Will Iran enter to the war against Israel?

[HGV]

Trump went further by assassinating Soleimani - thus, daring the Iranians to openly draw American blood. Expectedly, the Mullahs backed down.

Can you remind us what Trump threatened on Twitter before Iran's response? And what did Trump do in the end after 10-15 Iranian ballistic missiles rained down on terrorist US soldiers in Iraq, injuring 110 of them (several dozen seriously and permanently injured, with one quickly killing himself to end his suffering)?

The US wants a civil war in Iraq that destroys Iran's militias and fosters the growth of terrorists that threaten Tehran. The first attempt with ISIS faile, but I'm sure the US is preparing a second one.

Iraq is 65% Shia and the PMU/PMF are huge, battle tested and extremely well armed. These "militias" cannot be destroyed so easily.

It appears the Americans want to first weaken Iran's proxies severely, especially Hezbollah, before sparking a civil war in Iraq. It's not a coincidence that both Lebanon and Iraq are close to descending into full chaos.

Of course, the USA wants to incite civil war across the region to pursue its own objectives.

The 2 carrier group would make mince meat of these rebel and their missile launcher.

Sometimes I really have to laugh at the quality of 'military analysis' offered by supposed experts here

I think the Americans are still looking for Saddam's SCUD TELs in Iraq

 

[jhungary]

Ansarallah can easily target massive oil tankers (huge and slow civilian ships that use transponders to report their location in real time)

Entrance to Bab el Mandeb strait is c. 175km from Ansarallah controlled territory south of Hodeidah and only c. 75km from Ansarallah controlled territory south-west of Taiz

That's if those ships manage to get through the Red Sea adjacent to Ansarallah strongholds in central/North Yemen (the Red Sea is 150-200km at its widest point adjacent to coastal west Yemen)

Ansarallah possess huge quantities of anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles with that range (and some far beyond). Such a small range also makes such shipping vulnerable to drone boats and mines (although these are more indiscriminate and ought to be avoided as only Saudi ships attempting to circumvent the Persian Gulf would be valid targets in this scenario)

Saudi Navy would have to send a large military escort with/to every oil tanker while they travel down the Red Sea and through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, it's not very feasible


Correct analysis.

Again, you and the other guy have a very simple interpretation of "missile" when it come to them hitting target.

1.) MIssile is called MISSile for a reason, even with advance tracking like Tomahawk missile does, you are talking about 20-30% effective on moving target, it's increase dramatically when the target is stationary. But thinking 1 missile - 1 Boat is more or less delusional.

2.) It's not easy to launch missile, sure, without a state of war declared, then yes, you probably will let them loose willy-0nilly, but if Houthi started to target Saudi shipping, I am pretty sure Saudi will enter a state of war with Houthi or even Yemen, then you are talking about Air Superiority and CAP, any missile launcher will stick out like a sore thumb in any modern ISTAR asset, from Satellite to E-Dub platform, I mean, you are talking about Houthi rebel, not China, if Saudi have complete air control over the area, they won't be able to lob any missile......

And finally 3.) Why do you think the Saudi needed to go south........They can go north and exit the area thru the MEd or even uses Russian ground pipeline or thru Turkey to ship those oil to Asian customer, they really don't need to go south thru bab el mandeb strait........

 

[Darius77]

There are no "military experts" here, just some bored kids blowing hot air up their arse. This one, in particular is a joke. Wants a lot of attention though.

 

[RayKalm]

Would be to spend the energy and resources on countering them with soft power like lobbying and narrative control. The arabs are not short of money!

The Iranians arming of the Houthis, Hezbollah and other actors, has been putting up a massive front for complete western and Israeli control as it is.

 

[jhungary]

Sometimes I really have to laugh at the quality of 'military analysis' offered by supposed experts here

I think the Americans are still looking for Saddam's SCUD TELs in Iraq

Same here, I laugh at your post for a complete LACK of military insight.

I mean if you think what you said can happen, that what we call in the Military as "King of Wishful Thinking" because in your "Scenario" only you are the active one while the other party will never take any initiative to try to wrestle control over that. I mean sure, you will win EVERYTIME when things always goes your plan, but as they all say, no plan survive their first contact.

