Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[dadeechi]

Typhoon is costlier
F18, 16, gripen all not sanction proof .
Rafale is costly but I guess it's sanction proof.

Regarding the pace of current deal, I think negotiations are overlapping with make in India part too..
Like the modifications needed..

Let me play devil's advocate

India is signing DTTI and tons of deals are being planned between India & US as part of that agreement.

Tejas' and AMCA engines are also going to be from US

So why would US not be sanction proof in case of F-16, F-18 or F-35s?

Also, France can no longer be considered a reliable sanction proof supplier after the Russian Mistral disaster.

The way I see it is India is diversifying the fighters across three different countries knowing that none of them would be sanction proof. The diversification may mitigate the sanctions, assuming all three countries do not pounce on India at the same time.

TEJAS, AMCA, F-35C - US

RAFALE and RAFALE-M - France

MIG-29K, SU30MKI & FGFA - Russia

@PARIKRAMA the biggest disappointment is not amount of money being spent but lack of ToT on Engine tech from Safran in spite of the colossal deal being negotiated.

 

[C130]

Irrelevent. It's like saying, the Rafale cost 100 times more than a Cessna so just get the Cessna. Only 2 products met the 600+ requirements- Typhoon and Rafale, end of story. Bringing in products that didn't meet the criteria is a slippery slope.

And the 2-3 times figure you are quoting is pure conjecture, we have no idea at this point what the true cost to the IAF will be, I'm still expecting a price that is not too dissimilar to what the FrAF are paying for their Rafales.

comparing a fighter jet to a Cessna IMO is a bad analogy

 

[Raftaar]

Bhai log........is jahaaz mein aisa kya daal diya hai ???? i mean 11 billion is shit loads of money......m no economist but it sounds absurd.....French ki to nikal padi

 

[PARIKRAMA]

 

[Taygibay]

Also, France can no longer be considered a reliable sanction proof supplier after the Russian Mistral disaster.

Whoa! Keep calm and have a sip of context, Dadeechi my friend!

We stopped the delivery only after asking the client to stop attacking a rather neutral autonomous country
on our common continent, offering a provision to re-activate the deal once this happened!
Moscow chose to hunt for Mariupol instead; so not our circus anymore?
You have nothing that compares on your continent. Think Japan refusing to sell you a signed deal mil ship
because Dehli invaded Malaysia, incredibly hypothetical but somewhat in the same category.

The problem in that deal was present from inception, mate : Trying to sell a high value asset for expeditionary
warfare to a non-ally ex-opponent with a proven record of invasion to helpless neighbours!
Our NATO allies had griped about it as soon as it was revealed, before it was signed!
Had those Mistrals been for India, that they'd have paraded on Republic day decked in Orange and Green!
HUH? m'well, not down the avenue but you get the idea ...

Good day all, Tay.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

+++
Buzz in the air from Source (take it with pinch of salt)

• Russia's influential folks had a talk with MOD/GOI.
• Goodies on offer includes a much bigger carrot named FGFA
• A deeper probability of certain tech from FGFA into two programs - Super Upgrade and domestic 5th Gen program AMCA
• Goodies also includes other aspects including Black projects (SSN design and reactor help.. word being used Low cost Yasen)
• The indication given by Russia is "Dont go to France we will give you everything. Look we have brought down price of every item you have enquired. and these are the additional stuff we want you to think about"
• DM have briefed the PM.
• Action plan proposed for Rafale Deal seems to be
  • Play this as a ace card against France
  • The escalation clause demanded by Dassault (not French Government) from MMRCA timeline of 2007-08 be completely negated.
  • The base year becomes 2015 bcz of the new deal initiation from April 2015
  • So India says no escalation to any price and same as Fr AF (without VAT)
  • This keeps the price at Euro 3.5-4Bn including weapons
  • Weapon packages will be further trimmed down. Read negligible or no Meteors now but later in 2018+
  • The support, spares, infrastructure, training etc package quoted at approx Euro 5Bn is being reviewed to trim down.
  • Spare usage is estimated at 5% of aircraft cost per years so basically an indicative price at flyaway of approx Euro 62 Mn implies spare for 5 years at 15.5 Mn versus 10 years 31 Mn per jet
  • For 36 jets this translates to Euro 550 Mn
  • A single base of operations, associated infrastructure set up and Spares for just 5 years upfront saves almost Euro 1.3-1.5 Bn
  • The customized version costs of approximate Euro 2 Bn is again reviewed to see what can be reduced
• Political will discussion
  • India will finally say what the final price expectation for just 36 jets
  • If its good enough 18 follow on will be sealed.
  • If the costs and offsets and plan for MII is seriously agreed in the form of offset implementation then GOI will agree for Rafale deal for a total of 200+ in MII.
  • If there is no mutual agreement, political will is being made to KILL RAFALE DEAL PERMANENTLY.
• A final phone call is expected from PM NaMo to Prez Hollande outlining what India expects.
• French government so far has agreed to every term that India has requested especially bcz India has clearly said requirement of 200+
• The problem seems to be Dassault who does not want large volume based profit making and is concentrating on small deal large margins especially bcz of escalation clause use from 2007-08.

