US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China

[PakFactor]

US leaves, Iran and Turkey, with Russia and China smiling.
Not a good move, but then again it’s Biden...

Honestly, even as an American the US needs to leave the region the destruction and interference done in that region, is probably worse than what Chengis Khan did in his days. The Muslims need to get there collective asses together and sort out their issues can't have outsiders constantly interfering time and time again and neglecting the will of the people.

 

[Arian]

Okay drop me a PM. I will reply

I can't see your profile to send you a PM. But here's my take.

1. China will play a larger role in the region. The United States will find fewer reasons to stay in the Middle East besides the security of Israel. The United States might eventually turn against Saudi Arabia because they may see Saudi Arabia as a competitor in the energy market that makes unconventional oil unprofitable for them.

2. Saudi Arabia and Arab countries may shift towards China if they can reduce their reliance on the United States for defense and security. Saudi Arabia may experience civil unrest for a while.

3. Turkey will become the dominant force in the region in the near future. They will increase their presence in the Mediterranean Sea, North Africa and the Caucasus.

4. Israel will stab Arabs in the back. Their relations won't improve until another republican president comes to power.

5. Iran's economy will maintain a positive GDP growth for the next 5 years. A government that has stronger ties with the IRGC will come to power. Khamenei may die by then. In that case, a military dictatorship can take over which will consist of younger IRGC generals.

6. Pakistan will distance itself from Arabs and the United States. It will get closer to China, Turkey and Iran. So will Qatar.

7. The Syrian civil war will end with an agreement that allows Turkey to have observer posts and military bases in the northern part of Syria, particularly Idlib. The US will continue to hold oil fields in the eastern part of Syria and will support Kurdish militias there. Iran and Russia will increase their presence in the western part of Syria. The rest of Syria will be controlled by the Syrian government.

8. The Yemen civil war will end with a stalemate with Houthis remaining in power in Western cities of Yemen, including the capital.

9. The North-South Transport Corridor will reduce the reliance of the world on the Red Sea and the Suez Canal for cargo and energy exports. That will have huge security and economic impacts for the Arab world.

Now it's your turn, bro.

 

[Deltadart]

USA would never do that infact they can vacate Japan but never middle East....
Israel would never be left alone

The geostrategic dynamics of the middle ease have changed tremendously in previous years. The region has undergone a massive realignment of interests of the former protagonists. Besides, the arabs are well on their way to fulfilling their destiny as it is stated in the Quran Pak. Moreover, Israel is more than capable enough on its own to keep things under control with their US supplied arsenal, even without any physical US presence in the region.

 

[T-SaGe]

"US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China" I read the first article on this subject maybe 15 years ago. I wanted to say this because we have to get grasp of the way the How to US bureaucracy works and which dynamics involved in this.

During this time, there were 5 elections, 3 times president changed. There were big changes in the A-team couple of times. During the same period, there have been happaned many policy disputes and even struggles between the US military bureaucracy and the WH many times. And the US is technically still where it started. The only thing that has changed is that the use of proxy forces has changed. However, the USA cannot leave militarily from the region easily even if it wants.

 

[bshifter]

Don't expect too much from US withdrawal. US won't leave ME because of Israel's interests in the region. Not the first time we heard of pulling out completely from Iraq and Afghanistan because the purpose is to stay in the heartland. American policies is to keep provoking Russia in eastern Europe, China in the South China Sea / Taiwan.
Interesting times ahead in the coming years but the US is destined to lose against the two formidable opponents.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

USA is just a confused and a distracted fireman who does not know which is which.

Too many bush fires and a lack of water.

That is why Biden is trying so hard to fix its broken deal with Iran after China-Iran 25-year economics cooperation shocked him.
But does any nation including EU trust USA today. 3 years more to go and it will be next change.

 

[kris]

The geostrategic dynamics of the middle ease have changed tremendously in previous years. The region has undergone a massive realignment of interests of the former protagonists. Besides, the arabs are well on their way to fulfilling their destiny as it is stated in the Quran Pak. Moreover, Israel is more than capable enough on its own to keep things under control with their US supplied arsenal, even without any physical US presence in the region.

Wrong....
Israel alone cannot handle wild and unpredictable leaders around it.

 

[Viet]

US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China
Experts say that the United States views China as a top strategic threat and therefore the Americans can reduce their presence in parts of the Middle East, even if such a move could be to the benefit of Iran.

