Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[Falcon29]

Does Trump really want to pull the US troops out? Yes.

Will the rest of American administration and state institutions allow for that? We will see, as they vehemently against this proposal or move. They want US troops around Israel or close to Israel to give them huge leverage over neighbors. Doesn't matter if Syrian regime or Syrian opposition or any other future players. Trump does not like that idea and he received great backlash back earlier when he proposed it. So seems he was looking for opportunity to withdraw troops and Turkish Operation rumors granted him that.

ISIS is no longer a major threat. Russian Air Force operates in Syria as well, US Air Force will resume operating in future if needed. So the worry isn't about that. More like Israel believes US presence there and support of Kurds is a way to influence future of Syria by putting pressure on any sides in the near future to advance a political process the way they would like. With US troop withdrawal, regime and allies will have upper hand in this political process. While Turks would face a Kurdish threat on their border.

Thus many officials, analysts and other pundits have come out hard against this. Mostly because they want Israel to be in a good offensive position in the region. Trump will reverse that effort if he can somehow implement this troop withdrawal. And he definitely knows and is bothered by this Israeli-firster phenomena taking precedent over his America first agenda.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075528854402256896

ASSAd 2011... When out of nowhere the keys of few jails got "Lost"...

Wonder though what triggered this decision,surely not "ISIS's defeat",which is far from being defeated. If there was no deal with all parties involved,Trump just opened the way for more Iranian/Russian influence and control in Syria and just abandoned its ally. The YPG might try to gain Assad's support against the planned Turkish operation. The most pissed off about this decision might well be the Israelis and the Saudis.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Wonder though what triggered this decision,surely not "ISIS's defeat",which is far from being defeated. If there was no deal with all parties involved,Trump just opened the way for more Iranian/Russian influence and control in Syria and just abandoned its ally. The YPG might try to gain Assad's support against the planned Turkish operation. The most pissed off about this decision might well be the Israelis and the Saudis.

It's a bit confusing, I agree. In the coming days/Months we may have a better picture of it.
But Here my 2cents on Why The US/Trump acted as such.

ISIS defeat was already announced in the past by Trump, it isn't the first time, but this time, we've got all the Vids/Speechs and Allies surprise coming with it... That gave us the impression that is indeed the "right moment" That yes, US has done the job and will go back home. (at least on paper)

First, We need to see what is happening in the US, Trump is under scrutiny since the last events, Where nothing he wished to do get done, Whatever it's his travel ban/The Wall/China/Tariffs etc... So, I believe such move may "help" in switching his image, giving him a little more "credit" with the coming of Christmas and th End of his 2 years reign...

Then you have the regional reality in Syria, Where TR and RU came to an arrangement in Idlib, That gave TR more momentum aka having the Back door at peace. TR got his own refugee problems, where discontent arise among the population, that on it's own not problematic but it's part of Erdogan way to keep his image strong by answering to the people wishes. So, you have a wish to push to secure her border, and in the same way getting ride of PKK And making place for the return of Syrians. finding a Solution.

Some, here give the hypothesis that those PACs deal is what pushed Trump to let go... But it isn't... it's just part of a whole for a gain of influence later on by counter balancing RU influence.

So,now why the US betray YPG for TR? Well, some seems to find it abnormal/strange...but it isn't... never was... or maybe they never read US history... "Use what you can till you get better". YPG alike groups was THE only alternative in East Syria back in those days, when the US decided to fight against ISIS... So they used them... But in the End they are a Militia meant to fight against another one... Simple as That...now that ISIS threat is over...the US need to think in the long term to KEEP their influence in Syria... What is the better way than siding with a State actor who happen to be a NATO ally and a Direct Actor in Syria
There is no other choices...none...

Now come the Q of what will happen to RU/IR influence if TR take the east? Well, as we saw before in Astana Summit, TR had the ability to "punch the table"... against RU/IR... Added to that, "MAybe" A deal btw US-TR was made btw the two to respect that "influence boundary of RU/IR" if TR happen to march on the East ... and that PAC deal was maybe part of it, Who knows.

As for Q about what if YPG ask ASSAd support? well it's an interesting one, afterall their brothers in Afrin did so...so what could block them to do the same... I believe the US "sponsor" could be that "blocker".
YPG is playing with fire if she ask ASSad's help... First she will lose what international image/support left she get from lambda guys and Secondly Her source of income...Her sponsor, the US.
Now, ASSad may have that chance and say "Ok let's go"... The thing is... Without RU, he wouldn't... because he can't...
I don't see RU getting in, simply because the US would still be present in the East with TR and Siding PUBLICLY against TR isn't the move either... Even under Afrin op... she never made it public... they were no direct support. (only small numbers of unofficial militia)
Added to that, you've got RU internal problems... Even Her wish to leave Syria... EVEN Iran wish it to end... That's why TR intervention, could be the answer and that's also why we've got those recent talk of the new "Constitution" going on...

Well it's just short/brief piece of mind...