+++

@Vauban @Abingdonboy @Taygibay @anant_s
Interesting turn of events. Dont know but seems this is getting to final action sequence of the moving.. Will it happy ending or major break up? Interesting times coming up..

 

[Abingdonboy]

+++
Buzz in the air from Source (take it with pinch of salt)

• Russia's influential folks had a talk with MOD/GOI.
• Goodies on offer includes a much bigger carrot named FGFA
• A deeper probability of certain tech from FGFA into two programs - Super Upgrade and domestic 5th Gen program AMCA
• Goodies also includes other aspects including Black projects (SSN design and reactor help.. word being used Low cost Yasen)
• The indication given by Russia is "Dont go to France we will give you everything. Look we have brought down price of every item you have enquired. and these are the additional stuff we want you to think about"
• DM have briefed the PM.
• Action plan proposed for Rafale Deal seems to be
  • Play this as a ace card against France
  • The escalation clause demanded by Dassault (not French Government) from MMRCA timeline of 2007-08 be completely negated.
  • The base year becomes 2015 bcz of the new deal initiation from April 2015
  • So India says no escalation to any price and same as Fr AF (without VAT)
  • This keeps the price at Euro 3.5-4Bn including weapons
  • Weapon packages will be further trimmed down. Read negligible or no Meteors now but later in 2018+
  • The support, spares, infrastructure, training etc package quoted at approx Euro 5Bn is being reviewed to trim down.
  • Spare usage is estimated at 5% of aircraft cost per years so basically an indicative price at flyaway of approx Euro 62 Mn implies spare for 5 years at 15.5 Mn versus 10 years 31 Mn per jet
  • For 36 jets this translates to Euro 550 Mn
  • A single base of operations, associated infrastructure set up and Spares for just 5 years upfront saves almost Euro 1.3-1.5 Bn
  • The customized version costs of approximate Euro 2 Bn is again reviewed to see what can be reduced
• Political will discussion
  • India will finally say what the final price expectation for just 36 jets
  • If its good enough 18 follow on will be sealed.
  • If the costs and offsets and plan for MII is seriously agreed in the form of offset implementation then GOI will agree for Rafale deal for a total of 200+ in MII.
  • If there is no mutual agreement, political will is being made to KILL RAFALE DEAL PERMANENTLY.
• A final phone call is expected from PM NaMo to Prez Hollande outlining what India expects.
• French government so far has agreed to every term that India has requested especially bcz India has clearly said requirement of 200+
• The problem seems to be Dassault who does not want large volume based profit making and is concentrating on small deal large margins especially bcz of escalation clause use from 2007-08.

+++

@Vauban @Abingdonboy @Taygibay @anant_s
Interesting turn of events. Dont know but seems this is getting to final action sequence of the moving.. Will it happy ending or major break up? Interesting times coming up..

So it's a case of France vs Russia and either 200+ Rafales or 0?


