ULFA urges Dhaka to 'stop crackdown’

[Skies]

The real question is brother whether China will risk a war with India for the benefit of Bangladesh or Bangladesh will risk a war for the benefit of
China?? ..In the end nobody wants to see their soldiers come home in body bags because they are fighting some one's war

Accounting to the post#61 of this thread China is interested for their benefits. Click: http://www.defence.pk/forums/bangla...-urges-dhaka-stop-crackdown-5.html#post582460

But, I know, China won't do anything like this, cos they r so cool, so don't worry. My joke(s) regarding war with India is IF/Hypothetical, just waste of times and not possible.

My hypothesis was to counter an Indian poster's simple claim that BD is surrounded by India in three sides. So, my point is Indian generals are not that naive to think BD in that line.

I also said these jokes for this reasons as they claim that - to counter them. But they took it seriously, may be this is their weakness!

 

[eastwatch]

I dont know from when did these east watch guy started living in fantasy world??His posts made sense earlier now look at what he is writing..

Consult a dictionary. Hypothesis is not fantasy. Keep your discussion in the line of hypothesis.

 

[eastwatch]

And about countering tactical BMs,yes we yet do not have SAMs to counter them.

I have read in some other forum that BD has procured or on the way to procure Turkish made mobile anti-missile units. The radars can follow about twenty targets and kill six of these targets simultaneously.

I understand that the targets are the attacking missiles. However, the range is only 32 km. It means when the missiles are within a range of 32 km, the anti-missiles will be activated.

 

[manishmaithani]

Today is Victory Day in India and bangladesh, so please do not fight today on 16th december.

 

[Contrarian]

Somewhere in this thread I started with a hypothetical warlike situation when there is an armed conflict between China and India in the NE. I said that without direct BD cooperation India will lose. I also said that if BD favours China, then Indian forces in the NE would be surrounded by China and BD, and would be annihilated by the assamese ULFA.

Allow me to elucidate here once again, how all your analysis's are generally ridiculous and how you dont know anything about ground realities.

ULFA is not a regular army. Even if somehow PLA is able to march into assam, and Bangladeshi army becomes strong enough to repulse Indian Army from its borders, ULFA would still not be able to attack Indian Army head on.

They are too small in number for that. They cannot even if they want to go for a conventional fight. All they can do is bomb public places. And after all that, their leadership is being targeted by India, their most potent group has surrendered.

Do know, that both Nepal and Bhutan provide routes to supply NE, apart from our own territory of siliguri, which Bangladesh cannot even threaten. Its a safe corridor till the time the Chinese are able to enter it or target it with arty.

And lastly, India does have a decent airlift capability which is going to increase MASSIVELY in the near future.

Against this background, it is certain that China will support BD in the sea also, because it is a Chinese war. Of course, it is all a hypothetical situation and no one in his right mind wants a war that shatters the lives of millions.

The only Navy IN would have to fight, if PLAN decides to fight in Bay of Bengal would be PLAN. BN is not a Navy which can even think of challenging IN.

And PLAN cannot fight IN in Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal. They would be meat, the same way IN would be meat if they try fighting PLAN anywhere near South China sea.

Both IN and PLAN are a long way off from projecting and enforcing and SUSTAINING power in distant seas.

My hypothesis was to counter an Indian poster's simple claim that BD is surrounded by India in three sides. So, my point is Indian generals are not that naive to think BD in that line. Rather, they would give more consideration to the geographic importance of BD, in which other than the military strength of India, it also needs BD cooperation to win over or resist a Chinese assault.

No, India does not need any kind of BD assistance in a skirmish with China.

By the way, I stick to the outcome of my analysis of the theoretical situation that I proposed, and would also like to say that India needs BD more than BD needs India in such a situation. This may be the reason that India is encouraging BD investments to its NE so that in a warlike situation, these capitalists would force the GoB to cooperate with India.

India ONLY needs BD to be a peaceful neighbour. Peaceful implies not dabbling in anti-India activities like supporting insurgents from NE(which your gov under BNP was doing). Should BD be peaceful, India and BD would be good partners-trade, policy and in numerous other areas. It would be a mutually beneficial relationship.

