Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[sathya]

Yes both these points look logical for sure..


Yes thats also a good solid catch. Besides strategic role, if Harpoon customization or AshM customization is being done then we are looking at Rafale taking over the shore based patrol roles or Maritime Strike roles too.

Now that changes the whole playing field. Till now we have talked about Strategic, DPSA and TASA. A maritime strike role or Shore based patrolling roles over seas indicates the large number fleet

Harpoon integration better to do it with a naval Rafale M ?
Could be used with shore and carriers ?

Why IAF getting it integrated instead of navy ?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Harpoon integration better to do it with a naval Rafale M ?
Could be used with shore and carriers ?

Why IAF getting it integrated instead of navy ?

At the moment shore patrolling is done by IAF.
For Rafale M to come online for this or any other variant in future, IN has to be allowed to do shore patrolling and maritime strike role. For the time being its IAF who is suppose to do it.

Perhaps yes, as we are looking at carrier based Rafale M, this paves way for a common integration for the whole fleet across the board.

Ok again after much haggling the source he uttered some weird stuff.. Take it with pinch of salt

• Rafale will carry 3 new smaller versions of Brahmos or Brahmos NG
• Antishipping role/maritime strike/shore patrol because we will use Harpoon/Brahmos combo
• HMD - Its going to be a kind people have not imagined. Talks are for something like Dash IV with some features derived from HMD from F35. Offer for Dash III already there
• The larger sum is suppose to be for Snecma M88 variant not being used as of now.

Considering the word used - Snecma M88 variant not being used. The present Sncema is M88-4E. It may indicate a new variant with may be more thrust like 5-10% additional may be.

That may be the reason for the higher cost.

 

[sathya]

At the moment shore patrolling is done by IAF.
For Rafale M to come online for this or any other variant in future, IN has to be allowed to do shore patrolling and maritime strike role. For the time being its IAF who is suppose to do it.

Perhaps yes, as we are looking at carrier based Rafale M, this paves way for a common integration for the whole fleet across the board.

Ok again after much haggling the source he uttered some weird stuff.. Take it with pinch of salt

• Rafale will carry 3 new smaller versions of Brahmos or Brahmos NG
• Antishipping role/maritime strike/shore patrol because we will use Harpoon/Brahmos combo
• HMD - Its going to be a kind people have not imagined. Talks are for something like Dash IV with some features derived from HMD from F35. Offer for Dash III already there
• The larger sum is suppose to be for Snecma M88 variant not being used as of now.

Considering the word used - Snecma M88 variant not being used. The present Sncema is M88-4E. It may indicate a new variant with may be more thrust like 5-10% additional may be.

That may be the reason for the higher cost.

It's amazing how you get so much Infos.

Whether it turn out to be true or not, it's damn interesting ..

 

[PARIKRAMA]

It's amazing how you get so much Infos.

Whether it turn out to be true or not, it's damn interesting ..

I will get my share of brickbats too...
Supposing if things go bad or say rafale does nt get MII in India or price comes out really high as components like i divided based on source is not revealed, most probably all will bash me here..

Unfortunately, i see too many risks in everything. Rafale line is a necessity borne out of sheer bad luck and terrible planning at political level.

I see great potential but then dont know how our GOI could make it work. Imagine a scenario where 5th technology from PAKFA Stage 2/FGFA + 4.75 or 4.5+++ technology from Rafale + Israeli Tech = AMCA (IAF variant + Naval)

Avoid GE engines and you get a voila product. Sanction proof, best of the east and west.

Thats why i see Rafale is so so much strategic. The assembling and supply chain localisation in a decade along with FGFA MII part these two actions puts us on pinnacle of 4th gen tech based MIC and 5th Gen tech based MIC. This product combination paves way for a impressive MIC development.

The biggest side benefit will come to another product line. The LCA MKXX series. the upgraded MIC will enable developing LCA further.

There would be hiccups on this. No country particularly competitors wont like India to pursue this path. They will create problems for France and Russia for such projects with us.

An example is the 3 agreements with USA (LSA, CISMOA, BECA) all will slowly tie us up with USA products via which our own projects like AMCA will be hijacked and will be slowly replaced with their MIC products.

