Swat Peace Deal - The Aftermath

[ajpirzada]

I enjoy your optimism but I unfortunately feel it won’t happen as you would hope.
The locals will stay looking after their own personal safety which means don’t criticise the hand that may kill you.

Note this from your source reference:
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan spokesman Muslim Khan had said that their men would surrender arms only after they see Sharia enforced in Malakand division of the Sawt Valley

This is the start of many excuses for them staying as is, fully armed and expanding.

i share the same fear but this time result will be different. locals wont sit quietly. u know the situation in fata where locals have formed lashkars to fight talibans. this support from locals was the main force behind military success in bajur. taking that as an example we'll see the samething happenin in swat. this is wat i have always been sayin and finaly gov has taken that step. now lets see how effective will this be and i think it will be.

 

[Ratus Ratus]

i share the same fear but this time result will be different. locals wont sit quietly. u know the situation in fata where locals have formed lashkars to fight talibans. this support from locals was the main force behind military success in bajur. taking that as an example we'll see the samething happenin in swat. this is wat i have always been sayin and finaly gov has taken that step. now lets see how effective will this be and i think it will be.

From my view point I would hope the PA has picked up a few CI attributes since the last encounters and the CI training the FC has managed to get helps.

Yes the locals have formed lashkars but at what long term expense till the PA and FC get there IF the GoP decides to actually act.
It is the lag time that is tactically critical in this place and then the efficiency of the ops.

 

[ajpirzada]

From my view point I would hope the PA has picked up a few CI attributes since the last encounters and the CI training the FC has managed to get helps.

Yes the locals have formed lashkars but at what long term expense till the PA and FC get there IF the GoP decides to actually act.
It is the lag time that is tactically critical in this place and then the efficiency of the ops.

CI trainin does matter but its not of much use when locals are not supporting you.
lashkars were formed only when the army went in and backed them. so i wont be expactin any lashkars unless army goes in which makes sence.
gov has taken a rit step by meetin locals demand and now i think they should be quick in making sure that taliban lay down their arms or otherwise result will be wat u have said lag time effect on efficiency of ops

 

[RabzonKhan]

Editorial: Sharia law and its saintly nepotism

April 16, 2009

When the leader of Tehreek-e Nifaz-e Shariat-e Muhammadi (TNSM) Sufi Muhammad was asked by a TV channel Tuesday if the Taliban, led by his son-in-law warlord Fazlullah, would be subjected to the new Islamic judicial system he had installed as Nizam-e Adl in the Malakand division, he bluntly dished out an exemption. All the murder and mayhem committed by the warlord and owned by him in the past is now outside the jurisdiction of the qazi courts. Sufi Muhammad did not wait for an Islamic verdict on it from the courts he has imposed on Swat; the Taliban have received a “pre-Islamic” immunity from Islamic law.

Sufi Muhammad then told the Taliban to disarm in accordance with the verbal pledge he had given to the NWFP government. The Taliban have come back with the rejoinder that the new courts should enforce sharia first. This means that till Swat is converted into a utopia by the qazi courts, his son-in-law will retain his weapons and do whatever he pleases with the exposed population of Swat which has trusted in the word of the Sufi. Will the Sufi start his characteristic “march” against his son-in-law with highly charismatic-looking companions thronging around him? Hardly.

The police in Lahore which wants the Pakistan Army to fight India rather than the Taliban should imagine the situation that will now arise out of the Sufi’s failure to curb his son-in-law. This saintly nepotism is going to cost Pakistan dearly. And don’t believe the federal information minister Qamar Zaman Qaira when he says that the “government will act against Taliban if they don’t disarm”. The fact is that it was only after the government failed to act that the NWFP government signed the “deal of the defeated” with the TNSM. And the government failed because the army did not succeed in putting down the mischief of the Taliban warlord.

To those who say that the ANP has cleverly given the Taliban the opportunity to make their play and disappoint the people of Swat, one can only say that the people made their decision the day they voted for the ANP. And the Taliban are not reliant on the will of the people for the imposition of their order. The people will have to accept the sharia now or die at the hands of the Taliban. And in the process the Taliban will take their wealth and their women as all such marauders have done in history.

