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Update: Iran Presidential Election 2017 - Rouhani is re-elected for second term

Mir Hossein Mousavi former Prime Minister of 8 years and long trusted by Khomeini, Karroubi the former head of Majlis, and Khatami former President, were all conspiring with secret Mossad/CIA/KSA agents to organize a color revolution to OVERTHROW THEIR OWN REGIME?

Yes, the best evidence is that Mousavi lost to Ahmadinejad, but still claimed to be the winner. You just have to listen to the video I posted, Mr.Afrasiabi explains it very well.

No doubt a tiny minority of protesters were paid to riot but vast majority of protesters were peaceful and green movement leaders were all part of nezam.

In 2011 in Syria, most protesters were peaceful and a minority was not. Today we have 2017 and now look at Syria.
Fortunately, before becoming IRGC leader, General Jafari studied extensively color revolutions, and so in 2009 Iran became the first country where a color revolution did not succeed.

In Tehran alone the first week after elections in 1388 3 MILLION people came out on the streets to protest! They are all foreign agents in color revolution?

Are you not willing to read or what? Read the article I posted, read every sentence carefully, there everything is explained.

Just like foreign agents are involved in spreading propaganda against Iran and Islamic republic, Islamic republic agents exist and work towards a certain agenda as well. It is a two way street. The average Iranian must be aware of BOTH

Aha, I could also assume you are an agent by what you write, but I don't think you are one.
You are just a guy who has no arguments and wants to divert attention by desperately writing some useless, random stuff in hope that nobody catches sight of the fact that everything you say is refuted by my previous post.

Oh and this one is also important:

The Militarization of the World: The Case of Iran

A bully or a mafia godfather would never run out of excuses to punish an insubordinate soul in “his territory.” Accordingly, U.S. imperialism has been very creative in invoking all kinds of excuses to punish Iran for its aspirations to national self-determination.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ismael-hosseinzadeh/the-militarization-of-the_b_784193.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/ismael-hosseinzadeh


So as I already said, Khamenei is absolutely right!
 
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Haha look, I dont need you to refer me to "Mr. Afrasiabi" - who calls himself Ahmadinejad supporter, what a neutral source! He doesn't say anything convincing either.

I not only lived through the 1388 events, I did my own independent research for months and had long discussions with various people. I studied every single irregularity in the election, read everything both sides said.

Its you that has read/watched a few articles /videos and has bought into this smearing campaign. I dont blame you though, sometimes such theories are easier to believe in than facing the truth.

Come to Iran and talk to the people and see if they also believe if Mousavi/Karubi/Khatami/Rafsanjani were part of a color revolution to overthrow their own regime. If there was a single shred of evidence for this ridiculous theory you believe in, Mousavi/Karubi/Khatami would undergo public trial and be in prison instead of this illegal house arrest / mamnu tasvir. Mousavi and Karubi have already demanded a public trial but it was rejected...I wonder why!

Anyways, believe what you want to believe. Thankfully majority of Iranian people have their eyes open and are not easily fooled.
 
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During the 2009 elections there were 5 foreign polling organizations that conducted polls both before and after the Elections. These were New American Foundation, Global Scan, University of Maryland, World Public Opinion and Charney Research. All these Independent polls showed that Ahmadinejad had a clear lead over Mousavi and Karubi and their results were very similar to the polls conducted by the University Of Tehran leading up to the elections. The Pro Green Reformists want us to forget the results of foreign independent polls and believe that Ahmadinejad had less than 6 million votes during the 09 elections!
 
Please answer each of the following points whoever thinks the 1388 / 2009 elections were fair:

-Why would Mousavi, Karubi, Khatami, and Rafsanjani who all had highest posts from prime minister to president to parliament speaker and the person who put Khamenei as leader, want to overthrow their own regime through a color revolution? Why do such treason against the people if people voted for someone else? Why dont officials agree to public trial against Mousavi and Karubi and present all the facts to gain trust of people, why resort to illegal house arrest? Why are they afraid of public trial?

-How did Ahmadinejad win in every single candidates home city / province? Mousavi, Karubi, Rezaee all lost their home provinces. This never happens. Ethnic candidate always do well in home provinces and among their people.

