CPEC another kala bagh dam ?

[Muhammad Omar]

sir ji all these projects which the government is calling as 'western route' are old projects. you can check the PSDP documents on the Planning Commission website. Work on these projects have been going on for last few years. You cant just suddenly name them CPEC projects.

Why dont you give me numbers? I have given you numbers: KPK share is only $2.5bn out of the $28bn of projects on which formal agreements have been signed. Do you think this is fair?

To sir g Eastern side pe bhi to Lahore Karachi Motorway bhi to 90's a project hai yeh new road ni hai Sindh me existing roads ko hi upgrade kr rhay hain yeh jiska name change kr k Motorway krdia hai bs

han power plants hain jo new hain wo Ager chinese Balochistan me ni bnana chahte to unki marzi hai unhn ne hi paise lagane hain wo punjab ho ya Balochistan

 

[spinghar]

Its not about subduing people of KP. I can say at least 95% of people from KP support CPEC. KPK parties who are against CPEC gained only 0.1% of the votes in KP last years and that is only set to decline. Also KP and Pakistan are one and if Pakistan loses so does KP. CPEC can only bring growth to the region and not harm, SOME elites of KP profit from keeping KP a backward state and will do anything in their power to stop progression.

Raheel Sharif shutdown one of the world's most longest and largest sit-in/protest within a minute; you think he cant stop a couple of double faced selfish politicians?

No almost 100% people from KP support CPEC, but they have their reservation. you or raheel sharif don't speak for KP, they have their assembly,and they passed consecutively two unanimously joint resolution against what they call injustice.

 

[Leviza]

sir ji all these projects which the government is calling as 'western route' are old projects. you can check the PSDP documents on the Planning Commission website. Work on these projects have been going on for last few years. You cant just suddenly name them CPEC projects.

Why dont you give me numbers? I have given you numbers: KPK share is only $2.5bn out of the $28bn of projects on which formal agreements have been signed. Do you think this is fair?

yes, where was khattak guy when these projects were discussed with china ?
hint he is in front of supreme court dancing...

 

[Benign Persona]

So Stop being a retard on this forum and start talking with facts and figure in other words randi rona mat kro

i am a retard i am doing randi rona because i ask for something for kpk and balochistan right? so you wants facts and figures so i will give you some as you are a retard and dont know anything.
1. punjab is getting 5 industrial estates under CPEC These include Multan Industrial Estate phase-II, Rahim Yar Industrial Estate, Bhalwal Industrial Estate and Mianwali, Rawalpindi and Dera Ghazi Khan industrial estate.
2. $1.6 billion Orange Line Mass Rail transit system for Lahore. Lahore already has a Metro Bus service.would it not be fair to allocate this project to Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan?
3. A branch of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China would be established in Lahore; would it not be fair if it were established in Quetta or Gwadar?
4. Lahore-Karachi motorway is being financed through CPEC to use it as a permanent route for this corridor. That’s why it’s meant for Lahore because it will ensure that CPEC route passes through the city in the future. National Highway that connects Karachi to Lahore is in pretty good shape as compared to Highways in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). First priority should have been to develop motorways in the two western provinces but that is not the case. Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal said that the existing Quetta-Surab road would be extended to Gwadar and it would connect Quetta to CPEC. Quetta-Surab Road is a one-lane broken road and that would be extended till Gwadar. This is what Balochistan would get and Punjab gets a state of the art Lahore-Karachi motorway from CPEC.
5.Coming back to the main point, CPEC serves as an umbrella for four categories of projects. These categories are Gwadar Port, Infrastructure, Energy and Economic Zones. The Gwadar port project is the starting point of this corridor but it’s not getting a single penny for its socio-economic development from the $28 billion. It’s a fact that Lahore as a city would benefit much more than Gwadar, which is the reason that Pakistan is getting $46 in first place. The second part is the rail road projects that would connect Gwadar with Kashghar. It has become crystal clear that the federal government is hell bent on preferring the eastern route over the western route. Developing Karachi-Lahore Motorway and inferior roads in Balochistan is part of that agenda.
6.As a part of CPEC, several economic zones would be established in Pakistan to enhance economic activity. Mysteriously, the federal government has not disclosed the exact location of these economic zones. This has led the politicians of Balochistan and KP to allege that the majority of these economic zones would be allocated to Punjab. This concern seems to be justified because if these economic zones were evenly distributed among all provinces, then Ahsan Iqbal would have proudly mentioned it to debunk the claims of CPEC being Punjab centric. That’s yet another reason to believe that federal government is trying to benefit Punjab at the expense of other provinces.
7.Out of 24 energy projects under the CPEC, apparently KP is set to get a grand total of zero.

