Collapse of Turkey’s Middle East policy

[Kajutyun]

Turkey and Azerbaijan already uses Georgia as a land bridge for their trade needs as wee see from Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, Nabucco project and already existing huge trade between two nations. Armenia is nothing but a pesky nuicance compared to Turkey and Azerbaijan already supressed Armenia to a degree that Armenia does not threaten Azerbaijanian security much except, Iranian and Russian support of Armenia.

Conclusion, it took my precious time to explain geopolitics to a kid with no idea about what he/she is talking about except his/her state's propaganda channels so please lets not continue this discussion, specially when there is such a gap between our intellects.

Deno, you never cease to impress me in your ignorance of history and geopolitics. The BTC pipeline was a near disaster when it was being planned. Did you know that, at first, Armenia was a candidate for being the medium between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Of course, this was overruled, and the next candidate was Iran. Georgia was the backup plan.

If you honestly believe that BTC will not be the end of Azerbaijan, you are mistaken. Although covered up with flowery statements and "bridges of friendship," the Russians are secretly FUMING over the BTC. Originally, the plan was to transit Azeri oil through Novorossiysk, Russia on its way to Turkey. Russia was particularly intent in this because Azeri Light crude was of higher quality than Russian-medium grade (they called it Ural mix), and mixing the two raised the price. After Western oil companies realized that 1)this was cutting into profits and 2)Turkish straits cannot handle more than 2 million barrels per day, the plan was scrapped, much to Russia's annoyance.

Also, Armenia was never a threat to Azeri security. All Armenia ever did was retake our historic homeland that was always Armenian majority, even though Azerbaijan started depopulation actions in 1920s. Unfortunately, such tactics worked in Nakhchivan, but fortunately not in Karabakh. Whether Azerbaijan chooses to take offense to this is not our problem. Furthermore, Deno, you would probably be surprised to know that Armenia has always welcomed Azeris to settle in Karabakh, provided that they agree not to undermine security. This is because we recognize that Karabakh also had historic Azeri population.

How you became a mod, I have no effing idea.

 

[kollang]

Seriously? Do you still want to continue this IR propaganda?

hey,i prefer being brainwashed by my own countries media than the master country media

In future, Turkmenistan can export her gas from Trans-Caspian pipeline if it's constructed but it doesn't seem like it will at any near future and also has the opinion of exporting her gas via Kazakhstan and Russia like she already does. Iran can be bypassed with little trouble as both Türkite and GCC will help Turkmenistan economy to a certian degree like they did with Egypt.

have you realy problem at understanding things?Russia and Iran wont let any pipeline cross the sea.see how this country is dependent on us.

And that goverment doesn't have any power and cannot even control the oil in her own soil...

sabrela...lol
this country will be one of the richest country in ME.even richer than turkey and Iran.

Iran will be left friendless in a very hostile region... That is isolation...

by this logic,Turkey is the most isolated country in the world.because you have bad relation with Iran,Iraq,Syria,Armenia and Greece.

Chinese goverment is very pragmatic and they know that they don't need a strong Iran. They just need Iran to be in economical trouble so they can continue to get their oil at cheap prices for their energy needs. All of the world says Iran sells its oil at cheaper price to attract costumers and all we got is word of Iranian oil minister (if I remember right), a regime known for lying with a straith face and a president who believes that light was shining upon him during his UN speech. Iran isn't the most credible source in this world.

as i said you have problem in understanding things.my previous reply is enough in this case

Georgia already learned that it shouldn't test Russia's patient. They won't try something like this again and Russia will never have the excuse to attack Georgia. As for Azerbaijan Armenia war, Azerbaijan can meet its needs easily with little trouble from Caspian sea via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Only need of Azerbaijan in a war stuation where Georgian trade route is not available will be it's need of weapons and they have already tons of it. Their armed forces is times of times larger than Armenia.

in a likely war Armenia will be supplied by Iran and Russia,while azerbaijan will be alone.the georgia route will be closed under Russian pressure.and for sure that route wont be enough for azerbaijan to be supplied.they need Iran as well.like what happened in 94.

