Collapse of Turkey’s Middle East policy

[TopCat]

Does D-8 has any relevance of current Islamic affairs? Home Page

 

[Surenas]

Who cares about how many Syrians will die or live as long as Turkish foreign policy pays of and start to give us its fruits. Do you think decision takes of any country gives a second thoughts about death foeigners, I may not like it but this is the truth for nearly all countries around the world. The second Assad goes down KSA-Syria-Türkiye pipeline and railway project will be built and that will give billions of dollars to Türkiye and KSA. Our puppet goverment in Syria will also fight for us against the PKK which kind of like an annoying mosquito that only bites at summers and lay it's eggs at some disgusting place at winter.

Your premise is based on the fact that if Assad falls, everything will be normal just like it was. You don't take into account the fact that many Islamic fanatics are 'stationed' in Syria, what the Kurds in Northeastern Syria will do, how the Alawites will respond, etc. Syria will probably face the same problems Yugoslavia faced when Tito died. What if the Alawites declare an independent nation? What if the Kurds in Syria will get more freedom and autonomy? What if a sectarian war will break out?

Besides that,, you think that Iran will just sit and look how the Turks and Saudi's topple Assad while the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah triangle will fall apart? Iran will probably do everything they can, if Assad falls, to prevent an Sunni dominated Syria, by probably feeding sectarian violence, supporting the Kurds in Syria in their conquest for more autonomy, secretly supporting the PKK, as well as supporting the Alawites, etc. What if the Iran-Assad(Alawite)-Hezbollah triangle will remain, because Iran will use Kurdish Syria as a logistic line to a eventual Alawite nation?

There are so many scenarios thinkable, that nobody can predict how the future of Syria will look like. But the fact is that Turkey nor Iran has won by this so-called Arab spring. The only one who benefitted (so far) from this spring are the Islamic fundamentalists (Muslim Brotherhood).

 

[kollang]

Agh...

what is Agh.....?

Agh... It is really hard to have a meaningfull conversation with victims of state propaganda and state sponsored hatred.

uh,c'mon!are you admiting that Turkey and PGCC are independent?

To be honest, noone cares if you care or not... Like I said, Iran isn't even top 7 exporters to Turkmenistan and is the 5th importer of Turkmenistan's goods and Nabucco pipleline deal is already signed and will be built between 2013-2017

i dont need your care too.but it seems you can understand things very well......
as i said turkmenistan MUST get the Iranian permission for exporting gaz!can you understand it?????
its not about export-import...

Again, noone is intrested in your opinion of caring or not... Kurds and Sunnis hold the makor share of land in Iraq and they make up around %40-45 of the population and Turkey already buys Jurdish oil and gas. Iraq already lost it's power in Middle East and does not hold any importance as they already gave their oil drilling rights to American and European companies. As much as goverment favors Iran they don't have any means to help Iran.

im not following anyone's intrest.again the sunnis or kurds are not important.but the gov which is pro Iran.
and about Iraq...just wait...this Iraq will be more developed and important in coming years.

Pakistan only needs to stay as natural and with right amount of soft loans and aid, Pakistan will never become pro-Iran and that is enough for isolating Iran. For example, Turkey is one of the main importers of Iranian gas but Turkish and Iranian relations cannot get any tenser and this didn't and will not effect gas exports as Iran is desperate for oil/gas money to cure their crumbling economy.]

we dont need Pakistan as an ally.just being natural is enough for Iran and it doesnt make Iran isolated...

Russia does not have power to stop anything unless the said event is occuring in Caucasia or old Soviet nations such as Belarus or Ukraine. As long as Iran is not attacked China won't move a finger and use this opportunity to buy Iranian oil and gas at cheap prices to feed it's ever growing energy needs and isolating Iran have nothing to do with attacking Iran. Isolating and destroying it's already crumbling economy is enough to damage Iran for decades just like Iraq-Iran war.

Russia isnt a superpower anymore.its a fact.but china is.for China its importan to have an Independent and powerful Iran who can defend herself from her enemies.and also china is not buying our oil in cheap price.thats a lie

Turkey and Azerbaijan already uses Georgia as a land bridge for their trade needs as wee see from Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, Nabucco project and already existing huge trade between two nations. Armenia is nothing but a pesky nuicance compared to Turkey and Azerbaijan already supressed Armenia to a degree that Armenia does not threaten Azerbaijanian security much except, Iranian and Russian support of Armenia.

in a likely war georgia wont be able to keep this route active.so azerbaijan will have to ask Iran for help.like what happened in 94.