For example in 2013, in Boyer-Ahmad province which is Rezaees ethnicity, Rezaee won that province with huge 145,000 votes. In 2009, when overall turnout was HIGHER, Rezaee LOSES that province and gets only 9,000 votes. That is 16 times difference during a time where voter turnout was lower!

For Karubi, in 2005, he received 440,000 votes in home province of Lorestan and won that province. In 2009 where voter turnout was higher, he only received 44,000 in that home province. That is a TEN times difference.

Same story with Mousavi and how he lost Azeri provinces. This is unprecedented in Iranian elections and laughable.

-Rezaee confirmed that the number of people that prior to election had given his party their IDs and said they will vote for him was lower than actual votes on election day. Rezaee, who is conservative, ALSO complained of fraud. So former IRGC commander was part of color revolution too? He only withdrew his complaint after some time when Khamenei drew red lines.

-Why did Khamenei confirm election results right after election, before Guardian council independently confirmed results? This was unprecedented. This was so odd that some people thought maybe Ahmadineajd had took Khamenei hostage and forced him to do it.

-During first week of protests, Qalibaf confirms that one of the days, 3 million people came out to protest for Mousavi in city of Tehran. This is while Mousavis votes for entire province of Tehran was 3.4 million...so pretty much every single Mousavi voter in the province had to come out which is highly unlikely. A better explanation is Mousavis votes in Tehran were much higher than 3.4 million... Or maybe Qalibaf was involved in color revolution too and purposely exaggerated the protesters?

-Statistical anaylsis of results confirm high irregularity using Benfords Law and other methods. Here are some reports:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/note24jun2009.pdf
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy.../06/20/AR2009062000004.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664763.2013.838664?tokenDomain=eprints&tokenAccess=gIGmUVmnjNpDyrXWhsYz&forwardService=showFullText&doi=10.1080/02664763.2013.838664&doi=10.1080/02664763.2013.838664&journalCode=cjas20

-Higher turnout means people coming out to demand change. This is the case for every election. Low turnout favours the status quo. Karbaschi said 'If more than 32 million votes are cast, the possibility that Ahmadinjad will not win is over 65 percent," he said. "But if 27 million people or less vote, the likelihood of a change is less than 35 percent' turnout was huge, 85% with 39 million people...and everything turned out as flipped as expected.
http://www.webcitation.org/5hAJtahRw?url=http://www.newsobserver.com/1635/story/1538805.html

-How did Ahmadienjad win with 24.5 million votes, and was 'disqualified' to run now? Were 24.5 million people wrong in voting for him? Or maybe, the 24.5 million figure is ridiculous in the first place since he never got that much votes. Ahmadinejad had some support among poor due to populist policies but the 24.5 million is a joke.

In 2001, Khatami which is 100% reform candidate not even a moderate, received nearly 22 million votes with only 68% turnout. And that is during a time where some Iranians were dissapointed in Khatami and did not vote, and some other also did not vote because he would win anyway. Yet he still received 22 million! In 2009 Iranians political positions flipped 180 degrees and Ahmadinejad got 24.5 million? During a time where so much opposition was mounting to Ahmadinejad? What a joke.


Anyway as I said earlier most peoples eyes are open and they are not fooled by smearing campaigns. A fair public trial would be the best way to settle this and restore confidence. However, seeing how so many years has passed by and illegal house arrest has continued, I am not too hopeful...
 
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شما عزیزان هنوز هم می خواید ثابت کنید که دروغ 88 تون ، راسته !؟
آدمی که ذاتش بد باشه ، دروغ می گه و بعد روی دروغش می ایسته ...

همه می دانند که سال 88 رای احمدی نژاد بیشتر بود ولی خب مزدور بودن و دروغگو بودن که حد و حصری نداره
 
When it comes to public trial, I have not doubt that this will be held, if the right international circumstances exist. Iran doesn’t live alone, and the same foreigners who already wanted to influence the situation inside Iran would try this again, so of course Iranian decision makers are concerned when it comes to elections or trials or demonstrations or whatsoever, and they have very good reasons to be concerned, as I already explained.