So GOI once has started walking this path must be firm and not get pressurized or sucked up by any attempts to slow us down or tone down our strategic relationship with France.

 

[Nilgiri]

If you consider from Flyaway price then life cycle cost is 3 X multiple of flyaway cost.

OK I have heard anywhere from between 2.5X to 3X. I guess like you stated it depends a lot on the final order size beyond these 36 given shared use of maintenance infra etc.

Thanks for your analysis. Lets see how it all goes down.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Huh?

Wasn't the original MMRCA deal 126 Rafale for $11 billion?

Now the cost is the same, but India is only getting 35 Rafale?

 

[Nilgiri]

Wasn't the original MMRCA deal 126 Rafale for $11 billion?

That was only airframes + some included basic weaponry. Not including combined total Life cycle costs which you would need to multiply by 2.5 - 3 times.

 

[Dungeness]

That was only airframes + some included basic weaponry. Not including combined total Life cycle costs which you would need to multiply by 2.5 - 3 times.

Was that not considered in the original 126 proposal?

 

[Blue Marlin]

I like the Rafales, It's a great platform, but yes the french are completely taking India for a ride with this.

This Product life cycle cost estimates submitted by mfg and evaluated by IAF has no relevance at all. A product's life cycle cost in france is very different from it's life cycle cost in India. and IAF by no means has the expertise or the experience to evaluate life cycle costs.

I have long said, that we should have gotten out of the MMRCA and just focused on additional MKI's and maybe bought two to three squadrons of Mig35 or even the Mig29K which really are the true successors to the Mig29M.
But this issue i think was complicated by lack of confidence on the PMF FGFA.

The costs presented almost makes me think, f18SH could have been a good choice for the MMRCA..

yes your right, so whats the solution? in my opinion they should have played it safe and should have gone for the su35 but to india's requirements and call it the su35 mki and should build the parts in india and have a engine and overhaul and aintainance facility in india which would remove bottel necks in maintainance. this is the prefered path india should have taken.
yes americain kit does come with strings attached, just ask pakistan.
the rafale fiasco has gone for too long and its too late for india to back of now, and the french have realised this and are milking india.

 

[Nilgiri]

Was that not considered in the original 126 proposal?

It was, just the RFP and RFI always quotes the short term immediate capex/hardware costs.

Whereas this time the media has simply latched on to a figure they have heard....and people wrongly imply apples = oranges.

There is no question of the cost per actual craft inflating by this amount...even if we are looking in Rupee terms.

At most the cost for the airframe + weapons alone has went up frrom around 87 million to 100 - 120 million because of the smaller economies of scale for 36 compared to 126 (which will again settle down to the lower figure when more aircraft are ordered).

AFAIK, the actual negotiation going on right now involves how much is being added on to the original baseline cost when accounting for EURO/USD changes, extra demands from India for complete integration of various weapons modules (mostly israeli and local) along with a demand for 90% serviceability in the first 2 years....and of course offset terms and ToT levels etc.

In reverse, pretty much any of the original contenders would have been snapped up immediately by India if they offered 126 aircraft for 11 billion USD if that was the total lifecycle cost hehe. That would be less than 35 million per aircraft direct hardware....thats giving a used/reserve F-16A, chinese vanilla fighter or LCA a huge run for its money at a much higher tech level!

 

[Taygibay]

LOL KayKay, you are a charming fellow but really? Re-posting a hashtag

RAFEL???
​

Is that the same Rafel that won and then loss the MYMCA competition,
coming in first place by nose in front of the AsioBomber ( AB 2000 AKA THAIFUN )?

I know I'm a stickler for proper spelling but I'll still venture that that poor
fellow is not quite qualified?



Cheers mate! Tay.

P.S. I already don't care how repeated this news gets ( it's financing that's unresolved not price ),
the Indian media / news juicer will wring any lemon thrown at it until it's ground powder,
it's not indicative of anything!

 

[Dungeness]

It was, just the RFP and RFI always quotes the short term immediate capex/hardware costs.

