Blame China? Why not to blame yourself first !

[beijingwalker]

How can some one became as close as India to Bangladesh..
1.Same culture,language,religion.
2.same clothes like lungi,dhoti,saree,Kurta..
3.Shared river,shared border...
4.Direct rail,bus,boat,ship link...
5.Govts of both sides supporting each other..
Hahaha..China ..nothing common..get lost..

Some logic goes to the relations between China(PRC), ORC(Taiwan), Singapore, Japan, Koreas..

 

[UKBengali]

It won't.

You do not know that and I did use the word "theoretically". For what BD can export China will have as many consumers as the whole west combined by 2030 that can pay the same price for the goods.
We shall have to wait and see as no-one can tell the future.

I'm not talking about ruining relation with China. We will retain good relation with China and you'll see it. But really how much 1% advantage and 5 addition years of grace period is worth?

Actually it is a lot, both the 5 year grace period and also the extra 1% interest rate.

Suppose BD borrows 20 billion US dollars at 3.5% interest rate from a commercial back with no grace period and also the same amount but with 2.5% interest rate from China and 5 year grace period. Assume repayment is 20 years which i am not sure if a commercial bank will give to BD.

Bank - Repayments start after 1 year and so BD has to pay back 1 billion dollar plus 3.5% in the first year. It currently has revenue of around 30 billion US dollars(forecast to rise to 34 billion next year) and so has to find this money out of this. So 3.1 % of BD government revenue has to be found after 1 year to cover this loan repayment.

China - No repayments for 5 years and BD revenues will have arisen to 55 billion US dollars (assume IMF 7% economic growth and revenues rise from current 10.5% to 13.5% of GDP). After 5 year grace period, with interest of 2.5% annually the debt is now 22.6 billion US dollar. BD will pay 2.7% of it's revenue as the first tranche of payment. If China has given loan with 3.5% interest then BD would have to pay 2.9% of it's revenue as loan repayment after 5 years.

This would be too complicated to work out all in detail but you get the idea why 5 years grace period and even lowering of the interest rate by 1% makes a big difference. And remember with the Chinese grace period, BD has 5 years where it can spend many billions of US dollars on other things like education, health infrastructure etc.

 

[ashok mourya]

Some logic goes to the relations between China(PRC), ORC(Taiwan), Singapore, Japan, Koreas..

Yes..PRC ROC ...actually just divided by political lines...we can apply same to north and south Korea...But people are mostly same ethnicity..

 

[bd_4_ever]

What do we do if they don't listen to our concern and works it out with Myanmar?

I've repeated this before as well - we reduce our military dependence on them. That's the first and foremost step we should take. Expand military ties with Turkey and EU (we should be doing it anyway) and build up our military complexes. Under this scenario, the Burmese would be obliged to be careful with their monkey-business within and around our border. Be dead sure, China and India can only provide lip-service and will never intervene militarily on their behalf. Couple of days of cross-border firing and you will see Suu Kyi and Hasina being invited to Beijing/Delhi.

And if you are worried that China will pull its economic plug in Bangladesh, then rest assured, that will never happen. BD has lots to provide to China in the future then Burma can ever dream to match. The Chinese are businessmen and they know it too.

 

[beijingwalker]

Yes..PRC ROC ...actually just divided by political lines...we can apply same to north and south Korea...But people are mostly same ethnicity..

Same blood and culture never guarantees close relationships.

 

[Mage]

Get your facts straight, more than once we tried to convince them to adopt our open door policies right after we took this path and more than once they refused. They are afraid of losing their power once they follow China's reform. Stubbornly sticking to Soviet style managing the country is exact reason for this mess and you blame China for mismanaging their country? How ridiculous.

I blame China? No dude. A good portion of the world do that.

You do not know that and I did use the word "theoretically". For what BD can export China will have as many consumers as the whole west combined by 2030 that can pay the same price for the goods.
We shall have to wait and see as no-one can tell the future.



Actually it is a lot, both the 5 year grace period and also the extra 1% interest rate.

Suppose BD borrows 20 billion US dollars at 3.5% interest rate from a commercial back with no grace period and also the same amount but with 2.5% interest rate from China and 5 year grace period. Assume repayment is 20 years which i am not sure if a commercial bank will give to BD.

Bank - Repayments start after 1 year and so BD has to pay back 1 billion dollar plus 3.5% in the first year. It currently has revenue of around 30 billion US dollars(forecast to rise to 34 billion next year) and so has to find this money out of this. So 3.1 % of BD government revenue has to be found after 1 year to cover this loan repayment.

China - No repayments for 5 years and BD revenues will have arisen to 55 billion US dollars (assume IMF 7% economic growth and revenues rise from current 10.5% to 13.5% of GDP). After 5 year grace period, with interest of 2.5% annually the debt is now 22.6 billion US dollar. BD will pay 2.7% of it's revenue as the first tranche of payment. If China has given loan with 3.5% interest then BD would have to pay 2.9% of it's revenue as loan repayment after 5 years.

