Secret Memo of Zardari to Adm. Mike Mullen

[arihant]

Are you aware of the situation going in Pakistan?? We have a democratic government right now, but the elected president is asking a foreign military to intervene in Pakistan's internal matter. And not just any matter; he is discussing the issues of NUCLEAR SECURITY with them.

Thats what I said, if you Army more powerful than democratic government is going to be worst. The fear of Zardari from Army and ISI shows that both the organization are out of control and they work independent, without any responsibility.

 

[President Camacho]

Cyril Almeida made an interesting observation, that for an administration that won't officially acknowledge drone strikes or the 14 page report Kayani delivered to Obama, outlining Pakistan's position on Afghanistan, Mullen acknowledged the existence of the memo rather quickly.

Could the US actually be hoping for a military coup to 'shake things up' regionally, and give it more leverage over Pakistan by rallying the international community against 'military dictatorship in Pakistan'?

I figure that Mullen quickly acknowledged the existence of the memo because Mansoor Ijaz appeared to reveal a lot more than just the existence of the memo. He even posted his convo with his PA man, and threatened to go way further by revealing names.

Mansoor is way better versed in diplomatic affairs than is the actual diplomat - Haqqani. Mullen and all know very well that Mansoor could do a lot of damage and yet save himself, as appeared in the reactions of that PA nerd in his BB messages. Besides, many are of the idea that Mansoor may still be very ready to come out with some more damning stuff, so at the moment it is more of a wait and watch going on with all the concerned parties.

Secondly, I feel quite contrary to what you are asking/hinting at (in your second statement). A coup d'état has a greater chances of success and acceptance if it is sudden, and surprising. The whistle, blowing out loud for the whole world to see and prepare beforehand, makes such an action illegitimate in the eyes of the outer world.

Meaning... if the coup took place before any other nations could react, then the Army would be easily accepted as the sole representative of Pakistan. However, now that the world already knows (or thinks) that the Army wants to take over, it will be more difficult (not impossible, of course) and more risky for the Army to prove its right as the legitimate representative of the nation.

I hope you understand what I am trying to say here.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Thats what I said, if you Army more powerful than democratic government is going to be worst. The fear of Zardari from Army and ISI shows that both the organization are out of control and they work independent, without any responsibility.

Or Zardari is just delusional and paranoid ...

 

[foxbat]

Or Zardari is just delusional and paranoid ...

Somehow I would tend to believe the views of the president of a country(even Pakistan) rather than anonymous internet forumers, who feel differently...specially since a few of Zardari's predecessors have suffered the same fate that Zardari was fearing for himself..

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I figure that Mullen quickly acknowledged the existence of the memo because Mansoor Ijaz appeared to reveal a lot more than just the existence of the memo. He even posted his convo with his PA man, and threatened to go way further by revealing names.

Mansoor is way better versed in diplomatic affairs than is the actual diplomat - Haqqani. Mullen and all know very well that Mansoor could do a lot of damage and yet save himself, as appeared in the reactions of that PA nerd in his BB messages. Besides, many are of the idea that Mansoor may still be very ready to come out with some more damning stuff, so at the moment it is more of a wait and watch going on with all the concerned parties.

Secondly, I feel quite contrary to what you are asking/hinting at (in your second statement). A coup d'état has a greater chances of success and acceptance if it is sudden, and surprising. The whistle, blowing out loud for the whole world to see and prepare beforehand, makes such an action illegitimate in the eyes of the outer world.

Meaning... if the coup took place before any other nations could react, then the Army would be easily accepted as the sole representative of Pakistan. However, now that the world already knows (or thinks) that the Army wants to take over, it will be more difficult (not impossible, of course) and more risky for the Army to prove its right as the legitimate representative of the nation.

I hope you understand what I am trying to say here.

I understand your argument, in the highlighted part, but from the US perspective, such a situation would be exactly what they would want, since the Military would be under tremendous international pressure after such a coup, and therefore my argument that the US is perhaps trying to force the PA's hand here in making such a mistake ...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Somehow I would tend to believe the views of the president of a country(even Pakistan) rather than anonymous internet forumers, who feel differently...specially since a few of Zardari's predecessors have suffered the same fate that Zardari was fearing for himself..

The President and his ambassador to the US have pretty much discredited themselves with this memo - the fear of a coup might be justified given precedence, but that does not make actions taken as a result of that fear, rational, feasible or sensible.

As Cyril Almeida and some others have pointed out, the military was completely on the back foot in those days, and facing a lot of criticizm, and many commentators were surprised that the GoP was not acting to take advantage of the situation and undercut the military's influence - now we know why - Zardari and his coterie were to busy with paranoid conspiracy theories and treasonous requests for foreign intervention in Pakistan.

 

[regular]

Cyril Almeida made an interesting observation, that for an administration that won't officially acknowledge drone strikes or the 14 page report Kayani delivered to Obama, outlining Pakistan's position on Afghanistan, Mullen acknowledged the existence of the memo rather quickly.

Could the US actually be hoping for a military coup to 'shake things up' regionally, and give it more leverage over Pakistan by rallying the international community against 'military dictatorship in Pakistan'?

Yes! absolutely they are looking for unstability and disruptions within the country as a pretext to strike our Nuklear assets. But I guess it will be suicidal for them too cuz nobody can predict the outcome of such step against the Pakistan's Nuklear assests.
Is quite possible they have to cry over spilt milk for their entire lives...

 

[foxbat]

The President and his ambassador to the US have pretty much discredited themselves with this memo - the fear of a coup might be justified given precedence, but that does not make actions taken as a result of that fear, rational, feasible or sensible.