Whereas this time the media has simply latched on to a figure they have heard....and people wrongly imply apples = oranges.

There is no question of the cost per actual craft inflating by this amount...even if we are looking in Rupee terms.

At most the cost for the airframe + weapons alone has went up frrom around 87 million to 100 - 120 million because of the smaller economies of scale for 36 compared to 126 (which will again settle down to the lower figure when more aircraft are ordered).

AFAIK, the actual negotiation going on right now involves how much is being added on to the original baseline cost when accounting for EURO/USD changes, extra demands from India for complete integration of various weapons modules (mostly israeli and local) along with a demand for 90% serviceability in the first 2 years....and of course offset terms and ToT levels etc.

In reverse, pretty much any of the original contenders would have been snapped up immediately by India if they offered 126 aircraft for 11 billion USD if that was the total lifecycle cost hehe. That would be less than 35 million per aircraft direct hardware....thats giving a used/reserve F-16A, chinese vanilla fighter or LCA a huge run for its money at a much higher tech level!

After Egypt and Qatar deals, French are now in a better negotiation position than they were 4 years ago. India has to fight an uphill battle. What I don't understand is Mody announced a deal of "36 Rafales in Fly Away Condition" last year, and why the "offset" is becoming an issue again?

To be honest, India should really break this cycle of purchasing-ToT-assemble-purchase, which doesn't really take you anywhere. Even the "offset" terms are met, which I think it is merely for political purpose of showing the progress of "Make In India" under Mody, it will not help India much in terms of designing and developing India's own future fighters. The cycle will continue.

India should really use its hard earned money wisely and use it on building its own R&D base, and the experience you got from LCA program will definitely have a positive impact. India spent almost 10 years making this program the "Mother of all deals" if you count the original RFI for MMRCA, and spent next 4 making it the "Mother of all no-deals". It is 14 years wasted for your defense R&D engineers and for facility building.

 

[Nilgiri]

After Egypt and Qatar deals, French are now in a better negotiation position than they were 4 years ago. India has to fight an uphill battle. What I don't understand is Mody announced a deal of "36 Rafales in Fly Away Condition" last year, and why the "offset" is becoming an issue again?

To be honest, India should really break this cycle of purchasing-ToT-assemble-purchase, which doesn't really take you anywhere. Even the "offset" terms are met, which I think it is merely for political purpose of showing the progress of "Make In India" under Mody, it will not help India much in terms of designing and developing India's own future fighters. The cycle will continue.

India should really use its hard earned money wisely and use it on building its own R&D base, and the experience you got from LCA program will definitely have a positive impact.

We will have to wait and see what the final deal's details are like before I will comment on the ToT, offset requirements.

Tbh, fighters are just one small part of overall Indian defense scenario. The most important things have already been "indigenized"... i.e missile hardware, basic material design + production, fuels + propellants, basic + middle level flight hardware/software....and promising advance in sensors, electronics, naval hardware and space systems.

Right now the operationalising of the production chain strategy for such things (where they are currently inefficient and highly monopolized) is the focus of the current govt....by bringing in large capable private firms at various levels and not having to saddle advanced multiple-source defence production with govt controlled enterprises only (like before).

I am very fine with running 2 major acquisitions for IAF concurrently, one more foreign based (Rafale), one more local based (LCA) till the dust firmly settles on the strategy for the next generation platforms....(in theory given what India is coming from and what India aspires to).

This is still after all the transition period, and it will last for a few more decades. Both blind Fanboys and extreme naysayers should not distract from the pragmatic reality and lofty goals. This year will be an interesting one....but I am certain it will not be "business as usual" as in the past....especially w.r.t production line for the LCA being set up.

 

[Vergennes]

@Nilgiri @Chinese-Dragon @Blue Marlin @PARIKRAMA @Taygibay

Why i feel 36 Rafale would be the only IAF's order. (Rest made of Tejas and SU30)
At least,those 36 will be built in France.
-
Let's wait and see for more details when deal is effectively signed.

 

[phancong]

Deal still not sign after 14 yrs of negotiation. French president show up in India and the deal still hinge on the price agreement.