAFALEs

Whoa! Keep calm and have a sip of context, Dadeechi my friend!

We stopped the delivery only after asking the client to stop attacking a rather neutral autonomous country
on our common continent, offering a provision to re-activate the deal once this happened!
Moscow chose to hunt for Mariupol instead; so not our circus anymore?
You have nothing that compares on your continent. Think Japan refusing to sell you a signed deal mil ship
because Dehli invaded Malaysia, incredibly hypothetical but somewhat in the same category.

The problem in that deal was present from inception, mate : Trying to sell a high value asset for expeditionary
warfare to a non-ally ex-opponent with a proven record of invasion to helpless neighbours!
Our NATO allies had griped about it as soon as it was revealed, before it was signed!
Had those Mistrals been for India, that they'd have paraded on Republic day decked in Orange and Green!
HUH? m'well, not down the avenue but you get the idea ...

Good day all, Tay.

Was there an imminent threat to France? No

Was the contract already signed? Yes

Did France back out of the contract? Yes

All the things you have mentioned is just to mask the lost glory of France's Independent policy. France is going through a very bad economic patch and it would toe the NATO/EU line even if it is not in the best interest of France herself.

Don't get me wrong. India does trust France because of their historical support to India during the tough times when no other country has supported her. But there is strong apprehensiveness in Indian circles after the Mistral collapse. The ball is clearly in the French court to demonstrate to the world that France is back on the block with it's Independent foreign policy. Until then people would no longer take French seriously.

 

[Taygibay]

Was there an imminent threat to France? No

No, but there was one for the EU as group. India is not part of a union with similar weight and obligations
so that you may not get this part. The EU interplay is complex. If we sell invasion type ships to a nation
that has an an on-going military interference in a case scenario that frightens allies ( Baltic states ),
we disappoint partners in a Europe that we'd want more autonomous on such matters.
- Build a Europe of defence, we're saying ... while we make cash arming your enemies!
It was political ruin to press on.

Was the contract already signed? Yes

And as I said, we offered a way out : we suspended ( temporize if you will ) delivery first!
We said to Putin, if you stop helping in Donbass, we'll resume the contract. The Crimean nab
was not even challenged in that option.
He said : Russia does what it wants, flock the world! instead.

Did France back out of the contract? Yes

Yes, after what I described above!

All the things you have mentioned is just to mask the lost glory of France's Independent policy. France is going through a very bad economic patch and it would toe the NATO/EU line even if it is not in the best interest of France herself.

Wrong! Very wrong! France's Independent policy has been on the rise anew since 1994 ( see if you know why? ).

Check who was tasked autonomously and outside Blue Helmets mandates by the UN in fixing conflicts!

Who put the veto down to America concerning Iraq 2003 but still came to help the Iraqi government today?

Who refused NATO article 5 and activated 42.7 of the EU foreign policy council instead? And why?

Who can ( usefully ) align with both Western US-UK-EU and alternative powers like India while respecting both?

I usually like your stuff but in this instance, you seem to miss a lot of wider considerations, no offence meant.

Don't get me wrong. India does trust France because of their historical support to India during the tough times when no other country has supported her. But there is strong apprehensiveness in Indian circles after the Mistral collapse.

If they can't differentiate between hegemonic Russia and emerging India as nations & associated behaviour,
nor between Putin and Modi as men and so don't get we can act accordingly depending on case ...
honestly, it's their problem; I just don't care! I'm a no trust no deal type of person anyway; suits me fine!

The ball is clearly in the French court to demonstrate to the world that France is back on the block with it's Independent foreign policy. Until then people would no longer take French seriously.

Then don't! Stick by your appraisal! We can't be taken seriously? Just dump us! We'll then sell to China ...
and respect that deal unlike the Slavic one How would that help Bharat is beyond me though!


No hard feelings, Dadeechi buddy but that opinion is so full of holes and apparently skin-deep / allergic reaction
over reasoned analysis that I could not answer nicer. I really hope an aspirin and a nap will fix it!

Sorry for that exchange, Tay.

