Tata Deal With Lockheed Martin effect on PAF F16 fleet

[SQ8]

1. fuel reserver I'll not comment on, but they would last for months and certainly more than a week, even in case of embargo or a blockade.
By war stocks if you mean inventory of spare parts than again that is cognisant with use, should last more than a week.

2. Losses on the ground, yes in case they are able to surprise us or they are able to repeatedly launch successful attacks against our airbases especially crucial air bases. But why one week or lets say even two weeks..

About ground losses, we need to temper it with actual lessons for history. The last such successful campaign was by USAF again Iraqi air force in first gulf war. USAF+USN+ allies had lots of advantages and force multipliers over their opponent, for example, they had AEWACS to provide a better situational aware, satellites and lot of other sensors to identify targets as well as identify damage in real time. EW prowess in shape of Raven etc. to completely jam up Iraqi radars, advantage of 4 to 1 in numbers and that with huge qualitative difference as well plus growlers and prowlers to even make radio communications between wingmen a feat. And most importantly, Tomahawks. These were extremely accurate, iraqis had no answer to them and US launched them in hundreds (I think if I am not forgetting or mixing things up more than 800 were launched within initial stages of campaign) against lots of command and communication targets especially related to Iraqi air force as they wanted to neutralise it before moving to other targets, so as to give them a chance to get inside iraqi decision loop. Still with all this what was the tally? 220+ out of more than 900+ aircrafts (all aircrafts not just combat fighters/bombers)

The record of losses in air is actually even more dismal but I'll suffice it to say that chances of a 'turkey shoot' are higher where there are significant difference in technology and tactics as well.

3. About simulations, they are fine but they miss the 'human factor'.

1. These we cannot assume as invulnerable or always accessible

2. GW is not a good analogy since there was a disparity in the Ooda loop of the two forces. Here we are assuming equal ooda loops, equal SA and training. That is the whole idea of a wargame to remove the human factor and let the roll of the dice play.

3. Hence wargames and simulation.

 

[ashok321]

"Your first option should be the F-35… it's invisible to radar and can avoid 'lock down.' "

 

[ejaz007]

It is strange when PAF was buying block 52 the Indians were lecturing us about kill switches and all the technology to stop these F-16s from leaving Pakistan's territory and attacking India.

Now they are being offered block 70 and suddenly it is the best thing happening for IAF.

The one primary question is will India be truly building them or just importing parts from USA and assembling them in India. I seriously doubt USA would simply handover every thing related to the fighter to the Indians.

The confidentiality agreement and non disclosure clauses alone shall drag the deal for quite some time.

Then there is the Indian bureaucracy notorious for destroying a perfect deal at the negotiation table.

first let the deal materialize and then discuss its implications.

 

[ghazi768]

1. These we cannot assume as invulnerable or always accessible

2. GW is not a good analogy since there was a disparity in the Ooda loop of the two forces. Here we are assuming equal ooda loops, equal SA and training. That is the whole idea of a wargame to remove the human factor and let the roll of the dice play.

3. Hence wargames and simulation.

1. Yes, I agree neither invulnerable nor always accessible. But why in a week or two? what in terms of weapons or tactics they can do to achieve in a week.

2. That is why I mentioned first gulf war, with so much difference still losses for all aircrafts were about 25-30% and mostly bombers and other aircrafts. What I wanted was to know, in some detail, why you think ground or air losses will be such that it will make us almost un-operative in a week. Iraqis did not had AWACS (or Egyptians/Syrians in 67) while their ground based radars got jammed heavily. Also most bombings were conducted by low flyers which already would evade most of these. Do you see something similar happening with us?

US had a very large inventory of tomahawks, they again were very difficult to detect because of terrain hugging and were very accurate permitting to hit important facilities like radars and hangers quickly at the start in air campaign. Other than these they also had many mavericks which were mostly TV guided and laser based munitions as well, which once they had achieved good degradation with tomahawks was used to than complete the destruction of bases. Do you see India having such capability? which weapons. I think their longest range ones is probably a land based regiment of brahmos, Is it deployed and operational. Can they actually 'mimic' tomahawks in stealth or accuracy?

