World looks anew on Balochistan as China dreams big

[Argus Panoptes]

We finally have political parties mature enough to keep military out of politics. Thanks to internet there is a general awakening in youth about their rights. Judiciary has never been that active or that blunt. Media is discussing matters which never became a part of public domain.

Army always used Mullahs for their backup (its been the same since medieval times) but TTP has finally alienated a common man from Islamist groups. All in all things are moving in a positive direction.

Hum ko maaloom hey jannat kee haqiqat leykin
Dil key behlaaney ko Ghalib khayal achcha hey

The present situation is only a veneer. Underneath is the familiar decay of decades past. To regard this as a harbinger of some sort of political spring is a fallacy.

 

[Sedqal]

Hum ko maaloom hey jannat kee haqiqat leykin
Dil key behlaaney ko Ghalib khayal achcha hey

The present situation is only a veneer. Underneath is the familiar decay of decades past. To regard this as a harbinger of some sort of political spring is a fallacy.

Oh' Argus always the pessimist

 

[A1Kaid]

If Pakistan cannot develop Balochistan then take China's help and develop Balochistan, China has a lot of capital it is willing to invest in Balochistan and locals will benefit with tens of thousands of new jobs being created.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

Oh' Argus always the pessimist

No Sir, I am a realist. I actually look for evidence before evaluating it. Let us assume that you are right and I am wrong. Please present the evidence that supports your case:

1. Are our political parties mature? Are they holding internal elections regularly and releasing their accounts?

2. Are the youth awakened enough to make real change or merely charged up to hold rallies that achieve nothing?

3. Is the Judiciary really providing justice or picking and choosing sides with overt politicization?

4. Is the media really free or is it being bought as mouthpieces?

5. Has the Army changed its policy of using Mullahs (and other proxies) as needed?

Only then can we talk about whether things are moving in a positive direction. Or not.

 

[Sedqal]

No Sir, I am a realist. I actually look for evidence before evaluating it. Let us assume that you are right and I am wrong. Please present the evidence that supports your case:

1. Are our political parties mature? Are they holding internal elections regularly and releasing their accounts?

2. Are the you awakened enough to make real change or merely charged up to hold rallies that achieve nothing?

3. Is the Judiciary really providing justice or picking and choosing sides with overt politicization?

4. Is the media really free or is it being bought as mouthpieces?

5. Has the Army changed its policy of using Mullahs (and other proxies) as needed?

Only then can we talk about whether things are moving in a positive direction. Or not.

1- They know enough not to drag Army in politics - rest of the things will happen with time. Being a realist you should acknowledge a) Don't expect the same finesse as established democracies b)internal elections have been blown out of proportion.

2- Real change has happened, could anyone dream an ex-COAS will be running from court to court? Or courts summoning MI and ISI?

3- Judiciary is really providing justice and has been the only one who really stood up to high handedness of Army. Look at how they are tackling the missing persons cases. If we ignore other venues only Judiciary is capable of reigning in the army.

4- There are mouth-pieces but still when the current mess is discussed negative role of army does come into focus. Look at Dr. End of Times, he is among the biggest touts of army but was forced to condemn them after OBL commission report.

5- They are still stuck on Afghan Taliban but how many Mullahs in Pakistan will trust Army now? Mullahs were the biggest casualty of Lal Mosque because they didn't condemn Musharraf openly (due to being in govt). Army is being bashed daily after terrorist attacks and they simply can't ignore public opinion.

NS has really learned his lesson. He is slowly removing the reason which allow Army to interfere (thus their power). Look at Baluchistan! Army can make a comeback in politics through PTI only (and I can't vouch for them) or maybe through MQM (if they can influence the British).

 

[Argus Panoptes]

1- They know enough not to drag Army in politics - rest of the things will happen with time. Being a realist you should acknowledge a) Don't expect the same finesse as established democracies b)internal elections have been blown out of proportion.

2- Real change has happened, could anyone dream an ex-COAS will be running from court to court? Or courts summoning MI and ISI?

3- Judiciary is really providing justice and has been the only one who really stood up to high handedness of Army. Look at how they are tackling the missing persons cases. If we ignore other venues only Judiciary is capable of reigning in the army.

4- There are mouth-pieces but still when the current mess is discussed negative role of army does come into focus. Look at Dr. End of Times, he is among the biggest touts of army but was forced to condemn them after OBL commission report.

5- They are still stuck on Afghan Taliban but how many Mullahs in Pakistan will trust Army now? Mullahs were the biggest casualty of Lal Mosque because they didn't condemn Musharraf openly (due to being in govt). Army is being bashed daily after terrorist attacks and they simply can't ignore public opinion.

NS has really learned his lesson. He is slowly removing the reason which allow Army to interfere (thus their power). Look at Baluchistan! Army can make a comeback in politics through PTI only (and I can't vouch for them) or maybe through MQM (if they can influence the British).