In no way is BD critical to India's border war with China or Pakistan.
Allow me to reiterate that your analysis is not worth the bandwidth you used to type it out.

 

[Contrarian]

If my memory serves me correctly,then there was an incident couple of years ago where Iranian Fast attack crafts were circling US ship.I may be wrong on this.

You are right. However if a Navy is at war, you shoot from a distance first without waiting for the FAC to come close.

In case of a declared war, IN would be the first in trying to identify and destroy FAC's from a long distance away.

I know about that,like MBDA MICA.And you probably forgot to add about CIWS.

MICA is an a2a missile if memory serves me correct. Im talking about Naval SAM's like Barak, RAM, etc.
I did mention Kashtan, its a CIWS.

Just destroying ports doesn't stop in flow of supply.For that one has to stand and block key entries leading to Bangladesh.
And about countering tactical BMs,yes we yet do not have SAMs to counter them.

No, destroying all ports stops the bulk of any country's imports. You need docking, unloading facilities to send and recieve goods which are available at ports. You destroy them and the volume which you can send or recieve becomes a trickle.

Private companies stop trading immediately once there is a threat. They would not risk their ships getting destroyed. After that you pay a very high premium if you want to recieve goods.

About sanction,it was on the context of India attacking first.Try to understand on what context I posted.
Its not about contributing men to UN and in return UN sends men to help.Since we have a good reputation on international arena,then there will be sympathy,if we are attacked first.Once again Understand the context.

Right.

Toxic and I were discussing about a hypothetical scenario.I had signed off from this thread,but you quoted me.

This thread is completely rotten.Last 5 to 6 pages,everyone's just throwing mud at each other.

I agree, i wanted to avoid it as well. But our dear friend eastwatch was making such ludicrous assumptions about military and strategy i could not stop myself from posting.

Eastwatch, atleast try and avoid talking about military and strategic aspects, your making a fool of yourself through your statements about these things.

 

[Contrarian]

I have read in some other forum that BD has procured or on the way to procure Turkish made mobile anti-missile units. The radars can follow about twenty targets and kill six of these targets simultaneously.

I understand that the targets are the attacking missiles. However, the range is only 32 km. It means when the missiles are within a range of 32 km, the anti-missiles will be activated.

Please go and understand the difference between a regular SAM and an ABM system.

 

[Novice09]

'Bangladesh backstabbed ULFA movement'

- The ULFA, which demands independence for the tea and oil-rich Assam, is biggest insurgent group, running a three-decade-old campaign that has killed some 30,000 people.

P.S: Please read readers' comment in this article.

one comment is mentioned below:

Look who is calling the kettle black....
By: Abhi | 11-Dec-2009

ULFA says they were backstabbed. I wonder how they justify this to themselves. The very people who have no problems in bombing and killing their own countrymen. Even if they think Indians are not their countrymen they routinely kill their own assamese people in these blasts and cause harm to the state. These people think they were backstabbed....look at yourself Mr. Hazarika you are not backstabbing you are murdering and that also in real.

 

[eastwatch]

You are right. However if a Navy is at war, you shoot from a distance first without waiting for the FAC to come close.

In case of a declared war, IN would be the first in trying to identify and destroy FAC's from a long distance away.

MICA is an a2a missile if memory serves me correct. Im talking about Naval SAM's like Barak, RAM, etc.
I did mention Kashtan, its a CIWS.

No, destroying all ports stops the bulk of any country's imports. You need docking, unloading facilities to send and recieve goods which are available at ports. You destroy them and the volume which you can send or recieve becomes a trickle.

Private companies stop trading immediately once there is a threat. They would not risk their ships getting destroyed. After that you pay a very high premium if you want to recieve goods.

Right.

Bay of Bengal is not a pond, it is a vast sea. You have to enforce a blockade with heavy naval muscle. You cannot just shootyour Brahmo missile at random. It will give you a bigger headache.
I agree, i wanted to avoid it as well. But our dear friend eastwatch was making such ludicrous assumptions about military and strategy i could not stop myself from posting.