On the other hand, do you think we may have somethings similar.. which if used with proper tactics may seriously 'dent' their assets or atleast elongate our chances of operating to more than a couple of weeks?

Why so many losses in air? can you elaborate on it, please.

3. I agree that war-games and simulations are important but combining them with actual exercises and trainings experience is more important. Simulations usually cannot account for behaviours such as aborting mission when getting 'painted' or not to be able to keep the 'itchy' finger from trigger when launch parameters are not yet optimum or you suddenly start hearing the dreaded 'tone' from other side as well. what will the simulation do? wait or start executing g slices.

 

[S10]

I think any reasonable Pakistani knows the era of F-16 is coming to an end in PAF service. There is only so many second hand planes you can purchase, and the fleet is getting up there in age. The workhorse of PAF will be JF-17 Block III in the future, supported by a few elite squadrons of J-31 stealth jets.

 

[Storm Force]

If the Chinease wont rely on JF17 to protect their airspace against F16 F18 & F15 today

What Chance do you think PAF has in protecting their airspace against Rafale Block 70 & Su30mki .

Too many the South Asian Aero balance is changing rapidly AND the JF17 being the BACKBONE of PAF for next 25 years seems to looking 10 years too late.

IF .......... A BIG IF............. the USA are successful in persuading india to invest $15 billion in conjunction with TATA to license build the BLOCK70 super viper then 100+ J31 or Typhoons will be needed by PAF before 2030

That is not feasible for the current Pakistan ..........

 

[salman-1]

India would be only assembling Ckd kits and manufacturing mostly airframe parts as there are no such big industrial units which will make engine or radars completely. If the deal materialised among then.
My personal feeling is that Us is playing same game with India as the dassault aviation played in case of Rafael. They never agreed internally to give manufacturing tech to India infact backed out of agreed terms and raised the price many fold as they knew this is there favourite bird.. The Lca failure is the same motivation for Americans as the French had. They know Indians are dieing to make in India fighter fly high. Only height attained would be price in both cases. Americans also want a big chunk like the French had from Indian economy.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

The timing for leaving behind F16 and USA is ideal now , we can't trust USA as a partner
Trump has turned the relation into SNAKE

The psychology behind technology transfer is a long term policy which will advance Indian technical advantage by 10-15 years ahead of Pakistan , and we will have a mismatch like Israel has with Joran or Lebnoon.

And we all know how Israel attacks Arab countries at will

The free hand in technology transfer is a threat to Pakistan's national security

Destabalization of G.C.C has American hand , and now the new weapon war is about to start in South Asia

US has shown it has backstabbed Pakistan

 

[Zhukov]

Russia has taken India's loyalty & softness for a ride. They have played a lot of double game with India, treating India like a slave & giving threats & blackmail of Pakistan & China. You can't exploit a friend just because you have a technological upper-hand. We have the money.

Modi is doing the right thing by putting Putin in his place.

Russian "Gorshkov" aircraft carrier was lying idle with Russia for decades, because they could not finish it & could not afford the cost to maintain. They said India, take it for free & just pay 900 million for finishing it & for all the fittings. India thought, it is quite cheap & a massive bargain, but after the signing & getting the money, that is absolutely not the Russian attitude.

Russia kept giving excuses to modify this & that, while asking for additional costs, rising again and again,Finally, the cost of ship modification was set at $2 billion 930 million & the delivery kept delaying for more than a decade. We ended up paying 2 Billion extra.

Same story with Sukhoi 30MKI TOT production. After getting money & we setting up all the production line & in to production, they fooled us & kept all the important parts, engine & codes to themselves. That's betrayal

Brahmos was co-production, their contribution was engine & seeker tech. Once everything is developed on our cost, now they make a advanced version of their own & counter selling to the countries showing interest in Brahmos at a cheaper price. They have increased the Engine & seeker tech price multi fold making the missile very expensive now & we can't sell it without their permission as it's co-production. This is cheating, use our money to develop & they make their own & lag the further up-gradation so they can sell the upgraded ones before us. Once we develop they have captured the market.

India being loyal for all the help of the Russians in the past, put up with all these nonsense of Russia, when they were pocketing our billions & growing their defense industry. Now as they are getting little more of Chinese money Putin is trying to use mind games & black mail to get our money.

