I have contrarian view here.
First blunder, post Afghan war and through out the 90s, Pakistan was following a policy of appeasement. The Taliban were kept happy with a free border, given diplomatic recognition, life was good, meanwhile gun culture, drug culture, sectarianism was at full play but what the hell, as long as Taliban are accommodated, the bloody civilians are a secondary concern.
And then 9/11 happened, you had in Musharraf a perfect guy on your side, if you were an American. Taliban not letting go of Al Qaeda, Americans bombed Afghanistan, NA on American side, emergence of ISIS and Afghanistan was basically a free for all. Thinking dispassionately, until this moment, Pakistan couldn’t be blamed for a whole lot what happened, especially post 9/11 until a few months later. The Americans would have arm twisted the best of the leaders to take its side. You can only hold on to a raging bull for so long. Although the situation could have been managed better, which I will talk about.
And then.
Second blunder, post Afghan invasion, you had Musharraf and subsequent leaders essentially allowing Americans to operate drones on FATA and thereabouts. You have an army which eats up 35% of your budget and you allow a 3rd force to operate in your airspace and kill as they will. The CSF funds, US Aid, drone for $ income stream was probably too tempting to let go. This move alone convinced alot of folks in KP and Balochistan to turn their guns against you.
Third blunder, you thought you can manage the situation by playing double games with Americans, by making side dealings with Taliban. While you were turning a blind eye on drone strikes within Pakistan’s borders, you were inviting the Talibans and tribals for a jirga. You think the Taliban or the tribals won’t see through your hypocrisy. Essentially you were sandwich fcuked and then there was a blowback starting from TTP, an offspring of Taliban (fcuk off to guys who think there is a good Taliban or bad Taliban) and on the other side the Americans had ears and eyes on all your dealings. Remember the do more, do more mantra. If you thought you were genius, the Americans introduced FATF and other legislations punishing you.
Then somehow, a miracle struck and you woke up from a slumber and you conducted an operation in FATA. You demonstrated against conventional thinking that an operation against TTP (aka Taliban offshoot), AQ, ISIS, BLA can be done and successfully. You clean up a huge swaths of land that was infested with terrorists. Another good thing was the border fencing.
But then, you commit a fourth blunder, you rested on your laurels and took the accelerator off and became busy with what you love ie political engineering. The Americans wanted a safe exit. What you could have done is have the foresight to engage them in a better way and made sure that Taliban don’t end up with all the weapons US left behind. Don’t tell me you didn’t know this, with 3 decades of dealings. The Taliban in full control of Taliban are essentially following their own agenda.
So what is happening now is a culmination of the above and much more.
You have Taliban giving you a middle finger, and coordinating closely with TTP, BLA or at best turning a blind eye to their activities.
And on the other side, the Americans are not interested in your games anymore and add to that the geo political situation of American allying with India. All in all you are irrelevant. The heydays of duplicity of receiving CSF funds and managing Taliban’s blowback are over.
So now, what next?
You course correct. You get your act together, sit down with the tribals and control the movement on the border and be prepared for a long drawn out low intensity conflict with these nut jobs. Surely, there will be casualties on your end but this is what needs to be done. If needed then an operation like Zarbeazb should be in the works.
I can’t stress this enough but the Taliban are a force of extremism and the only language they understand is force. By Taliban I mean Taliban, TTP, BLA, Good, Bad, Neutral Taliban etc. You tell them to remain within their borders and any movement towards Pakistan’s borders will be met with overwhelming force.
Enough of my rants.