Will Waziristan break Pakistan's back?

[Bull]

I have a different theory. I believe that many of the troops dont really want to fight the talibaan. It simply means killing and being killed by ones own family members and many of the FC are from the same or nearby areas. It is lot easier to surrender and be ransomed.

I could be totally wrong but only other possibility is that they were cowards. How else a compay surrender to a few talibaan when they have the option to call upon helo gunships for support. Waziristan has therefore already broken Pakistan's back.

Call me a prophet of doom but I can't think of any other plausible reason why a fully armed company will surrender without a fight??

Quite a possibilty. But federal forces not willing to fight even when under military ruler is something thats worrisome.

Wairistan woulldnt break Pakistan's back, but might break away with these FC constulbary deciding to switch sides.

 

[tahirkhely]

Hi,

Waziristan may not break pakistan's back, but if pakistan wants to and Musharraf is forced into a corner, waziristan will be neautralized. They have to be a part of mainstream pakistan.

Sep 5,2007: two jawans of Ghulam khan check post bordering afghanistan are missing. Authorities are saying they were tired of their duties and escaped their jobs not kidnapped. In another incident one jawan of shawal rifles committed suicide after his resignation was rejected. Reported by AAJ tv
this reminds me of something that used to happen with the indian soldiers.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Sep 5,2007: two jawans of Ghulam khan check post bordering afghanistan are missing. Authorities are saying they were tired of their duties and escaped their jobs not kidnapped. In another incident one jawan of shawal rifles committed suicide after his resignation was rejected. Reported by AAJ tv
this reminds me of something that used to happen with the indian soldiers.

Its all fun and games until the fighting starts. This would occur in any army, to varying degrees. There are numerous factors involved - harsh conditions, almost non stop attacks of one kind or another, the potential lack of motivation resulting from having to fight ones own "tribes" within ones own land; the lack of support from society at large (Muslim or Pakistani or "XYZ tribe" first conflicts coming into play). But even within the U.S army, with its provisions of ice cold pop, video networking with families and movies and video games on deployment, there have been suicides, desertions, increasing depression. Being a soldier, especially when fighting such vague and amorphous threats such as "terror", is a hard business. I don't think most of us realize the pressures these guys go through for paltry sums of money. It would be different, from a motivational POV, if this were against India, because then the "existential threat" aspect comes into play, but our society, despite being subjected to bombings and thugs who use violence to impose their version of Islam, does not yet see these people as an existential threat to the state.

That really has to be changed, both in society through cooperation with the media (that needs to grow up, and is behind a lot of the negative Public opinion, especially since the whole LM situation), as well as training the troops from the get go about the threat to the country from such elements (or is this already included in their training?)

The government has to be faulted to some extent. Its their job to do regardless of what society thinks or the opinion polls suggest. They sent in forces initially without any sort of a "plan". They were not prepared for the IED's, suicide bombers etc. There has really been no "operation". The SF's have pretty much just sat back and retaliated when attacked. That policy itself cannot be very kind to the mental health and morale of the troops - just waiting to be hit. This may perhaps be a holding tactic to appease the Americans and take off that pressure till the elections are over, and some form of political stability allows Musharraf to become more aggressive.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Quite a possibilty. But federal forces not willing to fight even when under military ruler is something thats worrisome.

Wairistan woulldnt break Pakistan's back, but might break away with these FC constulbary deciding to switch sides.

Naah, who would they get their free electricity from? Plus they (the criminal and Taliban element) would lose the biggest market for their drugs, weapons and smuggling.

 

[Bull]

Naah, who would they get their free electricity from? Plus they (the criminal and Taliban element) would lose the biggest market for their drugs, weapons and smuggling.

Both points dont count.

If OBl can survive on those mountains with all his ailment, who needs electricity to wage a war. The pt you miss out is that waziristan would still look at Pakistan as a Islamic land occupied by anti - Muslim forces and would continue to wage their battle.

Lose biggest market for drugs??? Thats a joke, If Afghan drugs can reach customers in India, i dont think Pakistan would be an issue.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Both points dont count.

