Good idea but impractical. An independent Kashmir is not viable and will collapse like a house of cards sooner than later.
There is a section of Kashmir’s society on both sides of the border that has been shouting from the rooftops for ‘Independence’ of Kashmir. They neither want to remain with India nor join Pakistan. Do these hotheads know the consequences of an independent Kashmir?
Let’s check it out.
Reasons why an independent Kashmir is not viable.
1) Located in one of the most unstable regions in the world in terms of terrorism.
2) Could only set themselves up for an invasion from any one of possibly 3 neighboring countries.
3) Independence doesn’t guarantee stability.
4) Independence doesn’t guarantee safety.
5) A predominantly Muslim nation could fall prey to an extreme form of Islam based on strict Sharia Law like the TTP/ISIS aim to establish. Their gradual influence in a new sovereign state of Kashmir would be a real possibility and a clear danger to the region.
6) An independent Kashmir will not be economically viable since there are no industries or natural resources. Agriculture and tourism cannot sustain a country’s economy. Investors would think twice before investing in a land-locked country. Independence doesn’t guarantee economic prosperity.
7) How would the country even generate income in an area that has no resources? India doles out to Kashmir, on an average Rs 50,000 crores or $9 billion every year in the form of subsidies, grants, aid and infrastructure. Stop this and Kashmir would sink faster than the Titanic. Which country will provide them the necessary funds to keep afloat? None.
8) How would they find resources for raising an army for internal as well as external threats? A minimum of three divisions would be required and probably an indep armored brigade for the defence of an independent Kashmir. Cost? At least $10 billion! Where is the money? Or where would it come from? And needless to say, maintaining this force will not be chicken feed.
9) Kashmir is predominantly rural and makes nearly all of its paltry income from agriculture in a region as rocky as the Himalayas. There won’t be much money available to sustain a government in Kashmir and have enough funds for education, infrastructure, healthcare, defense, etc. It would not be able to fund such projects with the limited sources of income without running up monstrous debts which would quickly cripple the economy of the nation, scaring away investors, resulting in perpetual poverty, and finally in a collapse.
10) China will probably smell an opportunity here and try and convert this new country into another autonomous region of China like the TAR by pumping in funds and resources. After all, it has a strategic and economic interest in Gilgit/Baltistan. China is heading stealthily towards its ambitious plan to safeguard its Persian Gulf route through Kashmir, which would also get a potential naval base in the Arabian Sea at Gwadar, linked by road to its eastern Xinjiang province.
So, the bottom line is that an independent Kashmir is out of the question as it will not be viable.