US Poised to Attack Extremists in FATA

[JK!]

The Durand line is rugged and mountainous so what APCs could they possibly have sent to negotiate this terrain?

I mean this is ideal ambush territory from the tribals perspective.

 

[IceCold]

my dear friend u r absolutely correct but i am sorry i dont consider the militants as our people.

By our people i mean the ones that support the GOP and the PA, not the tajiks and afghans or any other hiding in our territory. The US will not differentiate and bomb them all which will only increase our problems because we will loose support and in the end US will just pack things up and leave and it will be us and us alone bearing the cost of it. Nature of FATA and other adjacent areas is very complex, US or NATO doesn't give a squat about it, we on the other hand can't let loose on everyone there. We will have to make a difference in people who are ready to work with the GOP and who can be persuaded in giving up arms and start working with the GOP with those who can't think other then the way of the gun. Once differentiated, then those who can't think other then gun have to be taken out.

 

[fatman17]

By our people i mean the ones that support the GOP and the PA, not the tajiks and afghans or any other hiding in our territory. The US will not differentiate and bomb them all which will only increase our problems because we will loose support and in the end US will just pack things up and leave and it will be us and us alone bearing the cost of it. Nature of FATA and other adjacent areas is very complex, US or NATO doesn't give a squat about it, we on the other hand can't let loose on everyone there. We will have to make a difference in people who are ready to work with the GOP and who can be persuaded in giving up arms and start working with the GOP with those who can't think other then the way of the gun. Once differentiated, then those who can't think other then gun have to be taken out.

fair point iceCold!

 

[Majnun]

US doesn't understand the intricacies of the system of any area they invade.
With Iraq, they didn't understand how to handle it, where most forces from other countries would have been able to.
With Afghanistan, it was even trickier, and they succeeded in making a mess of it there, too.
The situation in NWFP and FATA is basically the same as in Afghanistan. The US just aren't any good at handling the people of a foreign place. They always succeed in antagonizing the local population.
Its even more difficult and dangerous in Afghanistan and NWFP than it is in Iraq, where the people basically just want to kill each other anyways.
I really think it would be impossible to contain the populace if US came into FATA.

Having said that, I would like to say that now, with these new posts talking of more possibilities of why the US is at the border, this is all now most probably hypothetical musing.

If they are there to plug the gaps, then, thank God, we should see an improvement in the security situations in both Pakistan (where it was over-dramatized anyways) and Afghanistan.

But even then there is the risk of US doing something stupid, because thats just how their army is.

 

[GHATAK]

I do not think that the US will ever attack Pakistan. However, they will surely undertake limited scale operations in NWFP and FATA as they are already doing.

Reasons -

1. Afghanistan is a land locked country. And the supplies will be affected.
Not all the supplies can be done through planes. The US needs a country with ports and land based connectivity to afghanistan.
2. The US needs the support of atleast 1 muslim country to fight its WoT which is mainly fought against Islamic terrorists.
3. US does not want to destablize a country of 160 million, which has been its ally. Doing this will prevent any other asian country from joining hands with the US.

However, pray that another 9/11 does not happen. If it happens, nobody can stop the americans from invading pakistan.

Hence, it is in the best interest for pakistan, to get rid of the safe havens and fight the war willingly. This is also a real test for the Islamic Pak army which traditionally consider India as a Hiindu nation and think that being martrayed while fighting the Indians will give them heaven. This however does not work against the taliban, who also think the same. The real abilities of the army will be seen on how it fights the insurgents.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Hence, it is in the best interest for pakistan, to get rid of the safe havens and fight the war willingly. This is also a real test for the Islamic Pak army which traditionally consider India as a Hiindu nation and think that being martrayed while fighting the Indians will give them heaven. This however does not work against the taliban, who also think the same. The real abilities of the army will be seen on how it fights the insurgents.

The Army has already shown that it can fight very effectively against the Taliban when needed - refer to the push against Baitullah Mehsud in Waziristan and Mullah Fazlullah in Swat, where the two entities could put up barely any resistance.

The Army "relocated" in both areas when the civilian government came into power, as 'peace deals' were attempted again.

The Army can fight, no question about that - the issues affecting the decision to fight however are many.

National consensus amongst Pakistanis on this war, political consensus, the development of a long term relationship with the US that goes beyond military supplies for the duration of this conflict, the continued hostile relationship with India (something that has reared its ugly head again with the unsubstantiated Indian allegations over the Embassy bombing and statements about the ISI), etc. etc.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

I wrote before and i write again...