This would be too complicated to work out all in detail but you get the idea why 5 years grace period and even lowering of the interest rate by 1% makes a big difference. And remember with the Chinese grace period, BD has 5 years where it can spend many billions of US dollars on other things like education, health infrastructure etc.

Well you're too optimistic. I agree with the loan part though. But I think Loki can say more about it.

I've repeated this before as well - we reduce our military dependence on them. That's the first and foremost step we should take. Expand military ties with Turkey and EU (we should be doing it anyway) and build up our military complexes. Under this scenario, the Burmese would be obliged to be careful with their monkey-business within and around our border. Be dead sure, China and India can only provide lip-service and will never intervene militarily on their behalf. Couple of days of cross-border firing and you will see Suu Kyi and Hasina being invited to Beijing/Delhi.

And if you are worried that China will pull its economic plug in Bangladesh, then rest assured, that will never happen. BD has lots to provide to China in the future then Burma can ever dream to match. The Chinese are businessmen and they know it too.

Which of it is dependent on China working things with Myanmar?
We need to decrease our dependency regardless of their stance. Build a stronger military and look at what others can offer.

 

[ashok mourya]

Same blood and culture never guarantees close relationships.

Yes but a person from Korea feel more closer to each other as a person from Kenya feels to a Zimbabwean.

 

[beijingwalker]

I blame China? No dude. A good portion of the world do that.

The western portion I guess. China can't handle N.Korea, it is a sovereign country, that's a western mentality of controlling other countries.

Ethnic Mongol spokeswoman from Chinese foreign affair ministry answering question raised by western reporters of China losing control of North Korea.

 

[Nabil365]

T

No one is pro China but pro national interests,

Thailand, SK( not anymore after THADD conflict), many more from Asean and Africa, you should know that China adding entire india's GDP in every 3 years time, more than 33% of World's GDP growth came from China, this world would become far worse without China's growth.

You still didn't answer the question.

 

[bd_4_ever]

Which of it is dependent on China working things with Myanmar?
We need to decrease our dependency regardless of their stance. Build a stronger military and look at what others can offer.

What is dependent is our own perceived military strength that Myanmar isn't taking too seriously as they are confident of getting the better of us if a conflict strikes. Why else do you think they violated our airspace more than 15 times? As our all military eggs are in Chinese basket, Myanmar is confident that they can convince China to halt supplies to us or embolden theirs. What would you do then? Accept the military humiliation above the diplomatic loss that we already suffered?

We need to decrease our dependency but we aren't doing it as we speak and that is precisely the problem. If we had arms supplies from Turkey/EU and we go into a hypothetical conflict considering that China decides to arm Burma, then we would see why dependency is an issue.

 

[Mage]

The western portion I guess. China can't handle N.Korea, it is a sovereign country, that's a western mentality of controlling other countries.

Ethnic Mongol spokeswoman from Chinese foreign affair ministry answering question raised by western reporters of China losing control of North Korea.

Did China not help NK to become what it now have become? Did China have no support?

 

[beijingwalker]

Did China not help NK to become what it now have become? Did China have no support?

N.Korea chose its own course which is the opposite to ours and there's nothing we can do about it. We didn't stop them from choosing other paths. We do business with them, yes, but we never forced business on them. be their failure or other countries, China is not to be blamed for that.

 

[Chhatrapati]

The western portion I guess. China can't handle N.Korea, it is a sovereign country, that's a western mentality of controlling other countries.

Ethnic Mongol spokeswoman from Chinese foreign affair ministry answering question raised by western reporters of China losing control of North Korea.

Stop bullshitting. You claim you don't interfere in other countries internal affairs, but all along you are doing it. To protect your interest or your allies interest. I can put a lot of examples, just to prove the point. You are acting just like the west or worst when it comes to influencing a countries decision.

You have enough control over North Korea but you are scared to crap to do anything about it. NK have an unstable crazy fat kid if anything go bad, China will be f'ed, be it a nuclear melt down or a conventional war. That's the only reason you didn't do anything about it. Don't claim it's some internal stuff of xyz country that China can't interfere.

 

[beijingwalker]

Stop bullshitting.

That's what Indians can do the best. China won't poke sticks at N.Korea no matter how hard the west eggs us on and why you Indians are so upset? You self claimed supa pooer can go to N.Korea and talk them out of it.

 

[Chhatrapati]

That's what Indians can do the best. China won't poke sticks at N.Korea no matter how hard the west eggs us on and why you Indians are so upset? You self claimed supa pooer can go to N.Korea and talk them out of it.

yeah yea! Go on hide under verbiage. That's the best you can come up with.