Why India Will Displace China as Global Growth Engine

[faithfulguy]

Apparently India will surpass China in the next "17-20" years, correct?

If China's GDP will easily be over $20 trillion by 2020, how will India surpass China in the 2030's?

Are you expecting a more than 1000% increase in India's GDP in 20 years? India will go from a roughly $2 trillion GDP to a $20 trillion one by 2035?

Oh, and China will not freeze in year 2020, they will have 15 years of growth until your magic scenario.

So in reality you are expecting something like a 2000% increase in GDP in the next 20 years, or a 20x increase in the next two decades.

Yea, and maybe Mongolia will become a superpower too! Ya never knowww!!

The likelihood of India surpass China is as likely for Zimbabwe to surpass China in the next 17 years. It would require China to crash ala Gordon Chang style collapse. India, on the other hand, would benefit greatly if it revert back to the political establishment before British invasion. The average people have better livelihood back then.

 

[Okemos]

Xinjiang is like 45% Han. Doubt it.

Northern Xinjiang is probably like 80% while its capitol Urumuqi or Dihua is more than 90%. It's the barren southern xingjiang that is populated by minorities that still live as nomads.

 

[faithfulguy]

India could overtake China in terms of economy, but not in this century.

And Vietnam has as good of chance as India of overtaking China in the future centuries.

 

[gslv mk3]

Pakistan is no different from India. I don't know where you pull your figures from. Where is the evidence your people's poverty figures are overblown? You are just a typical brownskin in denial. Korea is not an ally with Pakistan. Rag on them all you like. I could care less.Face it though, in comparison to any East Asian country (with the exception of N. Korea) you don't look any different than Africans.

Same as India??Should I compare literacy rate,HDI and Percapita income of Pakistan with India??
You doesnt even have proper infrastructure or power generation facilities..
As for poverty,we are spending $70 billion on Poverty elimination and on infrastructure,we are going to spend $ trillion for infrastructure in next five years

Pakistan is same as India Some one must compare manufacturing Industries,Science and technology...hahaha

If China's GDP will easily be over $20 trillion by 2020, how will India surpass China in the 2030's?
Are you expecting a more than 1000% increase in India's GDP in 20 years? India will go from a roughly $2 trillion GDP to a $20 trillion one by 2035?
Oh, and China will not freeze in year 2020, they will have 15 years of growth until your magic scenario.

So in reality you are expecting something like a 2000% increase in GDP in the next 20 years, or a 20x increase in the next two decades.

Yea, and maybe Mongolia will become a superpower too! Ya never knowww!!

 

[East Asia United]

Same as India??Should I compare literacy rate,HDI and Percapita income of Pakistan with India??
You doesnt even have proper infrastructure or power generation facilities..
As for poverty,we are spending $70 billion on Poverty elimination and on infrastructure,we are going to spend $ trillion for infrastructure in next five years

Pakistan is same as India Some one must compare manufacturing Industries,Science and technology...hahaha

My my, illiterate brownskins take everything word-for-word.

Listen, Pakistan is a third-world dump okay? I really don't give two worths a damn about them.

Try and stay on topic instead of obsessing over your illiterate cousins.

The facts, as I stated before, are that India is doing worse in virtually every last metric than China. 97% of you turd-worlders are living below $5 a day, and this is not even in real terms (it's adjusted for purchasing power).

Face it, you are outclassed by this intellectually superior Asian.

 

[djsjs]

India could overtake China in terms of economy, but not in this century.

do you know what you are doing?you are hurting hearts of many people.
why don't you keep confidence with them?do you want to be their enemy?

 

[walle]

yindoo ahsan should stop posting these type of articles to avoid further humiliations in the future.

 

[Vinod2070]

The likelihood of India surpass China is as likely for Zimbabwe to surpass China in the next 17 years. It would require China to crash ala Gordon Chang style collapse. India, on the other hand, would benefit greatly if it revert back to the political establishment before British invasion. The average people have better livelihood back then.

A typical zombi like petty post.

It is a hallmark of the sample that we get here. The worst of the lot I guess.

We know that China has taken more than 600 million people out of crushing poverty in the last 2 decades and we feel good about it. It is something that we need to emulate.

Then you see these petty forced single kids who suddenly start acting superior and you realize what little crap you are dealing with. Just a hint of prosperity has gone to their heads while the reality is that a billion plus of their people are just a hint above sustenance level lifestyle.

Face it though, in comparison to any East Asian country (with the exception of N. Korea) you don't look any different than Africans.

Even though you are hardly an "East Asian" from your nick (which you forgot to change), East Asia (including Korea and your Godfather China) was far below South Asia just a few decades back. It can change again in future.

Your assumptions of "racial superiority" is pathetic and funny.

And idiotic in the extreme.

And Vietnam has as good of chance as India of overtaking China in the future centuries.

And ignorant people like you are the experts?

 

[faithfulguy]

A typical zombi like petty post.

It is a hallmark of the sample that we get here. The worst of the lot I guess.

We know that China has taken more than 600 million people out of crushing poverty in the last 2 decades and we feel good about it. It is something that we need to emulate.

Then you see these petty forced single kids who suddenly start acting superior and you realize what little crap you are dealing with. Just a hint of prosperity has gone to their heads while the reality is that a billion plus of their people are just a hint above sustenance level lifestyle.