 

[RabzonKhan]

Muslims should not lay down weapons: TTP

April 16, 2009

LAHORE: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Swat (TTP) spokesman Muslim Khan has said Muslims should take up arms instead of laying them down, a private TV channel reported on Wednesday. Khan told the channel that the Taliban were not subservient to the constitution of Pakistan but were committed to sharia. He said the Taliban had not captured the Pir Baba shrine in Buner, adding that they had only stopped the people from carrying out un-Islamic activities at the holy shrine. He said the Taliban had never talked of laying down arms, adding that it was the right of the Pashtuns to keep conventional weapons in their possession. “Pashtuns don’t have any tanks or helicopters, they only possess conventional weapons which all Muslims have been ordered to keep.” daily times monitor

 

[All-Green]

Muslims should not lay down weapons: TTP

April 16, 2009

LAHORE: Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Swat (TTP) spokesman Muslim Khan has said Muslims should take up arms instead of laying them down, a private TV channel reported on Wednesday. Khan told the channel that the Taliban were not subservient to the constitution of Pakistan but were committed to sharia. He said the Taliban had not captured the Pir Baba shrine in Buner, adding that they had only stopped the people from carrying out un-Islamic activities at the holy shrine. He said the Taliban had never talked of laying down arms, adding that it was the right of the Pashtuns to keep conventional weapons in their possession. “Pashtuns don’t have any tanks or helicopters, they only possess conventional weapons which all Muslims have been ordered to keep.” daily times monitor

See how they are jumping to make the conflict an ethnic one by mentioning Pashtuns whereas we all know how much love they have shown to Pashtuns or any other Pakistani so far...
they will always be the shifty ones these TTP goons and will always keep on finding excuses....
bottomline...do not put your faith in these people to change their behavior without the use of force...that is the only language they can understand.

 

[fatman17]

analysis: Endorsing surrender —Abbas Rashid

Within parliament as well as outside, there is an air of complacency overshadowed by confusion and fear. If ceding Swat was meant to appease the hunger of the militants, it has obviously served only to whet their appetite

Even before the ink has dried on the signed copy of the Nizam-e Adl Regulation 2009, the TNSM/Taliban leadership has seen it fit to clear up any confusion on the part of even the most optimistic among us.

It turns out that from their perspective, the agreement obliges them not to display arms — there can be no question of laying down arms, as this is not allowed by sharia. Second, the militants cannot be called to account for acts of violence or arson because religion obliges us to look to the future. Not least, it has been made clear that when the work of the militants is done in one place, they will move on to another area; which brings us back to why they will not dispense with their arms.

It is not as if any of this was hugely unexpected, but the sheer speed with which the militants have helped clarify the distinction between surrender and peace may have come as a bit of a surprise to some: at least 16 people were killed, including 10 policemen, and several others wounded after a suicide bomber slammed his explosive-laden vehicle into a police check-post in Charsadda on Wednesday.

It might in some ways have been better for President Asif Zardari to sign the document without bringing parliament into the proceedings. Even if we are to go by the support for this agreement on the part of the ANP, it is at best an agreement under duress. If the only defence against rampaging violence and destruction in the valley is an unequal agreement with the militants, so be it. But why give it the cover of endorsement by a majority in the National Assembly?

We must be thankful to PMLN MNA Ayaz Amir for registering his note of dissent during the session, followed afterwards by the PPP’s Sherry Rehman. And then there is the walkout by the MQM that kept the consensus from becoming quite complete. Such are the ironies of politics and history.

In any case, it serves no purpose to make a virtue out of necessity. Far too many voices now want to make us believe that the Nizam-e Adl Regulation meets a longstanding demand of the people of the area. It is, of course, always difficult to know what is in people’s hearts. But if it is a credibly articulated demand that we have in mind, then the elections just over a year ago tell a different story. The people of the area voted for liberal-secular parties such as the PPP and the ANP, and not the JUI, for instance.

And yet, within parliament as well as outside, there is an air of complacency overshadowed by confusion and fear. If ceding Swat was meant to appease the hunger of the militants, it has obviously served only to whet their appetite. On the other hand, there is still an acute lack of clarity about what is at stake. This is not about social repercussions and altered lifestyles. What is critical is the political implication of the Taliban’s rigid and intolerant interpretation of what it means to be a Muslim. Imagine the level of tension and violence in a diverse polity ruled by the code of conduct that the Taliban seek to impose. Will the state structure be able to withstand the ensuing conflict and chaos?

We are not doing too well as it is. Certainly, Balochistan is also a reminder of how the state has not delivered. The recent killing of three Baloch leaders can only add to the deepening sense of alienation in that province. There is much that has to addressed, and urgently, by way of equity and justice within and among the provinces. But a fired-up group of militants rapidly gaining momentum and traction combined with inaction on the part of our ruling elite is taking us towards disaster and not any closer to that crucial objective.