Eastwatch, atleast try and avoid talking about military and strategic aspects, your making a fool of yourself through your statements about these things.

You are completely wrong and you do not have any idea what blockade means. You do not have the logistics to enforce one. Secondly, no shipping company will stop carrying goods. If you are not wrong in your naive assumption, then give me one example that a cargo shipping blockade has ever been successful.

Do not be boastful of your logistics. How many Brahmos can you build and how long it will take for the international community to react at your blockade? Do you understand that if you bomb one foreign ship, then the entire world will go against you? In a war, you are supposed to target only military installations. Without knowing basic things like this you are boasting about your Brahmos.

Can you stop foreign ships to come to our port? How, by just threatening? Even in wartime, private ships of foreign origin are spared from attack. Because, this type of cowardly attacks are seen as attacks on the foreign govts also. Almost all the ships that come to our ports carry foreign flags.

You target and sink one cargo ship, India will be set on fire. As for the shipping companies, they will just raise the shipping charge and will insure the ships heavily. But, they will not certainly stop their voyage. Learn before you boast.

By the way, do you think the Bay of Bengal is just a pond? India will never be able to block the shipping lanes. Do not come and boast with your military prowess. It will not make any dent to our survival. Rather, you will suffer. Military logistics are but only a part of a war machine. There are other factors that govern a war and its result.

About war, learn from Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Bangladesh. They won without logistics to say of. Their main logistics were human lives and bloods, of which we have plenty. We are not a meek nation although our country lacks a sophisticated military. However, today's BD is at least ten times more defended than it was before 1971 of Pakistan time.

My hypothesis was the role of BD if China attacks your NE. So, in such a case China will be helping us in the Bay if we side with it. I must repeat that a war is not only logistics. This is why the USA cannot win in Afgh and Iraq. This is why we won over Pakistan.

I stick to my previous proposition that with BD cooperation you may or may not win a war, but without our cooperation India will certainly lose the war. I think, all the Indians are for my neck because I have been talikng about BD's worth in a warlike situation and that India is vulnerable without BD's support.

This "BD's Support" part is not probably liked by the Indian posters, because they like to see us a week and meek nation and always depending upon the big DADA. But, your generals must be thinking in the same logical way that I am thinking. They are not stupids. They always prepare there army to face any hypothetical situation, that includes also the one I have raised here.

 

[toxic_pus]

...give me one example that a cargo shipping blockade has ever been successful.

Errr...Cuba, October 1962...rings a bell ?

As with the rest of your post.....

Added later:

As for the shipping companies, they will just raise the shipping charge and will insure the ships heavily. But, they will not certainly stop their voyage. Learn before you boast.

If insurance cost chips away profit margin, then they will gladly give the finger to you. A part of strategic blockade is indeed to increase shipping cost.

Now about logistics. First you say:

Do not be boastful of your logistics.

Implying that we do not have enough logistics to enforce a blockade against BD. Then you say, after citing some other conflicts:

I must repeat that a war is not only logistics.

You sure you keep track of what you write.

 

[idune]

Errr...Cuba, October 1962...rings a bell ?

As with the rest of your post.....

India is NO US and Bangladesh is no Cuba. Besides, Bangladesh is not a small island in the ocean. Bangladesh has land borders with Myanmar.

Indians has to realize india does not own ocean and does not have capability to do so.

 

[toxic_pus]

India is NO US and Bangladesh is no Cuba. Besides, Bangladesh is not a small island in the ocean.

He asked for an example. I gave one.

Bangladesh has land borders with Myanmar.

You mean the same country you were preparing to go to war with, just a few weeks earlier.

Indians has to realize india does not own ocean and does not have capability to do so.