Why not put it as a discussion then, why not just "WISH" it would happen??

You people are really ignorant on the issue and then pretend you know better, and that's REALLY R FUNNY

 

[_killuminati_]

First, you are talking about a missile struck a port, you don't know

A.) How many missile was fired
B.) What is the intercepting point
C.) How are the missile travelled.

So?

On the other hand, you are talking about a complete interdiction of naval traffic at sea. Do you even see the difference here? Just because you can send some missile and hit some static target, DOES NOT MEAN you can totally control the sea, now, you may be able to kill a few ship, but then it wouldn;t be 100%, hell, I would consider a success if missile can intercept 20% of Saudi Shipping.

Who said complete control? Don't put words into my mouth.

No commercial enterprise is stupid enough to move through a stretch of water while knowing it can be blown apart at any moment. Even if it's just 5% of ships getting wrecked.

And yet you refused to answer me the question why you think Saudi would head south in the first place?

I don't know this question nor where you asked it.

On the other hand, you also failed to notice doing said thing is going to draw Saudi into a war in Yeman, now, considering this, would it be easier for Saudi to go to war with Iran when they close the Hormuz?

I don't know what cave you live in but Saudis have been at war with Yemen for the past almost 9 years.

Or would it be easier for them to go to war with Houthi rebel in Yemen. And that's before any potential US reaction in the question, I mean it's one thing US may or may not have a go at Iran, the same limit does not applies when you are talking about Houthi rebel. The 2 carrier group would make mince meat of these rebel and their missile launcher.

US is already involved in Yemen and have failed to stop Houthi attacks.

You know wrong. US Destroyer SM-2 projectile can intercept NLOS missile...

What I spoke of has nothing to do with NLOS. All American ADS were built on intercepting straight-line trajectories employing single warheads, without decoys. It is physically impossible for a battery to estimate the trajectory of an object that doesn't travel in straight lines.

And you obviously did not factor in when Saudi ONLY income was threaten by said group.

???

It's one thing for Saudi to play around with Houthi in Yemen, do you really think Houthi will face the same Saudi of they are threaten their only export??

Yes.

 

[Darius77]

The Iranians, arming the Houthis, Hezbollah and other actors, has been putting up a massive front for complete western and Israeli control as it is.

The Zionist child killing scum are weaker than a spider web, the bastards strut on total US and western support. If the Axis of Resistance gets serious in a region wide asymmetrical war, the Zionists will collapse and that is why they want the US morons to fight Iran. This is the ideal time to use the Confucian adage of death of thousand cuts upon the Zionist LGBT Tik Tok military of baby killers.

 

[Danjuma Musa]

Can you remind us what Trump threatened on Twitter before Iran's response? And what did Trump do in the end after 10-15 Iranian ballistic missiles rained down on terrorist US soldiers in Iraq, injuring 110 of them (several dozen seriously and permanently injured, with one quickly killing himself to end his suffering)?

Trump threatened Iran not to kill Americans in retaliation to Soleimani's murder, and the Mullahs obeyed. LOL.
I like the way you guys keep admitting that the Americans were only injured. It makes me laugh. Maybe you'll injure 1000 Americans after they assassinate Khomeini himself. What a brave way to confront your enemy.

Iraq is 65% Shia and the PMU/PMF are huge, battle tested and extremely well armed. These "militias" cannot be destroyed so easily.

A civil war can still happen even if Iraq is 100% Shia. Don't forget your feud with Maqtada Al-Sadr.

Sometimes I really have to laugh at the quality of 'military analysis' offered by supposed experts here

I think the Americans are still looking for Saddam's SCUD TELs in Iraq

Yeah, some military analyses are laughable, but what you can do is offer the correct view and prepared to back up your points with facts and logic.

With all those Nigerian princes in full supply I feel you can buy the Jews outright no?

Meaningless question. I don't understand. Rephrase if you want a better reply from me.

 

[jhungary]

So?