 

[500]

Turkey making a big mistake on Syria.....

Actually, Turkey is not doing anything yet beside blah blah blah (ultimate Erdogan's tactics ).

Iran and Russia will maintain the balance of power in their region

Assad is going to fall. I said that before fights started, no I am even more sure.

Meanwhile. Today FSA clashed with PKK, 8 PKK killed.

 

[Serpentine]

Meanwhile. Today FSA clashed with PKK, 8 PKK killed.

and your Source?

 

[500]

and your Source?

Clashes break out between PKK militants and Free Syrian Army - Trend.Az

Syrian Kurds only begin to feel freedom from oppressive Assad's regime, they also have oil, so last thing they need now is clash with Turkey. Its just little troublemaker minority that makes problems.

 

[Deno]

have you realy problem at understanding things? Russia and Iran wont let any pipeline cross the sea.see how this country is dependent on us.

Like I said, it isn't likely to be constructed. They have the option of transporting their oil trough Russia which they already do and with soft loans and investments from Turkey and GCC their economy won't suffer much.

sabrela...lol
this country will be one of the richest country in ME.even richer than turkey and Iran.

Yes, and then Africa will become the new capital of civilatazion... Seriously, you are just making it painful to have this discussion with you.

by this logic,Turkey is the most isolated country in the world.because you have bad relation with Iran,Iraq,Syria,Armenia and Greece.

Turkey is a NATO country with near perfect relations with Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and when Assad falls, Turkey will be connected to KSA, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt (once the bridge project between KSA and Egypt finishes) and has full support of United Kindom and US of A in most of her foreign relations and you say that Turkey is an isolated country... What an ignorant statement.

as i said you have problem in understanding things.my previous reply is enough in this case

You stated that China will not let anyone attack Iran and I said that isolation does not require a war and stated that Iran is already becoming isolated and maybe even more isolated than the first years of revolution.

in a likely war Armenia will be supplied by Iran and Russia,while azerbaijan will be alone.the georgia route will be closed under Russian pressure.and for sure that route wont be enough for azerbaijan to be supplied.they need Iran as well.like what happened in 94.

In first war Azerbaijan didn't have functional economy nor did she have any industry to support a war unlike now and suffered a defeat because of Iranian and Russian support of Armenia. Their armed forces already stronger than both other Caucasian contries combined and even with Iranian support Armenia will not cause much trouble for Azerbaijan. Their forces are trained by Turkish armed forces which is one of the strongest militaries in this world and via Turkey and Israel they get Western and via Russia and Ukraine they get Eastern weaponry. They are far too superior than Armenian armed forces.

Please... I decided to end this discussion as I really don't want to enter into discussions with my intellectual inferiors and waste my time.

 

[kollang]

sorry deno.as i said you have problem in understanding things.it seems im discussing will 6 years old girl.

 

[Quasar]

Stating facts are not insults. If you don't have the requirements for a sophisticated discussion than you shouldn't be in one.

Please... I decided to end this discussion as I really don't want to enter into discussions with my intellectual inferiors and waste my time.

sorry deno.as i said you have problem in understanding things.it seems im discussing will 6 years old girl.

even comparing the Ad Hominem(s) is enough to see who is a 6 years old one

 

[Deno]

A possible Alawite state is important to Iran because it can serve as a logistic route to Lebanon.

But Assad or Alawites need to act now, if they are late then it might be impossible to stop FSA/Sunni troops to enter Alawite majority areas.

You need to understand why the Assad's even grabbed the power in Syria. They suffered decades from Sunni oppression and still have traumas from that era. They will never accept an Sunni, anti-Alawite based Syria.

To be honest I am not very knowledgeable in past sectarian issues of Syria so I am not qualified to comment on this.

Kurds of Syria will probably be assisted by other revolutionary Kurds. They have the experience and willingness to fight the FSA. And probably will even get assistance from Iran, mainly because Kurdish autonomy is in Iran's interest - to serve as an logistic line to an independent Alawite nation.

