By: Asim Aquil
2011: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ON TENTERHOOKS
Inspired by the possibility of facing defeat in the courts over the memo-gate issue, the frail PPP government came eyeball to eyeball with the military in a daring move, the Prime Minister presented a charge-sheet against the military in the Pakistani parliament.
It seemed that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had learnt a key tactic from his American allies in dealing with the wayward: The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani backs off if one is able to speak louder than him.
PM Gilanis gamble worked, with the COAS announcing the very next day that there should be no fear or speculation of any impending coup. While people hailed the fact that another coup had been averted, in actuality the military had no other play. It could only give mean looks to the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), with the PPP government staring them down hard in return.
There is no constitutional method left to oust the incumbent President or his point man, the Prime Minister: their party enjoys two-thirds majority in the Parliament; they will secure the senate soon; there is no possibility of an impeachment or a vote of no-confidence a move that would lead to mid-term elections.
Even if the Supreme Court finds President Zardari guilty of high treason, and even if his immunity magically does not fly, all the apex court can do is direct the police to arrest the President, which would refuse to follow that order.
STALEMATE
As expected, the judiciary preemptively refused to sanction any coup that may take place. Historically the Supreme Court has rubber stamped all military coups, but this time around it was in no mood to validate any such move by the army.
The sentiment is also shared by the public which is in no mood to honor a military coup. What to say about the international community that is already sharpening its knives waiting for Pakistan to make a blunder to pounce then.
If a coup were to come about, in one swift move it would have shifted the blame of the OBL raid, Shamsi airbase, drone attacks, Raymond Davis, Mehran Base attack and of course the recent Nato attack from the government to the military.
The democratically-elected government would have been parroting its favourite line: The Army is not under its control.
The coup would have also washed away corruption scandals of the PPP and wiped off the poor management during the floods. The power generation crisis created by this government would have been forgotten. Target killings, dengue epidemic, disobedience towards the judiciary, gang wars, missing persons, Benazir Bhuttos assassination, Salman Taseers assassination all would have been like they never happened. Or worse: they would have been gifted to the new military-installed government.
In short, the PPP government would have been handed down a clean slate and would have come out on the other side refreshed, cleaned and strong. In fact, some circles say that the PPP is dying to be declared a political martyr.
The best move General Kayani is left with is to give Zardari enough rope to hang himself. The military should keep about their wits. They have the option to bring out as much dirt as they can on these failed leaders over the next year. The judiciary is playing ball and embarrassing the government every chance they get. These failures may translate into an electoral defeat for the PPP come election time.
Ironically, the better victory for the military will be through the ballot box. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) has promised a Tsunami given the wave of politicians signing up under the Imran Khan banner. PTIs views closely match those of the military.
The untainted Imran Khan also promises to run a clean and efficient operation that may uplift the economy and fill in the national coffers. Without the economy turning around even the military itself might find hard to function.
So the powers that be may be tempted to hurry up with a PTI win before the echoes of typical turncoats based party becomes synonymous with the PTI, mellowing down Imran Khans Tsunami. But the military should look at the trade-off of going for the kill now over how much power the PTI can really wield if it broke to the scene right now.
This COAS has been the most favorable to democratic norms and values in Pakistans history. General Kayani must realize the importance of a democratically elected government handing over the reins to another democratically elected government after completing its term.
Moreover the economy is in shambles and there is a slim chance any new government would be able to turn our financial woes around. It would just simply share the blame that would have otherwise fallen on the PPP. The mess in Pakistan is bound to last out at least for another year, the power crisis, the floods and the outbreak of dengue fever are all due for another round coupled with the foreign policy blunders PPP is bound to make.
So whats the hurry?
Your move, chief! | Pakistan Defence
2011: CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS ON TENTERHOOKS
Inspired by the possibility of facing defeat in the courts over the memo-gate issue, the frail PPP government came eyeball to eyeball with the military in a daring move, the Prime Minister presented a charge-sheet against the military in the Pakistani parliament.
It seemed that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani had learnt a key tactic from his American allies in dealing with the wayward: The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani backs off if one is able to speak louder than him.
PM Gilanis gamble worked, with the COAS announcing the very next day that there should be no fear or speculation of any impending coup. While people hailed the fact that another coup had been averted, in actuality the military had no other play. It could only give mean looks to the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), with the PPP government staring them down hard in return.
There is no constitutional method left to oust the incumbent President or his point man, the Prime Minister: their party enjoys two-thirds majority in the Parliament; they will secure the senate soon; there is no possibility of an impeachment or a vote of no-confidence a move that would lead to mid-term elections.
Even if the Supreme Court finds President Zardari guilty of high treason, and even if his immunity magically does not fly, all the apex court can do is direct the police to arrest the President, which would refuse to follow that order.
STALEMATE
As expected, the judiciary preemptively refused to sanction any coup that may take place. Historically the Supreme Court has rubber stamped all military coups, but this time around it was in no mood to validate any such move by the army.
The sentiment is also shared by the public which is in no mood to honor a military coup. What to say about the international community that is already sharpening its knives waiting for Pakistan to make a blunder to pounce then.
If a coup were to come about, in one swift move it would have shifted the blame of the OBL raid, Shamsi airbase, drone attacks, Raymond Davis, Mehran Base attack and of course the recent Nato attack from the government to the military.
The democratically-elected government would have been parroting its favourite line: The Army is not under its control.
The coup would have also washed away corruption scandals of the PPP and wiped off the poor management during the floods. The power generation crisis created by this government would have been forgotten. Target killings, dengue epidemic, disobedience towards the judiciary, gang wars, missing persons, Benazir Bhuttos assassination, Salman Taseers assassination all would have been like they never happened. Or worse: they would have been gifted to the new military-installed government.
In short, the PPP government would have been handed down a clean slate and would have come out on the other side refreshed, cleaned and strong. In fact, some circles say that the PPP is dying to be declared a political martyr.
The best move General Kayani is left with is to give Zardari enough rope to hang himself. The military should keep about their wits. They have the option to bring out as much dirt as they can on these failed leaders over the next year. The judiciary is playing ball and embarrassing the government every chance they get. These failures may translate into an electoral defeat for the PPP come election time.
Ironically, the better victory for the military will be through the ballot box. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) has promised a Tsunami given the wave of politicians signing up under the Imran Khan banner. PTIs views closely match those of the military.
The untainted Imran Khan also promises to run a clean and efficient operation that may uplift the economy and fill in the national coffers. Without the economy turning around even the military itself might find hard to function.
So the powers that be may be tempted to hurry up with a PTI win before the echoes of typical turncoats based party becomes synonymous with the PTI, mellowing down Imran Khans Tsunami. But the military should look at the trade-off of going for the kill now over how much power the PTI can really wield if it broke to the scene right now.
This COAS has been the most favorable to democratic norms and values in Pakistans history. General Kayani must realize the importance of a democratically elected government handing over the reins to another democratically elected government after completing its term.
Moreover the economy is in shambles and there is a slim chance any new government would be able to turn our financial woes around. It would just simply share the blame that would have otherwise fallen on the PPP. The mess in Pakistan is bound to last out at least for another year, the power crisis, the floods and the outbreak of dengue fever are all due for another round coupled with the foreign policy blunders PPP is bound to make.
So whats the hurry?
Your move, chief! | Pakistan Defence