Clear status where Pakistan Stand in the War against Terror is the requirement of the Time.. Dual policies have been kicked back in Paksitan face and now we need to be certain as what to do... We had a plan for Afghanistan but i think it is lost somewhere due to to many IA's involved and our own people working against us!

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

Very nice post ICE COLD

 

[JK!]

The WoT from Pakistans perspective needs to be fought along Pakistans requirements for its own national security and not anyone elses as we will have to live with the consequences not ISAF, India, the US or Afghanistan. Hence I would much prefer to see the Pakistan Armed forces dealing with this.

However, although its clear that something needs to be done no one in the GoP seems to have the balls to act with some urgency. This is why I would support limited US action by Special Forces and airpower to strike at the heart of the Terrorist forces in FATA.

 

[Skywalker]

The WoT from Pakistans perspective needs to be fought along Pakistans requirements for its own national security and not anyone elses as we will have to live with the consequences not ISAF, India, the US or Afghanistan. Hence I would much prefer to see the Pakistan Armed forces dealing with this.

However, although its clear that something needs to be done no one in the GoP seems to have the balls to act with some urgency. This is why I would support limited US action by Special Forces and airpower to strike at the heart of the Terrorist forces in FATA.

You better keep your thoughts with you, we are a sovereign nation and would not tolerate any adventures by anyone.

its an open secret that as suddenly why Karzai started barking more, he does not have balls to say that its all because of dictation from United states and India. Its a synergy between India, US and coward afghanis.

One thing for sure, americans knows very well neither we are Iraq nor Afghanistan. Give it a try and you will see the consequences in the form of destabilization of the region.

 

[Skywalker]

It is extremely unlikely that either the US or NATO forces will actually "invade" Pakistani territory; by that I mean set up base camps and bring in artillery and mechanized divisions to give support to swarming infantry divisions. They will most probably rely on local intelligence to target hostile groups (Taliban, AQ, other tribals who provide manpower to campaigns in Afghanistan) via precision strikes. At the most special forces will be inserted from time to time to carry out more intense ground operations.

For any of the Pakistani forces (PA, FC etc) to engage the incoming US forces would be a big mistake because they will only make themselves targets and that would end up in a huge mess which is just not worth it as far as Pakistan is concerned.

The possible sequelae of such a venture is that we may see the upper echelons of the militant groups migrating into larger Pakistani cities where they can seek refuge (get lost in the crowd) and nullify the threat of US/NATO aerial bombings. This would be disastrous for Pakistan itself because it will see the threat of militancy metastasize into its larger economic and social centers. Needless to say this should be avoided at all costs. One way to do this would be to use the full might of the PA and their subsidiaries to establish a dragnet along the eastern borders of FATA and the Frontier provinces to negate any movement of militants into eastern Pakistan.

come back to planet earth.

 

[JK!]

There are more risks than benefits for the US if they invade and supporting if you will a third major front in the WoT.

There is a huge risk of collateral damage and furthermore they will become like the Soviet Union and risk a Jihad like the one the Soviets faced being waged against them.

 

[Energon]

This sort of nullifies any advantages however.

Whatever domestic compulsions are preventing the PA from acting currently will not vanish, in fact will most likely strengthen, so why would such a dragnet and military action against militants work, or even be implemented (when it isn't currently) along a line pushed further to the East?

The argument of greater instability within Pakistan will hold true though - so the end result is an even worse situation, for both Pakistan and NATO.

If the US and NATO forces really amp up their aerial bombardment operations in western Pakistan it will become a matter of survival for the intelligentsia of the militants; in which case going into more inhabited areas which the US/NATO can't/won't bomb (for obvious reasons) will be an advantage enough.

As of right now the PA's efforts in the region haven't been very fruitful and they aren't nearly as big a threat as the NATO and US forces (if they decide to carry out continuous and elaborate operations in the area). As things stand right now, the status quo suits the militants the best. However if the US/NATO is to go ahead and get more involved in this area, then the dragnet option would be in the best interest of Pakistan (and everyone for that matter).

come back to planet earth.

By the looks of your posts so far it seems that you'd be better off heeding to some of your own advice first.

 

[roadrunner]

The US isn't going to invade Pakistan or bomb it. Not worth it. Even if they are sustaining casualties in Afghanistan from what are predominantly Afghani militants.