So/ it mean you don't have a complete picture.....

Who said complete control? Don't put words into my mouth.

No commercial enterprise is stupid enough to move through a stretch of water while knowing it can be blown apart at any moment. Even if it's just 5% of ships getting wrecked.

If you can't have complete control and Saudi can use their port maybe suffer from 20% casualty, then how it work? 5% won't mean shit.

I don't know this question nor where you asked it.

I asked it the first time you reply to my post.

I don't know what cave you live in but Saudis have been at war with Yemen for the past almost 9 years.

So, are they targeting Saudi Oil shipment? Again, at war is one thing, you started to go after my ONLY export, and you still thing I will be the same and let you do it?

US is already involved in Yemen and have failed to stop Houthi attacks.

lol, saids who?

What I spoke of has nothing to do with NLOS. All American ADS were built on intercepting straight-line trajectories employing single warheads, without decoys. It is physically impossible for a battery to estimate the trajectory of an object that doesn't travel in straight lines.

You either need to go learn something about AEGIS system, or you need to know how to intercept ballistic missile, I can't tell you anything that will make sense to you if you don't know, and I tried.

And it's physically possible to intercept anything that does not travel in a straight line. All missiles have a parabola trajectory, if you can only intercept stuff in a straight line, then you won't be able to intercept ANYTHING at all. And you can't shoot down any aircraft, because their movement is NOT JUST LATERAL.......

???

Sure, it mean they will be different IF AND WHEN YOU THREATEN THEIR ONLY EXPORT.

Yes.

Well, then you are dumber than I thought.

 

[Danjuma Musa]

OK, we will shut up and stop helping the Palestinians. Of course you can defeat Israel from Nigeria.

How are you helping the Palestinians. You are NOT helping the Palestinians but killing them by using them in your proxy war against Israel. Hamas wouldn't have the encouragement to pull that foolish move against Israel if not for the rockets and equipment you supply them. The devils in Tehran know that Hamas stands no chance against Israel with those small weapons. They just wanted some Israelis dead as a kind of revenge for the assassinations even if it comes at the cost of thousands of Palesgtinians dead and millions displaced. I mean, don't pretend not to understand what I'm saying. Iran could simply order Hezbollah to enter the fight if it REALLY wanted to help Palestine. You have NO excuse here because you are the ONLY country with an army on Israel's border that can fight the Israelis if you ordered it. But that's not your goal. Your goal is not to fight the Israelis. Your goal is to secure the Iranian regime by telling the Israelis: "look, if you attempt to militarily topple our regime, we'll unleash Hezbollah against you". That is it. You and I can argue this further if you want, but I'll defnitely prove you wrong in the end.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

"All nukes are waste.. No one can dare to use it." LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

They are not made to be used necessarily, but as a deterrence to preserve your independence against those who own nuclear stock pile, and want to impose their will on you. It's called MAD.
Moreover, as a hindu, if you really believe in such gabeli goop, that nukes are useless, why on hell's creation India is making them, curry breath?

Did you read what I said?

I said specially USA.. Example one USN ohio SSBM submarine is enough for Pakistan.

So if USA stands strongly, no one will going to use nuke against Israel.. All nukes are waste

Even Israel also has nukes..that can hits Pakistan and more

 

[HGV]

Again, you and the other guy have a very simple interpretation of "missile" when it come to them hitting target.

1.) MIssile is called MISSile for a reason, even with advance tracking like Tomahawk missile does, you are talking about 20-30% effective on moving target, it's increase dramatically when the target is stationary. But thinking 1 missile - 1 Boat is more or less delusional.

Where did I claim Ansarallah anti-ship missiles would have a 100% success rate?

Ballistic and cruise missiles can have a 10-30% failure rate, and hitting a moving target is significantly harder than hitting a static target. But these massive oil tankers are huge targets, constantly report their location via transponders and move very slowly.