The government has made no real effort to educate people about the nature of the threat that confronts us. The electronic media is the most effective instrument for creating awareness to this end, at a popular level. The government could attempt this at least with the media it controls. But, for the most part, it is business as usual.

To add to our difficulties, the ‘war on terror’ origins of the conflict with its US imprimatur continue to confuse the issue even as our security personnel and law enforcement agencies are targeted, and scores of innocent people die almost every other week across the country as a result of suicide bombings and other terror attacks.

At the same time, India’s increasing presence in Afghanistan reinforces the perception on the part of at least our security establishment that it remains our only real enemy and to the extent possible all defence-related efforts must remain focused towards that end.

But we need to be careful lest we lose the war that has already been thrust upon us even as our strategists focus on the one we may have to fight sometime in the future.

There is still no real coordination at the provincial and the federal level within the framework of an effective counter-insurgency or counter-terrorism strategy. There is no provision for rapidly processing intelligence from different sources and for coordinated response. Nor, yet, is there a specialised force that can respond effectively to this very different kind of war.

But even if all such measures were in place, a war of this kind cannot be fought without the support of the people — who will first need to comprehend just what is at stake.



Postscript: The Obama administration’s promise of billions of dollars in development and military aid could help, but as importantly it needs to move ahead on its regional approach. At the same time, it should review its policy on drone attacks. These strikes may be partly successful in removing some key militant leaders but the killing of innocent people in the process cannot be condoned. It is, in any case, providing grist on a continuing basis to the propaganda mills of the Taliban and their supporters while deflecting attention from where it needs to be focused — our survival as an integrated society and state.

Abbas Rashid lives in Lahore and can be contacted at abbasrh@gmail.com

 

[S-2]

I think they deliver the message du jour as the need arises. There's flexibility to tailor the message as a class struggle against the corrupt elite, a religious struggle against the unbelievers and their minions, and/or tribal struggle if that will satisfy their temporal needs.

These cats blightly step around words without a care or any obligation to them. They clearly feel no need to deliver a firm platform and adhere to it. Frankly, the organizational design is so loose they couldn't anyway. There seems a very intuitive synergy among their forces that belies the issuance of a lot of formalized top-down diktat.

Pretty cool.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Implications of the deal​

Monday, April 20, 2009
Talat Masood

The passage of the controversial Sharia regulation for Malakand division once again brought global and national attention on how this would impact on Pakistan’s future. Swat has been caught in violence for more than two years. The people were desperate for peace as they were caught between the militants and the military. Rough estimates indicate that more than 1,500 were killed, thousands injured and 250,000 were displaced in the previous two operations that were launched by the military against the Taliban.

The Swat deal was based on political expediency and appeasement but the people wanted to give peace a chance and the secular ANP was fully behind it. Then, as neither the ANP government nor the military was willing to stand up for another round, this was the way out. In any case this is a war involving hearts and minds. People for their own reasons took a sigh of relief that the peace deal may at least provide them security and a modicum of justice even if that is medieval. Clearly, there was a popular demand for the promulgation of Nizam-e-Adl in Swat and this goes back to the 1990s when Mohtarmma Benazir Bhutto had agreed to it.

In these circumstances, on the surface the passage of Nizam-e-Adl bill by the parliament and its assent by the president should be considered a welcome development. The context of the current deal is however more complex and problematic. The government has yielded under compulsion at a time when Talibanisation is sweeping the country and overwhelming the state. Fazlullah and Sufi Mohammad have exploited this genuine grievance and has used it brilliantly to expand their growing power. It is for this reason that it would have grave implications if their ambitions are not contained and a comprehensive policy is not devised and put into operation to reverse the tide.

Seeing an opportunity the extreme fringe led by Baitullah Mehsud, Mullah Fazlullah, and others who are spearheading Talibinasation in Pakistan are likely to press on. And if Muslim Khan, the spokesperson of the TNSM, is to be believed jihad in perpetuity is their motto.

This is so obvious from the way they are going about the question of appointing Qazis and addressing administrative and legal issues. The operational part of the Sharia would be the most difficult part of the agreement. It is amply clear that Sufi Mohammed wants to retain the powers of having the final say in the interpretation of Sharia and appointments of Qazis and the final arbiter on all matters of Swat and perhaps of Malakand.

The spread of Taliban phenomena, albeit yet in pockets, is transforming the politico-social dynamic of Pakistan. Democracy and human rights will be the first casualties of Talibanisation.