If you say so

 

[praveen]

You are completely wrong and you do not have any idea what blockade means. You do not have the logistics to enforce one. Secondly, no shipping company will stop carrying goods. If you are not wrong in your naive assumption, then give me one example that a cargo shipping blockade has ever been successful.
Back it up with proof we blocaded karachi during Kargil before cry baby sharif went to baby sitter clinton


Do not be boastful of your logistics. How many Brahmos can you build and how long it will take for the international community to react at your blockade? Do you understand that if you bomb one foreign ship, then the entire world will go against you? In a war, you are supposed to target only military installations. Without knowing basic things like this you are boasting about your Brahmos.
Bloody big error1:Banking on the international commnity.In a war any port is a legal target because it can engage in aiding military
last time I counted they were 250,some 1600 can be oroduced in a matter of 7 months if necessary
Can you stop foreign ships to come to our port? How, by just threatening? Even in wartime, private ships of foreign origin are spared from attack. Because, this type of cowardly attacks are seen as attacks on the foreign govts also. Almost all the ships that come to our ports carry foreign flags.
Easy sink two frigates in the mouth of your port it is blocked
You target and sink one cargo ship, India will be set on fire. As for the shipping companies, they will just raise the shipping charge and will insure the ships heavily. But, they will not certainly stop their voyage. Learn before you boast
We are not BD,no one wants to meddle with a Titan except another Titan
By the way, do you think the Bay of Bengal is just a pond? India will never be able to block the shipping lanes. Do not come and boast with your military prowess. It will not make any dent to our survival. Rather, you will suffer. Military logistics are but only a part of a war machine. There are other factors that govern a war and its result.
You forgot the Andaman and Nicobar Islands naval base
About war, learn from Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Bangladesh. They won without logistics to say of. Their main logistics were human lives and bloods, of which we have plenty. We are not a meek nation although our country lacks a sophisticated military. However, today's BD is at least ten times more defended than it was before 1971 of Pakistan time.
No one is holding territory here its pure attrition warfare not one where you engage and hold territory.So what you said is horse-puckey
My hypothesis was the role of BD if China attacks your NE. So, in such a case China will be helping us in the Bay if we side with it. I must repeat that a war is not only logistics. This is why the USA cannot win in Afgh and Iraq. This is why we won over Pakistan.
Your hypothesis will be what it will be a pipe dream.The Himalayas and Tibet are severe geographical handicaps for the chinese.To aid BD logistically they have to cross Indian territory which they cant neither through IOR nor Tibet
I stick to my previous proposition that with BD cooperation you may or may not win a war, but without our cooperation India will certainly lose the war. I think, all the Indians are for my neck because I have been talikng about BD's worth in a warlike situation and that India is vulnerable without BD's support.
In case of a war with China in NE you will be with us or against us no inbetween postures.
This "BD's Support" part is not probably liked by the Indian posters, because they like to see us a week and meek nation and always depending upon the big DADA. But, your generals must be thinking in the same logical way that I am thinking. They are not stupids. They always prepare there army to face any hypothetical situation, that includes also the one I have raised here.
the only support BD can give is aiding us it is the only option left for BD

 

[eastwatch]

Errr...Cuba, October 1962...rings a bell ?

As with the rest of your post.....

If insurance cost chips away profit margin, then they will gladly give the finger to you. A part of strategic blockade is indeed to increase shipping cost.

Now about logistics. First you say:

Implying that we do not have enough logistics to enforce a blockade against BD. Then you say, after citing some other conflicts:

You sure you keep track of what you write.

I knew Indians will come out with the example of Cuba. But, that was a cold war era. USA and Soviet Unions were at loggerhead on every issue of the world. USSR had set up nuclear capable missiles in cuba that could have destroyed one third of the US population within 5 minutes of a launching.

The blockade was only against the intruasion of Russine cargo ships that could carry atomic bombs or missiles. Even then, the world had to be soundly convinced about the necessity of that blockade. So, what is the resemblance with a probable shodown in the Bay of Bengal that you want to block all the BD cargoes? How can you convince the world that it is needed?

Moreover, the hypothesis was BD support of a China-India war and not a duel between BD and india. As I said before, you do not want to hear of a situation when your big military will have little leverage.

 

[Contrarian]

You are completely wrong and you do not have any idea what blockade means. You do not have the logistics to enforce one. Secondly, no shipping company will stop carrying goods. If you are not wrong in your naive assumption, then give me one example that a cargo shipping blockade has ever been successful.

