Why does Iran oppose the Zangezur corridor?
- Iran has been under blockade for years. The sanctions imposed by the US, Europe and Israel have severely affected the Iranian economy.
Today, Tehran's access to the world is provided through Armenia. On the other hand, Iran and Armenia have been in close cooperation for years.
In the 1990s, during the First Karabakh War, Iran consistently supported the Armenians. One of the reasons for this is the Azerbaijani Turkish presence in Iran.
Because the Tehran regime sees the nationalization of Azerbaijani Turks as a national threat. Therefore, it sees Azerbaijan's success and mobility in the region as a threat to itself.
Azerbaijan's close relations with Turkiye and Israel seem to be an additional threat for Iran. In this respect, the idea of opening the Zangezur corridor after the Second Karabakh War, which lasted 44 days, is absolutely unacceptable to Iran.
Because if the Zangezur corridor is opened, Iran's political and economic importance in the region will decrease.
A global project will be implemented, starting from China to Central Asia, then to Azerbaijan via the Caspian Sea, then to Turkiye via the Zangezur Corridor and from there to Europe. In this case, Iran is left out of these projects.
On the other hand, the Iranian regime is aware of Armenia's weak position and fears that in the future Azerbaijan and Turkiye will annex the Zangezur corridor in exchange for military action or money. As a result, It carries concerns that the state border between Iran and Armenia will completely disappear.
Why did the Iranian president, in a telephone conversation with Nikol Pashinyan, reject the Zangezur corridor and say that he would not allow the political geography of the region to be changed? What does it mean for the Iranian side to make such a statement despite the absence of such a goal?
- It means that Iran will react sharply to any change in the political geography of the region. It is a message about the Iranian army is ready for war and can intervene at any time.
I don't think that the Iranian army will enter Azerbaijani territory, but the Azerbaijani or Turkish army that will enter Zangezur may face not only the Armenian army but also the Iranian army.
Moreover, not only the Iranian army but also the armies of other countries supporting Armenia may fight against Azerbaijan in Zangezur.
Depending on the course of events, military operations may continue on the territory of Armenia, Azerbaijan or Iran.
Azerbaijan will not be alone on the ground here. In the first hours, the Turkish and Pakistani armies will be on the battlefield.
Later, the US, Israel and other Western armies that can support Azerbaijan and want to widen the front against Iran may also launch their military presence in the region.
This would mean a regional or even world war. The war in Zangezur could pave the way for military operations by the international coalition against Iran.
Is the rapprochement between Israel and Azerbaijan the reason for Tehran's growing fears towards Azerbaijan?
- Iran has suspicions and fears about Azerbaijan and this policy has been going on for years. First of all, there is the issue of nearly 40 million Azerbaijani Turks living in Iran. This is a serious factor for Iran.
40 million people do not have their national rights recognized; there are no secondary schools, universities, newspapers and magazines in the Azerbaijani language in Iran today.
Occasional protests by Azerbaijani Turks cause serious concerns within Iran. In the future plans of foreign powers that want to divide Iran, there is also the factor of following Azerbaijani Turks and their opposition to the Tehran regime.
The 40 million Turks living there are a much more serious and powerful force than any other people living in Iran.
Israeli-Azerbaijani relations are just a pretext. Because these relations do not pose a threat to Tehran. Moreover, Azerbaijan's relations with Israel are not against Iran or any third country.
Today, Israel-Turkiye relations are not at the desired level. However, Turkiye has never expressed any concern about Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel. Because Turkiye and Azerbaijan are brotherly countries and there is trust between the parties.
But it is not possible to think of Iran-Azerbaijan relations in this way. Because Iran has always seen Azerbaijan as a source of danger. In general, the regime in Tehran considers all countries that are not on its side as a real threat to itself. The problem is in Tehran's way of thinking.
What is Turkiye's role in the establishment of the Zangezur corridor? Is it possible that the disagreement between Ankara and Tehran on this issue could escalate into a military conflict?
- Turkiye is an important factor in the South Caucasus today. First of all, it should be noted that Azerbaijan and Turkiye are one nation, two states.
It is very difficult to find similar relations in the world. After the 44-day Second Karabakh War, Turkiye-Azerbaijan relations continue as one state.
Today, all steps taken by Azerbaijan are supported by Turkiye. From this perspective, the Zangezur corridor is also in line with Turkiye's national interests.
Because this corridor will provide a land route between the main territories of Azerbaijan and Turkiye. Another name of this corridor is the Turkish Gate. Because through the Zangezur Corridor, the Central Asian region will also be gain trade corridor to Turkiye. This will further strengthen the economic, political and spiritual unity of the Turkic states.