If however peace was to prevail in due course as a result of the deal and the government regains control over the situation, then every effort must be made to integrate the militants into the political system so that there is a sense of ownership. In parallel, a major effort should be launched to assimilate the cadres into the economic and social mainstream. All this is only attainable if productive skills are developed and employment opportunities are created in these less developed areas. The key question is, does the government have the vision and the capacity to put this plan into operation?

It would depend on what stakes Fazlullah has in maintaining peace. If his agenda is to harbour the militant force, continue to expand his power base and spread radical Islam then obviously the peace deal is a sham and merely a ruse to consolidate and keep marching ahead. Frankly, this seems the most likely scenario. But if he is half as genuine and loyal a Pakistani that some of his apologists would want us to believe it provides him a unique opportunity to redeem himself and Swat could one day return to its original calm and serene beauty for everyone to enjoy.

There are profound social implications of this deal as well, notwithstanding the claims being made by the provincial government. With cinema, TV, art, music all banned the place is already becoming a cultural wasteland. If sports activity is all banned and even cricket considered taboo, the youth would channel their energies into destructive and militant activities. For women even visiting bazaars and going out unaccompanied is considered a sin. The most damaging aspect of Taliban ethos is the opposition to education, and especially of girls. If allowed to continue this would compromise the future of the younger generation and cannot be accepted under any circumstances. Bowing to such retrogressive forces would be an invitation to the dark ages.

A major contributor to Swat’s economy has been tourism that has virtually come to a standstill. No tourist would enter Swat if such stringent interpretation of Sharia bordering on draconian laws prevails.

How will Washington and New Delhi perceive our approach of pacifying the Taliban? Already the US has expressed its reservations and they are closely monitoring the situation. US view has always been that peace deals are counter-productive and end up strengthening the militants by allowing them to consolidate and expand their influence. They could be talked into it that unless there is massive military intervention with huge adverse consequences it was not possible to have handled the situation in any other way. Nonetheless, economic assistance, foreign investment and political support will only keep coming if the international community is convinced that Pakistan is committed in turning the corner and not willing to hand over the country to the Taliban.

Let us also keep reminding ourselves that nuclear power and Talibanisation are a dangerous mix that not even the best of our friends will tolerate.

The writer is a retired lieutenant-general. Email: talat@comsats.net.pk
Implications of the deal

 

[President Shah]

This deal was obviously done from fear. The locals there do not support the Sharia (Taliban style) from their hearts but support it with fear in their hearts. Same goes with the parliament and National Assembly, these so called leaders agreed to it because the militants were threatening them, only MQM was brave enough to say "no" to these creatures, i salute them. The deal will only be productive if the writ of the government is fully restored, if not then the deal is a scam. The Taliban has already shown their true colors, they said they will not lay down arms and will conquer the rest of the country with it, so the deal is full of sh**. These are the 4 main things in my mind the government should do:

Establish factories and institutes there to create jobs and opportunities

Create land reforms there (necessary because most ppl there do not own land and most of the land is owned by corrupt feudal lords who do injustice to the people) if there is injustice there, ppl will turn to the Taliban for justice

Monitor the Sharia courts that are being established there to make sure real justice is given and not Taliban style justice

Reduce rich-poor gap (for long-run)


Taliban

 

[wtf]

3 articles from "The Dawn" News paper

The first one says that Swat Sufi has refused to accept validity of superior courts
"Superior courts ‘un-Islamic’, says Swat Sufi: Govt asked to set up Darul Qaza by 23rd "
DAWN.COM | Front Page | Superior-courts-unIslamic,-says-Swat-Sufi-Govt-asked-to-set-up-Darul-Qaza-by-23rd

The second from TNSM chief says that Democracy is unacceptable in Islam

DAWN.COM | NWFP | No room for democracy in Islam: TNSM Chief

And the third, the editorial from Dawn, wonders if the deal was just a power grab and not implementation of Sharia since the militants have refused to prosecute the murderers amongst them according to Sharia
DAWN.COM | Editorial | Power-versus-law

------------------------------------------------------------
The first article seems to indicate that the Militants refuse to obey the laws of Pakistan. The second, that they seem to want to extend their power over the entire land and the third, that Sharia is just a cover for their ambition.

------------------------------------------------------------------
Agnostic Muslim, in another thread, this is what I said when you asked if giving in to Taliban is a good idea. I am not trying to say "I told you so", but I genuinely wonder if you still stand by your views

http://www.defence.pk/forums/nation...5027-nizam-i-adal-approved-12.html#post352642
http://www.defence.pk/forums/nation...5027-nizam-i-adal-approved-12.html#post352647

 

[ajpirzada]

Sufi’s public meeting lifts climate of fear in Swat

Monday, April 20, 2009

By Rahimullah Yusufzai

PESHAWAR: By holding a big public meeting in Mingora in the restive Swat district on Sunday, Maulana Sufi Muhammad contributed to overcoming the climate of fear still prevailing among the people and inspiring them with hope.