Examples given.

Do not be boastful of your logistics. How many Brahmos can you build and how long it will take for the international community to react at your blockade? Do you understand that if you bomb one foreign ship, then the entire world will go against you? In a war, you are supposed to target only military installations. Without knowing basic things like this you are boasting about your Brahmos.

Why are you stuck on BrahMos? There are a dozen other missiles in Indian inventory, not the least of which are the Prithvi/Agni series of tactical BM's which can be very effectively used to bomb ports.

Can you stop foreign ships to come to our port? How, by just threatening? Even in wartime, private ships of foreign origin are spared from attack. Because, this type of cowardly attacks are seen as attacks on the foreign govts also. Almost all the ships that come to our ports carry foreign flags.

Yes you can. You give a fair warning to all ships operating in the region not to enter Bangladeshi ports. If they do, they do so at their own risk. After that you sink some vessels at the mouth of the port.

You target and sink one cargo ship, India will be set on fire. As for the shipping companies, they will just raise the shipping charge and will insure the ships heavily. But, they will not certainly stop their voyage. Learn before you boast.

One of the main objectives of any blockade is to stop the majority of materiel flow and tremendously raise the cost of the materiel flow that you cant stop.

The shipping premiums will be raised by a huge margin. Whatever BD wishes to get will be available in only minute quantities and at ridiculous prices.

By the way, do you think the Bay of Bengal is just a pond? India will never be able to block the shipping lanes. Do not come and boast with your military prowess. It will not make any dent to our survival. Rather, you will suffer. Military logistics are but only a part of a war machine. There are other factors that govern a war and its result.

Well, considering what Bangladesh brings to the table in a military conflict, it is a pond. Its a question of bombing BD ports and stopping flow there, not policing the entire Bay Of Bengal.
There is a reason why Pakistan wanted to build Gwadar, and the threat of blockade at Karachi port played no small amount in that calculation.

About war, learn from Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam and Bangladesh. They won without logistics to say of. Their main logistics were human lives and bloods, of which we have plenty. We are not a meek nation although our country lacks a sophisticated military. However, today's BD is at least ten times more defended than it was before 1971 of Pakistan time.

No one is conqoring Bangladesh. Its about destroying the military machinery of Bangladesh, its ports, etc in war. Its not about land.

My hypothesis was the role of BD if China attacks your NE. So, in such a case China will be helping us in the Bay if we side with it. I must repeat that a war is not only logistics. This is why the USA cannot win in Afgh and Iraq. This is why we won over Pakistan.

Please, differentiate between the war objectives. India would not want to capture land. Its about destroying BD's ability to fight-ie military assets.

I stick to my previous proposition that with BD cooperation you may or may not win a war, but without our cooperation India will certainly lose the war. I think, all the Indians are for my neck because I have been talikng about BD's worth in a warlike situation and that India is vulnerable without BD's support.

No its not. BD's support is not crucial at all in India's war with China. Rest assured, you give too much importance to your country in an Indo-China war.

This "BD's Support" part is not probably liked by the Indian posters, because they like to see us a week and meek nation and always depending upon the big DADA. But, your generals must be thinking in the same logical way that I am thinking. They are not stupids. They always prepare there army to face any hypothetical situation, that includes also the one I have raised here.

Ofcourse, its their job to think of contingencies. That doesnt change ground realities. BD supporting or not supporting India does not make a significant difference in an Indo-China skirmish. It raises the cost of war at max, doesnt change the outcome at all.

Your entire premise of defense apparently rests of International pressure on India to stop the blockade or attack on BD. You learn from history, depending on others in a wartime is the biggest folly that a country can make. I wont even bother going into the international clout India wields vis-a-vis Bangladesh.

You seem to be desperate to show that India needs BD badly. Its not true. While a healthy mutually beneficial relationship is always desired, it is not critical. I am not dismissing BD as an unimportant country in India's perspective. But that is for different reasons. Incase of a border war with China, BD is least relevant.