CPEC must not be kept under wraps and eastern route should not be prioritized over the western route. However, the federal government is doing whatever it clan to give preference to the eastern route and that’s the main source of controversy. Kalabagh Dam was not made controversial by the smaller provinces, it became controversial due to its inherent nature; benefiting Punjab at expense of other provinces. If the Punjab centric nature of CPEC is not revised the CPEC would end up being too controversial for Pakistan’s benefit. Rather than blaming the victims for protesting, everyone who is concerned about the prosperity of Pakistan should oppose the Punjab-Centric nature of CPEC.
What KP wants is an equal share – with railways, gas and oil pipelines, LNG access, energy projects and economic zones.

So stop calling me a retard and do some research few pictures wont change people thinking and CPEC isnt all about roads which the central government is offering to the smaller provinces .

 

[ajpirzada]

To sir g Eastern side pe bhi to Lahore Karachi Motorway bhi to 90's a project hai yeh new road ni hai Sindh me existing roads ko hi upgrade kr rhay hain yeh jiska name change kr k Motorway krdia hai bs

han power plants hain jo new hain wo Ager chinese Balochistan me ni bnana chahte to unki marzi hai unhn ne hi paise lagane hain wo punjab ho ya Balochistan

It is not about the goodness of the project. Its about which project will generate 'greater' economic activity. When anyone talks about CPEC, he/she is talking about trade corridor and linking ourselves with regional economies, ryt? Now how does building a new motorway parallel to GT road helps you achieve either of that? Does it improve your regional connectivity? Does it open up new regions to mainstream economy?

Note that lahore to multan motorway is under construction. Multan to Sukhur will start under CPEC at the cost of $2.6bn. Then remaining segments will be built from Sukhur onwards until karachi. All of these are brand new routes. They will require billions of dollars in investment. Fair enough! But the question is: will it be worth it in economic terms?

On a side note, I have not met any pakistani economist who said lahore - isb motorway was a good project interms of economic returns. Even economists in the Planning Commission didnt think that when i was working there. Why? Because it didnt achieve what it was meant to achieve: industrialisation. Any guesses why it could achieve industrialisation? Because it was simply duplication of road network. It improved traffic flows and thats it.


anyways... i can understand why this is happening. Political economy is at play. The voters on the eastern side are the ones who determine who rules this country. So its natural that each subsequent government focuses on the eastern side.

yes, where was khattak guy when these projects were discussed with china ?
hint he is in front of supreme court dancing...

what about Balochistan? were they dancing as well? They got only $1.5bn.

if you think this is fair then you win. take care

 

[Benign Persona]

Yeh chahte hain k Kaam PML N wale KPK or Balochistan me krien or 2018 me Hum Apna name tag laga dein k hum ne bnaya hai yeh sb or votes mil jaien

so u mean the central gov is only for punjab? great i salute u man

 

[Who.Cares]

They don't do anything themselves anything when other does they get jealous or have problems. He is just playing pakhtoon card for political benefits. You don't need visa to go to Punjab.

It will also fade away just like their useless dharna due to which China's President visit was also delayed.

Tailwinds pushing Pakistan’s growth: WB
WASHINGTON: Pakistan stands to benefit from three tailwinds over the near- to medium-term, with average growth projected at 5.5 per cent over the forecast period, said the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report for 2016.

The report identified the ‘tailwinds’ as rising investments from China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); the anticipated return of Iran to the international economic community; and persistently low international oil prices.

The report also pointed out that macroeconomic adjustment in Pakistan under an International Monetary Fund programme is progressing, while efforts to crackdown on violent crime in Karachi, the country’s industrial and commercial hub, are supporting investor confidence.