Not anymore. They will work on our terms, because we don't earn money to put it at Russia's feet on their order. Our money we will spend they way we want. We supported Russia in their hard times when the Soviet collapsed by pumping in billions of dollars when many countries kept knocking at our door to buy from them. Previous Gov.ts only partially shifted their money to Israel, France, America & west. But Modi has taken the bold step to cancel the FGFA because it doesn't suit our terms. Putin will come back desperately soon for another quick bargain seeing the F16 deal announcement.

In 1999 when at war we asked for many parts & equipment's from Russia, they just put a price which is unacceptable how a friend ditches you when in need. It was Israel who helped us with many equipment at that time & we went for it. That was the first big hurt we experienced of our friendship. A friend in need is not helped is not a true friend.

It's a very hard-bitten situation for Putin today with sanctions, they have to bend to India. No other choice. They know atleast Indians are trust worthy than Chinese. If Russia loses India, it will be it's downfall. If I am not wrong there will be soon many people who will come out in procession against Putin's policy. You should see it by the turn of 2018. Russian people are very angry with Putin for building mistrust with India.

We still love Russians from the bottom of our heart for standing by us in the past especially 1971 & we will give our life for Russia, but Putin needs to go.

Bhai no offence but you sound like an emotional speaker at a local Pan wala shop after evening tea adressing the crowd with all vigor and valour

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

The timing for leaving behind F16 and USA is ideal now , we can't trust USA as a partner
Trump has turned the relation into SNAKE

...

US has shown it has backstabbed Pakistan

Plenty of opinions on the situation float around.

 

[NKVD]

India would be only assembling Ckd kits and manufacturing mostly airframe parts as there are no such big industrial units which will make engine or radars completely. If the deal materialised among then.
My personal feeling is that Us is playing same game with India as the dassault aviation played in case of Rafael. They never agreed internally to give manufacturing tech to India infact backed out of agreed terms and raised the price many fold as they knew this is there favourite bird.. The Lca failure is the same motivation for Americans as the French had. They know Indians are dieing to make in India fighter fly high. Only height attained would be price in both cases. Americans also want a big chunk like the French had from Indian economy.

Lol Unlike HAL Which is PSU a govt company Which depends on Govt funds And bureaucrats

TATA's are Multinational giant Corporate They Have Money of there Own Two fill in the Gaps And hire best Minds on the planet To Develop R&D of their Own Like LM,SAAB,Boeing

Just Like they done in .Truck,CAR,Automobile industry in the 90's And Recently in defense sector as well

They Will Create there Own facilities And Whatever they learn from this Deal To create Its their Aerospace infrastructure To Develop their Platforms in future For Indian defense market

India Inclusion of Private Global Giants into Defense is the biggest Revolution & reform in Indian defense industry

 

[salman-1]

Defe

Lol Unlike HAL Which is PSU a govt company Which depends on Govt funds And bureaucrats

TATA's are Multinational giant Corporate They Have Money of there Own Two fill in the Gaps And hire best Minds on the planet To Develop R&D of their Own Like LM,SAAB,Boeing

Just Like they done in .Truck,CAR,Automobile industry in the 90's And Recently in defense sector as well

They Will Create there Own facilities And Whatever they learn from this Deal To create Its their Aerospace infrastructure To Develop their Platforms in future For Indian defense market

India Inclusion of Private Global Giants into Defense is the biggest Revolution & reform in Indian defense industry

Defence industries take decades to mature their technologies and soecially man power skills. Having sufficient money in hand doesn't get you to moon. They will hire the best minds on planet is easy to say. If that was the case why didn't you modify your Tejas with best minds on planet to make it air staff worthy atleast. Making truck and automobiles is a peanut acheivement in front of a fighter jet. A plane like F-16 is a serious business, yeah you might be able to make it in India after 2 decades like Tejas and just put in another shelf beside the Tejas. Good luck

 

[NKVD]

Defence industries take decades to mature their technologies and soecially man power skills. Having sufficient money in hand doesn't get you to moon. They will hire the best minds on planet is easy to say.