I can't help but feel this is a game Russia is going to lose. Hollande was just in India and the future Indo-French stratgic relationship is looking incredibly bright and that too outside of defence (AREVA/Jaitpur plant, Alstom loco deal, investment in Smart cities and co-leadership in the solar alliance). Where is Russia in comparison? Almost non-existent in the Indian market with strategic deals stumbling from one issue to another (FGFA and MRTA) and on the commerical front almost nothing -2 more reactors for Kudankulam being the exception but dwarfed by the Jaitpur plant where Areva will set up 6 reactors in one go and make the plant the largest ever created.

Both India and France are going to look spectacuarly foolish if their relationship collapses now with so much new found momentum being built up. I just don't see it happening if I am honest- both sides and both leaders have far too much invested in the relationship for such an implosion to take place now.

I just can't shake the feeling that France has this in the bag- Dassualt just needs to get in line and surely the French Government has enough control over it to make it so? @Vauban @Taygibay

Will it happy ending or major break up? Interesting times coming up..

Some one is going to have to be dropped, there is no way all sides (France, Russia and India) get what they want if what you are saying is true. Russia is playing a high stakes zero sum game but this strategy looks like it is typical of Putin's overreaches and a major miscalculation has taken place because I no longer see Russia as the defacto strategic partner India should maintain ties with. France can and should take this position- if the French side is able to see this oppurtunity for what it is and grab it with both hands.

 

[45'22']

+++
Buzz in the air from Source (take it with pinch of salt)

• Russia's influential folks had a talk with MOD/GOI.
• Goodies on offer includes a much bigger carrot named FGFA
• A deeper probability of certain tech from FGFA into two programs - Super Upgrade and domestic 5th Gen program AMCA
• Goodies also includes other aspects including Black projects (SSN design and reactor help.. word being used Low cost Yasen)
• The indication given by Russia is "Dont go to France we will give you everything. Look we have brought down price of every item you have enquired. and these are the additional stuff we want you to think about"
• DM have briefed the PM.
• Action plan proposed for Rafale Deal seems to be
  • Play this as a ace card against France
  • The escalation clause demanded by Dassault (not French Government) from MMRCA timeline of 2007-08 be completely negated.
  • The base year becomes 2015 bcz of the new deal initiation from April 2015
  • So India says no escalation to any price and same as Fr AF (without VAT)
  • This keeps the price at Euro 3.5-4Bn including weapons
  • Weapon packages will be further trimmed down. Read negligible or no Meteors now but later in 2018+
  • The support, spares, infrastructure, training etc package quoted at approx Euro 5Bn is being reviewed to trim down.
  • Spare usage is estimated at 5% of aircraft cost per years so basically an indicative price at flyaway of approx Euro 62 Mn implies spare for 5 years at 15.5 Mn versus 10 years 31 Mn per jet
  • For 36 jets this translates to Euro 550 Mn
  • A single base of operations, associated infrastructure set up and Spares for just 5 years upfront saves almost Euro 1.3-1.5 Bn
  • The customized version costs of approximate Euro 2 Bn is again reviewed to see what can be reduced
• Political will discussion
  • India will finally say what the final price expectation for just 36 jets
  • If its good enough 18 follow on will be sealed.
  • If the costs and offsets and plan for MII is seriously agreed in the form of offset implementation then GOI will agree for Rafale deal for a total of 200+ in MII.
  • If there is no mutual agreement, political will is being made to KILL RAFALE DEAL PERMANENTLY.
• A final phone call is expected from PM NaMo to Prez Hollande outlining what India expects.
• French government so far has agreed to every term that India has requested especially bcz India has clearly said requirement of 200+
• The problem seems to be Dassault who does not want large volume based profit making and is concentrating on small deal large margins especially bcz of escalation clause use from 2007-08.

+++

@Vauban @Abingdonboy @Taygibay @anant_s
Interesting turn of events. Dont know but seems this is getting to final action sequence of the moving.. Will it happy ending or major break up? Interesting times coming up..

