More Russian Nuclear Monitoring Stations Went Silent Days After Blast, Test-Ban Official Says
Interruption in nuclear data deepens mystery around explosion in northern Russia
Updated Aug. 19, 2019 6:43 pm ET
The number of Russian nuclear-monitoring stations that have gone silent has doubled to four, an international arms-control official said, heightening concerns among observers that Russia is attempting to conceal evidence from an explosion at a missile-test site this month.
Russia monitoring stations designed to detect nuclear radiation at the towns of Bilibino and Zalesovo stopped transmitting data on Aug. 13, Lassina Zerbo, the executive director of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Organization, told The Wall Street Journal on Monday.
Those data disruptions occurred three days after two other monitoring stations, at Dubna and Kirov, which were closer to the site of the Aug. 8 accident, went silent, as the Journal reported on Sunday.
“Experts continue to reach out to our collaborators in Russia to resume operations as expediently as possible,” Mr. Zerbo wrote in an email.
The U.S. and other world powers have a variety of means to monitor military tests in Russia as well as Moscow’s compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits nuclear tests globally.
In addition to American spy satellites and the ability to intercept communications, there are hundreds of monitoring stations around the world that measure seismic shifts, sound waves and radioactive particles.
But nuclear experts widely see the interruption in the data from the four monitoring stations as the Kremlin’s attempt to minimize information about the weapon that was being tested, which President Trump has said is a nuclear-powered cruise missile. Experts said they don’t believe the device was carrying a nuclear warhead or that Russia’s aim in suspending the data transmissions was to hide any clandestine nuclear-weapons test.
Russia may also be trying to minimize publicity about the extent of the plume from the missile-test explosion and the radioactive elements it contains.
Mr. Zerbo’s organization, which receives data from monitoring stations around the world, has projected the potential path of the plume, which it depicts as moving toward western Russia before shifting south and then spreading to the east.
Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted on Monday that there has been no spike in radiation following the incident and that experts are monitoring the situation. “There is no threat and no rise in the radiation level there,” Mr. Putin said during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron in France. “Preventive measures are taken so nothing unexpected happens.”
Following the blast, Russian authorities were slow in releasing information about it. A local authority briefly reported a spike in radiation levels before removing the information from its website.
Residents of the city of Severodvinsk near the blast site rushed to pharmacies after news of the incident to stock up on iodine, which protects the thyroid gland against absorbing radiation. A Russian news outlet, Baza, published a video showing ambulances said to be transporting victims to Moscow, with the vehicles’ doors sealed in film and drivers wearing hazmat suits.
The four Russian monitoring stations that have stopped transmitting data are what Mr. Zerbo’s organization calls radionuclide sites that detect radioactive particles. They extend from Dubna, which is north of Moscow, to Zalesovo in Siberia to Bilibino in the Russian northeastern region of Chukotka, near Alaska.
Russian officials initially told the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization that the sites that stopped transmitting were hampered by “communication and network issues.” They haven’t told the group when they expect them to be operational again.
A Russian monitoring station that detects radiation at Ussuriysk—located in Russia’s Far East near Vladivostok—still transmits data, said Mr. Zerbo, who has declined to speculate on the reasons for the interruption.
The loss of data comes as the future of arms control agreements is in flux, including that of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
That accord has been signed by 184 nations. It has yet to formally take effect because the required number of nations haven’t ratified it.
Russia, which has signed and ratified the accord, insists it is rigorously adhering to the treaty. The U.S. signed the treaty during the Clinton administration. The accord was never approved by the Senate, but the U.S. hasn’t conducted a nuclear test since 1992.
While the accord isn’t legally in force, the global network of monitoring stations, which would be used to verify compliance, is functioning and funneling data to Mr. Zerbo’s organization, which shares it with signatories to the treaty.
Steve Andreasen, who was the top National Security Council official on arms control during the Clinton administration, said that the system for monitoring adherence consisted of four different technologies, was international in scope and didn’t depend on the “good faith” of an individual country to continuously provide data.
“In the case of the Russia nuclear accident in August, two of these four technologies—seismic and infrasound—reportedly detected the explosion and reported it promptly,” he said.
Opponents of the treaty complained that the loss of data meant that Russia had simply switched off the monitoring stations. They noted that U.S. intelligence has previously alleged Moscow had violated its commitment by conducting nuclear tests with very low explosive power.
“The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty doesn’t serve U.S. national interests,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) said. “President Trump should unsign the treaty and end this charade.”
http://web.archive.org/web/20190820.../images/B3-ET977_fallba_4U_20190819180914.jpg ; https://archive.fo/9sGRE/87fb6e68db7baa4d22fdc59ba4e7c9778bdb3cd4.jpg
▲ 1. Four Russian nuclear-monitoring stations have gone silent since a blast at a missile-test site this month.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190820...ter-blast-test-ban-officials-says-11566232680
Two days is a long time. The bigger question, to us, is why did no stations in Russia detect the explosion on August 8?
All four monitoring stations that have detected the explosion (FINES, ARCES, HFS and IS37) are in European Scandinavian countries (red pins). Using distance as a proxy for likelihood of detection, four stations in Russia might have been expected to also detect it. AFAIK, none did.
http://web.archive.org/web/20190820055532/https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECWQ0fAVUAAiDWE.jpg ; https://archive.fo/KHMcg/46f190b82083d442afe8ed1b833fb8bd917bced4.jpg
▲ 2. No Russian monitoring stations have detected the 8th August 2019 explosion.
