Your conjectures have zero value.
All organizations by western and arab countries which collect the polling DATA said unanimously that majority of Syrian people support Assad.
While opposition is divided into tens of parts ranging from atheists, nationalists, communists to religious and extreme religious people. In election, none of the opposition leader has even a slightest chance against Assad to win.
That is why US/Saudia are putting pre-condition for talks that Syrian people will not be allowed to choose Assad in the elections. Shame upon US/Saudia for robbing off the Syrian people from their right to choose or not to choose Assad.
Most Syrians back President Assad, but you'd never know from western media
Most Syrians back President Assad – but you'd never know from western media | Jonathan Steele | Comment is free | The Guardian
Suppose a respectable opinion poll found that most Syrians are in favour of
Bashar al-Assad remaining as president, would that not be major news? Especially as the finding would go against the dominant narrative about the Syrian crisis, and the media considers the unexpected more newsworthy than the obvious.
Alas, not in every case. When coverage of an unfolding drama ceases to be fair and turns into a propaganda weapon, inconvenient facts get suppressed. So it is with the results of a recent
YouGov Siraj poll on Syria commissioned by The Doha Debates, funded by the Qatar Foundation. Qatar's royal family has taken one of the most hawkish lines against Assad – the
emir has just called for Arab troops to intervene – so it was good that The Doha Debates published the poll on its website. The pity is that it was ignored by almost all media outlets in every western country whose government has called for Assad to go.
The key finding was that while most Arabs outside
Syria feel the president should resign, attitudes in the country are different. Some 55% of Syrians want Assad to stay, motivated by fear of civil war – a spectre that is not theoretical as it is for those who live outside Syria's borders. What is less good news for the Assad regime is that the poll also found that half the Syrians who accept him staying in power believe he must usher in free elections in the near future. ...