Conclusion, it took my precious time to explain geopolitics to a kid with no idea about what he/she is talking about except his/her state's propaganda channels so please lets not continue this discussion, specially when there is such a gap between our intellects.

feel free to insult me...because i wont dance with your song.

 

[Solomon2]

Who cares about how many Syrians will die or live as long as Turkish foreign policy pays of and start to give us its fruits. Do you think decision takes of any country gives a second thoughts about death foeigners -

That's almost as disgusting as in 1918 when the Caliph, responsible for the deaths of millions of Armenians, claimed the payoff from their American life insurance policies, on the grounds that he had left the dead Armenians no heirs so the government - himself - was the proper beneficiary.

Naturally, the Americans were horrified and refused: link So yes, some countries do give second thoughts about the deaths of foreigners.

 

[Deno]

Your premise is based on the fact that if Assad falls, everything will be normal just like it was. You don't take into account the fact that many Islamic fanatics are 'stationed' in Syria, what the Kurds in Northeastern Syria will do, how the Alawites will respond, etc. Syria will probably face the same problems Yugoslavia faced when Tito died. What if the Alawites declare an independent nation? What if the Kurds in Syria will get more freedom and autonomy? What if a sectarian war will break out?

Besides that,, you think that Iran will just sit and look how the Turks and Saudi's topple Assad while the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah triangle will fall apart? Iran will probably do everything they can, if Assad falls, to prevent an Sunni dominated Syria, by probably feeding sectarian violence, supporting the Kurds in Syria in their conquest for more autonomy, secretly supporting the PKK, as well as supporting the Alawites, etc. What if the Iran-Assad(Alawite)-Hezbollah triangle will remain, because Iran will use Kurdish Syria as a logistic line to a eventual Alawite nation?

There are so many scenarios thinkable, that nobody can predict how the future of Syria will look like. But the fact is that Turkey nor Iran has won by this so-called Arab spring. The only one who benefitted (so far) from this spring are the Islamic fundamentalists (Muslim Brotherhood).

I believe that the objectives of Türkiye and GCC are alienate Iran from Syria and Hezbullah and have a land route between them and only way to do this is trough Syria and this will be accomplished the second Assad falls even if there is an Alawite state as Alawites are only majority in sea coast and cannot hinder these projects.

This clashes will continue as sectarian war, there is no stoping that. Sunnis stored up great amount of hatred and suffering since the first days of rule of Assad family. I personally hope that this sectarian issues stay minor clashes but it doesn't look like it will stay that way.

Ofcourse there are numerous ways this conflict can end but at the moment it does favor GCC and Türkiye. But I don't think Syrian Kurds can gain too much from this conflict. If this conflict ends in favour of FSA than FSA can give its full attention on urdish issue and they will have huge advantage against Kurds. Kurdish areas of Syria are neither mountanus nor it has any other defence advantages Kurds can use against FSA and lets not forget that after this conflict FSA will have much more battle experience than Kurds of Syria, will have most of the Syrian armies equipment and full support of Türkiye. Iran may support Kurds of Syria but unlike Türkiye Iran does not have any direct route to Syrian Kurds.

And I do agree with you on the subject of fundamentalism. Extremist elements in FSA can become trouble in later years for Türkiye. I did not talk about Assad staying in power because Assad is very likely to be topple down by FSA and other Sunni groups in Syria. Although, Alawite state at sea coast is one of the likely consequenses of this conflict and will only increase the dependence new Syrian regime on Türkiye for trade routes.

That's almost as disgusting as in 1918 when the Caliph, responsible for the deaths of millions of Armenians, claimed the payoff from their American life insurance policies, on the grounds that he had left the dead Armenians no heirs so the government - himself - was the proper beneficiary.

Naturally, the Americans were horrified and refused: link So yes, some countries do give second thoughts about the deaths of foreigners.

Lets discuss how American decision makers cared about Iraqi, Vietnamese, Yemeni, Pakistani and Afghan civilian lifes. Are you implying that the napalm US bombarded Vietnam, DU shels that still kills babies and civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan, Drone strikes in Yemen, Pakistan and Afghanistan are the consequences of the great love of human life American decision makers hold?

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

And I do agree with you on the subject of fundamentalism. Extremist elements in FSA can become trouble in later years for Türkiye. I did not talk about Assad staying in power because Assad is very likely to be topple down by FSA and other Sunni groups in Syria. Although, Alawite state at sea coast is one of the likely consequenses of this conflict and will only increase the dependence new Syrian regime on Türkiye for trade routes.