 

[dadeechi]

No, but there was one for the EU as group. India is not part of a union with similar weight and obligations
so that you may not get this part. The EU interplay is complex. If we sell invasion type ships to a nation
that has an an on-going military interference in a case scenario that frightens allies ( Baltic states ),
we disappoint partners in a Europe that we'd want more autonomous on such matters.
- Build a Europe of defence, we're saying ... while we make cash arming your enemies!
It was political ruin to press on.




And as I said, we offered a way out : we suspended ( temporize if you will ) delivery first!
We said to Putin, if you stop helping in Donbass, we'll resume the contract. The Crimean nab
was not even challenged in that option.
He said : Russia does what it wants, flock the world! instead.



Yes, after what I described above!




Wrong! Very wrong! France's Independent policy has been on the rise anew since 1994 ( see if you know why? ).

Check who was tasked autonomously and outside Blue Helmets mandates by the UN in fixing conflicts!

Who put the veto down to America concerning Iraq 2003 but still came to help the Iraqi government today?

Who refused NATO article 5 and activated 42.7 of the EU foreign policy council instead? And why?

Who can ( usefully ) align with both Western US-UK-EU and alternative powers like India while respecting both?

I usually like your stuff but in this instance, you seem to miss a lot of wider considerations, no offence meant.




If they can't differentiate between hegemonic Russia and emerging India as nations & associated behaviour,
nor between Putin and Modi as men and so don't get we can act accordingly depending on case ...
honestly, it's their problem; I just don't care! I'm a no trust no deal type of person anyway; suits me fine!



Then don't! Stick by your appraisal! We can't be taken seriously? Just dump us! We'll then sell to China ...
and respect that deal unlike the Slavic one How would that help Bharat is beyond me though!


No hard feelings, Dadeechi buddy but that opinion is so full of holes and apparently skin-deep / allergic reaction
over reasoned analysis that I could not answer nicer. I really hope an aspirin and a nap will fix it!

Sorry for that exchange, Tay.

The key question is, was the Mistral fiasco due EU or NATO? You seem to indicate that it is due to EU but the world at large believes it to be due to NATO. If Russia was opposed to EU's economic integration why would it lay so many pipelines to supply gas to EU. Russia even desired to be part of EU like rest of the former Warsaw pact countries but EU did not entertain her request.

http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/bridges/news/russia-aiming-for-wto-eu-membership

Offering a work around does not demonstrate independent policy. After the 1998 nuclear tests even US offered proposals to remove the sanctions on India.

So if India goes for another thermonuclear test you seem to indicate that apart from US, France would also offer a way out. How does that help from India's perspective? If US & France act the same way what is the incentive for India in engaging both of them?

The only reason India is rapidly moving towards the west is due to increased Chinese influence in Russia. India can no longer count on Russia for support. But after the Mistral fiasco, India realized that it cannot rely on France either.

India is truly in a very dire situation with no major power supporting it today. Hence it is diversifying the business to as many countries as possible to mitigate the risk.

Unfortunately, the more I respond the more it seems like I am against US or France. Nothing can be further from the truth.

 

[Taygibay]

No, I don't think you are anti-anything due to your stance, mate!
I simply think that this is entirely wrong and not the view of GoI :

But after the Mistral fiasco, India realized that it cannot rely on France either.

Again, if what you write above was true, why pick Rafale when MMRCA was dead anyhow?
Did Modi not know when he came to Paris how the Mistrals' sale had unfolded?
If everyone agrees to your point, what of Egypt and Qatar? Idiots I suppose?
Heck, we signed an agreement with Moscow solving the financial dispute you know?
And the Russians wisely jumped on the chance to sell Ka-52s to Cairo?

The impression that could appear of anti-whatever is simply due to your position being erroneous ...
and thus untenable! If your desist from it, the sky will clear up, promised!

Peace out buddy, no one is angry at you, Tay.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Taygibay @Vauban @Abingdonboy @cerberus @anant_s @halloweene

I am hearing some strange buzz..
See Rafale initially went with M88-2 before switching to M88-4E which helped in improve reliability and serviceability by modifications to the high-pressure compressor and turbine.
M88-2/4E comes with standard 50 kN (5,100 kgp / 11,240 lbf) dry thrust and 75 kN (7,645 kgp / 16,860 lbf).