Saturday 10/04/2021

Iran’s Navy officers line up to welcome the Chinese Navy destroyer as it makes a landfall at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. (AFP)


WASHINGTON – Last month, a special team consisting of 15 Pentagon senior officials began working on developing a comprehensive plan to prepare American forces, deployed in various parts of the world, for a possible mission to confront China’s threat.

It is within this context that the US committed last week to move all remaining combat forces from Iraq, although the two sides did not set a timeline in what would be the second withdrawal since the 2003 invasion.

The special team was established by US President Joe Biden, its lead unit is placed in the Department of Defence. The real leader is the Secretary of Defence. The Chief of Military and Political Affairs is in charge and the team’s leader is Eli Ratner, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s special assistant to China.

Ratner is expected to present a report in the coming weeks to the US Secretary of Defence and the National Security Committee on the required defence capabilities in the event of a military confrontation with China. Those capabilities, according to reports, include a defense strategy, an availability of personnel and weapons and actions to manage technical and cyber deficiencies.

Although Ratner’s report has not yet been released, a source familiar with the discussions taking place between the task force and other US official bodies confirmed it will include recommendations that will undoubtedly lead to a large-scale redeployment of US forces currently present in bases outside the United States.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that an in-depth discussion is taking place now about the effect of this redeployment on the number of American forces in the Arab Gulf region.

Although the discussion did not reach the stage of determining the number and type of forces to be transferred from the Gulf to the east, it is certain today that the American presence in the Gulf region will not remain the same. Indeed, a US debate has already begun about whether a military redeployment would affect American presence in the Gulf and the ability of the US to protect its interests and those of its allies, especially with the continued presence of Iran and its proxies in the region.

The solutions presented revolve around the development of defence capabilities in the Gulf region, especially those against missiles and conventional and unmanned aircraft to make up for the human shortage. As for the sea lanes, talks revolve around activating an agreement to protect navigation on a larger scale and raising the level of reliance on the region’s countries to defend their own waters against any Iranian aggression.

It is expected that Saudi Arabia will be the most affected by the American redeployment due to the large presence of US forces on its soil, on the one hand, and the threat that Yemen’s Houthi militias pose on the kingdom’s southern border on the other hand.

— New priorities —

Over the past few days, the United States has already started withdrawing some heavy military hardware from Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missile batteries and an aircraft carrier that has always been present in Saudi waters. According to US statements, this move was due to the need for this equipment to be deployed in other regions. In the coming days, the military redeployments will be even bigger, experts say, with a focus on keeping the advanced anti-ballistic missile defense system THAAD and a broad defensive and offensive air force on the Saudi territory.

Observers argue that recent joint Iraqi-US statements that centred on the presence of US forces amount to a reformulation of the current reality rather than a strategic shift.

The first “strategic dialogue” with Iraq under Biden’s administration came recently as Iranian-linked Shia paramilitary groups fire rockets nearly daily at bases with foreign troops in hopes of forcing a US exit.

The coalition is led from Baghdad by Brigadier General Ryan Reddott, who was officially named to an official advisory position last July.

Commenting on the news of troops’ withdrawal, the Pentagon said it would redeploy its personnel based on the nature of threats across the world.

Experts say that the United States views China as a top strategic threat and therefore the Americans can reduce their presence in parts of the Middle East, even if such a move could be to the benefit of Iran.

The experts point out that the withdrawal will be gradual, with Washington reducing its direct presence across military bases in the Gulf region and Iraq, provided that the air presence continues or is boosted as a future strategy in the region.

Earlier this week, Iraq and the US agreed in a videoconference led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein that Iraqi forces were ready to take on more responsibility.

“The parties confirmed that the mission of US and coalition forces has now transitioned to one focused on training and advisory tasks, thereby allowing for the redeployment of any remaining combat forces from Iraq, with the timing to be established in upcoming technical talks,” a joint statement said.

Iraq has walked a fine line in balancing its relations between the United States and Iran, which shares religious ties with its Shia-majority neighbour.

Iraqi calls soared for a withdrawal of US troops in January 2020 after former president Donald Trump ordered the assassination in Baghdad of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani — and tensions have remained high.

Biden in February ordered airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian-linked paramilitaries after a rocket attack killed a contractor for the US-led coalition and injured US personnel.