The CPEC agreement, signed in 2015, “has further bolstered investor optimism, and, if implemented, has the potential to lift long-term growth,” the report predicted.

But the World Bank also pointed out that national elections in Pakistan are due in 2018, and warned that “hard won fiscal consolidation gains may be lost if spending ramps up in the pre-election period.”

“In addition, sovereign guarantees associated with the CPEC could pose substantial fiscal risks over the medium term,” the report added.

The report noted that the government of Pakistan usually refers to growth in real GDP “at factor cost” for policy purposes. Real GDP growth at factor cost is projected at 4.5pc in fiscal 2015-16.

The report, which described South Asia as a “bright spot” in next year’s global economic prospects, noted that both India and Pakistan have been on a path of fiscal consolidation over the past three years, and fiscal restraint is curbing demand-side pressures. Lower inflation has enabled central banks in India and Pakistan to cut policy rates to support activity.

The Pakistani currency, which had appreciated in real effective terms since 2013, has stabilised in recent months. The current account deficit has continued to narrow, reflecting lower oil import cost and strong remittance inflows.

The report showed that Pakistan has also made progress in reining in its budget deficit from 8.4pc of GDP in FY13 to 5.3pc in FY15. However, debt levels remain high at 65pc of GDP, the result of years of fiscal slippages, and interest payment costs are about 4.4pc of GDP.

Industrial activity has slowed in Pakistan, while external trade remains weak.

The central bank, with IMF assistance, is gradually strengthening monitoring of financial stability risks, and is in the process of instituting a modern deposit insurance scheme in line with international best practices.

Estimated at around $45bn of investment until 2030, the CPEC initiative will finance a series of transport infrastructure projects. These include $11bn, mostly public investment, in the transport sector, and $33bn in energy projects, also mostly private.

The projects foreseen in the CPEC to receive funding from China also include $4bn Silk Road Fund and partial financing for the $1.65bn Karot hydropower project.

But the report explained that stronger growth and investment in Pakistan “is predicated on reforms to strengthen the business climate, an improvement in the security situation, implementation of the CPEC and an associated easing in energy constraints.”

But the World Bank warns that these “developments might not materialise as expected … risks are mostly of domestic origin and mainly on the downside.”

 

[yesboss]

kalabagh was a different issue. In Kalabagh case, people against it dont want the project at all.

in CPEC, KPK is simply asking to increase their share in the total investment portfolio. Currently, KPK is only getting roughly $2.5bn out of the $28bn of the projects on which formal agreements have been signed. Both Punjab and Sindh are getting more than $10bn each. Balochistan is only getting $1.5bn.

Moreover, I fail to see how will Lahore-Karachi motorway change the fate of our economy? Lahore-Karachi road route is already fine and running. Improving it further will obviously have some benefit but is it going to link us with other regional economies? or Is it going to open access to new regions within our country?

On the other hand, a similar motorway on the western side would have improved our road link to central asia and iran. It would also have opened new regions within our country which are currently not linked up with the national economy. Clearly economic returns are higher for having a motorway on western side than eastern. But then again, political economy is a different animal to tame.

Can you please clarify these figures of $10bn to punjab and sindh. Are these for the roads or the energy projects like those of RLNG's and coal. If the $10Bn figure include energy projects then this argument has no weight that benefit goes to punjab and sindh but not kpk as energy would be for the entire country. thanks.

 

[Leviza]

It is not about the goodness of the project. Its about which project will generate 'greater' economic activity. When anyone talks about CPEC, he/she is talking about trade corridor and linking ourselves with regional economies, ryt? Now how does building a new motorway parallel to GT road helps you achieve either of that? Does it improve your regional connectivity? Does it open up new regions to mainstream economy?

Note that lahore to multan motorway is under construction. Multan to Sukhur will start under CPEC at the cost of $2.6bn. Then remaining segments will be built from Sukhur onwards until karachi. All of these are brand new routes. They will require billions of dollars in investment. Fair enough! But the question is: will it be worth it in economic terms?