1. The Army boot the parties out when it wants; the parties do not drag the Army anywhere.

2. A few hearings is change? That is only to give the impression that the courts are powerful, which they are not. They know their limits are set elsewhere.

3. Is there actually a verdict in any meaningful case, including the missing person's case? What about the CJ's own son?

4. The OBL report condemnation is only a short flash in the pan. The mouthpieces being bought and sold means that money will continue to corrupt any media coverage.

5. The Army cannot ignore public opinion? Hahaha. They will do whatever they want whenever they want. Right now they don't want to deal with the mess up front, but only behind the scenes. What they are doing in Afghanistan is going to affect all of us and they are doing what they damn well please.

Lastly, NS is playing by a set rulebook handed to him.

 

[That Guy]

So many contradictions in your exposition - You say it's naive and ignorant to suggest that the Pakistan army has a Mercenary Ethic - You then proceed to confirm that it in fact does, you argue " what else could we do?"

You are also mistaken about Chinese policy, after all, Gwadar is a new dynamic, where as Chinese policy has been rather consistent.

@Pakistanisage and Chinese friends and brother ally will find your suggestion that we can never be friends interesting and you owe it to them to explain why

It seems that you either didn't read my comment properly or are choosing to ignore most of what I said. if you seriously think that I'm proving your argument of mercenary ethics right, the you're sadly mistaken.

Pakistan's army is not a mercenary army, because in order to be a mercenary force (in this case) it would suggest that Pakistan is profiting from the war, which it is obviously not. Both the military and the economy have lost more from this war than they've gained and don't try to suggest otherwise, because you know this is true.

Being forced to fight and profiting from a war are two different things. Pakistan's army is being forced to fight, as it would have had to deal with international isolation if it didn't. Why is that so hard for you to understand?

You seem to be of the belief that if you repeat something enough times, it'll become true. This claim of yours is nothing more than an invalid argument that people seem to use to criticise the PA. If you want to criticise the PA then use valid arguments next time, preferably with examples.

I'm also not suggesting that Pakistani and Chinese people can't be friends, but I question whether the governments (in private) really care about so called "friendship"? History has proven that no two nations are the best of friends, only allies at best. That is what Pakistan and China's relationship is, one of mutual understanding and benefit (i.e ally), that's hardly indicative of friendship.

Can you honestly say with complete confidence that if Pakistan had absolutely nothing to offer to China, that China would really care about Pakistan or it's well being?

Can you honestly say with complete confidence that if the US continued to support Pakistan in the 80s and 90s, instead of putting sanctions on Pakistan, that Pakistan would really care about Chinese military equipment?

Better question, do you really think that Pakistan wouldn't rather buy European or US equipment right now, instead of Chinese, if Pakistan could afford too, and didn't have to worry about sanctions?

Pakistan does what is in Pakistan's interest, likewise, China does what is in China's interest. Right now, their interests are similar, if not the same.

 

[Sedqal]

1. The Army boot the parties out when it wants; the parties do not drag the Army anywhere.

2. A few hearings is change? That is only to give the impression that the courts are powerful, which they are not. They know their limits are set elsewhere.

3. Is there actually a verdict in any meaningful case, including the missing person's case? What about the CJ's own son?

4. The OBL report condemnation is only a short flash in the pan. The mouthpieces being bought and sold means that money will continue to corrupt any media coverage.

5. The Army cannot ignore public opinion? Hahaha. They will do whatever they want whenever they want. Right now they don't want to deal with the mess up front, but only behind the scenes. What they are doing in Afghanistan is going to affect all of us and they are doing what they damn well please.

Lastly, NS is playing by a set rulebook handed to him.

For the love of God, you make Army sound like its some eternal deity which can never be reined in. What would convince you that Army is slowly losing its control over Pakistan? Please list some points you think are inductive of progress.

 

[Argus Panoptes]

For the love of God, you make Army sound like its some eternal deity which can never be reined in. What would convince you that Army is slowly losing its control over Pakistan? Please list some points you think are inductive of progress.

The Army's hold on real power in Pakistan continues to be inviolable, Sir. Anybody who assumes to the contrary is doing so at their own risk.

 

[Sedqal]

It seems that you either didn't read my comment properly or are choosing to ignore most of what I said. if you seriously think that I'm proving your argument of mercenary ethics right, the you're sadly mistaken.

Pakistan's army is not a mercenary army, because in order to be a mercenary force (in this case) it would suggest that Pakistan is profiting from the war, which it is obviously not. Both the military and the economy have lost more from this war than they've gained and don't try to suggest otherwise, because you know this is true.

Being forced to fight and profiting from a war are two different things. Pakistan's army is being forced to fight, as it would have had to deal with international isolation if it didn't. Why is that so hard for you to understand?

You seem to be of the belief that if you repeat something enough times, it'll become true. This claim of yours is nothing more than an invalid argument that people seem to use to criticise the PA. If you want to criticise the PA then use valid arguments next time, preferably with examples.

