China 2025-2030: how many 2-trillion-dollar provinces?

[rcrmj]

Chinese companies are indeed fast growing not just at the home market but lots of developing countries.
I have never heard of PayTm and Flipkart, similar to Alipay?


It's very hard to define export specialty.
Every province mentioned has a very broad spectrum of production and export.

these are Indian equivalent Alipay and Timall, but Alibaba group is the major shareholder of these two Indian up-coming IT companies.

 

[Jlaw]

but it is a paradox, RMB wouldnt have a chance to become international currency if we chained ourself up, to become an international currency of settlement you have to venture into the "dragons den". Without this then there is going to be no demand of RMB internationally, then we cannot create a new world order that is in our favour

That is not what is meant by that quote.

 

[Place Of Space]

2-trillion dollar is a huge number, am not sure which provinces can reach the line within 8 years.

 

[Jlaw]

Guangdong should be able to

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Guangdong = California
Jiangsu = New York
Shandong = Texas

 

[AndrewJin]

Jiangsu or Guangdong?
Which will be the first 2-trillion-dollar province?
@GeraltofRivia @rcrmj @Martian2 @shadows888 @Dungeness et al

I think Jiangsu has better county/small city-level economy, more inclusive and balanced.
Guangdong has much potential outside Pearl River Delta.

Nantong City, Jiangsu Province‘ 4th largest (GDP), per capita 7th

Jiangsu's bottom 3 city, Lianyungang

2-trillion dollar is a huge number, am not sure which provinces can reach the line within 8 years.

That's why I set the time to 2025-2030.

 

[AndrewJin]

these are Indian equivalent Alipay and Timall, but Alibaba group is the major shareholder of these two Indian up-coming IT companies.

Financial colonization of 21st century?

 

[shadows888]

2-trillion dollar is a huge number, am not sure which provinces can reach the line within 8 years.

it says 2025-2030. so 13 years away.

 

[AndrewJin]

it says 2025-2030. so 13 years away.

I think 2025-2030 is fair enough for at least big three provinces, Henan or Zhejiang to be the fourth is debatable.

We haven't discussed about provinces in Western China in this thread.
But considering the population, Sichuan Province is a candidate, not in 2025, but 2030-2040.
Sichuan has one top city, Chengdu, and many medium cities like Mianyang and Deyang.
We need to invest more on Sichuan's inter-province transport corridors.
Especially from Sichuan to Silk Road corridor, and along Yangtze River, as well as connection to other Southwest provinces.

If we combine Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality (former city of Sichuan) as one region, total GDP is 0.76 trillion, growth rate >8%, sounds like a better candidate than Zhejiang?

 

[AndrewJin]

Looks like this year's nominal GDP growth rate will be some 5% above the real growth rate.

In dollar terms, 16-18% growth over 2016 GDP.

@cirr Could you elaborate this "16-18%" claim?
Nearly 2 trillion will be added?

 

[rcrmj]

Financial colonization of 21st century?

maybe, same as the American IT companies are controlling world search engines, virtual messengers and blogs````ignorant people think they are just some platforms that can "share" info and embrace connectivities, yes they are true to some extent, but Internet and world wide connectivity dominance gives the U.S the strategic position into the future of virtual world. the blockage of Google/FB and some others are very wise move, so that gave our domoestic IT companies time to be mature````and now our apps and e-commerce are years ahead of the West. I believe most foreign students who are studying abroad would agree with me````our platforms are just so much better, more user-friendly and smooth than theirs.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

@cirr Could you elaborate this "16-18%" claim?
Nearly 2 trillion will be added?

Let me give it a try. I think he was refering to the probable growth rate in current price USD unit. because RMB has appreciated significantly against USD (~6% so far and could be 8% by the year end) this year, this amount will essentially be added to the actual GDP growth rate if we look at GDP in USD. It means the total will be (1+6.5%)x(1+8%)–1=15%.

Naturally people can argue that it should not be considered as real because of favourable exchange rate movement. However one can equally argue that China's GDP growth figure in current price USD was depressed in 2016 due to USD appreciated against RMB.

 

[AndrewJin]

maybe, same as the American IT companies are controlling world search engines, virtual messengers and blogs````ignorant people think they are just some platforms that can "share" info and embrace connectivities, yes they are true to some extent, but Internet and world wide connectivity dominance gives the U.S the strategic position into the future of virtual world. the blockage of Google/FB and some others are very wise move, so that gave our domoestic IT companies time to be mature````and now our apps and e-commerce are years ahead of the West. I believe most foreign students who are studying abroad would agree with me````our platforms are just so much better, more user-friendly and smooth than theirs.

Yes, theirs suck, I have tried.

Let me give it a try. I think he was refering to the probable growth rate in current price USD unit. because RMB has appreciated significantly against USD (~6% so far and could be 8% by the year end) this year, this amount will essentially be added to the actual GDP growth rate if we look at GDP in USD. It means the total will be (1+6.5%)x(1+8%)–1=15%.

Naturally people can argue that it should not be considered as real because of favourable exchange rate movement. However one can equally argue that China's GDP growth figure in current price USD was depressed in 2016 due to USD appreciated against RMB.

But according to those self-titled PDF MasterEconomists, China's economy is shrinking, and shrinking by adding some supapowa every 3 years (now 1-2 years???)

 

[cirr]

@cirr Could you elaborate this "16-18%" claim?
Nearly 2 trillion will be added?

Ballpark figures

(1) 7% or thereabout real growth
(2) 5% GDP deflator
(3) 6% year-end yuan appreciation agaist USD

2017 GDP 13 trillion USD.

With the planned adoption of SNA2008 and assuming further small (2-3%)rise of yuan vs dollar next year, 2018 GDP should be around 16 trillion USD.

The government might, of course, choose to leave out some items in the calculation of GDP so that China remains the No. 2 economy longer than otherwise necessary .

 

[AndrewJin]

Ballpark figures

(1) 7% or thereabout real growth
(2) 5% GDP deflator
(3) 6% year-end yuan appreciation agaist USD

2017 GDP 13 trillion USD.

With the planned adoption of SNA2008 and assuming further small (2-3%)rise of yuan vs dollar next year, 2018 GDP should be around 16 trillion USD.

The government might, of course, choose to leave out some items in the calculation of GDP so that China remains the No. 2 economy longer than otherwise necessary .

I hope China could delay using SNA2008!
What do you think?
@TaiShang @Martian2 @Shotgunner51 @terranMarine et al