On a side note, I have not met any pakistani economist who said lahore - isb motorway was a good project interms of economic returns. Even economists in the Planning Commission didnt think that when i was working there. Why? Because it didnt achieve what it was meant to achieve: industrialisation. Any guesses why it could achieve industrialisation? Because it was simply duplication of road network. It improved traffic flows and thats it.


anyways... i can understand why this is happening. Political economy is at play. The voters on the eastern side are the ones who determine who rules this country. So its natural that each subsequent government focuses on the eastern side.



what about Balochistan? were they dancing as well? They got only $1.5bn.

if you think this is fair then you win. take care

Yes it is fair ... let me tell you WHY

Take a example , land cost , agriculture land is always expensive, any land being taken by Gov in Punjab is expensive. where as in Baluchistan non agriculture land is not that expensive..

this is one example my friend, please understand the ground realities before jumping up and down

 

[Manidabest]

naaaa never it wont be another kala bagh dam at alll...

 

[ajpirzada]

Can you please clarify these figures of $10bn to punjab and sindh. Are these for the roads or the energy projects like those of RLNG's and coal. If the $10Bn figure include energy projects then this argument has no weight that benefit goes to punjab and sindh but not kpk as energy would be for the entire country. thanks.

it includes all the projects on which formal agreement was signed during the recent visit of Chinease PM.

"as energy would be for the entire country." This is bad economic argument. Investment creates jobs, brings in new technology, imparts skills etc etc. All this increases provincial GDP and GDP growth rates. Why should KPK and Balochistan be left aside?

Yes it is fair ... let me tell you WHY

Take a example , land cost , agriculture land is always expensive, any land being taken by Gov in Punjab is expensive. where as in Baluchistan non agriculture land is not that expensive..

this is one example my friend, please understand the ground realities before jumping up and down

that makes my argument even more stronger. Why do you want to destroy agriculture land? Also why do you want to build motorway on the side of your country where it will cost a lot more? Doesnt make economic sense.

 

[yesboss]

it includes all the projects on which formal agreement was signed during the recent visit of Chinease PM.

"as energy would be for the entire country." This is bad economic argument. Investment creates jobs, brings in new technology, imparts skills etc etc. All this increases provincial GDP and GDP growth rates. Why should KPK and Balochistan be left aside?



that makes my argument even more stronger. Why do you want to destroy agriculture land? Also why do you want to build motorway on the side of your country where it will cost a lot more? Doesnt make economic sense.

So the heavy figure of $10Bn for punjab sindh is due to energy projects. Now the Chinese investing in hydro power projects not in punjab or sindh but kpk, Azad kahmir or G.B. Similarly if it suits to invest for the other power projects in punjab and sindh either due to security or skilled labor already available or that huge population is starving for energy here then making a power plant near to it makes sense , it's there decision to invest here not ours. And tell me how would kpk govt halt these energy projects being huge chuck of investment by not giving the land in kpk for the route. And also tell me what would create more jobs and bring in new technology, these 4-6 power projects or the S.economic zones and industries being setup in kpk and other provinces.

 

[Leviza]

it includes all the projects on which formal agreement was signed during the recent visit of Chinease PM.

"as energy would be for the entire country." This is bad economic argument. Investment creates jobs, brings in new technology, imparts skills etc etc. All this increases provincial GDP and GDP growth rates. Why should KPK and Balochistan be left aside?



that makes my argument even more stronger. Why do you want to destroy agriculture land? Also why do you want to build motorway on the side of your country where it will cost a lot more? Doesnt make economic sense.

Bro that was just one example .. yes it is expensive , but on the other hand it will be beneficial as well as bigger markets will be closer to people who consume it , these things are interrelated ... if you see the map of CPEC , you will find that major projects which is prime importance for Pakistan are in most populated areas .. that make sense, where as areas with very less density of population have projects and roads which will uplift that area and will provide less congestion for traffic and faster route ..

Western Part Motor way is specifically to integrate the locals on that side plus shorter journey times for china.. i hope this helps but i am not here to convince you, just to convey my point of view .. agree or not , you are still my fellow country man i respect your point of view

but the way this khattak is threatening the overall project is wrong...

