The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[yavar]

Iran nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi warning to China on delaying redesigning of Irak Plutonium reactor

 

[Aramagedon]

Another insult and deception from EU/ another deception from traitors in Iran.

SPV (transaction mechanism) has been reduced to INSTEX, a company which exchanges oil for food and drugs, the same program which they used against Saddam in Iraq. The goal is helping European and not Iran.

We are already exchanging oil for food and drugs in EU and everywhere else. so neither it's new, nor will have have any positive effect on our economy.

Now EU demands full implementation of FATF (Their financial spying program) to continue this pathetic help.

کوه اروپا موش زائید!
خبر سه ماه قبل رجانیوز تایید شد؛ پس از ماه‌ها وقت‌کشی اروپا صرفا یک شرکت برای تسویه حساب ایجاد کرد/ کانال مالی وعده داده شده به آب باریکه INSTEX
تقلیل یافت/ ظریف باز هم نتوانست شروط و خطوط قرمز نظام را حفظ کند

غش و ضعف دولت برای آب‌نبات کاغذی اروپا
را تصویب کنید FATF گروکشی اروپا شروع شد؛ اگر غذا می‌خواهید باید

After JCPOA now Oil for food ...

Thanks Rouhani .. Thanks Zarrrif ..

 

[yavar]

Saudi Arabia 'developing missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads' at base spotted by satellite cameras
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ds-military-base-satellite-iran-a8747826.html

Europe announcement INSTEX ( sets up Iran trade mechanism to bypass US sanctions ) SPV

 

[Aramagedon]

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[yavar]

Iran IRGC Gen. Salami: if Europe conspires against our defensive ballistic missiles, we will have to make a strategic jump

 

[mohsen]

Iranian oil minister Zanganeh:
Except turkey, no European country buys our oil, not even the two European countries who have received waivers to import our oil, they don't even answer our contacts.
بین کشورهای اروپایی فقط ترکیه از ما نفت می‌خرد/ جواب تماس‌های ما را نمی‌دهند/ درباره فروش به روسیه نمی‌توانم توضیح بدهم
-----------

Yeah, Europeans are good countries and Mr genius Zarif has managed to isolate U.S from it's European allies!

 

[Sineva]

Iran IRGC Gen. Salami: if Europe conspires against our defensive ballistic missiles, we will have to make a strategic jump

Thats only credible if you`re going to put a NUKE on them sir!.

 

[yavar]

Thats only credible if you`re going to put a NUKE on them sir!.

he can't be more clear then that

Iran IRGC Gen. Salami: surreptitious Power

 

[Draco.IMF]

Is that real?

MI6 spies 'smuggled a defecting Iranian nuclear scientist into the UK on a dinghy by using Channel migrant crisis as cover'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ting-Iranian-nuclear-scientist-UK-dinghy.html

 

[WinterNights]

Is that real?

MI6 spies 'smuggled a defecting Iranian nuclear scientist into the UK on a dinghy by using Channel migrant crisis as cover'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ting-Iranian-nuclear-scientist-UK-dinghy.html

Probably another BS story. At best this was some guy that worked in a nuclear facility and they will claim he was a "nuclear scientist". Remember their laptop story? this is probably something like that.

 

[raptor22]

Trying to Kill the Iran Deal Could End Up Saving It

“We don’t agree that we should have maximum pressure right now, considering that we want the Iranians to stay in the nuclear deal,” said a Democratic congressional aide. “But if you’re going to have maximum pressure, then waivers don’t work.”

Even if a Democrat won the White House in 2020, though, he or she might not think it wise to reenter the JCPOA as it currently stands. Robert Einhorn, who helped negotiate the nuclear deal in the Obama administration, noted that some key provisions would expire not long after a hypothetical Democrat took office in 2021. Besides, Iran is, according to the public assessment of the U.S. intelligence community, still abiding by the terms of the deal under current U.S. sanctions—what’s the political benefit of giving up sanctions leverage right off the bat?

Richard Nephew, who was the sanctions expert for Obama’s negotiating team with Iran, told me that even if a Democrat made a tactical decision to reenter the deal, “we’ve got to figure out a way to deal with the lost time.” The current terms of the JCPOA, he said, are “rapidly becoming not worth it.”

Administration officials have repeatedly said that they seek not regime change but behavior change, and that their goal is to drive the Iranians to the table to strike a better deal. But critics of the “maximum pressure” policy I spoke to, whether or not they supported the Iran deal initially, all agree on one thing: Iran is prepared to wait out the next two years of the Trump administration. “Absent an unforeseen U.S. sweetener, I believe Iran is willing to wait,” Hochstein said. “They’re willing to take the pain. They’ve demonstrated that. They’ve had bad times before.”
​

 

[VEVAK]

Trying to Kill the Iran Deal Could End Up Saving It

“We don’t agree that we should have maximum pressure right now, considering that we want the Iranians to stay in the nuclear deal,” said a Democratic congressional aide. “But if you’re going to have maximum pressure, then waivers don’t work.”