But if that’s curious to you, what is way more curious: Why did Mousavi not provide any evidence that he was the winner, as Mr.Afrasiabi points out? Now 8 years have passed and he still has not provided any evidence. Why not? Isn’t it weird that Mousavi supporters like you claim there are lots of evidences that Ahmadinejad lost, but the person concerned, that means Mousavi himself (!), does not provide any evidences? Why doesn’t he take the evidence from you and present them as his own? Obviously he himself doesn’t believe in your evidences.
It is not the job of his opponents to prove anything. It is like in the nuclear negotiations: First the US claims that Iran wants to built nuclear weapons, but the US doens’t provide any evidence for it, they say it is Irans duty to provide evidences that it is not building nuclear weapons.

When you cannot understand why so many people voted for Ahmadinejad, then this is your own problem. I cannot look in the head of people and say why they voted for him, it doesn’t has to do anything with race or ideology or whatsoever, they have their own individuell reasons why they vote for or against someone. For example, as Rouhani said, and as Zarif said when he was in Munich/Germany, in 2013 more than half of Rouhani voters came from rural areas. So why did they vote for him? Because they are tendentially more liberal minded than urban people? Of course not, I don’t know why they voted for him, they all have their own individuell reasons for it.

What is important is that in 2009, before and after the elections, different polls from different institutions (and not non-objective iranian ones, but objective foreign ones) all showed Ahmadinejad as the winner, with the same amount of votes (plus-minus a few percent). Nobody of us knows why they voted for him, the only thing that matters is: they did.


And why did Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, etc. want to work sercretely with foreigners? How can I now that?! I cannot look into their head and say why they did that. They had their own reasons (and I assume shameful ones). But don’t act like this is something unbelievable, everywhere in the world politicians have worked with foreigners to bring down political systems they themselves are/were part of, this is not something unusual.
 
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Please answer each of the following points whoever thinks the 1388 / 2009 elections were fair:

-Why would Mousavi, Karubi, Khatami, and Rafsanjani who all had highest posts from prime minister to president to parliament speaker and the person who put Khamenei as leader, want to overthrow their own regime through a color revolution?

The answer is in your question. These guys were the elites of the system. With Rafsanjani (8 years President), Khatami (8 years President), Mousavi (8 years Prime Minister), Karoubi (head of majlis), all controlling the regime for the all those years, they did not like it that a new group was entering the scene. Ahmadenijad's first win was an unexpected shock to them. The second time, they refused to let it happen again. Do we not remember the chain murders between '88 and '98 which some linked to Rafsanjani? These are the sort of people who are ready to say anything, do anything, claim anything, to remain in power, and a wild card like Ahmadenijad, who was not part of the elite system, was terrifying.

Let me remind you that the first time Rafsanjani lost agains Ahmadenijad, he also screamed that there was fraud. At that time, no one listened, because no one care for him. He learned from this, and planned better next time.

Why do such treason against the people if people voted for someone else?

Power.

Why dont officials agree to public trial against Mousavi and Karubi and present all the facts to gain trust of people, why resort to illegal house arrest? Why are they afraid of public trial?

Because sometimes a country's stability and security is the highest importance. To put them on a trial, at the moment, will open a lot of wounds, and there will a renewal of conflicts. The best way to handle a volatile situation is to keep it as calm as possible.

-How did Ahmadinejad win in every single candidates home city / province? Mousavi, Karubi, Rezaee all lost their home provinces. This never happens. Ethnic candidate always do well in home provinces and among their people.

For example in 2013, in Boyer-Ahmad province which is Rezaees ethnicity, Rezaee won that province with huge 145,000 votes. In 2009, when overall turnout was HIGHER, Rezaee LOSES that province and gets only 9,000 votes. That is 16 times difference during a time where voter turnout was lower!

For Karubi, in 2005, he received 440,000 votes in home province of Lorestan and won that province. In 2009 where voter turnout was higher, he only received 44,000 in that home province. That is a TEN times difference.

Same story with Mousavi and how he lost Azeri provinces. This is unprecedented in Iranian elections and laughable.