 

[ajpirzada]

So the heavy figure of $10Bn for punjab sindh is due to energy projects. Now the Chinese investing in hydro power projects not in punjab or sindh but kpk, Azad kahmir or G.B. Similarly if it suits to invest for the other power projects in punjab and sindh either due to security or skilled labor already available or that huge population is starving for energy here then making a power plant near to it makes sense , it's there decision to invest here not ours. And tell me how would kpk govt halt these energy projects being huge chuck of investment by not giving the land in kpk for the route. And also tell me what would create more jobs and bring in new technology, these 4-6 power projects or the S.economic zones and industries being setup in kpk and other provinces.

There is nothing stopping these projects to be built in KPK. China is already working in GB and Kashmir with 1000s of workers. So finding right skills in KPK is also not a problem. Infact most of the workers will be Chinease. It is more about local workers learning from Chinease than other way round.

"Huge population starving for energy." Like you said, its going to go into national grid first and then to the consumers.

im not concerend about how KPK will stop CPEC from happening. Its not my problem. i am only concerned about small provinces getting their fair share.

SEZs are still on paper. Where is the financial allocation for these zones in the PSDP? Only making anouncements is not enough. Projects must show up in the PSDP if the government is really serious.

Bro that was just one example .. yes it is expensive , but on the other hand it will be beneficial as well as bigger markets will be closer to people who consume it , these things are interrelated ... if you see the map of CPEC , you will find that major projects which is prime importance for Pakistan are in most populated areas .. that make sense, where as areas with very less density of population have projects and roads which will uplift that area and will provide less congestion for traffic and faster route ..

Western Part Motor way is specifically to integrate the locals on that side plus shorter journey times for china.. i hope this helps but i am not here to convince you, just to convey my point of view .. agree or not , you are still my fellow country man i respect your point of view

but the way this khattak is threatening the overall project is wrong...

We do not choose projects on population basis. We choose projects based on economic returns. Like i said in my posts, building a motorway on the eastern side which runs parallel to GT road and other highway network is not going to take us to prosperity. Lahore-Islamabad motorway was a failure to start industrialisation. Why? because it did not link us to new regional markets and neither did it open access to new regions within the country.


You can justify your population argument using 'political economy.' Since most of the voters live on the eastern side, every subsequent government cares more about the eastern side than the western side.

I dont care much about what Khattak is saying. I am only concerned that small provinces must get their fair share. I dont want another Bangladesh.

 

[mr.robot]

Well, he was the main character, his anti-bangali hate filled speeches did more damaged than any weapon. Rest Mujib was cooking his plan long before 71 with Indians and Soviets. I don't see where punjabi come in all this mess.

You really think that two persons could manage to split the whole country and that too without any public support and the so called custodians (Four Stars) couldn't do anything. Bro! read history as everyone including the Khakis played their role.

To sir g Eastern side pe bhi to Lahore Karachi Motorway bhi to 90's a project hai yeh new road ni hai Sindh me existing roads ko hi upgrade kr rhay hain yeh jiska name change kr k Motorway krdia hai bs

han power plants hain jo new hain wo Ager chinese Balochistan me ni bnana chahte to unki marzi hai unhn ne hi paise lagane hain wo punjab ho ya Balochistan

Can you kindly quote me one incident where any official from Sindh, Balochistan, and KPK was asked to become part of negotiation with Chinese officials? Whereas CM Punjab is almost always there......

There is nothing stopping these projects to be built in KPK. China is already working in GB and Kashmir with 1000s of workers. So finding right skills in KPK is also not a problem. Infact most of the workers will be Chinease. It is more about local workers learning from Chinease than other way round.

"Huge population starving for energy." Like you said, its going to go into national grid first and then to the consumers.

im not concerend about how KPK will stop CPEC from happening. Its not my problem. i am only concerned about small provinces getting their fair share.

SEZs are still on paper. Where is the financial allocation for these zones in the PSDP? Only making anouncements is not enough. Projects must show up in the PSDP if the government is really serious.

You have summed up their grievences pretty much. By looking at the hollow and provocative responses, I am now pretty sure that similar cirumstances pushed Bengalis to the edge where they no longer wanted to remain in Federation