But in between Safran also made one more variant called M88-3 which needed a larger air intake but which would have 90 kN (9,175 kgp / ~20,000 lbf) after burning thrust but new intakes can be retrofitted to older aircraft with little difficulty.
The fuel consumption it seems remained same but serviceability and reliability was same as M88-2 but below M88-4E

What M88-3 is touted with a new compressor and a variable stage, reducing fuel consumption. The M88-3, initially designated M88 ECO, can be operated at two ratings, 20,000 and 17,000 lbs of thrust. The lower thrust rating is provided to increase mean time between overhauls and to reduce parts wear.

Now comes the "magical part"
The Safran team has said that with almost same equivalent reliability of M88-4E and meantimes between overhauls plus lower wear and tear, a new compressor can be introduced in M88-4E using the knowledge gained from M88-3 program.

The result is around 85-86 Kn after burn thrust but with same SFC as 4E. This implies 13%-14% increase in thrust without compromising in SFC/Fuel consumption and does not require a air intake widening.

This is the customized version offered to India and thus requires the cream of development cost in customization.

The result of course is DA along with French government asking for a clear cut big order confirmation and GOI/MOD saying possible under MII.

The twist now:
The new India specific engine negotiations began last July/August 2015 and needed a total of 28-30 months of development time. IAF when it was told this development insisted they want this engine right from first Rafale and thus this customization became part of flyaway deal. The earlier cost was pegged at almost Euro 3.5-4Bn for this new engine but now with both governments agreeing, the cost is approximated at Euro 0.95 Bn -1 Bn.

This is probably why the first Rafale delivery with new engines will begin at around 30-36 months from contract signage.

 

[halloweene]

You are rubbing salt in my wounds !!!

I am hurt !!!

Sodium Chloride --- XXXXX

At least gift me something better..

Ammonium chloride + sugar +peroxyde + nitrous oxdye (so as to absorb water) would fit you?

@Taygibay @Vauban @Abingdonboy @cerberus @anant_s @halloweene

I am hearing some strange buzz..
See Rafale initially went with M88-2 before switching to M88-4E which helped in improve reliability and serviceability by modifications to the high-pressure compressor and turbine.
M88-2/4E comes with standard 50 kN (5,100 kgp / 11,240 lbf) dry thrust and 75 kN (7,645 kgp / 16,860 lbf).

But in between Safran also made one more variant called M88-3 which needed a larger air intake but which would have 90 kN (9,175 kgp / ~20,000 lbf) after burning thrust but new intakes can be retrofitted to older aircraft with little difficulty.
The fuel consumption it seems remained same but serviceability and reliability was same as M88-2 but below M88-4E

What M88-3 is touted with a new compressor and a variable stage, reducing fuel consumption. The M88-3, initially designated M88 ECO, can be operated at two ratings, 20,000 and 17,000 lbs of thrust. The lower thrust rating is provided to increase mean time between overhauls and to reduce parts wear.

Now comes the "magical part"
The Safran team has said that with almost same equivalent reliability of M88-4E and meantimes between overhauls plus lower wear and tear, a new compressor can be introduced in M88-4E using the knowledge gained from M88-3 program.

The result is around 85-86 Kn after burn thrust but with same SFC as 4E. This implies 13%-14% increase in thrust without compromising in SFC/Fuel consumption and does not require a air intake widening.

This is the customized version offered to India and thus requires the cream of development cost in customization.

The result of course is DA along with French government asking for a clear cut big order confirmation and GOI/MOD saying possible under MII.

The twist now:
The new India specific engine negotiations began last July/August 2015 and needed a total of 28-30 months of development time. IAF when it was told this development insisted they want this engine right from first Rafale and thus this customization became part of flyaway deal. The earlier cost was pegged at almost Euro 3.5-4Bn for this new engine but now with both governments agreeing, the cost is approximated at Euro 0.95 Bn -1 Bn.

This is probably why the first Rafale delivery with new engines will begin at around 30-36 months from contract signage.