Even if a Democrat won the White House in 2020, though, he or she might not think it wise to reenter the JCPOA as it currently stands. Robert Einhorn, who helped negotiate the nuclear deal in the Obama administration, noted that some key provisions would expire not long after a hypothetical Democrat took office in 2021. Besides, Iran is, according to the public assessment of the U.S. intelligence community, still abiding by the terms of the deal under current U.S. sanctions—what’s the political benefit of giving up sanctions leverage right off the bat?

Richard Nephew, who was the sanctions expert for Obama’s negotiating team with Iran, told me that even if a Democrat made a tactical decision to reenter the deal, “we’ve got to figure out a way to deal with the lost time.” The current terms of the JCPOA, he said, are “rapidly becoming not worth it.”

Administration officials have repeatedly said that they seek not regime change but behavior change, and that their goal is to drive the Iranians to the table to strike a better deal. But critics of the “maximum pressure” policy I spoke to, whether or not they supported the Iran deal initially, all agree on one thing: Iran is prepared to wait out the next two years of the Trump administration. “Absent an unforeseen U.S. sweetener, I believe Iran is willing to wait,” Hochstein said. “They’re willing to take the pain. They’ve demonstrated that. They’ve had bad times before.”
​

View attachment 547829

I also don't understand what Iran's strategy is for when Trump leaves. Does Iran plan on raising the stakes after Trump leaves or are they simply willing to part with more?
What exactly will Iran's card be after Trumps term is over that will cause the next US administration to not drag it's feet? And what exactly will Iran be willing to sacrifice because the Democrats are already coming out with nonsense like this.
It would be stupid to raise the stakes after trump leaves and whatever your gonna do has to be done while he is still in office.

And this is why unlike before I'm for Iran developing +10,000KM ICBM's that can reach the U.S. because if Ballistic Missiles is what the U.S. is now obsessed with and they are not satisfied with Iran restricting it's self to Intermediate Ranged BM then we should give them an ICBM program we will be willing to part with at least for some time and as long as it doesn't interfere with Iran's Space Program and that's a card Iran can play with the Democrats if they stick to the current JCPOA which could be worthwhile win for them because they can go back to their people and say Trumps Iran Policy brought them an Iranian ICBM capable of reaching U.S. soil where as their policy not only took it away but paved the way for Billions in international trade and brought further stability to an unstable region!
And unlike the JCPOA a restriction on ICBM's don't require inspections on the ground because Iran would need repeated ICBM tests and they are fully capable of monitoring Iranian launches from space and in return U.S. removes all sanctions and allows Iran into the WTO.....

Simply put Iran can't afford to wait around for another decade for another deal to be reached with another U.S. administration and short of a nuke the only way I see forward that would make this priority for the U.S. so they don't drag their feet is by massively increasing Iranian BM program with not only an ICBM but with enough missile that military force doesn't become an option because from the looks of it the U.S. has every intention of weaponizing space regardless of what Iran does
Iran needs to show Trumps Iran policy to be an utter failure because if we don't this pattern of behavior will persist after every U.S. election.

 

[raptor22]

I also don't understand what Iran's strategy is for when Trump leaves. Does Iran plan on raising the stakes after Trump leaves or are they simply willing to part with more?
What exactly will Iran's card be after Trumps term is over that will cause the next US administration to not drag it's feet? And what exactly will Iran be willing to sacrifice because the Democrats are already coming out with nonsense like this.
It would be stupid to raise the stakes after trump leaves and whatever your gonna do has to be done while he is still in office.

And this is why unlike before I'm for Iran developing +10,000KM ICBM's that can reach the U.S. because if Ballistic Missiles is what the U.S. is now obsessed with and they are not satisfied with Iran restricting it's self to Intermediate Ranged BM then we should give them an ICBM program we will be willing to part with at least for some time and as long as it doesn't interfere with Iran's Space Program and that's a card Iran can play with the Democrats if they stick to the current JCPOA which could be worthwhile win for them because they can go back to their people and say Trumps Iran Policy brought them an Iranian ICBM capable of reaching U.S. soil where as their policy not only took it away but paved the way for Billions in international trade and brought further stability to an unstable region!
And unlike the JCPOA a restriction on ICBM's don't require inspections on the ground because Iran would need repeated ICBM tests and they are fully capable of monitoring Iranian launches from space and in return U.S. removes all sanctions and allows Iran into the WTO.....

Simply put Iran can't afford to wait around for another decade for another deal to be reached with another U.S. administration and short of a nuke the only way I see forward that would make this priority for the U.S. so they don't drag their feet is by massively increasing Iranian BM program with not only an ICBM but with enough missile that military force doesn't become an option because from the looks of it the U.S. has every intention of weaponizing space regardless of what Iran does
Iran needs to show Trumps Iran policy to be an utter failure because if we don't this pattern of behavior will persist after every U.S. election.