2.) It's not easy to launch missile

They are launching missiles into occupied Palestine 1600km away every day and fired >500 ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia in the last 5-7 years

sure, without a state of war declared, then yes, you probably will let them loose willy-0nilly, but if Houthi started to target Saudi shipping, I am pretty sure Saudi will enter a state of war with Houthi or even Yemen, then you are talking about Air Superiority and CAP, any missile launcher will stick out like a sore thumb in any modern ISTAR asset, from Satellite to E-Dub platform, I mean, you are talking about Houthi rebel, not China, if Saudi have complete air control over the area, they won't be able to lob any missile......

Hilariously amateurish analysis. The Zio-Nazi regime cannot stop Hamas fighters firing rockets from their tiny flat enclave after dropping 10,000+ US bombs on them but you think Saudis can establish "air control" over all of Yemen and stop Ansarallah from firing any missiles, LOL.

And finally 3.) Why do you think the Saudi needed to go south........They can go north and exit the area thru the MEd or even uses Russian ground pipeline or thru Turkey to ship those oil to Asian customer, they really don't need to go south thru bab el mandeb strait........

"The main destination of Crude Petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia are: China ($38.3B), Japan ($21.9B), South Korea ($18.5B), India ($15.8B)"

But you want Saudis to not only pump oil from the Persian Gulf across 1200km+ of desert to their west coast, but then transport that oil to China, Japan and South Korea by going north, through the Suez Canal? LOL dude please stop, you're embarrassing yourself.

Trump threatened Iran not to kill Americans in retaliation to Soleimani's murder

You are a liar. This is what Trump said:

"if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets," no reference to killing Americans. Will you admit your lie?

Trump continued: "we have targeted 52 Iranian sites[...] at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD." Can you tell us what Trump's response to Iran targeting (and injuring >100) Americans was in reality?

 

[_killuminati_]

So/ it mean you don't have a complete picture.....

What you wrote doesn't negate my statement in any way, so it is irrelevant and moot.

If you can't have complete control and Saudi can use their port maybe suffer from 20% casualty, then how it work? 5% won't mean shit.

Rebuilding capacity isn't 5%. 5% will keep accumulating until nothing is left of the Saudi fleet. And it's not just about the Saudis. All international freight will be targeted and will avoid the shipment through the Suez.

I asked it the first time you reply to my post.

??

So, are they targeting Saudi Oil shipment? Again, at war is one thing, you started to go after my ONLY export, and you still thing I will be the same and let you do it?

What same? Saudis already tried full force into Yemen and were sent home packing.

lol, saids who?

Here's an entire page for you,

United States support for Saudi Arabian–led operations in Yemen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You either need to go learn something about AEGIS system, or you need to know how to intercept ballistic missile, I can't tell you anything that will make sense to you if you don't know, and I tried.

What a lame copout of a losing argument: "I cant prove you wrong, go read, I tried".

And it's physically possible to intercept anything that does not travel in a straight line.

It's not physically possible for American ADS to intercept non-straightline missile trajectories.

All missiles have a parabola trajectory,

No they don't. Cruise missiles and loitering munitions do not have parabola trajectories, nor maneuverable ballistic missiles.

if you can only intercept stuff in a straight line, then you won't be able to intercept ANYTHING at all. And you can't shoot down any aircraft, because their movement is NOT JUST LATERAL.......

Aircraft have high RCS, radio, and IR emissions that can be tracked easily. Missiles don't. You have very little military insight.

I see how you dodged the concept of topography.

Sure, it mean they will be different IF AND WHEN YOU THREATEN THEIR ONLY EXPORT.

Now you're banking on hypothesis instead of reality.

Well, then you are dumber than I thought.

You are out of argument.

 

[jhungary]

Where did I claim Ansarallah anti-ship missiles would have a 100% success rate?

And where did I claim you did?

I am just saying this is a point. You can't hit it 100% which mean it is not effective. Do you understand the term "Effective"?

Ballistic and cruise missiles can have a 10-30% failure rate, and hitting a moving target is significantly harder than hitting a static target. But these massive oil tankers are huge targets, constantly transpond their location and move very slowly.

lol, missile have 10%-30% failure rate? And you call me delusional......