There is always a high possibility that Turkiyey and Iran will confront each other over the Zangezur corridor. Because if Iran opposes this corridor and attacks Azerbaijan, it will also see Turkiye against it.
Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sent a clear message to his Iranian counterparts on this issue.
They understand this very well in Iran. Therefore, I do not think that the Iranian army will attack Azerbaijani territory. However, the Iranian army will take part in the military operations against the Azerbaijani army that will enter Zangezur, and the Tehran regime will say that it is doing so in order to "protect the territorial integrity of Armenia". We are already hearing this from Iranian officials.
Is the Zangezur Corridor related to the recent military developments on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border?
- No, it is not. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor was agreed as part of the Russia-Armenia-Azerbaijan trilateral agreement of 10 November 2020, and Armenia accepted it.
According to this agreement, if the Azerbaijani side provides the Lachin Corridor between Armenia and Karabakh, then the Armenian side must ensure the land connection with the main territories of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan.
However, Armenia does not want to fulfil its obligations in this regard and wants to withdraw from the agreement under various pretexts.
This is evident in the provocations of the Armenian side both in the diplomatic sphere and on the state border.
Unfortunately, peace talks took place between Armenia and Azerbaijan at different times in the last 3 years, and certain agreements were reached. However, today Armenia is destroying everything with its provocative steps, trying to aggravate the situation and launching attacks on Azerbaijani military positions.
What is Russia's position in the Zangezur Corridor and who does Moscow support between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
- Russia is only interested in maintaining the status quo in the region. It is not in Moscow's interest to achieve a lasting peace between the parties. The longer the conflict lasts, the greater Russia's ability to influence both Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Russia does not have a specific position on the Zangezur Corridor. This is because this corridor does not benefit Moscow in any way. On the contrary, this corridor will lead to the strengthening of Azerbaijan and Turkiye in the region and will reduce Russia's influence in the region.
But there are some processes that Russia cannot prevent. Therefore, trying to gain at least some benefit, Russia wants the Russian army to control the Zangezur corridor and thus gain some benefit.
Today Russia's position is unclear. Who to support between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a priority for Moscow. Russia does not support anyone, it only takes steps in line with its own interests.
Sometimes it makes political moves in favor of Azerbaijan, sometimes in favor of Armenia. Russia thinks big and wants to have a say in the South Caucasus for many years to come.
Today, Russia does not covet any territory in Karabakh. Moscow wants more, which means that it intends to retain control of the region as a whole.
However, I do not think that Russia, tired of the war in Ukraine in recent years, can stay in the South Caucasus for long. Seeing this, the USA and Iran intend to increase their activities in the zone.
What are the expected scenarios for this political tension?
Will it lead to a regional war? Or will the issue end with the reconciliation of Turkiye, Russia and Iran?
- Zangezur Corridor is not only on the agenda of Azerbaijan and Turkiye. This corridor has attracted the attention of great powers. Because the opening of this corridor will directly affect the course of the global economy. Even China is an interesting party in this regard.
It is not possible for all parties to be satisfied with the opening of the Zangezur Corridor. Therefore, some conflicts are expected. We still see contradictions in the political and diplomatic sphere. If diplomatic options are exhausted, weapons will start talking.
Of course, not only Armenia and Azerbaijan will fight in this war. Armenia has no power to fight today. The Azerbaijani army can capture not only the Zangezur Corridor, but the whole of Armenia in a couple week.
Regional powers will also enter the conflict here. What is important is the active preparation of the Iranian army today. Iran's intervention will also pave the way for world powers to intervene militarily in the region. Armenia will suffer the most here.
Because active military operations will be carried out on the territory of the Republic of Armenia. Armenia could become a second Ukraine, even worst. What is happening in Ukraine today, the clash of world powers can continue in Armenia.
However, if Russia, Iran and Turkiye can agree on the Zangezur corridor, this problem can be solved with less losses. However, here too, the attitude of the Armenian authorities will be the key factor.
Because today Nikol Pashinyan is a person who depends on the United States for his political will. The only way is to remove Nikol Pashinyan from power. Only then can the Turkiye-Russia-Iran agreement yield results.
Otherwise, conflict is inevitable.* (my edit:This possible conflict can also serves US interests the most)
*
-Dr.Ahmet Şairoğlu (Şairoğlu is a journalist and international relations expert at Ulusalkanal. Ulusalkanal is a TV channel in a neo-Eurasian line and has a political line in the country that consistently advocates an alliance with Iran, Russia and China.)