نظر بنده کشیدن دندان مذاکره با آمریکاست .... سال 2003 ، 2005، 2007، 2011، 2015 و حالا این ... نتیجه؟.... مشکل موشکی یا هسته ای نیست که بشیینیم با مذاکره حل کنیم ... دنیا بزرگتر از آمریکاست چرا باید خودمون بازارمون رو به این افراد غیر اعتماد گره بزنیم؟
و این یکدفعه اتافاق نیفتاد و اگر برخورد متناسب میشد به اینجا نمی رسید ...

 

[VEVAK]

نظر بنده کشیدن دندان مذاکره با آمریکاست .... سال 2003 ، 2005، 2007، 2011، 2015 و حالا این ... نتیجه؟.... مشکل موشکی یا هسته ای نیست که بشیینیم با مذاکره حل کنیم ... دنیا بزرگتر از آمریکاست چرا باید خودمون بازارمون رو به این افراد غیر اعتماد گره بزنیم؟
و این یکدفعه اتافاق نیفتاد و اگر برخورد متناسب میشد به اینجا نمی رسید ...

Yes I also wish that Iran was both military and economically strong enough that we could simply ignore the US but we don't live in that reality and the Dollar still rules the world & the U.S. still has control over the world economy which means they have the power of effecting Iran's economy on a global scale and not just between Iran and the U.S.
When you see corporation and companies in countries like China & Russia bow out when their interests gets pressured enough what do you expect Iran to do?
And I don't want the U.S. entering Iran's economy freely and the most recent example as to why not is with the JCPOA and the U.S. ability to shape policy in countries that they have too much access in regardless of the wishes of the elected political rep's of that country.

But give me an option where the Iranian people don't end up paying the price and I'll be all for it!

Here are the options I see
1.War. Iran's supreme leader has blocked the path of Nuke so going with the war option against such a powerful military regardless of the end results and with no nukes to back it up would at the very least result in the destruction of 40 years of infrastructure.
And in this option we would have to put our wait towards improving our military capabilities within the next decade which includes developing nuclear stockpile and spending +$40Billion USD on our military for the next decade....

2.Surrender where we go back to being a puppet state and our natural recourses robbed with no future for our country and our people except for a few fancy looking buildings. And clearly that's no option at all.

3.Some kind of a compromise where we talk to our enemies under reasonable conditions and look for reasonable win win option where we don't negotiate away our military capabilities or scientific achievements vital to the countries future

4.We refuse to negotiate, watch sanctions continue, put massive resources towards circumventing sanctions and hope which is an option Iran has taken in the past and we waited for decades for things to change and sanctions to be lifted and the fact is unless you force things to change nothing will and it's negative effects will continue to grow decade after decade till it's not sustainable without large scale oppression.

5.This option would only be possible if our enemy wasn't the U.S. the most powerful country and economy on the planet. And that's starting a coalition of Asian nations much like but even superior to the EU with a single passport and currency system, joint military, joint space programs, joint economic and scientific projects,..... Fact is the majority of the world population lives in Asia and yet we remain the most invaded continent on the planet so a united coalition of nations between a large number of Asian Nations that could potentially challenge them is something the U.S. would never allow unless those nations are directly subservient to and dependent on them.


So I'd like to know what you think our other options are?

 

[raptor22]

Yes I also wish that Iran was both military and economically strong enough that we could simply ignore the US but we don't live in that reality and the Dollar still rules the world & the U.S. still has control over the world economy which means they have the power of effecting Iran's economy on a global scale and not just between Iran and the U.S.
When you see corporation and companies in countries like China & Russia bow out when their interests gets pressured enough what do you expect Iran to do?
And I don't want the U.S. entering Iran's economy freely and the most recent example as to why not is with the JCPOA and the U.S. ability to shape policy in countries that they have too much access in regardless of the wishes of the elected political rep's of that country.

But give me an option where the Iranian people don't end up paying the price and I'll be all for it!

Here are the options I see
1.War. Iran's supreme leader has blocked the path of Nuke so going with the war option against such a powerful military regardless of the end results and with no nukes to back it up would at the very least result in the destruction of 40 years of infrastructure.
And in this option we would have to put our wait towards improving our military capabilities within the next decade which includes developing nuclear stockpile and spending +$40Billion USD on our military for the next decade....

2.Surrender where we go back to being a puppet state and our natural recourses robbed with no future for our country and our people except for a few fancy looking buildings. And clearly that's no option at all.