I don't think so, Alawites are divided within themselves, there are Alawites in the FSA and others provide information to FSA as they work for the regime. They are spread all over Syria especially in Homs and the capital, so their Presence isn't concentrated in the mountainous areas by the sea as it used to be. Furthermore, there are a considerable number of Sunnies who live in those areas as well. Syria would never allow establishing such a state that would make it a landlocked country whatever it takes.

 

[Deno]

uh,c'mon!are you admiting that Turkey and PGCC are independent?

Seriously? Do you still want to continue this IR propaganda?

i dont need your care too.but it seems you can understand things very well......
as i said turkmenistan MUST get the Iranian permission for exporting gaz!can you understand it?????
its not about export-import...

In future, Turkmenistan can export her gas from Trans-Caspian pipeline if it's constructed but it doesn't seem like it will at any near future and also has the opinion of exporting her gas via Kazakhstan and Russia like she already does. Iran can be bypassed with little trouble as both Türkite and GCC will help Turkmenistan economy to a certian degree like they did with Egypt.

im not following anyone's intrest.again the sunnis or kurds are not important.but the gov which is pro Iran.
and about Iraq...just wait...this Iraq will be more developed and important in coming years.

And that goverment doesn't have any power and cannot even control the oil in her own soil...

we dont need Pakistan as an ally.just being natural is enough for Iran and it doesnt make Iran isolated...

Iran will be left friendless in a very hostile region... That is isolation...

Russia isnt a superpower anymore.its a fact.but china is.for China its importan to have an Independent and powerful Iran who can defend herself from her enemies.and also china is not buying our oil in cheap price.thats a lie

Chinese goverment is very pragmatic and they know that they don't need a strong Iran. They just need Iran to be in economical trouble so they can continue to get their oil at cheap prices for their energy needs. All of the world says Iran sells its oil at cheaper price to attract costumers and all we got is word of Iranian oil minister (if I remember right), a regime known for lying with a straith face and a president who believes that light was shining upon him during his UN speech. Iran isn't the most credible source in this world.

in a likely war georgia wont be able to keep this route active.so azerbaijan will have to ask Iran for help.like what happened in 94.

Georgia already learned that it shouldn't test Russia's patient. They won't try something like this again and Russia will never have the excuse to attack Georgia. As for Azerbaijan Armenia war, Azerbaijan can meet its needs easily with little trouble from Caspian sea via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Only need of Azerbaijan in a war stuation where Georgian trade route is not available will be it's need of weapons and they have already tons of it. Their armed forces is times of times larger than Armenia.

feel free to insult me...because i wont dance with your song.

Stating facts are not insults. If you don't have the requirements for a sophisticated discussion than you shouldn't be in one.

I don't think so, Alawites are divided within themselves, there are Alawites in the FSA and others provide information to FSA as they work for the regime. They are spread all over Syria especially in Homs and the capital, so their Presence isn't concentrated in the mountainous areas by the sea as it used to be. Furthermore, there are a considerable number of Sunnies who live in those areas as well. Syria would never allow establishing such a state that would make it a landlocked country whatever it takes.

I hope so... Creation of Alawite state will cut the Alawite Arabs from the oil and freash water sources of Sunni Arabs and Sunni Arabs from very important trade routes. Our region is changing and I really hope that whether it is in my country's intrest or not, it will be for the best. People of the Middle East suffered from wars and destruction it brought more than enough and it is our time to flourish and live in peace for once.

 

[Abdi-Karim Elmi]

The question is when will IRG will fall in Iran?

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

I hope so... Creation of Alawite state will cut the Alawite Arabs from the oil and freash water sources of Sunni Arabs and Sunni Arabs from very important trade routes. Our region is changing and I really hope that whether it is in my country's intrest or not, it will be for the best. People of the Middle East suffered from wars and destruction it brought more than enough and it is our time to flourish and live in peace for once.

It's absolutely not in Turkey interest, there are 10 million Alawites live in Turkey, most of them live in areas adjacent to this "state" which would open Turkish Alawites appetite to establish the greater Alawites state. It's the same issue as Kurdistan, Turkey would never allow establishing a Kurdish state in the neighboring countries as Turkey know that such a state would work to include all Kurdish areas in the region in some way or another, or at least would support their Kurdish brothers against Turkish "oppression".

 

[Deno]

It's absolutely not in Turkey interest, there are 10 million Alawites live in Turkey, most of them live in areas adjacent to this "state" which would open Turkish Alawites appetite to establish the greater Alawites state. It's the same issue as Kurdistan, Turkey would never allow establishing a Kurdish state in the neighboring countries as Turkey know that such a state would work to include all Kurdish areas in the region in some way or another, or at least would support their Kurdish brothers against Turkish "oppression".

