What is the most brazen thing Pakistan could do to get even with India right now in Kashmir?

[Aspen]

I think Pakistani military may be trying to coordinate a possible strike strategy with PLA

One option for Pakistan is to go launch across LOC in Azad Kashmir and aim straight for the valley. Advantage of this is that Pakistan has better supply lines to Azad Kashmir and as IA is distracted in Ladakh, their forces in AK will be reduced. However, the risk is that India will be expecting an attack from this direction which is a problem and China will not be able to help in Azad Kashmir if Pakistan needs reinforcements.

Second option for Pakistan is to heavily reinforce LOC and then launch a surprise attack across LAC with Chinese forces to seize northern Ladakh in a shock and awe style operation with full airpower. If successful, a Pakistan and Chinese operation to seize Ladakh will make it significantly easier to take more of Kashmir later, since Pakistan will now surround IOK from north, east, and west leaving Indian forces extremely vulnerable in the south. The risk with this is that if Pakistani forces strike from Ladakh and reduce forces in Azad Kashmir, an Indian diversion to take Azad Kashmir has a higher chance of being successful. The way to counter this is to bulk up LOC to defend against an Indian attempt to take AJK while Pakistan and China strike for the kill in Ladakh.

 

[FuturePAF]

1. Nap of the earth flying is done at low speed otherwise you might bang into something.
2. Supersonic flight needs afterburner which will increase fuel consumption by a huge amount and reduce range. Supersonic flight at low levels is even more fuel consuming.
3. wing tip smoke generators work well at a good height. Nobody will see them if you are flying nap of the earth.
4. You should decide if you want to avoid being seen (nap of the earth flight) or you want to be seen ( sonic boom and smoke generators)

fly low and slow, dodging enemy air defenses till near just over Srinagar, dropping leaflets over select places along the route, if possible. Then (depending on how feasible it would be based on enemy units) pull up at full afterburner, with the smoke generators going and bug out if there dropping chaff, flare and RF decoys to cover the escape. The pull up and egress will be the harder parts.

It may just be more feasible to launch supersonic cruise missiles over the intended point, such as the CX-1. Basically a shot across the bow move, which historically has been seen as a warning shot. It’s not as brazen but it doesn’t put the pilots at risk. Perhaps these could be fitting with the smoke generators and programmed to maneuver when near Srinagar so that the smoke is visible. Should the missiles be lost, they wouldn’t be as much of a loss as a pilot or a JF-17, and the technology would be similar to the Brahmos the enemy already operates.

 

[Aspen]

fly low and slow, dodging enemy air defenses till near just over Srinagar, dropping leaflets over select places along the route, if possible. Then (depending on how feasible it would be based on enemy units) pull up at full afterburner, with the smoke generators going and bug out if there dropping chaff, flare and RF decoys to cover the escape. The pull up and egress will be the harder parts.

It may just be more feasible to launch supersonic cruise missiles over the intended point, such as the CX-1. Basically a shot across the bow move, which historically has been seen as a warning shot. It’s not as brazen but it doesn’t put the pilots at risk. Perhaps these could be fitting with the smoke generators and programmed to maneuver when near Srinagar so that the smoke is visible. Should the missiles be lost, they wouldn’t be as much of a loss as a pilot or a JF-17, and the technology would be similar to the Brahmos the enemy already operates.

I think whole idea of going for valley in current situation is wrong. Indians have been planning for attack across LOC for decades. Do something they haven't planned for.

Seizing northern Ladakh will be easier to do because LAC is already going hot, Pakistan can blend right in with Chinese on LAC and increase the power projection there. India knows China is there but Pakistan showing up at LAC will be a nasty surprise for India.

Mentally, Indians have already accepted that they are losing territory in Ladakh, we need to keep the momentum going.

 

[FuturePAF]

I think whole idea of going for valley in current situation is wrong. Indians have been planning for attack across LOC for decades. Do something they haven't planned for.

Seizing northern Ladakh will be easier to do because LAC is already going hot, Pakistan can blend right in with Chinese on LAC and increase the power projection there. India knows China is there but Pakistan showing up at LAC will be a nasty surprise for India.

Mentally, Indians have already accepted that they are losing territory in Ladakh, we need to keep the momentum going.

Then in that case, China and Pakistan could retake the Siachen Glacier. The Chinese are right on the supply road so Indian reinforcements will be limited to those that can be provided by air.

although I doubt China will engage in any kinetic action unless India escalated the conflict to such a point that China is forced to react. Even then, China will not want a war, but may support Pakistani troops with logistical support or indirect military support, airborne surveillance, EW, etc.

If Pakistan (and China covertly) can retake Siachen it will be a traumatizing even for the Indian psyche. It may even make the Modi government fall, sort of similar to how Argentina’s junta fell after the loss in the falklands war. At which point a government may emerge that realizes that it is better to make Peace with Pakistan then to continue its policies in Kashmir. At the very least, that new, non-BJP government may reverse the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A

 

[Aspen]

Then in that case, China and Pakistan could retake the Siachen Glacier. The Chinese are right on the supply road so Indian reinforcements will be limited to those that can be provided by air.

although I doubt China will engage in any kinetic action unless India escalated the conflict to such a point that China is forced to react. Even then, China will not want a war, but may support Pakistani troops with logistical support or indirect military support, airborne surveillance, EW, etc.

