China 2025-2030: how many 2-trillion-dollar provinces?

[Martian2]

I hope China could delay using SNA2008!
What do you think?
@TaiShang @Martian2 @Shotgunner51 @terranMarine et al

I think China is delaying the implementation of the SNA2008 accounting method to make its GDP look smaller.

If China updated its GDP with the SNA2008, it creates problems.

Firstly, China's GDP would look a lot bigger. Adding one or two trillion would create additional pressure from currency traders to appreciate the value of the Chinese currency. A higher-valued Chinese Yuan means Chinese exports cost more, which results in a loss of jobs.

Secondly, a larger GDP means there would be more worldwide pressure for China to assume leadership responsibilities. There would be more calls for China to contribute more money to international organizations.

Thirdly, a larger GDP would cause more nations (such as the US and European countries) to demand more access to the now-humongous Chinese market.

Given all of the negative effects, I expect China to delay implementing the SNA2008 for as long as possible (probably at least five years of foot-dragging).

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Yes, theirs suck, I have tried.


But according to those self-titled PDF MasterEconomists, China's economy is shrinking, and shrinking by adding some supapowa every 3 years (now 1-2 years???)

well, that must be in the parallel universe

I think China is delaying the implementation of the SNA2008 accounting method to make its GDP look smaller.

If China updated its GDP with the SNA2008, it creates problems.

Firstly, China's GDP would look a lot bigger. Adding one or two trillion would create additional pressure from currency traders to appreciate the value of the Chinese currency. A higher-valued Chinese Yuan means Chinese exports cost more, which results in a loss of jobs.

Secondly, a larger GDP means there would be more worldwide pressure for China to assume leadership responsibilities. There would be more calls for China to contribute more money to international organizations.

Thirdly, a larger GDP would cause more nations (such as the US and European countries) to demand more access to the now-humongous Chinese market.

Given all of the negative effects, I expect China to delay implementing the SNA2008 for as long as possible (probably at least five years of foot-dragging).

Totally agreed. I dont see much benefit in switching to the new standard, which has greater coverage on service sector and treats R&D as investment. Changing to the new standard can be problematic as you want to re-calculate the historical data for various purposes and redo all the forecast. not fun...

 

[AndrewJin]

I think China is delaying the implementation of the SNA2008 accounting method to make its GDP look smaller.

If China updated its GDP with the SNA2008, it creates problems.

Firstly, China's GDP would look a lot bigger. Adding one or two trillion would create additional pressure from currency traders to appreciate the value of the Chinese currency. A higher-valued Chinese Yuan means Chinese exports cost more, which results in a loss of jobs.

Secondly, a larger GDP means there would be more worldwide pressure for China to assume leadership responsibilities. There would be more calls for China to contribute more money to international organizations.

Thirdly, a larger GDP would cause more nations (such as the US and European countries) to demand more access to the now-humongous Chinese market.

Given all of the negative effects, I expect China to delay implementing the SNA2008 for as long as possible (probably at least five years of foot-dragging).

Agree!

 

[cirr]

Agree!

What's your take on Shenzhen surpassing HK in 2018?

350 billion USD

 

[AndrewJin]

What's your take on Shenzhen surpassing HK in 2018?

350 billion USD

Have you heard of 2016 GDP revision?
It has included R&D, but still underestimated China's GDP.
This new regime China will adopt nationwide is far from SNA2008.
So the increase of GDP calculation is quite conservative.

 

[AndrewJin]

It's near the end of 2017.
Any updates?
@TaiShang @Dungeness @Two @Jlaw @samsara @Han Patriot @cirr @terranMarine @rcrmj et al

By ASIA TIMES STAFF DECEMBER 6, 2017 10:44 AM (UTC+8)

Guangzhou, the capital city of Guangdong, which was the third largest Chinese city by GDP for 27 years, has been surpassed by Shenzhen, whose GDP exceeded two trillion yuan in 2016 for the first time, Yicai.com reported.

According to the Statistic Bureau of Guangdong province, after the revision, Shenzhen’s GDP in 2016 totalled 2,007.86 billion yuan (US$303.37 billion), an increase of 58.6 billion yuan, as it became the third city to break through the two trillion yuan mark following Shanghai and Beijing.

Meanwhile, Guangzhou only recorded 1,980.54 billion yuan after the revision.

Lin Jiang, the deputy director of the Free Trade Zone Integrated Research Institute at Sun Yat-sen University, thinks Shenzhen is facing a crisis because of its limited land area of less than 2,000 square kilometers. Shenzhen, however, is more willing to experiment with innovations.

According to the report, Guangzhou, with an area over 7,000 square kilometers, is less anxious about developing new industries and relies on its strong petrochemical and automotive industries.

“In recent years, much of the incremental GDP has come mainly from science, technology and high-tech industries rather than traditional industries,” Lin added.

 

[cirr]

Ballpark figures

(1) 7% or thereabout real growth
(2) 5% GDP deflator
(3) 6% year-end yuan appreciation agaist USD

2017 GDP 13 trillion USD.

With the planned adoption of SNA2008 and assuming further small (2-3%)rise of yuan vs dollar next year, 2018 GDP should be around 16 trillion USD.

The government might, of course, choose to leave out some items in the calculation of GDP so that China remains the No. 2 economy longer than otherwise necessary .

12.75 trillion USD

 

[terranMarine]

SZ

 

[TaiShang]

12.75 trillion USD

Hopefully, even though SNA2008 is adopted, some of the items will be left out so that the GDP would not appear to be catching up with that of the US. That would create, as @Martian2 pointed out, unnecessary headaches and expectations from both friends and foes.

Better not to disturb so far fairly-well functioning global system policed by the US. Even though they may have some tantrums against China here and there, they better remain world policeman because this makes them relatively weaker every passing year with greater economic and military burden.

Let the people of China judge their level of development and optimism toward future. Outside recognition or acknowledgement is of zero value.

 

[AndrewJin]

Hopefully, even though SNA2008 is adopted, some of the items will be left out so that the GDP would not appear to be catching up with that of the US. That would create, as @Martian2 pointed out, unnecessary headaches and expectations from both friends and foes.

Better not to disturb so far fairly-well functioning global system policed by the US. Even though they may have some tantrums against China here and there, they better remain world policeman because this makes them relatively weaker every passing year with greater economic and military burden.

Let the people of China judge their level of development and optimism toward future. Outside recognition or acknowledgement is of zero value.

R&D is a good new part, other SNA2008 creations are just craps.

 

[AViet]

At that time, GDP will not be calculated in US$ anymore, hopefully.

 

[Han Patriot]

well, that must be in the parallel universe



Totally agreed. I dont see much benefit in switching to the new standard, which has greater coverage on service sector and treats R&D as investment. Changing to the new standard can be problematic as you want to re-calculate the historical data for various purposes and redo all the forecast. not fun...

contrast this humility with our supa powan who try their best to increase their GDP.

 

[TaiShang]

contrast this humility with our supa powan who try their best to increase their GDP.

Strategic and pragmatic thinking with a healthy dose of humility. LOL. SP2012.

 

[American Pakistani]

I wish Pakistan had leaders like China.

I'm happy for China though.

 

[AndrewJin]

I think after this year's geopolitical changes we've seen so far, this goal will be much earlier to be achieved.
Your opinions?
@TaiShang @cirr @long_ @terranMarine @Jlaw et al

I change my vote from 4 to 5.

5 two-trillion-dollar economies and numerous one-trillion dollar economies.