Taliban 2.0 - By Cyril Almeda

[SQ8]

Taken from Taliban 2.0 - DAWN.COM All credits to Dawn News group.

read the whole article at Dawn.com

Taliban 2.0 by Cyril Almeda

THE best thing about the Pakistani Taliban was that you could count on them to do something stupid.
...............................

Now, you keep waiting and waiting and waiting for the critical misstep, the mistake too far, but it never seems to come. Welcome to the TTP v2.0.

......They haven’t suddenly become military geniuses. But what they are becoming are masters of manipulation.

And the state simply has no answer.

See what the expanded bag of tricks has allowed TTP 2.0 to do. A year ago, for the first time, the TTP inserted itself into the national political process.

Going into the election, the TTP drew a neat line down the middle: PPP, ANP, MQM on the wrong side; PML-N and PTI talked about encouragingly.

The stick it threatened to wield against one end of the political spectrum mattered less than the carrot it dangled in front of the other end of the spectrum. But that’s been parsed before.

Fast forward to the more recent past.

For the TTP to be squeezed, three sides need to align: the army, the political government and public opinion. But the TTP has figured out that those sides can also be played against one another.

Here’s how it’s worked. New government comes in mid-year and there are rumblings that the army will push to sort out the nastiest bits of the TTP.

So the need, from the TTP perspective, is to drive a wedge between the army’s intentions and the government’s will.

KP gets hit. Again and again. Soft targets, hard targets, anything and everything. Kitchen sink kind of stuff.

Punjab, which is running Islamabad, looks up at KP and blanches. We don’t want that here, Punjab, which is running Islamabad, thinks.

So dialogue is mooted. Wedge driven.

Now, the TTP refocuses. The targets narrow. Too much fire and brimstone rained down on a divided public leads to too much hostility.

So fewer market bombings and random acts, and more of the old stuff like going after cinemas and sundry guilty pleasures.

Song and dance, movies, theatre — there’s enough public ambivalence about whether they are culturally appropriate and religiously permissible to not trigger a wave of revulsion or anger when they’re hit.

If the soft targets are selected more discerningly, the hard targets are picked more liberally.

The army is Enemy No 1. The TTP is always aching to hit it.

Now, having driven a wedge and postponed an operation, the TTP can attack its nemesis. So it does. And all the army can do is limited retaliation.........

And the TTP 2.0 can do all of that because it’s figured us out. It knows what makes us tick.

@Secur @Armstrong @Dillinger @VCheng @Irfan Baloch @niaz @araz

 

[VCheng]

I found this quote specially important:

QUOTE: "But TTP 2.0 is different. It’s got inside the head of Pakistan. It’s figured out the pressure points and vulnerabilities and it’s learning to exploit them.

And that makes them more dangerous than a thousand suicide bombers or twenty thousand fighters.

Because, in messing with our heads, the TTP has learned possibly the only thing we couldn’t have afforded them to learn — that what it can’t get through force, it can get through manipulation." /QUOTE.

The only reason TTP could get inside the head is by invitation from within by a few rotten leaders, supported by untold tens of thousands listening avidly to their sect's maulanas, each dreaming of ascending to power, but in the end being forced to fight with each other.

This cannot end well.

 

[Meengla]

Too early to agree with Cyril's 'Taliban 2.0' analysis.
Despite the lurch toward the Right I don't think the Pakistani society--vast sections of it--even in K-P (Swat an example) is willing to accept even any modest concessions from Talibans to live a more secular/normal life. The Talibans are impatient to impost their medieval rule. They are over-reaching everyday as it is: By killing the Punjabi dominated security forces they are--even while not targeting Punjab--are most certainly alienating even the right-wing Punjabis. This ethnic dimension to the emerging development is not stated enough but is one of the most important factor in what is going to happen: PMLN is going to go after the Talibans with full force.

 

[Khan_patriot]

By killing the Punjabi dominated security forces they are--even while not targeting Punjab--are most certainly alienating even the right-wing Punjabis.

Dont try and make the fight between the TTP and the Pakistani nation along ethnic lines, this would be disastrous, need I remind you that the army is also composed of other ethnic races as well and when the TTP strikes it does not ask of someone is Pashtun, Punjabi or otherwise, a round pierces a Pashtuns skin as easily as it does a Punjabi's, dont spin off a racial shit fest, at least not now when the country needs to be united more than ever...

 

[Khan_patriot]

The Taliban have definitely evolved to a much larger capacity than the previously were at, they have now learnt the importance of psychological ops as well and know very well how to manipulate the gullible Pakistani masses to do what they want to some degree, they are smart criminals now and that is the most dangerous kind.....

 

[waz]

Dont try and make the fight between the TTP and the Pakistani nation along ethnic lines, this would be disastrous, need I remind you that the army is also composed of other ethnic races as well and when the TTP strikes it does not ask of someone is Pashtun, Punjabi or otherwise, a round pierces a Pashtuns skin as easily as it does a Punjabi's, dont spin off a racial shit fest, at least not now when the country needs to be united more than ever...

