At present, it can be assumed that the future outlook for peace, stability and development in Afghanistan depends on the approach that both the government as well as official and unofficial opposition groups will take to these elections and their consequences. This means that if the exclusionist tendency of the Pashtun ethnic group as well as ideological exclusionism of the Taliban, who are also of Pashtun origin, are not adapted to new conditions, there will be a high risk for the resurgence of a serious ethnic crisis in the country. It will be more so if the vote count and final result of the elections lead to disillusionment of non-Pashtun ethnic groups and prompt, for example, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to refuse the election results that would not be in line with the general expectations in the society. Under such a scenario, the possibility of intense ethnic and religious rivalries in Afghanistan will be greatly increased. On the other hand, such state of affairs will have the potential to affect the neighboring countries of Afghanistan as well. Possible ethnic division in Afghanistan will pit Pashtuns, on the one side, against non-Pashtuns, including Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazara Shias, on the other side.
In parallel to such domestic developments in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and, to some extent, Turkey, which collectively play a part in Afghanistan’s developments, will possibly take sides with Pashtuns. On the other hand, Iran, India and some countries in Central Asia will find themselves obliged to takes sides with non-Pashtun ethnic groups, which seek to see changes in the country’s power structure. In fact, the presidential and local council elections in Afghanistan will most probably face the Afghan society with serious challenges at two general levels and through two mechanisms:
Afghanistan Elections: Challenges and Opportunities