If Pakistan (and China covertly) can retake Siachen it will be a traumatizing even for the Indian psyche. It may even make the Modi government fall, sort of similar to how Argentina’s junta fell after the loss in the falklands war. At which point a government may emerge that realizes that it is better to make Peace with Pakistan then to continue its policies in Kashmir. At the very least, that new, non-BJP government may reverse the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A

I think 2 things are about to happen if India escalates followed by a kinetic Chinese response:

1. Pakistan will have a shot at taking back the Siachen Glacier and part of northern Ladakh
2. China and Pakistan will force India to reinstate Article 370

 

[FuturePAF]

I think 2 things are about to happen if India escalates followed by a kinetic Chinese response:

1. Pakistan will have a shot at taking back the Siachen Glacier and part of northern Ladakh
2. China and Pakistan will force India to reinstate Article 370

Your right. These are the two bad options (depending on if they respond kinetically or not), which India has to choose from. The alternative is a protracted standoff where anything could happen, and they risk a larger conflict.

Considering India track record, they will do some kind of show of resolve (for domestic consumption); bringing a large convoy of troops over that road near the LAC to Siachen. There is a chance, due to Murphy’s law, they risk a repeat of the 2001-2002 standoff in which they lost many troops from accidents, while tying themselves down in an ultimately futile move that further depleted the Indian Army.

A quick resolution to the status quo ante (re-instating Article 370) in all but name after a show of resolve movement of troops to reinforce Siachen maybe what they ultimately do. It will come down to is China is willing to accept that in order to ease its posture via a vi India.

 

[Cliftonite]

Are we fully prepared for war or are we just fanboying? We do not want a second 1965. Indian army is occupied but their navy isn't. They will blockade Keamari port and Port Qasim. We need to have that covered.

 

[Aspen]

Are we fully prepared for war or are we just fanboying? We do not want a second 1965. Indian army is occupied but their navy isn't. They will blockade Keamari port and Port Qasim. We need to have that covered.

Short answer is yes we are prepared, but if we launch a joint offensive with China in northern Ladakh and Siachen, China will most likely play the main role clearing the way open with massive firepower and Pakistan will be working in a secondary role to secure it once China clears out the IA. It will be a joint operation that will likely have to be executed in a blitzkrieg style manner to be successful, ie. lighting airpower and fast land advances to catch IA by surprise, shock and awe style so that IA does not have a chance to regroup, retreat, or even communicate.

It is very doable as long as we can keep it a surprise.

 

[Yankee-stani]

It way to early to tell whether we are in the "cusp" of another Indo-Pak or Indo-China conflict one thing for sure is CPEC is much safer now from potential Indian "proxies" I just hope Beijing keeps the pressure on Delhi much more and sends a stern message to Washington that "play time is over"

 

[FuturePAF]

It way to early to tell whether we are in the "cusp" of another Indo-Pak or Indo-China conflict one thing for sure is CPEC is much safer now from potential Indian "proxies" I just hope Beijing keeps the pressure on Delhi much more and sends a stern message to Washington that "play time is over"

This episode in Ladakh should demonstrate how much BRI in general and CPEC in particular are being elevated one of the “Core National Interests” of China. China is willing to risk its trade with India to secure its future trade corridors.

The larger issue is, India violated its agreement with China by colluding with other powers. China has been largely neutral in the Indo-Pak issue in Kashmir but when India ramped up efforts with other nations to encircle China (Indian naval operations in the South China Sea is just one example, and the Logistical/basing deals with other nations also hints at the danger of non-Indian troops accessing bases close to China’s borders) and turned Ladakh into a Union territory, China must of felt it needed to act.

 

[MilSpec]

Couple of ideas:

1. Get China's permission to launch a dozen cruise missiles from Pakistan across LAC into Ladakh.
2. Launch thousands of cyberattacks on Indian defense companies to wipe out their computers, steal schematics for Tejas and Indian defence plans and blackmail them by threatening to publish it online.
3. Fly drones disguised with Bangladeshi colors deep into Indian Ocean and then penetrate eastern sea coast of India from Bay of Bengal and bomb Indian airbases like Pearl Harbor. If Bangladesh claims it, double win.

Brilliant Plan, sounds watertight. very much in line with demonstrated plans of PA like OP Gibraltor, Brasstacks and Searchlight.

 

[pothead]

to the pakistan Military, respectfully.....

Brilliant Plan, sounds watertight. very much in line with demonstrated plans of PA like OP Gibraltor, Brasstacks and Searchlight.

Second that,
In fact their military should follow the plan ASAP.
What can go wrong eh...

 

[BL33D]

Brilliant Plan, sounds watertight. very much in line with demonstrated plans of PA like OP Gibraltor, Brasstacks and Searchlight.

Its almost like we are sitting in Pakistan War Planning room. Feels so real.

 

[pothead]

Its almost like we are sitting in Pakistan War Planning room. Feels so real.

Surreal,
Thank god for the partition, otherwise we would have those brains residing in our country.

 

[Asian.Century]

Wisdom says - Hold, Patience is the key to winning Strategically and Tactically.