Iranians do not vote merely based on ethnic lines. Why then have elections? Just say give the hometowns to the candidates and not waste anyone's time. Ghalibaf is ethnically Kurd. Do we now expect every Kurd to vote for Ghalibaf? Did he win in Kurdish votes last time?

All three of your examples have clear reasons if you think about it closely. For example, Karoubi. In 2005, he was a legitimate possibility of winning. In the first round, he got 17.24%. In 2009, he was by no means a serious contender. Early on, it was obvious that the elections was between Ahmadenijad & Mousavi. In your example, 440,000 out of 5,070,114 votes he received in 2005 is 8%. In 2009, the loreston contribution is 6.4%. This is not that far from each other. As Karoubi becomes a less serious contender, then not only does his overall votes fall, but so does his niche votes.

Same with Mousavi. Why would Mousavi get an automatic win just because he is Azari? The Leader is Azari, and a lot of voters who felt strongly about the leader, felt strongly about Ahmadenijad. So, wouldn't an Azari voter who loves Azari Khamaeni, vote for Ahmadenijad? When it felt that Mousavi & Khameini had a falling out before?

And keep this in mind. Mousavi had been out of the political scene for many years and people didn't really remember him and many younger did not even know him, while Ahmadenijad was governor of Ardabil for 2 years.

-Rezaee confirmed that the number of people that prior to election had given his party their IDs and said they will vote for him was lower than actual votes on election day.

This is a joke. This is like Karoubi when he said the solution was to ask all his supporters to come to a location, and all of Ahmadenijad's supporters to also come, and to see who is more. Come on.

Rezaee, who is conservative, ALSO complained of fraud. So former IRGC commander was part of color revolution too? He only withdrew his complaint after some time when Khamenei drew red lines.

The conservative/reformist is a joke. Rafsanjani was suddenly a reformist? Karoubi was a reformist? Larijani is suppose to be a conservative, but he hated Ahmadenijad, and he is much better with Rouhani. The only distinction was elites vs non-elites.

-Why did Khamenei confirm election results right after election, before Guardian council independently confirmed results? This was unprecedented. This was so odd that some people thought maybe Ahmadineajd had took Khamenei hostage and forced him to do it.

Remember when Larijani congratulated Mousavi before the results were confirmed? Why did that happen? Why for the first time ever, certain elites tried to claim Mousavi won, when there were no results yet?

-During first week of protests, Qalibaf confirms that one of the days, 3 million people came out to protest for Mousavi in city of Tehran. This is while Mousavis votes for entire province of Tehran was 3.4 million...so pretty much every single Mousavi voter in the province had to come out which is highly unlikely. A better explanation is Mousavis votes in Tehran were much higher than 3.4 million... Or maybe Qalibaf was involved in color revolution too and purposely exaggerated the protesters?


Qalibaf didn't like Ahmadenijad either. Ever regime elite wanted Ahmadenijad as away from the system as far as possible.


Refute: http://brill-law.com/iran-2009-election---100710.html#StatisticalAnalysisBODY

Here are some articles that call into question the relevancy of Benford's Law in detecting fraud.

https://academic.oup.com/pan/articl...ord-s-Law-and-the-Detection-of-Election-Fraud
"It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its “success rate” either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst."
data from Ohio, Massachusetts and Ukraine, a

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/ae6b/9811d93caeda15ab8ad7060ee474cc186860.pdf
"However, looking at data from Ohio, Massachusetts and Ukraine, a s well as data artificially generated by a series of simulations, we argue here that Benford’s Law is essentially useless as a forensic indicator of fraud. "

http://thomaslotze.com/iran/
This article goes through it one by one and compares even US elections.

https://datatodisplay.com/blog/politics/benfords-law-elections-2/
"It has been suggested that the distribution of second digits in electoral data can be used as a possible indicator of fraud and that this circumnavigates the problem associated with (roughly) constant constituency/precinct size that can lead to deviations from Benford’s law for the first digit. Data from the (presumably fraud-free) UK general election of 2010 seems to follow the posited second-digit distribution closely. However, I am yet to be convinced there is any compelling reason to expect clean electoral data to follow it in general and fraudulent election results to differ. Hence I’m currently unconvinced of the usefulness of studying second digits as a tool in election forensics."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/unconvincing-to-me-use-of-benfords-law/
"I don’t buy it. First off, the whole first-digit-of-7 thing seems irrelevant to me. Second, the sample size is huge, so a p-value of 0.007 isn’t so impressive. After all, we wouldn’t expect the model to really be true with actual votes. It’s just a model! Finally, I don’t see why we should be expecting distributions to be lognormal. Maybe there’s something I’m missing here, but that’s my quick take. This is not to say that I think the election was fair, or rigged, or whatever–I have absolutely zero knowledge on that matter–just that I don’t find this analysis convincing of anything."

