Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[KediKesenFare3]

What if Mr. Erdoğan is just bluffing and his actual goal is to get Münbiç handed over?

 

[Exxxe]

What if Mr. Erdoğan is just bluffing and his actual goal is to get Münbiç handed over?

Unlikely since that would damage his image after all those threats no one would take him seriously

Turkey won't launch an all out attack it will be limited and it will hit critical spots
Destroying the YPG supply and unity also its link to iraq hopefully

The US response has been nothing but a PR save face demo which means this OP is approved by the US or they now realize no option left but to stand down

To simply put it next few days turkey will either make it or break it no excuses or BS left

 

[rajvoSa]

What if Mr. Erdoğan is just bluffing and his actual goal is to get Münbiç handed over?

It would be great too. Manbij has strategic value, it would open other posibilities down the roud. Not just re YPG, but re regime too. Also it would hemper YPG movment between East and Aleppo province. Also, population in Manbij would be friendly by large margine, would be great for fruther deepening ties with arab tribes in the region and city is in good shape by Syrian standards, no need for large investments and rebulding.

One more thing I want to add, Erdogan does makes statmenst, but he's not pulling them from his ***. Its coordinated between him and the rest of his cabinet and the army and inteligence. Like every strategic msg should be. Same thing was with Khashoggi crisis, coordination was remarkable, masterful strategy by Turkey. Main reason why that incident wasnt yestredays news is turkish mqasterful strategy, and hate him or love him, one must respect his character..l. I mean, Saudis were prepoaired to pour bilions to Erdogans lap, he fucking stopped em in mid sentence asking em are you looking to bribe me? I mean... hats of... he didnt just fucked up MBS - MBZ multiple bilion worth of PR campaigns and shit, turn against them fucking Senate and Congress, including almost all Republicans, made em in their eyes unrealible, dengerous partner.. and in same time made many in US to again look to Turkey as that muslim country as a lincpin to their ME strategy. I mean, no one in that region has capability, means, and strong enough army to confront, contain Iran and Russia, of course with US backing. Of course, with certain price, like making Syria turkish zone of influence, conecting oil fileds with Turkey, economicly tie those part of Syria with Turkey... win-wwin for everyone, Turkey, Syrians, US... let Assad keep Latakia, even Damascus... the rest, implement some cross between Nporth Cipriot model and South Corea.
Aleppo city would be great to have, tho...

 

[Vergennes]

It will be over till Christmas. Unlike Afrins rigid and tough topography these areas are way more favorible for the attacker force. Remeber ISIS offensive against YPG, they steamrolled em in metter of weeks until US intervention put the stop on the offensive in Kobane

YPG might probably put up more resistance given Turkey (and its allies) are planning to attack them at the heart of their "Rojava". Wonder though what the US has to say about any hypothetical Turkish offensive,if there was some secret agreement behind the scenes,how things will be coordinated so US and other forces present in the area will not be targeted.

 

[rajvoSa]

YPG might probably put up more resistance given Turkey (and its allies) are planning to attack them at the heart of their "Rojava". Wonder though what the US has to say about any hypothetical Turkish offensive,if there was some secret agreement behind the scenes,how things will be coordinated so US and other forces present in the area will not be targeted.

Its hart of Rojava in their pamflets. Afrin was their most powerful stronghold. They are operating in Afrin since 80s by the grace of Hafez Assad, some ppl dont know how deep is conncetion betwen Assads Baath regime and YPG, Hafez regime was one of their main backers, regime activly participated in formation of YPG, train their fighters, provided weapons, money, and gave them pritty much free reign in Afrin region for recrutment, Apo was hiding in Afrin for some time. Some were sent to camps in Lebanon for training with baath leaning palestinian offshots.
In Afrin they were the most entrecnxhed in the local population then anywhere else in Syria.

As for Hasaka and other regions Les so.. during prottests in Qamisli and fruthetr north, predominat flags were those of FSA. Big number of Kurds north joined rebel brigades, many of them with conservative flavor, like Ahrar al Sham, shit, when ISIS came to the region, they had no problem recruting Kurds from the area. Little of it is known, but main push, the guys who led that offensive against YPG position and later on Kobani, many of them were Kurds. Even ciommander who led the battle was a Kurd. Battalions who entered Kobani first and took almost half of the city in few hours were majority kurdish. Only later, after US intervention, ISIS sent others, Chechens and the rest. Western media has very monolitic potrait of Kurds, man... PKK is a fringe gruop, theitr ideology is on the fringe... YPG is the only actor in Syria beside the regime who uses forceful recruitment. Why, if they are so popular and loved? All rebel gruops operate on volontery prinipal

Like other ppl in ME, they are not monolith. They are not less religous then Arabs for exmpl. But by painting entire ppl with a brush of PKK ideology, you got many misinformed ppl thinkiong all Kurds are some marxist types, socialists. lol. Furst Iraqi jihadi gruop was Ansar al Islam, a kurdish gruop. Still exist. They have a battaklion in Idlib, very capable, their infiltration ops never end well for the regime. I think les then 2 months ago, they overun regime outpost in latakia at dawn, 5 minutes clip, 70 dead... one of the most impressive work Iv seen, regime soldiers never knew what hit them, nor from where...