Kurdish majority regions and Alawite majority regions does not have any land route between them so no state except Iraq can send any supplies to Syrian Kurds and PKK cannot spare any source from Turkey to help Syrian Kurds as they will jeopardize their positions in Turkey and Northern Iraq if they devote any supplies to Syrian soil and not to mention the full support of Turkey, specially when FSA becomes some-what legitimate goverment.

Turkey made the mistake to mingle in the intern affairs of Arab states. That's the exact mistake Iran made since the '79 revolution and Iranians are still paying the price. No country in the world should ever mingle in the intern affairs of Arab states. One should watch the movie Lawrence of Arabia to see the nature of Arabs. Sectarianism and tribalism is almost inherent to the Arab identity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhBIP...eature=related

Turkey's alliance with KSA and GCC was a needed one but Turkey should have played a natural role in Syria and should aim for stoping the bloodshed. Erdogan did try this approach at first but I guess his patient run out which is unacceptable for a politician.

 

[explorer9]

Let the dust get settled and we will find that Turkey will be the biggest beneficiary in the greater Middle East.

 

[Zulkarneyn]

Let the dust get settled and we will find that Turkey will be the biggest beneficiary in the greater Middle East.

This is inevitable. Let the short sighted remain short sighted.

 

[asad71]

After a long time - a very long time, in Erdogan Turkey has found a man of vision. May Allah protect him and allow him to serve the Muslim world for long.

 

[Kajutyun]

In first war Azerbaijan didn't have functional economy nor did she have any industry to support a war unlike now and suffered a defeat because of Iranian and Russian support of Armenia. Their armed forces already stronger than both other Caucasian contries combined and even with Iranian support Armenia will not cause much trouble for Azerbaijan. Their forces are trained by Turkish armed forces which is one of the strongest militaries in this world and via Turkey and Israel they get Western and via Russia and Ukraine they get Eastern weaponry. They are far too superior than Armenian armed forces.

That's interesting. Tell me, if Azerbaijan is so strong, why has it yet to "liberate" Karabakh. Legally speaking, it is allowed to do so.

Have you ever been to the frontline? If you had been, you would not make such statements. Armenian/NKR forces are ENTRENCHED in the mountains. Assuming that Azeri forces surpass the mine fields between the two lines (which they will suffer heavy losses in doing so), they will be taken out by Armenian sniper fire and be demolished in the mountains (as exemplified in '93). Honestly, do you actually believe that contemporary Azeri forces are more battle ready than 20 years ago?

Also, you are discounting the Armenian diaspora. While current Armenian/NKR army is around 75,000, there are 10 million worldwide Armenians, and I can ASSURE you that a good number of them will enlist (myself included) if Azerbaijan tries anything. Such fedayi forces were key in winning in '93, and they will play an important role this time as well.

Besides, Azeri soldiers know that Karabakh is Armenian land, and are therefore not willing to die for it, just like they weren't twenty years ago. Best case scenario for Azerbaijan (and this has a 1/100 chance) Azerbaijan nominally takes control of Karabakh, and will be dealing with an Armenian insurgency for the rest of eternity.

 

[Azatavrear]

^^^Unofficial sources in Caucasus place Armenian defense forces as ranked #1 in performance....pound per pound

Also, you are discounting the Armenian diaspora. While current Armenian/NKR army is around 75,000, there are 10 million worldwide Armenians, and I can ASSURE you that a good number of them will enlist (myself included) if Azerbaijan tries anything. Such fedayi forces were key in winning in '93, and they will play an important role this time as well.

I don't think Artsakh Army is going to need us this time around, regardless there are certain diaspora legions who are on standby and recruiting all the time for the cause.

Besides, Azeri soldiers know that Karabakh is Armenian land, and are therefore not willing to die for it, just like they weren't twenty years ago.

This is more true now then it was ever before.

 

[LegionnairE]

^^exact greek mentality before '74