Even though you are hardly an "East Asian" from your nick (which you forgot to change), East Asia (including Korea and your Godfather China) was far below South Asia just a few decades back. It can change again in future.

Your assumptions of "racial superiority" is pathetic and funny.

And idiotic in the extreme.



And ignorant people like you are the experts?

When you cannot handle the facts, you resort to personal attacks. Thanks for agree with my statements above.

 

[Vinod2070]

When you cannot handle the facts, you resort to personal attacks. Thanks for agree with my statements above.

Everything I mentioned is a fact.

Stop acting like an "India expert".

It is foolish and annoying.

Why does his flag matters if the facts he posted are correct? If not, please come forward with the correct facts.

I don't really care for flags on an anonymous forum.

Sometimes, you see repeated absurdities like e.g. a "German" always getting into a d*** measuring contest between China and India.

Or a "Korean" with a Muslim name trying to act funny repeatedly.

Then one may sometimes chose to point out the obvious.

 

[Truth Finder]

India could overtake China in terms of economy, but not in this century.

ledburyresearch.com/news/report-india-to-be-world-s-biggest-economy-in-2050

India to become economic superpower by 2030: US intelligence-India News - IBNLive Mobile

Western reports are trusted because they have both experience and expertise.

 

[Truth Finder]

I know right? iPhones and Macbooks don't really exist in the real world. They are just a figment of our imagination.

Two kinds of manufacturings are done in China - 1)by foreign owners and technology but with cheap labors 2) by native Chinese with everything Chinese. People in other countries buy first kind of things. But, the MNCs will always move to cheaper places and China itself now witnessing this painful outsourcing. And, second kind of things are crap, cheap and even poisonous. They have no future. So, with first kind of thing's outsourcing to other countries,which is happening now, Chinese manufacturing is destined for a doom. And, by the way, who is the owner of iPhones and Macbooks (certainly not a chinese!!! ) You only supply cheap labors and nothing more than that.

 

[Truth Finder]

I love how you round up by more than 200 million. Typical misleading Hindu.

First of all, the statistics are 5 years old. Secondly, even these 5-year-old statistics show Chinese poverty at:

Less than $1.25 a day: 13.1% (172 million)

Less than $2 a day: 29.8% (394 million)

Less than $2.5 a day: 39.9% (528 million)

Less than $4 a day: 62% (821 million)

Less than $5 a day: 71.6% (948 million)


Here is India for 2010:

less than $1.25 a day: 32.7% (400 million)

less than $2 a day: 68.7% (841 million)

less than $2.5 a day: 81.1% (992 million)

less than $4 a day: 93.7% (1,148 million)

less than $5 a day: 96.9% (1,179 million)

And just to show you how inaccurate these figures are, China poverty headcount ratio for $1.25 decreased from 13% in 2008 to 11% in 2009.

As for India, here are some interesting statistics:



OUCH!!

Poverty in the People's Republic of China - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Poverty in India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Even our enemies accept that India has at least 250 million middle class people. So, by Chinese logic, they live on $120 to $150 per month!!! Again, fake Chinese data or brilliant Chinese IQ.

In India also no ALL INDIA social census is done from 2005.

 

[Vinod2070]

I know right? iPhones and Macbooks don't really exist in the real world. They are just a figment of our imagination.

Wiping those glass screen with n-Hexane is not really the epitome of manufacturing.

It is using cheap labor in extreme conditions, often waking them up in the middle of night to wipe those glasses because a Steve Jobs thousands of miles away decides that he wants a glass screen and not a plastic one.

And these cheap labors are accommodated twenty to a bunk, given a tea and a biscuit and put to the job.

This is what you are so proud of!

“A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day. “

While this is fine as is making those happy meal toys at rock bottom prices (and quality), don't try to jump around too much.

 

[Truth Finder]

Who is the illiterate one? Do you even understand how nominal GDP growth is assessed?

Let me teach you:

You have the real GDP growth + inflation + currency appreciation rate relative to US dollar

China average growth: Let's say 8%

Inflation rate: Let's say 4% (average of the last 10 years)

Yuan currency appreciation: Let's say 3% (although will probably be higher because of pressure from the US and China transforming into consumption-driven economy over the next two decades)

So what is the total, math genius? 15% growth in Nominal GDP

Compare to the US average. Let's say US somehow starts growing at 4% a year, and they keep inflation to 2% a year. (Probably won't happen but let's see anyway).

Plug that in. What did you get? China will double GDP easily in 5-6 years, and will surpass the US GDP no later than 2020.

Help yourself dummy: Daily chart: Rancho eclipse | The Economist

Typical pedantic show off. Truly, a little learning is a dangerous thing.


India's nominal GDP growth forecast in upcoming years ranges from 13.75% to 16%.(thanks to inflation) And, of China it is about 8.5% to 9% in upcoming years. Now, applying the rule of 72, it will take 4.5 to 5.5 years to double India's economy whereas it will be 8.5 yrs to 9 yrs for China hereafter. As a result, India economy doubled in 6 yrs from $1 trillion (2007) to $2.1 trillion(2013) despite 3 yrs economic growth(real GDP) like 6.7%, 6.5% and 5%.