I hope we arent ditching anybody

 

[[Bregs]]

+++
Buzz in the air from Source (take it with pinch of salt)

• Russia's influential folks had a talk with MOD/GOI.
• Goodies on offer includes a much bigger carrot named FGFA
• A deeper probability of certain tech from FGFA into two programs - Super Upgrade and domestic 5th Gen program AMCA
• Goodies also includes other aspects including Black projects (SSN design and reactor help.. word being used Low cost Yasen)
• The indication given by Russia is "Dont go to France we will give you everything. Look we have brought down price of every item you have enquired. and these are the additional stuff we want you to think about"
• DM have briefed the PM.
• Action plan proposed for Rafale Deal seems to be
  • Play this as a ace card against France
  • The escalation clause demanded by Dassault (not French Government) from MMRCA timeline of 2007-08 be completely negated.
  • The base year becomes 2015 bcz of the new deal initiation from April 2015
  • So India says no escalation to any price and same as Fr AF (without VAT)
  • This keeps the price at Euro 3.5-4Bn including weapons
  • Weapon packages will be further trimmed down. Read negligible or no Meteors now but later in 2018+
  • The support, spares, infrastructure, training etc package quoted at approx Euro 5Bn is being reviewed to trim down.
  • Spare usage is estimated at 5% of aircraft cost per years so basically an indicative price at flyaway of approx Euro 62 Mn implies spare for 5 years at 15.5 Mn versus 10 years 31 Mn per jet
  • For 36 jets this translates to Euro 550 Mn
  • A single base of operations, associated infrastructure set up and Spares for just 5 years upfront saves almost Euro 1.3-1.5 Bn
  • The customized version costs of approximate Euro 2 Bn is again reviewed to see what can be reduced
• Political will discussion
  • India will finally say what the final price expectation for just 36 jets
  • If its good enough 18 follow on will be sealed.
  • If the costs and offsets and plan for MII is seriously agreed in the form of offset implementation then GOI will agree for Rafale deal for a total of 200+ in MII.
  • If there is no mutual agreement, political will is being made to KILL RAFALE DEAL PERMANENTLY.
• A final phone call is expected from PM NaMo to Prez Hollande outlining what India expects.
• French government so far has agreed to every term that India has requested especially bcz India has clearly said requirement of 200+
• The problem seems to be Dassault who does not want large volume based profit making and is concentrating on small deal large margins especially bcz of escalation clause use from 2007-08.

+++

@Vauban @Abingdonboy @Taygibay @anant_s
Interesting turn of events. Dont know but seems this is getting to final action sequence of the moving.. Will it happy ending or major break up? Interesting times coming up..

well the govt of india is prepared to wait much longer if dassault did not fall in life for the price and base rate of aircraft say year 2015. Its nota couple of billion $ deal its largest deal india is making

so if talks got stuck again, then india might start looking for other alternatives pending these 36+18 aircrafts till there is a viable solution

 

[Abingdonboy]

I hope we arent ditching anybody

This is the big boys table- at some point you have to start making hard choices and there will be casulaties. It is unreasonable to expect to keep everyone on your side when all nations are working for their own, often divergent, interests.

 

[Nilgiri]

Both India and France are going to look spectacuarly foolish if their relationship collapses now with so much new found momentum being built up.

Indo-French relationship does not hinge on the Rafales. Indian market (in general) especially is too large for that....and the relationship goes too far back as well.

Any BARC scientist or engineer worth his salt will tell you just how crucial the French role is in miniaturising and militarising India's nuclear reactor design for example.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Indo-French relationship does not hinge on the Rafales. Indian market (in general) especially is too large for that....and the relationship goes too far back as well.

Of course, but it DOES have huge strategic implications. Mr Hollande made it clear that the Rafale's sale to India was a strategic deal and showcased the Indo-French deepening of ties. After both sides have placed so much emphasis on the Rafale deal specifically (Mr Hollande must have mentioned it 5-6 times during his remarks in the joint press conference with Modi) and the IGA has been announced, no Rafale deal now would be a consdierable dent to all future Indo-French strategic deals. This is a fact.

It's for this reason, I don't see the French backing down now- had the IGA not been signed I could see it but Hollande has put his cards on the table and he is behind the Rafale deal, Russia is going to lose this game and they are going to lose BIG. Think about the diveregence in reporting vis a vis strategic deals with India and Russia/France in the past few months, France has overwhelminginly hogged the limelight with a swathe of strategic deals being clinched, what has Russia got? The Ka-226s? All the hype before Modi's visit to Russia resulted in excatly ZERO strategic deals- no FGFA, no MRTA, no SSN, not even the Talwars.