Amateur analysis
Lol India Already Investing Billions in R&D With Private Inputs it will Improve further We already has industry running

With

Big corporate Like TATA,reliance ,L&T,Mahindra,Baba kalyani ,Punj loyld Our capabilities are developing further and further

Its a incentive Of Market competition

why didn't you modify your Tejas with best minds on planet to make it air staff worthy atleast

LCA Is already in Upgrade stage Which Now based Private public JV model

LCA MK1 A With AESA and DRFMs

Is matter or fact More modern than JF-17 Which Still lacks Modern HDMDS And HOBS missile And Advanced composite's

India almost Need 600 Planes in Next 20 years SO MNC

A plane like F-16 is a serious business, yeah you might be able to make it in India after 2 decades like Tejas and just put in another shelf beside the Tejas. Good luck

LOL

Tejas Was build By PSU A Govt company With govt bureaucrats which was dependent on govt funds The process Was Long its Created Aerospace Infrastructure in India Its was Not mere a aircraft but a Complete Project in it-self
which created Local LRU facilities in India And R&D

TATA on the other hand Covered Miles of Generation building In APV ,Howtizer
BPJ,And Arms Ammunition building in few years and Is supplying To class products to its customers that include Boeing,Bae etc as well

DRDO is Now on verge Privatization like DARPA

The Key technologies ,RADARs, Missiles ,Ammunition Its created building will Be TOT to Private Multinational Giants which use there Money to fill the gaps and resources to develop it product

Recently DRDO Labs build a GAN AESA Private firms are jumping to get It TOT

Eg Pinaka MBRL,and Kestral APV and others


Indian MNC's are the biggest assets and Trump card we pulled on right time For Make in India


Now Look at the Example These Two guns

DRDO Transferred TOT Of 155/52 Howitzer To both OFB a Govt company

TATA A MNC

OFB With its 50 years of experience in gun building Is matched by TATA in Matter of Few years With its product In Competition BID That's A power Of Privatization and Market Economy I was talking about

 

[Nalini]

US is very much kind with India now a days.
F16 assembly line.
Predator Drones sale.

Both are big ticket for India

While for Pakistan

Bill for cancelling Non NATO Allies Status
Bill to reduce compensation Aid to Pakistan
Trying to increase Drones attack inside Pakistan territory

As usual untrustworthy friend.

You need to smartly & carefully weigh your options & align yourself with the right powers to establish your growth & security. That's exactly what India is doing. Nobody is kind or unkind, you earn your image & credibility with your acts.

America needs India as a strategic ally. India's relation with all countries are mutual & two way. The problem with Pakistan is it's mostly one way of receiving, due to which it ends up in the receiving end. Unless you have something equal or valuable to offer, nobody will want to notice you. We have added value to every alliance. We supported Russia When Soviet union collapsed, We supported Iran when the west imposed sanctions, We supported Israel when their economy was struggling to find momentum to catapult. We are supplying food & necessities when Saudi & co has blocked supplies to Qatar. We play our part when in need & also keeping its opponents undisturbed. This balancing act helped us quietly build our economy & today we have ample money in our pockets to influence & balance all our actions. That's why India is considered as a important player in world affairs.

We don't breach contracts, have never tried to exploit or play with sensitive technologies or reverse engineer, which are short term benefits. India plays its friendship with considerable loyalty due to which, we command respect. Your policies affect your relations & economy.

Sorry to say, Pakistan leadership has always looked to have a sugar daddy relations, rather than building the youth & economy, to stand on its own foot. Your wrong policies & power struggle between civilian & military establishment has never given time to focus on generating income & economy built on your own.

Right now your country has no economic significance to influence any country. So your policies should be to align with strategic countries & powers to propel your growth & shrink your threats. Everything you are doing is against.

Your first role should be to align with India which will cut most of your internal chaos & security threats. Your problems with Afghanistan, Iran, Balochistan will almost become nil. Your people, cricket, artists will all start getting back their smiles. Open up the route to India, initiate TAPI, Save money from our satellites - telecommunication, electricity, automobiles, railway, healthcare. The list can go on & on. It's more a Pakistan's need & advantage than India's. There is nothing to feel small or ashamed. Your past has been defeats with India, which has turned into revenge for all your past humiliation. It will only keep you in your hate zone which will make you do more & more mistakes. Shed your hatred. The image of Islam is also another unfortunate disadvantage playing against your interest. Caught between Saudi & Iran is another stumbling block. The odds are against you. Think & do the right moves.