 

[Taskforce]

Visuals that US is leaving

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075727461126594560

 

[Vergennes]

@TheMightyBender

France (vaguely) confirmed its troops would remain in Syria and that it would still keep its military engagements in Syria. (Wonder in what forms)

The UK seems to be on the same line. What's interesting is that this statement was not made by the minister of defence or foreign affairs,but by the minister of European affairs,wonder if there's something behind that or not. @Bismarck

According to local sources,the US but also other coalition forces are moving away from the Turkish border and are heading south of the M4 motorway,so outisde of the planned Turkish's offensive areas of operations.

 

[CAN_TR]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075740156387151872

 

[Fenasi Kerim]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1075740156387151872

Wait hevals I thought Assad was anti demokrasi, didn't they sell that to the western feminists lol.

This is a good message to all the idiots saying we should cooperate with Assad.

And these PKK scums are funny, they are making excuses already for there coming defeat lol saying Turkey should attack without airforce for a fair fight LOL they didn't say that when the US turned Raqqa into rubble from the air.

 

[Nein]

Wait hevals I thought Assad was anti demokrasi, didn't they sell that to the western feminists lol.

This is a good message to all the idiots saying we should cooperate with Assad.

And these PKK scums are funny, they are making excuses already for there coming defeat lol saying Turkey should attack without airforce for a fair fight LOL they didn't say that when the US turned Raqqa into rubble from the air.

Us air support saved their asses against isis lmaoooo

 

[Agha Sher]

Rumours about the scope of the upcoming operation: US forces will withdraw all the way South of the M4 Highway, leaving all the area North of M4 to Turkey.

 

[Vergennes]

Do you guys believe the US let the way open to Turkey in Northern Syria against the YPG in exchange of Turkey continuing the fight against ISIS in Deir ezzor and containing Iran's influence east of the Euphrate ? @HannibalBarca

Could be reasons among many others.

 

[CAN_TR]

Do you guys believe the US let the way open to Turkey in Northern Syria against the YPG in exchange of Turkey continuing the fight against ISIS in Deir ezzor and containing Iran's influence east of the Euphrate ? @HannibalBarca

Could be reasons among many others.

Why should Turkey fight in Deir ezzor?

Assad, SDF and the Coalition can deal with them.
There is just a small pocket of ISIS fighters let's go finish it already, since month no progress.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Do you guys believe the US let the way open to Turkey in Northern Syria against the YPG in exchange of Turkey continuing the fight against ISIS in Deir ezzor and containing Iran's influence east of the Euphrate ? @HannibalBarca

Could be reasons among many others.

We still don't know the scope of TR op. Is it only the Northern part or all of the East.

But I believe there is an understanding btw TR and the US that RU/IR influence in those incoming TR sphere of influence shall be limited. And my assumption is that TR do agree with that and maybe maybe...US retreat and that PAC deal is part of that understanding.

Now, Will TR limit herself to only the North? I don't think so in the long term... Otherwise all this "Let's go back home" situation is stupid... Maybe no more "Armed OP" but a bilateral compromise of "rule".

As for ISIS, they are back to the old ways... Hit and Run, they don't have the "power" to project as they did before.

 

[TheMightyBender]

Do you guys believe the US let the way open to Turkey in Northern Syria against the YPG in exchange of Turkey continuing the fight against ISIS in Deir ezzor and containing Iran's influence east of the Euphrate ? @HannibalBarca

Could be reasons among many others.

Let's not kid ourselves, there is no ISIS left to fight. At least not in non-guerilla form. Deir ezzor was just left as an excuse for the coalition to stay in Syria. Not to mention that I don't even think Turkey will be able to contain areas that far away from her borders, those will be occupied by Iran/Russia.

In my opinion the deal included buying the patriots and preventing the shia corridor. This is also why Turkey was concentrating so much on Sinjar (aka the Iraqi portion of the shia corridor).

 

[HannibalBarca]

Let's not kid ourselves, there is no ISIS left to fight. At least not in non-guerilla form. Deir ezzor was just left as an excuse for the coalition to stay in Syria. Not to mention that I don't even think Turkey will be able to contain areas that far away from her borders, those will be occupied by Iran/Russia.

In my opinion the deal included buying the patriots and preventing the shia corridor. This is also why Turkey was concentrating so much on Sinjar (aka the Iraqi portion of the shia corridor).

I don't think Deir ezzor region will be "given" to IR/RU, What we could get is a mutual "rule" of the east, btw TR and the US.
That will pave the way to stability/reconstruction etc.

 

[Saddam Hussein]

Maybe YPG can make a deal with Assad and return the north under SAA control now

Let's not kid ourselves, there is no ISIS left to fight. At least not in non-guerilla form. Deir ezzor was just left as an excuse for the coalition to stay in Syria. Not to mention that I don't even think Turkey will be able to contain areas that far away from her borders, those will be occupied by Iran/Russia.

In my opinion the deal included buying the patriots and preventing the shia corridor. This is also why Turkey was concentrating so much on Sinjar (aka the Iraqi portion of the shia corridor).

How is Sinjar needed for a shia corridor when Iraq shares a long border with Syria