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/note18jun2009.pdf
Even those who seem to claim there was a fraud based on this law, still have to add a caveat like this,
"Caveat: It is important to be clear that none of the estimates or test results in this report are proof that substantial fraud affected the 2009 Iranian election. The results suggest very strongly that there was widespread fraud in which the vote counts for Ahmadinejad were substantially augmented by artificial means"

"-Higher turnout means people coming out to demand change. This is the case for every election. Low turnout favours the status quo. Karbaschi said 'If more than 32 million votes are cast, the possibility that Ahmadinjad will not win is over 65 percent," he said. "But if 27 million people or less vote, the likelihood of a change is less than 35 percent' turnout was huge, 85% with 39 million people...and everything turned out as flipped as expected.
http://www.webcitation.org/5hAJtahRw?url=http://www.newsobserver.com/1635/story/1538805.html"

Such predictions have always shown to be not that useful. Remember the predictions regarding Trump? Some predicted landslide Clinton victory. I remember numbers as high as 90% being thrown around.

-How did Ahmadienjad win with 24.5 million votes, and was 'disqualified' to run now? Were 24.5 million people wrong in voting for him? Or maybe, the 24.5 million figure is ridiculous in the first place since he never got that much votes. Ahmadinejad had some support among poor due to populist policies but the 24.5 million is a joke.

This is a ridiculous reasoning. Khatami was banned for running too. Does this mean Khatami's presidency was a fraudulent?

In 2001, Khatami which is 100% reform candidate not even a moderate, received nearly 22 million votes with only 68% turnout. And that is during a time where some Iranians were dissapointed in Khatami and did not vote, and some other also did not vote because he would win anyway. Yet he still received 22 million! In 2009 Iranians political positions flipped 180 degrees and Ahmadinejad got 24.5 million? During a time where so much opposition was mounting to Ahmadinejad? What a joke.

Iranians are not Americans or Europeans. They don't vote on Left/Right lines. In US, a democratic voter votes for a democratic. Only a certain percentage of them flip. In Iran, such a thing does not exist. Reformist/Principalist exists more in the mind of politicians and the media. This is because in Iran, there is no two party system, nor as left/right distinctions very clear. if anything, someone like Ahmadenijad had a lot of financial socialist policies, so he should be more left than right.

As long as we think in US election or European ways of elections, we will constantly get Iran wrong.

Anyway as I said earlier most peoples eyes are open and they are not fooled by smearing campaigns. A fair public trial would be the best way to settle this and restore confidence. However, seeing how so many years has passed by and illegal house arrest has continued, I am not too hopeful...

A public trial is not the right time for now. Society's well being and interest takes precedence over two political elites who put stability at risk for their own selfish reasons. Iranian "liberals" always cry fraud when they lose, but the system is fantastic when they win. When Ahmadenijad won both times, there were cries of fraud. When Rouhani won, the system was perfect. When Ahmadenijad was banned for running, "liberals" did not complain about unfairness. I put "liberals" in quotes, because they are not true liberals. They are just wanna western liberals, who somehow think that someone like Karoubi, Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Rouhani, and Nadeq Nouri are somehow reformists while someone like Ahmadenijad, who actually did a lot of actual REFORM isnt.

Does anyone know where I can find manifestos or concrete plans for Rouhani and Qalibaf, if they have them? Campaign rallies and speeches are also useful.