Who knows. If there is somekind of understanding, well... we certanly will not found out about it soon. Maybe some years later. Even with out something like that leaking out, YPG-US relations are deatoriating, you can sense it by the way YPG propqaganda chanels are operatring, pushing some theories, they are not big fan of Jeffries. Which I get, he was for long ambasador in Turkey and he knows Turks and PKK very well. They cant feed this guy BS like they did with McGurk. He knows what they are very well. This all is McGurks **** up, he fucked up in Syria, he did it in Iraq too. This guy needs to be fired, he got ouplayed so many times and locked the US in a alliance that has no vialibility except if US is planing to stay there indefinetly and defend their little neostalinist protostate. And in process **** up relationship with a NATO ally who is kinda first line of defence forsoutheastern mediterian.

 

[kartal1]

Artillery shelling over Zor Magar.

F4 fighter jets flying over the border areas.

Violent clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish units on the axis of the village of Harbul, south of the town of Mar'a north of Aleppo.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073700771793956864

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073641093948948480

 

[rajvoSa]

so, its kicking off. well, saturday tomorow, may as well indulge my insomnia and let it be

 

[era_shield]

It will be over till Christmas. Unlike Afrins rigid and tough topography these areas are way more favorible for the attacker force. Remeber ISIS offensive against YPG, they steamrolled em in metter of weeks until US intervention put the stop on the offensive in Kobane

I don't see how this is possible. The logistics necessary for the operation won't even be finished for another week at least. Also, YPG can still slow the operation down in urban warfare, not to mention they will probably try to open a front in Afrin to ease pressure (which won't be effective but it will satisfy these degenerates' thirst for blood), and Assad might even help by launching a real or diversionary major assault in Idlib or elsewhere. YPG recently increased pace of ops against remaining ISIS pocket in DeZ. If ISIS follows its puppetmaster's (Assad's) directions, they will refrain from counterattacking after YPG moves its forces back to the Turkish border to reinforce.

And that's only the tip of the iceberg - Russia and Iran and maybe even SA could interfere too. A lot can happen here.

The whole thing doesn't add up to me. The only thing that makes sense is if US somehow convinced YPG to withdraw from Manbij area.

 

[rajvoSa]

large number of TFSA are mobilized in the area of contact to prevent any YPG incursions on thise fronts.

Depends how deep TSK plans to go. I dont think it will be to deep.
Well, they didnt really excell in urban warfare in Afrin towns. Those are small towns.

I may be wrong as I said. We are just exchanging opinionas. I cant see how YPG can cause major problems for TSK in this terrain after what heppened in Afrin. And yeah, they tried to downplayed it, like this was the plan, bla, bla, bla... sorry, you were saying Afrin will be Turkish Vietnam, you sent units from as far as Sinjar, foreign fighters too, shia militia members, bunkers, compaunds, 1000s of mines, and still... lost pritty quicly and cleanly. TSK and FSA were dictating the tempo from, the begining, they said it will be 3 phases, no secret, firts we will do this, then this, then finish them in the third. YPG knew the gameplan, and still...

If they are smart they will fall back to Qamishli... and beg Americans for somekind of deal with Turkey. I think TSK are praying for them to be gun ho, sent as many reinforcmednts of their best trained units... so that they can burry them in those funny tranches... Afrin too was partly a mouse trap, TSK wanted that YPG brings as many reinforments as they can, then the trap shuts. I think they think the same now, too.

 

[striver44]

 

[Taskforce]

Still no major action although Erdogan said operations would start in two days.

 

[Taskforce]

I have seen some movement of M60 tanks, however not many. I agree, it is odd that we haven't seen more military movement.

Current build up is not enough for a large scale operation according to a military source.

 

[Agha Sher]

Come on Erdogan, get those tanks rolling!

 

[Exxxe]

Come on Erdogan, get those tanks rolling!

Actually I hope they take their time and prepare well

The last two ops you lost an average of 60 men and more but now you are attacking a 30,000 force equipped with tons of US made weapons on a 450 km border Turkey will be lucky if it lost no more than a 1000 men by the time it's over ( even if the attack is limited and not an all out incursion that won't stop the SDF and YPG from throwing everything at you )

It will be bloody ugly and God knows how many soldiers will die but it will be alot no matter the upper hand you have this is 10 times the branch and Euphrates operations combined

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1073975939955085316