China is seen by most of the world with suspicion as a foxy tyrant who has expansionist designs. Do have trade & relation with them but putting your entire weight & bet on them will make you also to be viewed by the world as a harmful element. Anyway I know, you people will mock my posts, but if you try, you can definitely shed the hatred & bring normalcy in the region. Only you can do it. Extend your hand of friendship with India. Start talking positives of India in this forum to begin with

India still is facing difficulty in making a leap in cutting edge technology to match the West, which is decades ahead. We can't catch up with the Americans or Russians in the next 20-25 years. Comparatively we know SAAB Gripen is better in tech here. It's true the F16 deal may not be the best deal we may get from the US, but we cannot ignore the fact that defence procurement deals are also not just about getting Military hardware. They more importantly builds strategic partnerships. According to our needs, US is important over Sweden as a partner, so we would go with F16. So making the choice by striking a balance is the key. If Trump rejects F16 transfer he will lose the money to others, so he is going to give it a serious thought for sure. The advantage is we have LM, SAAB, Rafaels & Sukhoi FGFA all chasing India.

 

[mikaal hassan]

You need to smartly & carefully weigh your options & align yourself with the right powers to establish your growth & security. That's exactly what India is doing. Nobody is kind or unkind, you earn your image & credibility with your acts.

America needs India as a strategic ally. India's relation with all countries are mutual & two way. The problem with Pakistan is it's mostly one way of receiving, due to which it ends up in the receiving end. Unless you have something equal or valuable to offer, nobody will want to notice you. We have added value to every alliance. We supported Russia When Soviet union collapsed, We supported Iran when the west imposed sanctions, We supported Israel when their economy was struggling to find momentum to catapult. We are supplying food & necessities when Saudi & co has blocked supplies to Qatar. We play our part when in need & also keeping its opponents undisturbed. This balancing act helped us quietly build our economy & today we have ample money in our pockets to influence & balance all our actions. That's why India is considered as a important player in world affairs.

We don't breach contracts, have never tried to exploit or play with sensitive technologies or reverse engineer, which are short term benefits. India plays its friendship with considerable loyalty due to which, we command respect. Your policies affect your relations & economy.

Sorry to say, Pakistan leadership has always looked to have a sugar daddy relations, rather than building the youth & economy, to stand on its own foot. Your wrong policies & power struggle between civilian & military establishment has never given time to focus on generating income & economy built on your own.

Right now your country has no economic significance to influence any country. So your policies should be to align with strategic countries & powers to propel your growth & shrink your threats. Everything you are doing is against.

Your first role should be to align with India which will cut most of your internal chaos & security threats. Your problems with Afghanistan, Iran, Balochistan will almost become nil. Your people, cricket, artists will all start getting back their smiles. Open up the route to India, initiate TAPI, Save money from our satellites - telecommunication, electricity, automobiles, railway, healthcare. The list can go on & on. It's more a Pakistan's need & advantage than India's. There is nothing to feel small or ashamed. Your past has been defeats with India, which has turned into revenge for all your past humiliation. It will only keep you in your hate zone which will make you do more & more mistakes. Shed your hatred. The image of Islam is also another unfortunate disadvantage playing against your interest. Caught between Saudi & Iran is another stumbling block. The odds are against you. Think & do the right moves.

China is seen by most of the world with suspicion as a foxy tyrant who has expansionist designs. Do have trade & relation with them but putting your entire weight & bet on them will make you also to be viewed by the world as a harmful element. Anyway I know, you people will mock my posts, but if you try, you can definitely shed the hatred & bring normalcy in the region. Only you can do it. Extend your hand of friendship with India. Start talking of positives of India in this forum to begin with

In simple and most favourite words in English take all your analysis and shuv it where the sun ,,,,the moon and the cows head doesn't shine ......Pakistan was created to Keep people safe from lownlife Hindu mentality ....your coming here to lecture us that we need to go back to being a slave nation like bengalis and Maldives and Bhutan etc....Jog on We Pakistani people love our freedom if you Hindu don't like it simply piss of then .....you can try to divide us as much as you like ....all of us will always be Pakistani at the end of the day