If you just count the FC corps and all the suicide attacks in KP Pakhtuns are the most numerous of their victims.

 

[Khan_patriot]

If you just count the FC corps and all the suicide attacks in KP Pakhtuns are the most numerous of their victims.

Yes, you are right, still some people try and put a racial spin on the TTP saying that it is for Pashtuns etc, this is just plain deception....

 

[Sedqal]

Cyril is giving too much credit to TTP.

 

[Secur]

Cyril is giving too much credit to TTP.

No , mate . Give credit where its due . Think of it , the TTP has gotten inside your head today , its manipulating and twisting the public's sentiments and opinions by making it all about the religion and the enforcement of Islamic law and hence attaining a certain legitimacy for its " righteous cause " from the religiously seduced radicalized masses . This is asymmetrical warfare and its extremely fluid . Accept it or not , you already have lost the war , this was more than evident from the desperate negotiations and bending over which continues till this day . How can the army fight these irregulars psychopath when your nation is confused to the core and a majority of it follows an extremist ideology and the media , politicians , Mullahs and the intellectuals are adding the poison to the mix by their extremely controversial statements every other day ? If the negotiations break down , the Taliban will not be blamed , try to understand that .

@VCheng This WILL NOT end well for the state of Islamic Republic of Pakistan being a realist .

 

[VCheng]

No , mate . Give credit where its due . Think of it , the TTP has gotten inside your head today , its manipulating and twisting the public's sentiments and opinions by making it all about the religion and the enforcement of Islamic law and hence attaining a certain legitimacy for its " righteous cause " from the religiously seduced radicalized masses . This is asymmetrical warfare and its extremely fluid . Accept it or not , you already have lost the war , this was more than evident from the desperate negotiations and bending over which continues till this day . How can the army fight these irregulars psychopath when your nation is confused to the core and a majority of it follows an extremist ideology and the media , politicians , Mullahs and the intellectuals are adding the poison to the mix by their extremely controversial statements every other day ? If the negotiations break down , the Taliban will not be blamed , try to understand that .

@VCheng This WILL NOT end well for the state of Islamic Republic of Pakistan being a realist .

I appreciate your honesty in assessing the situation, with which I concur.

 

[Secur]

I appreciate your honesty in assessing the situation, with which I concur.

Take my brotherly advice and never come back , the Benzodiazepine dependence has developed in this nation and I know it well , how hard is it to convince a patient to withdraw from it , knowing the syndrome and the pain - both physical and psychological that follows during the process despite telling him the benefits of withdrawing from that drug and the long term effects of BZD . This is the story of this nation - plain and simple .

 

[VCheng]

Take my brotherly advice and never come back , the Benzodiazepine dependence has developed in this nation and I know it well , how hard is it to convince a patient to withdraw from it , knowing the syndrome and the pain - both physical and psychological that follows during the process despite telling him the benefits of withdrawing from that drug and the long term effects of BZD . This is the story of this nation - plain and simple .

This is the beginning of the last few chapters in this story, may be?
===========================================================
(Thank you for your advice, but I am a dual national and therefore comfortable in both countries. )


Dollar-inspired mumblings - DAWN.COM

Dollar-inspired mumblings
BABAR SATTAR
2014-02-17 07:23:23

THE leaders in Pakistan seem possessed by magic. Is there another logical explanation for the deliberate effort of our rulers to nurture and strengthen the scourge of terror? The debate on whether the terrorists are misguided simpletons or vicious agents of our external enemies is now over. Led by Imran Khan we have concluded that those opposed to terrorists are enemies of peace. Can the noises made by these ‘dollar-inspired’ critics, demanding identification of redlines and non-negotiable issues, be anything other than crafty efforts to sabotage peace?

The prime minister confidently claimed in Turkey that the TTP would soon be the harbinger of good news. Within hours the TTP claimed mowing down another dozen or so policemen in Karachi (young men who had just committed themselves to serving the state). Why? In retaliation for action against terrorists in Peshawar and Swabi, says the TTP. The interior minister insists that talks and terror can’t go hand in hand. But they can go hand in glove, can’t they? The TTP can continue to fight and talk, and the state can continue to grovel and appease.

What is our obsession with large-scale operations anyways? Is it a part of our national psyche to act only when the enemy is banging down the gates? The Lal Masjid brigade was deliberately allowed by the state to emerge as a nuisance. It wasn’t nipped even after the fatwa that Pakistani soldiers if killed fighting Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas did not deserve a Muslim funeral. It wasn’t nipped in early 2007 when its vigilantes occupied a library or started enforcing morality in the neighbourhood.

And when it was nipped, it wasn’t done by shutting down water or electricity or using gas to snuff out residents, but through a massive military operation that is now used to illustrate the concept of ‘excessive use of force’ in the textbook on how not to do things. No efforts have been made since to sanitise militant-festered seminaries in the capital. No criminal responsibility could be pinned on Abdul Aziz who was released from detention and reinstalled in Lal Masjid. Aziz is now back in the business of declaring the constitution illegitimate and threatening the state with the wrath of suicide attackers in the TTP stockpile.