However, he added to the uncertainty by reverting to his familiar tactic of setting deadlines for his demands to be met. Two deadlines were set, April 23 for doing away with the existing courts manned by civil judges and May 19 for setting up Qazi courts under the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation in all seven districts of Malakand division and Kohistan district of Hazara region. In addition, May 19 would also serve as the one-month deadline for establishing Darul Qaza, or appellate court, for Swat and rest of Malakand division.

Having brought peace to Swat and obliged the government, Sufi Muhammad now feels justified in demanding Shariah-based system of justice. This has been his goal for almost three decades and he is convinced that there can be no better opportunity for pushing his agenda. The government once again has little choice but to accept his demands and that too within the stipulated time.

Journalists at the Grassy Ground, the venue for the Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e-Muhammadi (TNSM) public meeting, estimated the crowd at 20,000 to 25,000. The TNSM members and supporters claimed a much higher attendance. But all agreed that it was an impressive show of strength by Maulana Sufi Muhammad, who returned to the central town of Mingora after having packed up his “peace camp” there and left Swat along with hundreds of his followers on April 9 in protest against the delay by President Asif Ali Zardari and the federal government in signing the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation. It was a triumphant return for the maverick Maulana who eventually forced the president to sign the law.

Maulana Sufi Muhammad has held bigger gatherings at the Grassy Ground, which is used by young men from the twin towns of Mingora and Saidu Sharif for sports activities. His 1994 public meeting, held prior to an armed uprising for enforcement of Shariah in Swat and other parts of Malakand division, at the Grassy Ground was much bigger. But the one held on Sunday had greater importance as it was organized at a time when Swat is slowly recovering from two years’ of violence and bloodshed. For so many Swatis and participants from other adjoining districts, particularly from Upper Dir and Lower Dir, to gather at one place despite the fear of suicide bombing was truly remarkable. Political parties, which due to insecurity in the NWFP now hold gatherings in closed premises, would surely envy Sufi Muhammad’s fearlessness and his crowd-pulling capability.

Sufi Muhammad, ageing and in poor health, spoke inarticulately for about 45 minutes in Pashto and reporters faced difficulty in understanding his words. As expected, he repeated his assertions about democracy and existing courts in Pakistan being un-Islamic. It wasn’t the first time that the cleric from Maidan in Lower Dir district generated controversy. He manages to do so whenever he speaks.

Maulana Sufi Muhammad has his own simplistic vision of Shariah. If he had his way, he would force the judges, or Qazis as they are known in Malakand division, to sit on the floor and hear cases brought to them by litigants. Lawyers have no business in his scheme of things and Qazis ought to be made accountable if they delay judgements in cases pending in their courts. Shariah for him revolves round dispensation of justice. Education, health, socio-economic issues hold secondary importance for him. The Qazi courts that are being set up under the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation might start delivering speedy justice but this isn’t the only demand and expectation of the people of Swat and elsewhere in Malakand division. They expect a lot more from the Shariah that Sufi Muhammad is insisting would henceforth be the supreme law in the area.

Sufi’s public meeting lifts climate of fear in Swat

 

[ajpirzada]

i wonder wats gonna happen. one thing is for sure that he has got a big following if not massive. the only thing which bothers me is when he says democracy and other judicary is unislamic.
btw did u guys read that news which says talibans in swat have started organising love marriages. if u love someone, just go to them and they ll get u married after consultin ur parents. kind of wierd

 

[waraich66]

Constitution of Pakistan already have shariah law.Problem is implementation of shariah law .Sufi had misunderstood that shariah can be implemented through power .
It is long term struggle and society should be ready for implementation of shariah law.In SWAT people are not ready for shariah law.
I think Sufi M. will creat more problem for local people and Pakistan .

 

[ajpirzada]

Constitution of Pakistan already have shariah law.Problem is implementation of shariah law .Sufi had misunderstood that shariah can be implemented through power .
It is long term struggle and society should be ready for implementation of shariah law.In SWAT people are not ready for shariah law.
I think Sufi M. will creat more problem for local people and Pakistan .

im not defendin anyone but it appears that ppl of swat are ready for shariah law. accordin to the news article i have posted above, close to 30000 ppl gathered to listen to him. also he discouraged ppl from raising weapons against the gov.
but yes he might create problems for pakistan.