But Biden, in a rare point of agreement with Trump, has been looking for ways to wind down what have come to be dubbed “endless wars.”

Trump had ordered a drawdown in his final months from Iraq as well as Afghanistan with the number of US troops in each country dipping to 2,500 by January 15.

Iraq’s national security adviser Qassem al-Araji promised efforts to protect foreign forces and confirmed that the United States would move ahead with a pullout.

“The American side promised to withdraw an important number of its troops from Iraq,” he said.

The Pentagon declined to specify a timeline for a withdrawal, saying it would be worked out in the technical talks.

“We’ve all been working to an eventual redeployment,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “when there’s no need for American support on the ground.”

Former president Barack Obama, under whom Biden served as vice president, had removed all US forces from Iraq in a fulfilment of his pledges after opposing the 2003 invasion.

But Obama sent troops back in 2014 as the Islamic State group rampaged across Iraq and Syria, brutally slaying and enslaving all but Sunni Muslims as it established a self-styled “caliphate.”

Now, the focus on leaving Iraq comes as Biden increasingly looks to de-prioritise Middle Eastern wars and devote more resources to a global rivalry with China.

Biden has also taken a greater distance from ally Saudi Arabia, including ending support for its devastating war in Yemen and has looked to ease tensions with Iran.

Iraqi political circles say the withdrawal of ground forces from Iraq will give the US new possibilities to target pro-Iranian militias while avoiding direct confrontation. Also, this move will assist Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in pressing ahead with efforts to disarm militias while improving relations with both Washington and Arab countries.

Kadhimi is under pressure from Iran-backed militias to end the presence of 2,500 American soldiers on Iraqi soil, but Iraqi security officials say this limited presence is still needed for the security of Iraq.

Randa Selim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues at the DC-based Middle East Institute, described the joint Iraqi-US statement released on Wednesday as the result of cautious policies but with little change.

She said that the aim of the statements was, first, to “strengthen the position of the prime minister,” and secondly, to “send messages to the Iraqi people that there is a new relationship between the United States and Iraq, which does not focus solely on security.”

US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China | | AW

Last month, a special team consisting of 15 Pentagon senior officials began working on developing a comprehensive plan to prepare American forces, deployed in various parts of the world, for a possible mission to confront China’s threat.

thearabweekly.com

China is numero uno with unpredictable intentions. East Asia together with ASEAN is becoming world’s economic center. other parts of the world become less important. It’s ok for the US to go where the party is.

 

[PeaceGen]

US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China
Experts say that the United States views China as a top strategic threat and therefore the Americans can reduce their presence in parts of the Middle East, even if such a move could be to the benefit of Iran.

Saturday 10/04/2021

Iran’s Navy officers line up to welcome the Chinese Navy destroyer as it makes a landfall at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. (AFP)


WASHINGTON – Last month, a special team consisting of 15 Pentagon senior officials began working on developing a comprehensive plan to prepare American forces, deployed in various parts of the world, for a possible mission to confront China’s threat.

It is within this context that the US committed last week to move all remaining combat forces from Iraq, although the two sides did not set a timeline in what would be the second withdrawal since the 2003 invasion.

The special team was established by US President Joe Biden, its lead unit is placed in the Department of Defence. The real leader is the Secretary of Defence. The Chief of Military and Political Affairs is in charge and the team’s leader is Eli Ratner, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s special assistant to China.

Ratner is expected to present a report in the coming weeks to the US Secretary of Defence and the National Security Committee on the required defence capabilities in the event of a military confrontation with China. Those capabilities, according to reports, include a defense strategy, an availability of personnel and weapons and actions to manage technical and cyber deficiencies.

Although Ratner’s report has not yet been released, a source familiar with the discussions taking place between the task force and other US official bodies confirmed it will include recommendations that will undoubtedly lead to a large-scale redeployment of US forces currently present in bases outside the United States.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that an in-depth discussion is taking place now about the effect of this redeployment on the number of American forces in the Arab Gulf region.

Although the discussion did not reach the stage of determining the number and type of forces to be transferred from the Gulf to the east, it is certain today that the American presence in the Gulf region will not remain the same. Indeed, a US debate has already begun about whether a military redeployment would affect American presence in the Gulf and the ability of the US to protect its interests and those of its allies, especially with the continued presence of Iran and its proxies in the region.

