Martian2
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I agree that it doesn't make sense to become obsessed with the description of whether the DF-41 has reached IOC or deployed. The fact remains the DF-41 has successfully conducted at least one known flight test. It exists and 10 months have passed since the flight test. China has most likely built more DF-41s.
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Known Chinese ICBM tests during 2012
I hope Richard Fisher doesn't have an aneurysm over China's ICBM tests. He seems pretty upset at the rapid advancement in Chinese thermonuclear forces. Here's a chronology of the Chinese ICBM tests for 2012.
July 24, 2012: DF-41 ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This is the first known unclassified DF-41 test. I have read that China has conducted ground tests on the DF-41 engines for years and there may have been previously unreported DF-41 flight tests. However, the July 24th DF-41 test is the first widely-known flight test.
August 16, 2012: JL-2 SLBM test (3-8 MIRVed, Jane's Defence)
This could be a routine JL-2 SLBM test along the lines of U.S. Trident tests. Or China could be testing the JL-2 MIRV capability. There's no way of knowing until the Pentagon stops being so secretive about Chinese ICBM and SLBM tests.
August 21, 2012: DF-5B silo-based ICBM test (10-MIRVed)
This looks like a test of an upgraded DF-5A ICBM that is capable of carrying 8 to 10 MIRVs (see Richard Fisher citation below).
August 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
The DF-31A was deployed in 2007. This looks like a routine test with a single megaton warhead.
November 30, 2012: DF-31A ICBM test (3-MIRVed)
Why the second DF-31A flight test in three months? Was this a MIRVed test?
The PLA seems to have an awful lot of DF-31A ICBMs to expend on testing. It makes us suspect that the PLA Second Artillery arsenal is quite large and they're just firing off ICBMs and SLBMs like they have a lot of them.
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http://www.strategycenter.net/docLib/20121125_FisherLessisNotEnough112512.pdf
Nuclear Anxieties and the Pivot
...
If one were simply to believe the Pentagon China report’s numbers, from 2011 to 2012 there has been no change in the number of China’s nuclear and non-nuclear ballistic missiles. However, a statement of no-growth in PLA missile numbers over a calendar year is unbelievable given the fact that the PLA is producing two to three types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs: DF-5B (?); DF-31A; DF-41, two types medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM: DF-16, DF-21C/D), developing a new intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM: DF-25/26 (?)),[41] producing two families of long-range cruise missiles (CJ-10, CJ-10K, YJ-63), two families of short range ballistic missiles (SRBM: DF-15A/B/C, DF-11Mod2), and a new submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM: JL-2).
From late July 2012 through September 2012 the PLA Second Artillery conducted a series of exercises, demonstrations and tests of perhaps all of its missile types. This included a 24 July test of the new large mobile DF-41, expected to soon be be tested with a multiple warhead bus, a 16 August test of a new JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile, a 21 August test of a silo-based DF-5 ICBM, a 30 August test of a road-mobile DF-31A ICBM and then the testing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles on the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 4 September 2012 visit to Beijing.[42] Unfortunately the U.S. did not issue any public comments on these PLA missile tests, but simply leaked information about them to veteran reporter Bill Gertz.
Perhaps one of the most important indicators of rapid warhead growth would be deployment of multiple nuclear warheads on their newer missiles. The 2008 China report offered clear language warning of this interest:
Despite the fact that imagery of what may be the DF-41 large mobile ICBM has been available from Chinese sources since 2007, it was not until the 2011 China Report possibly alluded to this missile, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV).”[43] Asian military sources have estimated the DF-41 missile may be capable of carrying 8 to 10 warheads. So for a single brigade unit of 12 missiles this could mean an addition of 96 to 120 warheads for the PLA.
The 2012 China Report does mention an “enhanced silo-based DF-5,” that could be a reference to the “DF-5B,” which in 2010 an Asian military source told the author was a new MIRV version of the DF-5. This missile may also be capable of lofting 8 to 10 warheads. A large, detailed order of battle for the PLA that was posted on Chinese web pages in early 2012 indicates that there may already be two brigades, or up to 24 deployed DF-5B missiles.[44] While many parts of this document cannot be confirmed, it is at least indicative of the speed at which China could increase its nuclear warhead numbers at a time when the Administration may be considering U.S. warhead reductions to below 1,000.
An additional disappointment of 2012 China Report is that it fails to follow up its mention of 2011of the vast “Underground Great Wall” of potentially thousands of kilometers of tunnels that could be concealing a far larger number of nuclear weapons and missiles. The 2011 China Report made special mention of this tunnel network:
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China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch | Washington Free Beacon
"China conducts mobile ICBM test days ahead of expected North Korean launch
BY: Bill Gertz
December 4, 2012 5:00 am
DF-31A
China last week carried out a second flight test of a new long-range mobile missile that is capable of hitting United States cities with a nuclear warhead. The test took place days before North Korea is set to fire its long-range missile, according to U.S. intelligence officials.