India is playing Russia and France against each other and it is heading for a conclusion, Russia is now said to have revised (downwards) the FGFA's cost for India and France is still working on the Rafale price.

There's something brewing between India and Russia and it's not going to be pretty, this is a divorce that has been long overdue.

@PARIKRAMA @Levina @Parul @Vauban

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Of course, but it DOES have huge strategic implications. Mr Hollande made it clear that the Rafale's sale to India was a strategic deal and showcased the Indo-French deepening of ties. After both sides have placed so much emphasis on the Rafale deal specifically (Mr Hollande must have mentioned it 5-6 times during his remarks in the joint press conference with Modi) and the IGA has been announced, no Rafale deal now would be a consdierable dent to all future Indo-French strategic deals. This is a fact.

It's for this reason, I don't see the French backing down now- had the IGA not been signed I could see it but Hollande has put his cards on the table and he is behind the Rafale deal, Russia is going to lose this game and they are going to lose BIG. Think about the diveregence in reporting vis a vis strategic deals with India and Russia/France in the past few months, France has overwhelminginly hogged the limelight with a swathe of strategic deals being clinched, what has Russia got? The Ka-226s? All the hype before Modi's visit to Russia resulted in excatly ZERO strategic deals- no FGFA, no MRTA, no SSN, not even the Talwars.

India is playing Russia and France against each other and it is heading for a conclusion, Russia is now said to have revised (downwards) the FGFA's cost for India and France is still working on the Rafale price.

There's something brewing between India and Russia and it's not going to be pretty, this is a divorce that has been long overdue.

@PARIKRAMA @Levina @Parul @Vauban

TBH even today when i had talked with source and the supply chain folks, the source news seems to suggest India wants to lock in a price with which it can go for first a flyaway deal and second a humongous MII deal.

If you see a basic math, assume the flyaway cost at 700 crs all loaded then its just 700x36 = Rs 25200 Crs or Euro 3.5 Bn

but see this whats the potential here
200 rafales at 550 Crs
200 x550 = Rs 1,10,000 crs or Euro 15.27 Bn

Spares consumed at 5% per year per jet under MII = 5% of 500 instead of 550 = Rs 25 Crs

So for 40 years its 25 x 40 x 200 = 2,00,000 Crs = Euro 27.78 Bn

I am not even considering weapons, training, upgrades etc ect

So take two figures and see how much basically MII pays Dassault, French economy (dassault pays taxes and also emplyees would be constantly exchanged on deputation) , OEMs, Supply chain folks and they paying taxes to French government.
Those 2 figures are 15.27+27.78 = Euro 43 Bn
You add more things and the figure will reach around Euro 50-55 Bn
Now Euro 45 Bn was the whole cost of Rafale development

Thats how strategic it is for everyone.
True we are playing both countries to get the best deal. But fact remains unless someone really does some nasty back stabbing, France should be able to convince Dassault and get them to follow the official line.

Personally i would rather want AMCA to have a not just FGFA tech but also Rafale tech. and for that FGFA if it comes HAL is there. But if Rafale does not come AMCA wont get that tech, reactor tech wont come, Barracuda tech wont come to SSN program, LCA Navy program gets delayed with no one helping us solve under carriage issues ad smart cities, investments and what not...

So its a golden egg laying goose.. don kill it .. simple..

 

[Taygibay]

Can someone help me move those 200 50kg bags of sodium chloride in Parik's garage, Please?



Tay.

P.S.

India is playing Russia and France against each other and it is heading for a conclusion,

Yup, it will end up forced to buy either ... once the other gives up.

When you ask for a friend's price and get it and then ask for cost and get it and then ask ...
you eventually end up with a laugh in your face and nothing in your hands.

There is a limit to any negotiation if the transaction seems out of reach.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Can someone help me move those 200 50kg bags of sodium chloride in Parik's garage, Please?

You are rubbing salt in my wounds !!!

I am hurt !!!

Sodium Chloride --- XXXXX

At least gift me something better..