3.Some kind of a compromise where we talk to our enemies under reasonable conditions and look for reasonable win win option where we don't negotiate away our military capabilities or scientific achievements vital to the countries future

4.We refuse to negotiate, watch sanctions continue, put massive resources towards circumventing sanctions and hope which is an option Iran has taken in the past and we waited for decades for things to change and sanctions to be lifted and the fact is unless you force things to change nothing will and it's negative effects will continue to grow decade after decade till it's not sustainable without large scale oppression.

5.This option would only be possible if our enemy wasn't the U.S. the most powerful country and economy on the planet. And that's starting a coalition of Asian nations much like but even superior to the EU with a single passport and currency system, joint military, joint space programs, joint economic and scientific projects,..... Fact is the majority of the world population lives in Asia and yet we remain the most invaded continent on the planet so a united coalition of nations between a large number of Asian Nations that could potentially challenge them is something the U.S. would never allow unless those nations are directly subservient to and dependent on them.


So I'd like to know what you think our other options are?

I think there are some misunderstanding over here ... I don't reject talks I've supported the JCPOA from the beginning even in the thread asking Rouhani resignation I supported him as elected president and also Zarif I described them as people that wanted to serve their country and added I'd rather blame the enemy than them for results and I would continue supporting them .Therefore for me negotiation is a reasonable,civil & logical way to address our disputes with others and I strongly reject isolation as Hafez says:

What I meant is the other side of the coin ... My problem is the idea that ties everything with negotiations and see it as key to solve all problems ... for me negotiation is a tool to serve Iran interests and that's the only thing that matters ... So no matter what you do the priory is our interests and it's what SL has mentioned several times as a reason for not setting the deal on fire ... I am not a policy maker in Iran but I do think normal relations with the USA could balance our ties with China and Russia .. the JCPOA was supposed to pave path for this goal, the notion of normalization has scared KSA and israel and has made them to do whatever it takes to sabotage it .... so it's not that easy way to address or giving prescription on such an issue without taking proper steps even in the region. (after the deal Rouhani abandoned the China and Russia and even regional countries somehow for the west and that's another problem).
Regarding nuclear deal and its outcome we actually could blame ourselves too, once Zarif said it's only a piece of paper, depending on what we do the outcome would be different. So when the other side sanction you within a week after reaching the deal & you smile they realized that there will be no reactions even if they pass isa & travel ban ... still no reaction then pulling out ... still nothing reimposing sanctions seeking regime change ... & still nothing then what’s the political benefit of giving up sanctions leverage right off the bat? or “we’ve got to figure out a way to deal with the lost time.” now the same game with the EU ... the point is Iran isn't military and economically strong enough (comparativity) that it could simply bear the burden of ramification of such a policy. I think we could ignore the US but not this cat & mouse game .. So as Zarif said thoroughly deal and negotiations is one thing preserving it is walking a very tight rope which related to many factors that seemingly we've not practiced it very well so far.

The option is hard to explain but it takes a very skillful diplomacy combined with a very discipline economy measures within the country and much more important is the way we treat our own people. and the fact is to know what is the real objective that Iran's officials are pursuing right now ... is it economy?is it normalization of ties? is it security and preventing possibility of a war?is it chapter VII ? 'cause whatever it is it is evidently still working that have persuaded them to stay in the deal which Zarif described it recently as a strategic patient.

We have many cards to play so we are not empty handed. we could stay in the deal whilst we should takes some policy to make the other side to pay for not honoring its commitments why should they bother themselves when we implement the deal and enjoy the sanctions in the same time like a good boy??? we made them to think that we need the deal & we stay in it no matter what happens , Actually burning such a false impression led them to sit around the table back in 2010 while they had troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Previously our words were taken as the guarantee of our policy Rohani has damaged this reputation we should restore it. so I think if we could define some red lines/deadlines for other side (could be in JCPOA framework) with the small steps as they did with sanctioning 6 persons at first but make it clear where it is headed then we could even restore our nuclear card too & if we play it well we could end being in a even much better position than in 2012 due to being in better position regionally and also on missile program ...
We are sanctioned, key parts of our program is halted or rolled back, they seek regime change and maybe a military plan (very unlikely) our oil exports have been target that and has got lowered to 1million barrels per day..the Q is what we lose if we takes these steps? more sanctions or corporation and companies in countries like China & Russia bow out?? the EU & the US fight over Iran? the point is they are making sanctions (later cards) and we just smile ...

I insist on such steps 'cause I am afraid that the JCPOA turns to a model for western countries in dealing with Iran the idea that Iran is ready for compromise once you increase pressure (the JCPOA were not reached base on such a notion they did due to having no other option)... you talk of compromises .. ok no problem but what if they'd do the same policy that they've done towards the JCPOA?? so for any future deals you gotta fix this one first.

Some other steps has nothing to do with negotiations such as fighting corruption, transparency (I don't know why it's hard to bring all transitions under an national network to be monitored it could be very helpful and come handy) or better management ... these are not Americans' faults ...