If OBl can survive on those mountains with all his ailment, who needs electricity to wage a war. The pt you miss out is that waziristan would still look at Pakistan as a Islamic land occupied by anti - Muslim forces and would continue to wage their battle.

Lose biggest market for drugs??? Thats a joke, If Afghan drugs can reach customers in India, i dont think Pakistan would be an issue.

OBL and the Taliban are not the "people" of Waziristan. Even now, holding 100 plus troops hostage, Baitullah Mehsud's demands include the provision of electricity and telephone facilities to far flung villages. If it ever separates, the people will lose all of that, and the militants are cognizant of that reality as we can see from their "demands". They may personally not care about electricty and telephones, but they realize that they have to offer some sort of "development" in order to retain the support of the majority of peaceful Tribals.

With respect to their view about Pakistan, they are not really going to have time for that as NATO pounds the crap out of them once they decide to "secede". If Pakistan plays its cards right, the Taliban/militants will get completely isolated by the local populace, because at least they were not getting bombed to smithereens while part of Pakistan.

The succession thing does not seem likely to happen though. Tensions are the highest they have ever been, and the Taliban and/or militant commanders have still not made any such demands that I know of. They may want to retain their status as an "autonomous territory", but that seems to be pretty much it.

 

[blain2]

But wasnt it reproted earlier that a PA division or para troops had laid down arms in this restive area?

Lets not get carried away here. Troops have been held hostage or taken prisoner but nothing like a Div (do you even know how many make up a div?? ) With family members in the army who have operated in that area, I can tell you that the area is as such where mountains and valleys eat men. You can throw 3 or 4 battalions into the area and all of them can be concealed. For 2 companies (300 men) worth of men to be taken hostage in that area is not that difficult as long as the hostage takers have the vantage points and are in good numbers (both seem to be the case here).

The issue is the circumstances. It is being reported that the convoy was simply passing by and got held up at a collapsed bridge and the tribals started gathering around it upon being suspicious that the troops were coming in for an operation. So the way the militants closed in is also something to consider. It was not purely someone yelling at the convoy from on top of a mountain to throw down their weapons.

Its a tough situation any which way you look at it. I just hope the troops are recovered without a loss of life.

 

[Bull]

OBL and the Taliban are not the "people" of Waziristan. Even now, holding 100 plus troops hostage, Baitullah Mehsud's demands include the provision of electricity and telephone facilities to far flung villages. If it ever separates, the people will lose all of that, and the militants are cognizant of that reality as we can see from their "demands". They may personally not care about electricty and telephones, but they realize that they have to offer some sort of "development" in order to retain the support of the majority of peaceful Tribals.

With respect to their view about Pakistan, they are not really going to have time for that as NATO pounds the crap out of them once they decide to "secede". If Pakistan plays its cards right, the Taliban/militants will get completely isolated by the local populace, because at least they were not getting bombed to smithereens while part of Pakistan.

The succession thing does not seem likely to happen though. Tensions are the highest they have ever been, and the Taliban and/or militant commanders have still not made any such demands that I know of. They may want to retain their status as an "autonomous territory", but that seems to be pretty much it.

You are thinking about thwta will happen to them after they secede, instead think what will happen to pakistan after they secede.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You are thinking about thwta will happen to them after they secede, instead think what will happen to pakistan after they secede.

What do you think will happen to Pakistan?

And, for comparison sake, what do you think will happen if the eastern states secede from India?

 

[blain2]

Seceding of tribal areas from Pakistan is, by the will of the Almighty, an impossibility.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Bull,

One cannot understand the reason why they did not resist.

There could be so many angles to the issue and I am sure there would be good reasons too!

 

[josh21x]

Just to keep the ball rolling, what if they defected

 

[blain2]

Just to keep the ball rolling, what if they defected

Good one! Lets not speculate when we do not know. All indications are that they are being held against their wills.

 

[josh21x]

Good one! Lets not speculate when we do not know. All indications are that they are being held against their wills.

300 strong armed and trained men, and no bullets fired?
Not even a fire fight

 

[blain2]

300 strong armed and trained men, and no bullets fired?
Not even a fire fight

Can you tell me the circumstances under which no bullets were fired by 300 armed men?