The solutions presented revolve around the development of defence capabilities in the Gulf region, especially those against missiles and conventional and unmanned aircraft to make up for the human shortage. As for the sea lanes, talks revolve around activating an agreement to protect navigation on a larger scale and raising the level of reliance on the region’s countries to defend their own waters against any Iranian aggression.

It is expected that Saudi Arabia will be the most affected by the American redeployment due to the large presence of US forces on its soil, on the one hand, and the threat that Yemen’s Houthi militias pose on the kingdom’s southern border on the other hand.

— New priorities —

Over the past few days, the United States has already started withdrawing some heavy military hardware from Saudi Arabia, including Patriot missile batteries and an aircraft carrier that has always been present in Saudi waters. According to US statements, this move was due to the need for this equipment to be deployed in other regions. In the coming days, the military redeployments will be even bigger, experts say, with a focus on keeping the advanced anti-ballistic missile defense system THAAD and a broad defensive and offensive air force on the Saudi territory.

Observers argue that recent joint Iraqi-US statements that centred on the presence of US forces amount to a reformulation of the current reality rather than a strategic shift.

The first “strategic dialogue” with Iraq under Biden’s administration came recently as Iranian-linked Shia paramilitary groups fire rockets nearly daily at bases with foreign troops in hopes of forcing a US exit.

The coalition is led from Baghdad by Brigadier General Ryan Reddott, who was officially named to an official advisory position last July.

Commenting on the news of troops’ withdrawal, the Pentagon said it would redeploy its personnel based on the nature of threats across the world.

Experts say that the United States views China as a top strategic threat and therefore the Americans can reduce their presence in parts of the Middle East, even if such a move could be to the benefit of Iran.

The experts point out that the withdrawal will be gradual, with Washington reducing its direct presence across military bases in the Gulf region and Iraq, provided that the air presence continues or is boosted as a future strategy in the region.

Earlier this week, Iraq and the US agreed in a videoconference led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein that Iraqi forces were ready to take on more responsibility.

“The parties confirmed that the mission of US and coalition forces has now transitioned to one focused on training and advisory tasks, thereby allowing for the redeployment of any remaining combat forces from Iraq, with the timing to be established in upcoming technical talks,” a joint statement said.

Iraq has walked a fine line in balancing its relations between the United States and Iran, which shares religious ties with its Shia-majority neighbour.

Iraqi calls soared for a withdrawal of US troops in January 2020 after former president Donald Trump ordered the assassination in Baghdad of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani — and tensions have remained high.

Biden in February ordered airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian-linked paramilitaries after a rocket attack killed a contractor for the US-led coalition and injured US personnel.

But Biden, in a rare point of agreement with Trump, has been looking for ways to wind down what have come to be dubbed “endless wars.”

Trump had ordered a drawdown in his final months from Iraq as well as Afghanistan with the number of US troops in each country dipping to 2,500 by January 15.

Iraq’s national security adviser Qassem al-Araji promised efforts to protect foreign forces and confirmed that the United States would move ahead with a pullout.

“The American side promised to withdraw an important number of its troops from Iraq,” he said.

The Pentagon declined to specify a timeline for a withdrawal, saying it would be worked out in the technical talks.

“We’ve all been working to an eventual redeployment,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters, “when there’s no need for American support on the ground.”

Former president Barack Obama, under whom Biden served as vice president, had removed all US forces from Iraq in a fulfilment of his pledges after opposing the 2003 invasion.

But Obama sent troops back in 2014 as the Islamic State group rampaged across Iraq and Syria, brutally slaying and enslaving all but Sunni Muslims as it established a self-styled “caliphate.”

Now, the focus on leaving Iraq comes as Biden increasingly looks to de-prioritise Middle Eastern wars and devote more resources to a global rivalry with China.

Biden has also taken a greater distance from ally Saudi Arabia, including ending support for its devastating war in Yemen and has looked to ease tensions with Iran.

Iraqi political circles say the withdrawal of ground forces from Iraq will give the US new possibilities to target pro-Iranian militias while avoiding direct confrontation. Also, this move will assist Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in pressing ahead with efforts to disarm militias while improving relations with both Washington and Arab countries.

Kadhimi is under pressure from Iran-backed militias to end the presence of 2,500 American soldiers on Iraqi soil, but Iraqi security officials say this limited presence is still needed for the security of Iraq.