They are launching missiles into occupied Palestine 1600km away every day and fired >500 ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia in the last 5-7 years

So? again, you are thinking yes, only I get to attack, while the other can't strike back.

I don't know where you learn your "Battlefield Experience" from, this isn't how this work dude.

Hilariously amateurish analysis. The Zio-Nazi regime cannot stop Hamas fighters firing rockets from their tiny enclave but you think Saudis can establish "air control" over all of Yemen and stop Ansarallah from firing any missiles, LOL.

Sure, yet Iran still hadn't done shit and Israel has been murdering Palestinian left and right.

And this is just bad taste, so you laugh on the floor rolling for all the Palestinian that's being killed? I don't care as much but I wouldn't use ROFL emoji on people that was killed in this conflict.

"The main destination of Crude Petroleum exports from Saudi Arabia are: China ($38.3B), Japan ($21.9B), South Korea ($18.5B), India ($15.8B)"

But you want Saudis to not only pump oil from the Persian Gulf across 1200km+ of desert to their west coast, but then transport that oil to China, Japan and South Korea by going north, through the Suez Canal? LOL dude please stop, you're embarrassing yourself.

Dude, you are the one that embarrassing yourselve,

First, I did not say anything, I said why not this, unless you are telling me this is NOT PHYSICALLY CAPABLE, then there are possibility that works. The issue here is, as I pointed out on the original post, less than 20% of world oil go thru Hormuz, that mean you have to be extremely foolish to think even if Saudi Output is zero, you can jack up the price to $300 like the original post claim.

And that's on top of Saudi output will not be zero, because you're thinking of Iran doing stuff that outside of their capability to begin with. Just as everything even remotely military related in this matter, your answer is, well, I was gonna say wishful thinking, but that seems like an insult to go-west

 

[jhungary]

What you wrote doesn't negate my statement in any way, so it is irrelevant and moot.

Explain to me how it did not negate your statement.

You don't know how it was hit, I mean if Houthiu launches 20 missile and 1 hit, was that a "Acceptable" efficiency to you? if so, then I will say you won't be able to even cause 5% of damage

Rebuilding capacity isn't 5%. 5% will keep accumulating until nothing is left of the Saudi fleet. And it's not just about the Saudis. All international freight will be targeted and will avoid the shipment through the Suez.

Do you even read what you said? If ALL INTERNATIONAL FRIEGHT is targeted, then you piss off THE ENTIRE WORLD, I can see a UN resolution coming, and that mean Houthi won't be just facing Saudi alone...

??

What same? Saudis already tried full force into Yemen and were sent home packing.

loll, full force? How many Saudi soldier were eve in Yemen? How many sorties was flew by RSAF? How many ship and how many shell were used in that 5 to 7 years war?

Here's an entire page for you,

United States support for Saudi Arabian–led operations in Yemen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Sure, whatever you say

What a lame copout of a losing argument: "I cant prove you wrong, go read, I tried".

Again, you have zero understanding on how Missile trajectory works, if missile can only target straight line tragetory, then how you can use a missile to shoot down an aircraft that is not flying at a straight line?

It's not physically possible for American ADS to intercept non-straightline missile trajectories.

Again, explain to me how it is physically impossible.

And then explain to me how this

U.S. Navy warship intercepted 3 missiles and several drones near Yemen

The Pentagon said the USS Carney, a Navy destroyer, took down three missiles Thursday that were fired from Yemen and were heading north.

www.cbsnews.com

could happen?

No they don't. Cruise missiles and loitering munitions do not have parabola trajectories, nor maneuverable ballistic missiles.

Are you for real??

Flight Profile of a Cruise Missile

Aircraft have high RCS, radio, and IR emissions that can be tracked easily. Missiles don't. You have very little military insight.

I see how you dodged the concept of topography.

lol, RCS have nothing to do with whether or not missile profile can be intercepted.....

YoU ARE SAYING IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO INTERCEPT NON_LINEAR FLIGHT PATH.........

Now you're banking on hypothesis instead of reality.

Am I? Or are you??

You are out of argument.

Well, how exactly to argue with an idiot?