I'm also not suggesting that Pakistani and Chinese people can't be friends, but I question whether the governments (in private) really care about so called "friendship"? History has proven that no two nations are the best of friends, only allies at best. That is what Pakistan and China's relationship is, one of mutual understanding and benefit (i.e ally), that's hardly indicative of friendship.

Can you honestly say with complete confidence that if Pakistan had absolutely nothing to offer to China, that China would really care about Pakistan or it's well being? Pakistan does what is in Pakistan's interest, likewise, China does what is in China's interest. Right now, their interests are similar, if not the same.

There is the point that Army benefits from the anarchy as it allows army to remain central to decision making. One reason for Kargil might be that Army feared it will become irrelevant in larger scheme of things after Nuclear blasts and peace with India (Vajpai visit) - just an example.

The Army's hold on real power in Pakistan continues to be inviolable, Sir. Anybody who assumes to the contrary is doing so at their own risk.

You have already given up

 

[That Guy]

There is the point that Army benefits from the anarchy as it allows army to remain central to decision making. One reason for Kargil might be that Army feared it will become irrelevant in larger scheme of things after Nuclear blasts and peace with India (Vajpai visit) - just an example.

This is mere speculation, but may have some truth in it. I do ask though, why would the army do such a thing when the war has pretty much ruined it's imagine and (let's be honest) nearly bankrupted it?

 

[Sedqal]

This is mere speculation, but may have some truth in it. I do ask though, why would the army do such a thing when the war has pretty much ruined it's imagine and (let's be honest) nearly bankrupted it?

- I have searched a lot and failed to find one sane reason for Kargil, which raises the question WHY? So its not mere speculation. Kargil achieved universal condemnation, ruined relationship with India, ruined the chance for any solution of Kashmir, shattered the public confidence in nukes (at that time a common man thought wars are a thing of past - we are invincible) and became the backbone of military takeover.

- One reason for these shenanigans might be that PA needs to be in command to safeguard its business empire (Fauji fertilizers to cornflakes to bakery) - eerily similar to Egypt.

 

[That Guy]

- I have searched a lot and failed to find one sane reason for Kargil, which raises the question WHY? So its not mere speculation. Kargil achieved universal condemnation, ruined relationship with India, ruined the chance for any solution of Kashmir, shattered the public confidence in nukes (at that time a common man thought wars are a thing of past - we are invincible) and became the backbone of military takeover.

- One reason for these shenanigans might be that PA needs to be in command to safeguard its business empire (Fauji fertilizers to cornflakes to bakery) - eerily similar to Egypt.

Every military in the world wants to dictate policies, but today's PA is not your and my mother's PA. The current situation is quite the opposite of what is happening in Egypt, but the results of Kargil do have some similarities, that I'll grant you that much. What has happened in Egypt today, will not occur in Pakistan. It had in the past, but people have smartened up, and I suspect the people of Egypt will do the same...eventually.

The PA is in no real position to dictate much, especially since Pakistan's political and judicial institutions are becoming stronger and fiercely independent. The military has no real choice but to either become the face of the public's animosity or submit to a civilian government. Keyani recognized this, and I suspect the next COAS will take things one step further and completely submit.

The PA can no longer afford to play this foolish game of coup d'etat, they simply don't have the luxury. Unless they wish to break Pakistan, as Pakistan can no longer afford to run under military rule. It is a shame that Myanmar's military recognized this before PA did, even though Pakistan was (and still is) so far ahead of Myanmar.

 

[Cheetah786]

90% of Chinese population resides on east cost. At most, GWADAR is going to service Xinjiang or some adjacent areas. 90% of the oil for China is going to go through Indian Ocean Region. So it is Pakistani imagination that GWADAR is something China will depend on for energy needs.

And no way GWADAR is going to be $100 billion trade equivalent. Pakistan is useful for China not because Pakistan has a port, but because Pakistan can keep India busy while China can service its other strategic objectives.

I m going off topic

Bilateral trade between India and China has gone up from $2.09 billion in 2001-02 to a high of $75.59 billion in 2011-12; which tapered to $67.83 billion during 2012-13.
The trade deficit has increased from $1.08 billion in 2001-02 to $40.77 billion in 2012-13. The MoUs were signed as part of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India.

India, China take steps to reduce trade gap - The Hindu

For Crying Out Loud stop making numbers.

 

[Jade]

I m going off topic

Bilateral trade between India and China has gone up from $2.09 billion in 2001-02 to a high of $75.59 billion in 2011-12; which tapered to $67.83 billion during 2012-13.
The trade deficit has increased from $1.08 billion in 2001-02 to $40.77 billion in 2012-13. The MoUs were signed as part of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to India.

India, China take steps to reduce trade gap - The Hindu

For Crying Out Loud stop making numbers.

Common on..I was using the number as a indication of commerce that happens between India and China. Given that 50% of world population between these two countries and given that both are growing, the future trade number could be much much higher. No wonder, Chinese PM made India has his first oversea visit

And noway GWADAR is going to compensate for such numbers.