Randa Selim, Director of the Initiative for Track II Dialogues at the DC-based Middle East Institute, described the joint Iraqi-US statement released on Wednesday as the result of cautious policies but with little change.

She said that the aim of the statements was, first, to “strengthen the position of the prime minister,” and secondly, to “send messages to the Iraqi people that there is a new relationship between the United States and Iraq, which does not focus solely on security.”

US eyes tactical withdrawal from Middle East to focus on China | | AW

Last month, a special team consisting of 15 Pentagon senior officials began working on developing a comprehensive plan to prepare American forces, deployed in various parts of the world, for a possible mission to confront China’s threat.

thearabweekly.com

i recommend NATO indeed withdraws from the Middle East. Our involvement there hasn't been without controversy or mistakes (civilian deaths), we are hated and ridiculed regardless if we stay or if we leave, and as such it's better to leave.

We do however need energy security (additional domestic oil, gas, green energy and nuclear energy programs) and to stay free from regionally grown terror threats regardless of underlying ideology.I believe we don't need boots on the ground to achieve these goals. We can use airpower, and we can do so cheaper by investing in the development of air-drone armies. We need a healthy amount of investment in next-gen military hardware anyhow, to offset the sheer size and scientific and economic strength of the Chinese-Russian-Iranian allaince.

On online discussion forums, NATO is often portrayed by people from the regions we've been intervening in, as some great satanic power. By acting more from a defensive stance, with a focus on research and development of new tech, we can counter that view. Which is important, because half of the war is the battle for public opinion.
But it's going to take decades of persistence to really reap the greatest rewards of those defensive tactics.
However, we'll notice an immediate drop in casualties among our own troops, which is something our troops and citizens will greatly appreciate.

 

[flowerfan2020]

Arab NATO is 600-700 Million strong with modern weaponry, wealth, endless manpower and with manfacturing capabilites.. They are well drilled enough to even take on much much much larger foes and capable of fighting for decades endless..

Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Morocco
Egypt
Sudan
UAE
Bahrain
Oman
Qatar
Kuwait
Jordan
Tunisia



Don't confuse having political ties with a certain country as invasion lmao. Take it easy with that. First of Lebanon as in the gov't has no ties with Iran but Iran has ties with a non state actor entity in Lebanon which is clearly different thing. Even having relations with Syria back in 80s means nothing. You haven't conquered a piece of land since the fall of the sassind empire

Yeah, in paper but in reality they couldn't even beat Israel, a tiny country.

 

[retaxis]

Yeah, in paper but in reality they couldn't even beat Israel, a tiny country.

Arabs can not beat a single country that is 1/50 of their population so instead they choose to fight among themselves. There is a big difference between north africans who are partially arab and say gulf arabs or Iraqi arabs. They do not all share similar goals that is why they are not one country.

Plus the world mostly developed nations are becoming less and less religious so its going to be another crack in Arab affairs. Very religious arabs who want to take on Iran/Turkey/Israel and secular arabs who want to develop their own countries.

 

[jupiter2007]

This is bad news, without US involvement, Isis could easily rebuild it's strength and wreck havoc.

Iraqi military and Iran militia can't do shit without US assistance.

Just look at Badia desert right now.

CIA is funding them and they are under USA control.

 

[striver44]

CIA is funding them and they are under USA control.

Only idiots said this.

The largest supplier of arms for Isis is Iraq, Syria and Iran.

 

[jupiter2007]

Only idiots said this.

The largest supplier of arms for Isis is Iraq, Syria and Iran.

USA want to see ME in turmoil...that’s why they convinced their puppet states to go after Syria. BTW, USA is buying cheap oil from ISIS so they are the best benefactor of this turmoil.
Turkey and Russia will cleanup the mess created by CIA and Mossad.

 

[striver44]

USA want to see ME in turmoil...that’s why they convinced their puppet states to go after Syria. BTW, USA is buying cheap oil from ISIS so they are the best benefactor of this turmoil.
Turkey and Russia will cleanup the mess created by CIA and Mossad.

Umm isn't here a better alibi than this??
US already had cheap and reliable oil supplies from its Gulf allies, and they could control those oilfields now because their troops on the ground (the YPG/PKK Kurds) are occupying Syria's oilfield for them.
Why wuld they ever need Isis?

please learn to use logic next time.