A former chief secretary of KP explains that Fazlullah too started out as a nuisance. By 2006 Fazalullah had managed to terrorise the local administration and had the support of around 200 fighters (150 locals and around 50 foreigners). The chief secretary decided to surround Fazlullah’s village and arrest him, which he claims could be accomplished easily at that stage. All he needed was 650 men from the police and the Frontier Constabulary. But despite throwing all his influence behind the plan, he could garner no support in Rawalpindi/Islamabad.

Eventually the Fazlullah problem grew bigger and graver and a massive military operation had to be launched to clean up Swat. We have followed the same pro-festering model to the dot vis-à-vis the TTP in North Waziristan, which is now the TTP’s emirate (drones being the only intrusion in exercise of its exclusive sovereignty). Meanwhile, the TTP-led terror syndicate has strengthened its ability to execute terror attacks across Pakistan and has begun claiming its pound of flesh in Karachi as well.

Can the present mode of negotiations produce anything other than terms of surrender to the TTP? Lets forget about the enforcement of Sharia for a moment and review the other uncontested demands. After having lost hundreds of soldiers and thousands of citizens, can the state withdraw troops from Fata and hand over all tribal agencies to the TTP? Can the state release over 4,000 prisoners accused of terror-related crimes across Pakistan or convicts, such as Aqeel and Imran Sadiq —masterminds of the GHQ attack?

The problem with peace negotiations is that they are not being conducted with a foreign state but an indigenous terror group. You can negotiate the release of prisoners after an interstate war because they go back to a different territory. How do you release terrorists who have admittedly masterminded or killed policemen, soldiers and citizens and have every intention of killing more once released? What legal or moral basis does the state have to prosecute or keep some criminals locked when others are literally allowed to get away with murder?

The negotiations under way have no future so long as Pakistan perceives itself as a sovereign nation state capable of exercising authority over its territory. There are simply no principles of law or morality that support any deal with the TTP other than committing more resources to mainstream Fata, which the TTP doesn’t care much about. The negotiations have no future also because for them to succeed the TTP would need to get out of the business of terror, which would deprive it of its financial resources and the power and influence it wields.

The negotiations have no utility because if the idea was to run a replay of Swat, it has backfired. The peace deal in Swat and its aftermath exposed Fazlullah’s outfit and caused enough revulsion to leash up public opinion in favour of an operation. But Fata is no Swat and this time TTP isn’t exposing itself either. The talks between pro-TTPers in power and pro-TTPers out of power have mainstreamed TTP’s noxious narrative and not isolated it.

Having dressed up herd-followers as leaders should we complain about lack of courage, conviction and clarity in their actions?

 

[M. Sarmad]

Yes, you are right, still some people try and put a racial spin on the TTP saying that it is for Pashtuns etc, this is just plain deception....

No its not just plain deception my friend . Did you notice that the video released by TTP claiming that they have beheaded 23 FC men is in Pashtu !! Both the people in the video (Omer Khorasani & Ihsan Ullah Ihsan) can speak Urdu and previously have recorded their messages in Urdu !! Then why Pashtu this time ? was this message supposed to be for the whole country or was it for Pakhtuns ?

Is he trying to tell the Pashtun that the continuation of violence against their kith and kin is the responsibility of the government and PA , not him?

There’s a strong possibility of that. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which rules KPK has, obliquely, managed to introduce this sentiment. It is voiced by the PTI-affiliated Pashtun youth on social media – i.e., it is the Punjabi-dominated Army that is responsible for continued bloodshed

Cyril is right ... The TTP 2.0 is much smarter my friend and they have proved to be very good manipulators so far

 

[acid rain]

Its so true that the TTP are running circles around the GOP and your media folks and their political guests in their chat shows are so confused that its shocking.

Lets look at an example, Imran Khan was the heart throbe of the Pakistani youth (50% of pakistani population) and the pakistani expats and look at what the TTP has reduced their icon into.

Another example is clearly the pro and anti division in the media, clergy, population, experts, politicians and the security forces that the talibanis have so effectively, not only caused but also have utilised to their benefit.

I hear people are actually justifying attacks on cinemas and on security forces...I also hear some pakistani expert say that, during talks attacks are justified because even during the peak of the world wars, the lleaders were still talking to each other.

I am surely surprised and a bit worried of what these cavemen are capable of achieving, and am surprised at the level they have stooped GOP. - its a bit scary.

Syrian war has taught them how to fight a war against a nation.

The author is right...they have you by the scruff of your necks.

 

[Secur]

This is the beginning of the last few chapters in this story, may be?

Bon ami , the abrupt withdrawal of a BZD results in deaths or serious psychiatric disorders mimicking symptoms . Do you understand what I mean ?

There in Rome , it might be possible that Nero was only fiddling while the city burnt , here in Pakistan the Neros of today are actually trying to fight fire with gasoline .