U.S. intelligence airborne and space sensors detected the flight test Friday of the road-mobile DF-31A missile as it lifted off from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center. The missile flew west to an impact range in western China.
It was the second DF-31A flight test since August and highlights China’s growing strategic nuclear buildup, a modernization program largely carried out in secret.
The DF-31A test also took place on the last day of a rare U.S.-China military exercise in Chengdu that practiced joint disaster relief efforts.
China is known to use its missile tests to send political signals, as in 1996 when it bracketed Taiwan with missile flight tests that impacted north and south of the island prior to a presidential election.
Analysts say the DF-31A test likely was intended to bolster the Chinese military’s hardline stance toward the United States and particularly the U.S. military, regarded by Beijing as its main adversary.
The most recent DF-31 flight test occurred Aug. 30, also from Wuzhai, located in Shanxi province about 267 miles southwest of Beijing. That missile test involved a single warhead simulation.
However, on July 24 China conducted the first flight test of a newer road-mobile ICBM called the DF-41, which is assessed to be China’s first intercontinental ballistic missile to be equipped with multiple, independently-targetable warheads, or MIRVs.
The DF-31A was first deployed around 2007 and is believed to be capable of carrying up to five warheads. Its maximum range is up to 5,000 miles. There are some indications that the missile also may be deployed on rail cars disguised as passenger trains.
A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the missile launch, citing a policy of not discussing intelligence matters.
“We monitor carefully China’s military developments and urge China to exhibit greater transparency regarding its capabilities and intentions,” the spokeswoman told the Free Beacon.
A Defense Department spokesman said in August in response to the last DF-31A test that the Pentagon “continues to carefully monitor China’s military modernization efforts, including progress in developing its offensive missile force.”
The United States is meanwhile seeking to cut both its missile and nuclear forces under President Barack Obama’s goal of seeking to eliminate nuclear weapons.
Obama said in a speech Monday at the National Defense University, “We’re moving closer to the future that we seek, a future where these weapons never threaten our children again, a future where we know the security and peace of a world without nuclear weapons.”
Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, said the Obama administration should make more information available to the public on China’s strategic nuclear modernization program. Doing so would avoid “a potential nuclear surprise” and make sure “more pressure is placed on China to become transparent in this area.”
“From underground bases and launch pads near Qinghai, China, the DF-31A may have sufficient range to reach U.S. ICBM bases in North Dakota,” Fisher said in an email.
The DF-31A development “suggests that China may be building toward a ‘counterstrike’ strategy that would require the secret buildup of many more missiles and warheads than suggested by public ICBM number estimates made available by the U.S. Intelligence Community,” he said.
Fisher said China may be stockpiling large numbers of “reload” missiles for the mobile DF-31A launchers in its large-scale underground nuclear system, estimated to include 3,000 miles of tunnels.
Additionally, the Chinese government’s constant statements that its nuclear forces are limited to retaliation from a nuclear attack requiring only a small number of missiles are a deception.
“Continuously repeating a consistent message of deception while doing the complete opposite reflects a far older Chinese strategic culture,” Fisher said.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials said a North Korean Taepodong-2 missile is in the final stages of preparation for a test flight that is expected to further raise tensions in the region.
The Taepodong-2 is being readied at a launch facility in North Korea and is being closely watched. U.S. officials said the launch could take place as early as Dec. 10. The last Taepodong-2 launch in April failed shortly after launch.
Georgetown University arms control specialist Phillip A. Karber said the most recent Chinese missile test highlight’s Beijing’s growing strategic arsenal.
“The Chinese commitment to modernizing the full array of their ballistic missile arsenal, from tactical to theater to strategic systems, is evidence of their national commitment to what they call the next revolution in military affairs,” Karber said.
“It is ironic that at a time that they believe they’re riding the wave of the future, the United States has greatly reduced our ability to take advantage of ballistic missiles for our security.”
Karber said the DF-31A is significant because it can strike cities in the continental United States with nuclear weapons.
The two-day U.S.-China military exercise involved U.S. and Chinese officers meeting at a Chinese military barracks in the central Chinese city of Chengdu and discussing how the two militaries would respond to an earthquake in a fictional third country, Associated Press reported Friday from Chengdu.
“I think it’s very conceivable. If there is a country out there, and there inevitably there will be, that will have a natural disaster, and they call for international help, if U.S. forces and Chinese forces respond, then indeed we’ll find ourselves working together in the field,” U.S. Maj. Gen. Stephen Lyons told reporters."
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Alert 5 » China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A - Military Aviation News
"China confirms testing of multi-warhead DF-31A
The PLA Daily published on Dec. 10 carried an article that confirms testing of a new ICBM. The Washington Beacon reported on Dec. 4 that U.S. intelligence detected the launch of a road-mobile DF-31A missile on Nov. 30."
