The refugee crisis in Europe is not that big of deal nowadays, since most countries in the path of migration already took/build measures to ensure that their borders limit to a max any "wave"... The only one who gonna pay is Greece... But tbh... Greece "misfortune" is less important for Europe... they don't really care as long as THEY stay safe from it...
Europe will not take part in Syria... Since TR misfortune is ALSO what some EU countries want...
As for TR and the Syrian issue... We also have to be clear... As long as TR sees RU as a "viable" partner... Then they will be no change... TR will be forced by RU to "speak"... therefore keeping the same "state" that we are in today...
Tbh... Whatever TR strategy... she will be alone in it... So the Answer is simple... Either TR get in line, like those small/powerless countries around... OR TR finally say "F*ck you all and your sh*t... I'm f*cking doing whatever I want and take whatever sh*t I want"... Like your forefathers in a way...
I don’t think that europe is safe from refugees maybe hungary who has iron border or poland and other eastern eu states but we all know they won’t go there instead their destination is top 4 eu economies:germany france italy and spain
Of course greece will feel first pressure cause they border turkey but since current government is right wing they won’t tolerate refugees staying in greece for too long most likely greek army would “assist”
refugees in transfering them to italy next door or using the balkan route
As for turkey and assad i will say this
This bastard needs to pay heavily but we have to see things now with realpolitik view
Turkish existential threat is pkk not assad
I have no problem if TAF decides to kill the dog because he deserves it after everything he has done to innocent syrians
This is excellent opportunity for peace spring 2.0
In idlib either turkey needs to fight or should withdraw putting in danger thousands of turkish soldiers’ live without engaging assad is stupid decision
Syrians anyway think turks betrayed so making a PR stunt by parking tanks inside idlib region is yet again stupid decision
If it is made a decision to fight then first they should save soldiers from besieged posts then bomb the shit out of assad troops
Problem are potential refugees i have a feeling major protests could erupt inside turkey(I understand anger of ordinary people) but this protests can easily be hijacked and turned against turkey that’s why opposition parties should put state interests above their party ones
Theoretically refugees should provoke only short term instability but everything could happen in turkey especially if government reacts soft without launching major ops in northern syria or idlib