Of course, the reason the US won't bomb Pakistan has nothing to do with the US being a great ally of Pakistan.

 

[ejaz007]

Nato build-up gives tribesmen the jitters
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
ISPR says movement not unusual

By Mushtaq Yusufzai

PESHAWAR: After deployment along the Pak-Afghan border across the Kurram Agency, hundreds of Nato troops also took positions across the North Waziristan Agency (NWA) on Tuesday, creating panic among the already terrified tribesmen.

Official and tribal sources told this correspondent from NWA that the Nato troops started arriving near the border areas on Monday night. “Some of them had been brought in choppers and others by armoured personnel carriers. The troops had also shifted heavy arms and ammunition including tanks, heavy machineguns and artillery to the border,” said Haji Yaqub, a resident of border town Ghulam Khan.

The troops had been deployed near the border towns of Ghulam Khan, Saidgai, Shawal and Mir Safar. “They started setting up bunkers very close to the border while gunship helicopters are continuously hovering over the border,” said one Roohullah, a resident of the border town of Saidgai.

He said they had never before seen movement of foreign troops in such large numbers near the border. “For us, it’s just unusual as they are on the zero point,” said Roohullah, adding that so far the troops had not crossed the border.

The sources said the Nato troops dug trenches at Mughalgai near Zhawar camp, a famous training camp of Afghan Mujahideen commander, Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani, in Khost near Pakistan’s Saidgai town.

Another bunker was set up at Gurbaz near Tarkhobi area of Khost, close to Pakistan’s Ghulam Khan town. Similarly, the sources said, another trench was set up close to Mir Safar and Shawal towns of NWA.

According to sources, the Nato forces had planned setting up four new military camps along the border in the Taliban-dominated provinces of Afghanistan - Khost and Paktika. “They planned establishing four new military camps along the border and this latest deployment of the foreign troops was first step of their future planning,” said the sources.

Senior government officials said the Nato forces were also misinformed about al-Qaeda training camps at Deegan, Mirali and Miramshah in North Waziristan. The sources said the Nato troops were also informed about the presence of senior Afghan Taliban commanders at the residence of Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani at Danday Darpakhel, to condole with him the death of his son, Mohammad Omar Haqqani.

The 18-year-old son of veteran Taliban leader Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani was killed in a firefight with the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan’s Paktia province on Thursday. It merits a mention here that Nato had already deployed a large number of troops close to the border between Afghanistan’s Khost province and Pakistan’s Kurram tribal region.

On the other hand, Pakistani Taliban spokesman Maulvi Omar said Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s statement provided an opportunity to the US to deploy its troops near the tribal areas. “When a responsible person like the prime minister has himself said that foreign militants were hiding in Pakistani tribal areas and could cause another 9/11 like disaster then who will stop American forces from invading the country,” Omar asked.

He said the Taliban would welcome the Nato forces if they entered into the tribal areas. (According to Reuters, the Taliban spokesman in Bajaur welcomed the build-up on the border as a chance to kill more Americans. “It’s a gift that they’re coming here on our land and making it easy for us to kill our enemies, the enemies of Muslims,” Maulvi Omar said.

Meanwhile, the US-led Nato forces Tuesday night fired 30 mortar rounds from Afghanistan’s Paktika province on Pakistan’s Angoor Adda. A senior government official based in Wana, regional headquarters of South Waziristan Agency, confirmed the latest shelling on Pakistani territory, but said he had no further details about any loss. He said fearing airstrikers and shelling by the Nato forces on their villages, the residents started leaving their homes for safe and distant towns.

Agencies add: The Army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said it was probably a routine movement and the media had created “unnecessary hype”. Abbas told a private TV channel that there was no build up of Nato forces close to the Pak-Afghan border.

It was within their side and this was a routine movement for exercise or some operation there, he added. “We closely monitor all such moves so there is none of such thing very close to the border. Certainly we have coordination and communication with each other,” he added.

Abbas said such things were well coordinated and informed before so that no misunderstanding could take place. A spokesman for the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan said there was no question of troops entering Pakistan. “Our mandate stops at the border,” spokesman Captain Mike Finney said. There was some “extra activity” on the border with troops searching for surviving insurgents after Sunday’s attack that killed nine US troops, he said.

Nato build-up gives tribesmen the jitters