AFAIK using new engine hotparts. No clue

 

[Taygibay]

As far as is being discussed around ( I.E. truth value impossible to weigh but not outlandish ),

_forget the full trust of the 9T M-88 because that includes a re-design of front-central part and the
fluid shape of that bird should not be touched_

_but yes add some advances the program provided and induce them to existing original M-88s to
gain +-11% thrust without other changes maintaining relatively iso-ECO standards and so TCO./

The idea is rumoured to be emanating from Safran, tiens, tiens! and is a valid point if proven by which
an OEM maker meliorates its offer inside the lifetime use of one its product hoping to recoup through
the added value of the replacement kits some unpaid prospective development funding.
I don't see a problem if it comes to pass as it is this rarest of birds nowadays, a good MIC move ... but
don't expect a short-time table like 6 months.
If you mean will India profit from it, the answer is almost certainly yes considering the 24-36 months window
of the present-future deal especially if it is already understood that numbers are to be added to later ...

& the work to kit the upgrade on or near the 2 planned IAF Rafale centres might be part of Safran's offsets?

My hope is that it forces our Prez/Assemblée/MinDef to have it retro-mounted on the whole Fr fleet!
Go Safran, go!

Great evening PariK, Halloweene & all, Tay.

 

[anant_s]

interesting information @PARIKRAMA
i wish to know how they have improved reliability. Is it by increasing Mean Time Between Failure and thereby reducing (as they call in our part of world) Return back to Maintenance Depot frequecy.
Also any info on how much time is required for schedule maintenance.
All these factors influence the flying cost and ultimately impact life cycle cost.
With news that India is demanding high availability, these things assume importance.
@Taygibay @halloweene @Abingdonboy @Vauban

 

[Oracle 33]

I don't expect either side to go into "sulking mode", but I do see this deal as a litmus test and evidence of the fork in the road India has now come to. I think we can all agree that if India signs for 36 Rafales, it is effectively signing up for >150 and this is a HUGE commitment and would signal a strategic shift of India. This would open up a lot of other strategic avenues for India and France to commit to ie SSNs, aircraft carriers, 5th gen fighters, UCAVs etc etc.

If India doubles down and goes with Russia (FGFA in lieu of the Rafale) then the scope for deeper cooperation with France in parrell is severely negated.


I don't think Modi has invest much politcal capital in this relationship either- foreign policy of GoIs (outside of Pakistan/China) is basically ignored by the Indian media/polical establishment. BUT, I think, personally, Modi has invested a lot in the Indo-French relationship. Smart cities and the solar alliance are both "pet" projects of his and are two areas France is workign with India deeply and as an aside, the largest single loco buy (infrastructure related) in India's recent histroy went to France (Alstom).

I don't see any of this as a coincidence, Modi is well known as being a "hands on" leader who personally monitors infrastrucutre projects through the PMO, it would have been his nod that greenlit all of the above, and who did he choose? France.

Taking this "France vs Russia" discussion further, let's look at the Jaitpur plant. Every single non-Russian reactor made in India is a snub to Russia and their counter-offers, the Russians have offered to deliver all N-reactors to India that it could need but the fact that the GoI has now agreed on setting up the world's largest nuclear power station with FRANCE and not Russia is pretty telling in itself. 6 reactors in one go is more than Russia has secured with India.

What deals has Russia recieved or offered in comparison in the past 20 months? Outside of the Ka-226T deal I am really scratching my head.

This is a pretty clear indication of where ties are headed IMHO...

You underestimate the crucial energy deals that have been struck in the last 6 months between India and Russia. Do not forget Russia has the raw materials we need and something France can never provide.

 

[Nilgiri]

You underestimate the crucial energy deals that have been struck in the last 6 months between India and Russia.

Why exactly have they been stuck? Pricing (due to massive decrease in prices)?

 

[Oracle 33]

Why exactly have they been stuck? Pricing (due to massive decrease in prices)?

Negotiations take time, the buyer wants the best deal and the seller to make the most profit that is the business world. What you are seeing now is the final phase in pricing and each side wants the best deal.

 

[Nilgiri]

Negotiations take time, the buyer wants the best deal and the seller to make the most profit that is the business world. What you are seeing now is the final phase in pricing and each side wants the best deal.

Yes but right now energy is a buyers market. So India can afford to let such deals drag on longer than Russia can (which has lost almost half of its GDP in dollar terms because of the energy price crunch). I guess lets wait and see. Do you have any links for the estimated size of these deals?