There is no point to a Waziristan operation until the government is comfortable that it can handle the refugees.
Second, how to minimize the refugees? Can it be done in any way that will preclude most of the innocents from lifting themselves lock, stock, and barrel from their homes?
I don't know. The U.S. and Iraqi armies struggle still with an insurgency in their midst in the semi-urban lands between the Euphrates and Tigris and, yes, there has been long-term IDPs as well as many who fled to Jordan.
Some have come home. Not all.
It is preferable but, clearly, it can't be done where absolute open mid-intensity conventional combat is taking place and this is a real concern. Waziristan is the final redoubt. The militants will, IMHO, defend this area with all of their being and, yes, it shall be fortified.
"Where" is the question? Everywhere? The hills and villages fortified? Certainly the hills. Maybe the villages.
I don't know what's really known by your nat'l and operational intelligence agencies but the FIRST thing I'd look at is a serious intelligence collection plan to identify tactical and operational intelligence requirements and then allocate assets of one form or another to start answering specific questions-to include refreshers on the tribal structures and relations among one another.
Each battle commander entering a specific area will need to know who the local players are...in detail along with other related information from the mundane (weather and drainage) to engineering (bridges-good and bad along with road conditions) mobility operations to improve transit.
Once collected and collated, you need a solid public information AND psychwarfare ops plan. You've got to win the battle of the message before the first troop hits the neighborhood and the first bullet fired.
As Petraeus and others say- the best bullet is often the one NOT fired.
Only then would I consider entering there.
As to American pressure, not from THIS American until these issues above have been satisfied AND SWAT/Buner have been handled, people returning, and forces allocated for those areas beyond the local cops to garrison these reaches.
I have no illusions that you will NOT get them all in SWAT. Too many ways to avoid combat if they wish. They worse it becomes for them, the more they'll do so. Better to live to fight another day.
So you can talk a lot about Waziristan or not but I'd be hesitant to move before my ducks were lined up in a row.
JMHO.
Thanks.