My bro Ghalibaf:
http://www.aparat.com/tag/انتخابات96-دکتر محمدباقر قالیباف

Here is his campaign ad:
http://www.aparat.com/v/Pz58t
 
It's funny that even in 96 reformist propagandist like Sadra mohaghegh spread news about Ahmadinejad which he does not support any candidate.
They are fearing from Ahmadinejad basket of vote till today.
secondly, Iran is not just fucking Tehran just come here to see small cities and rural areas.
 
Homajon:
I said a public trial, not international trial. Public trial by neutral Islamic Republic judges that is broadcast to the people where people can hear both sides of the argument. Mousavi and Karubi have already demanded this but it has been refused.

Khatami also asked for referendum after 1388 events, and it was refused too. If Ahmadinejad won by huge majority, why refuse a transparent referendum to put everything to rest? Think about it.

You say you are not in the heads of those people, yes true, but my point is these guys were not some low level officials, they were the highest ranking officials in Islamic Republic. You are so in favor of evidence, ok, provide evidence that they are working with foreign governments. There is zero evidence. If there was, they would be prosecuted and evidence would be presented to people.

For polls, that is not a strong argument. Polls predicted Clinton has 95% chance of winning, but did she win? Polls said Brexit wouldnt happen, did it not happen?

Many of those foreign polls had a small sample and were conducted approximately a month in advance of the elections. If you look a month before election in 2013, Qalibaf was clear frontrunner and Rouhani and Aref had 13% combined... Also, in one of those foreign polls in 2009 over 40% of contacted did not participate and 15% did not chose a candidate...however 85% of people turned out to vote, which means the polls could have easily misunderestimated Mousavi support.

Madali:
I already stated in this forum that Ahmadinejad being disqualified was stupid and they are afraid of him for exposing certain things. No one should be disqualified. Let the people decide who they want. I dont fully agree with Ahmadienjad and I dont believe he won in 88 but I respect some of the things he has done and he should be free to run as president and people should be free to vote for him.




Also, Madali, you say public trial would open wounds and renew conflicts? Really? You dont think the wounds already exists RIGHT NOW? You think people have forgotten 1388 events and everything is fine now?

Talking about wounds....
From hardliners side..... reformers and Mousavi supporters are labeled 'fetnegars', Ahmadinejad supporters are labeled 'enherafi', and all other critic are automatically labeled MKO terrorist or if they are lucky, they are just labeled Shahi. And all the rest 'good' people are 'enghelabi'...

On other side from reformer or critic side... everyone that shows any sympathy to the regime is either basiji or sandis-khor...

Point is, we have so much wounds already and we are so divided, more than I can ever remember.







It's funny that even in 96 reformist propagandist like Sadra mohaghegh spread news about Ahmadinejad which he does not support any candidate.
They are fearing from Ahmadinejad basket of vote till today.
secondly, Iran is not just fucking Tehran just come here to see small cities and rural areas.
Ahmadienajd does not support any candidate in 96 election. He stated it multiple times, most recently in a video that was posted just few days ago, watch it.
 
Ahmadienajd does not support any candidate in 96 election. He stated it multiple times, most recently in a video that was posted just few days ago, watch it.
I know that but I am saying why reformist suddenly become happy for that and start to spread ahmadinejad voice as much as they can.
the same guys claimed he does not have any popularity.

and even you got video from reformist propagandist
 
Some members believe a lot in polls, here are recent polls that show Rouhani in the lead even in run-off scenario for this election.


I know that but I am saying why reformist suddenly become happy for that and start to spread ahmadinejad voice as much as they can.
the same guys claimed he does not have any popularity.

and even you got video from reformist propagandist
The video is straight from Ahmadinejad and I found it on youtube.

Reformists are a huge camp and contain many different views and dont work under same goals all the time... Even I who voted for Mousavi do not consider myself reformist, I consider myself independent. I would have actually considered voting for Ahmadinejad in this election because he will expose a lot of things and Mashaei has said some good things.
 
Ghalibaf and Raisee trying so hard to copy Ahmadenijad, its pathetic. I'll still vote for Ghalibaf, but his attempt to be like Ahmadenijad is so sad. He's trying to come off as humble and man of the poor? Ahmadenijad had the looks, speaking style, clothing, everything, that made him appeal to that segment of the population.

Look at Raisee copying the Doctor's campaign...

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