Alevis of Türkiye and Alawites of Syria are different from each other although there are around few hundred thausands of Alawites at Hatay, they have no quarel with the state and pretty much patriotic as a Turk. Like I said, creation of an Alawite state will not benefit anyone and hurt Syrian Arabs, both Sunni and Alawite.

 

[Serpentine]

Deno,Iran is not selling cheap oil or gas to China,the oil minister denied the news several times.China doesn't want to lose Iran,because if an American puppet takes the lead in Iran,China will lose the most since the pulse of world's oil and natural gas heart will be in U.S hands,so it can have final world in more international matters,and as you know,it's not in U.S interests to have a superpower rival in Asia.

 

[revojam]

That's almost as disgusting as in 1918 when the Caliph, responsible for the deaths of millions of Armenians, claimed the payoff from their American life insurance policies, on the grounds that he had left the dead Armenians no heirs so the government - himself - was the proper beneficiary.

Naturally, the Americans were horrified and refused: link So yes, some countries do give second thoughts about the deaths of foreigners.

LOL another masterpiece from Solomon , a ******** zionist jew talking about human rights with reports written by Americans whats more a pro-mullah iranian actually liked your post thanked you You never stop to amaze me with your full of hyprocsy posts

 

[Surenas]

I don't think so, Alawites are divided within themselves, there are Alawites in the FSA and others provide information to FSA as they work for the regime. They are spread all over Syria especially in Homs and the capital, so their Presence isn't concentrated in the mountainous areas by the sea as it used to be. Furthermore, there are a considerable number of Sunnies who live in those areas as well. Syria would never allow establishing such a state that would make it a landlocked country whatever it takes.

The FSA is also divided. There are also Sunnis in the Syrian regime and army. Fact is that a Alawite state is a great possibility if Assad falls and they have the tools (now) to establish such state.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

LOL another masterpiece from Solomon , a ******** zionist jew talking about human rights with reports written by Americans whats more a pro-mullah iranian actually liked your post thanked you You never stop to amaze me with your full of hyprocsy posts

Solomon's reply:

 

[Surenas]

I believe that the objectives of Türkiye and GCC are alienate Iran from Syria and Hezbullah and have a land route between them and only way to do this is trough Syria and this will be accomplished the second Assad falls even if there is an Alawite state as Alawites are only majority in sea coast and cannot hinder these projects.

A possible Alawite state is important to Iran because it can serve as a logistic route to Lebanon.

This clashes will continue as sectarian war, there is no stoping that. Sunnis stored up great amount of hatred and suffering since the first days of rule of Assad family. I personally hope that this sectarian issues stay minor clashes but it doesn't look like it will stay that way.

You need to understand why the Assad's even grabbed the power in Syria. They suffered decades from Sunni oppression and still have traumas from that era. They will never accept an Sunni, anti-Alawite based Syria.

Ofcourse there are numerous ways this conflict can end but at the moment it does favor GCC and Türkiye. But I don't think Syrian Kurds can gain too much from this conflict. If this conflict ends in favour of FSA than FSA can give its full attention on urdish issue and they will have huge advantage against Kurds. Kurdish areas of Syria are neither mountanus nor it has any other defence advantages Kurds can use against FSA and lets not forget that after this conflict FSA will have much more battle experience than Kurds of Syria, will have most of the Syrian armies equipment and full support of Türkiye. Iran may support Kurds of Syria but unlike Türkiye Iran does not have any direct route to Syrian Kurds.

Kurds of Syria will probably be assisted by other revolutionary Kurds. They have the experience and willingness to fight the FSA. And probably will even get assistance from Iran, mainly because Kurdish autonomy is in Iran's interest - to serve as an logistic line to an independent Alawite nation.

And I do agree with you on the subject of fundamentalism. Extremist elements in FSA can become trouble in later years for Türkiye. I did not talk about Assad staying in power because Assad is very likely to be topple down by FSA and other Sunni groups in Syria. Although, Alawite state at sea coast is one of the likely consequenses of this conflict and will only increase the dependence new Syrian regime on Türkiye for trade routes.

Turkey made the mistake to mingle in the intern affairs of Arab states. That's the exact mistake Iran made since the '79 revolution and Iranians are still paying the price. No country in the world should ever mingle in the intern affairs of Arab states. One should watch the movie Lawrence of Arabia to see the nature of Arabs. Sectarianism and tribalism is almost inherent to the Arab identity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhBIPZCVj84&feature=related