As Cyril Almeida and some others have pointed out, the military was completely on the back foot in those days, and facing a lot of criticizm, and many commentators were surprised that the GoP was not acting to take advantage of the situation and undercut the military's influence - now we know why - Zardari and his coterie were to busy with paranoid conspiracy theories and treasonous requests for foreign intervention in Pakistan.

Any evidence that the it was a paranoid conspiracy theory? Or if the request to protect the democratically elected from wannabe dictators was treasonous ?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Any evidence that the it was a paranoid conspiracy theory? Or if the request to protect the democratically elected from wannabe dictators was treasonous ?

Actually, it is the responsibility of those alleging fears of a military coup to offer evidence supporting their fears - I can't prove a negative.

And offering a potentially hostile foreign power a say in the running, staffing and operations of national security institutions, along with offers of carrying out illegal and unconstitutional assassinations, raids and operations on Pakistani territory, is definitely treasonous.

 

[foxbat]

Actually, it is the responsibility of those alleging fears of a military coup to offer evidence supporting their fears - I can't prove a negative.

And offering a potentially hostile foreign power a say in the running, staffing and operations of national security institutions, along with offers of carrying out illegal and unconstitutional assassinations, raids and operations on Pakistani territory, is definitely treasonous.

any evidence of the bold part??

also, has anyone asked for evidence or has Kayani denied these allegations?

 

[President Camacho]

I understand your argument, in the highlighted part, but from the US perspective, such a situation would be exactly what they would want, since the Military would be under tremendous international pressure after such a coup, and therefore my argument that the US is perhaps trying to force the PA's hand here in making such a mistake ...

Yes, from the view point you are offering, it would be a quick, and total win for the US, provided - the sole purpose of the US is to turn the PA into a weak, defunct army overnight (They may desire so in long run, but not too quickly).

However, the disclosure of the memo would make the PA apprehensive about taking on the government. If the US really wants the PA to get embroiled in domestic politics, all along when it is warring with insurgents on the western border already, then why would they alarm the PA by acknowledging the existence of the memo? It would work against their (US's) objective of letting the PA go ahead with the coup. I mean, the PA is not made of fools who would just get irritated and angry at the government w.r.t the memo, and even after the exposure, they would exercise the coup d'état.

Another point to note is that, (it is basically my understanding) - If the PA does somehow successfully take over the government, then it will not only become extremely unpopular (popularity ratings must be real low because of the series of incidents that took place from May 1 to Sept 20), it will also be overstretched. The question is, would the Americans, or anyone (esp Indians), ever want an unpopular, overstretched, and weakened Army overlooking the nukes? The hardliners (extremists) within the Army might want to ride the power their own way.

I personally don't think the US, Pakistan, or any other country, would want such a scenario.


Edit...

As Cyril Almeida and some others have pointed out, the military was completely on the back foot in those days, and facing a lot of criticizm, and many commentators were surprised that the GoP was not acting to take advantage of the situation and undercut the military's influence - now we know why - Zardari and his coterie were to busy with paranoid conspiracy theories and treasonous requests for foreign intervention in Pakistan.

Had to add this part of yours. Cyril Almeida is very precise and very correct with the analysis that the military was completely on the backfoot. If there were any ideas of coup going on, why would A. S. Pasha voluntarily present himself to the Parliament, and even offer his resignation? (Unless of course, there's some strong differences going on between Pasha and Kayani, as mentioned by Retd. Gen. Talat Mansoor.)

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The memo was unsigned but said it was being submitted by “the members of the new national security team who will be inducted by the President of Pakistan with your support in this undertaking.” Ijaz said the names included Husain Haqqani and his two predecessors as ambassador, both retired military officers.

In Pakistan, a deep civil-military divide - The Washington Post

So, this is interesting - former Pakistan Ambassadors to the US, and retired senior military officers to boot, allegedly involved in the conspiracy.

Former COAS Jehangir Keramat and General Mehmud Ali Durrani?

---------- Post added at 09:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:29 AM ----------

Foxbat:

Pakistani opinion on this issue appears to be close to unanimous:

Even commentators sympathetic to him and the government said that asking for U.S. assistance in forestalling a coup would be an unpardonable offense. The Express-Tribune editorial treated Haqqani’s role as a disappointing fact, referring to it as “galling” and saying that the controversy will only “strengthen the military’s hand in castigating the civilian government as sell-outs to the Americans.”

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

any evidence of the bold part??

also, has anyone asked for evidence or has Kayani denied these allegations?

3. The new national security team will implement a policy of either handing over those left in the leadership of Al Qaeda or other affiliated terrorist groups who are still on Pakistani soil, including Ayman Al Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, or giving US military forces a "green light" to conduct the necessary operations to capture or kill them on Pakistani soil. This "carte blanche" guarantee is not without political risks, but should demonstrate the new group's commitment to rooting out bad elements on our soil. This commitment has the backing of the top echelon on the civilian side of our house, and we will insure necessary collateral support.

 

[foxbat]

3. The new national security team will implement a policy of either handing over those left in the leadership of Al Qaeda or other affiliated terrorist groups who are still on Pakistani soil, including Ayman Al Zawahiri, Mullah Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, or giving US military forces a "green light" to conduct the necessary operations to capture or kill them on Pakistani soil. This "carte blanche" guarantee is not without political risks, but should demonstrate the new group's commitment to rooting out bad elements on our soil. This commitment has the backing of the top echelon on the civilian side of our house, and we will insure necessary collateral support.

How are these any more illegal or unconstitutional than the killings of TTP terrorists in Army operations ?? Or is it that the attempt to remove the distinction between Good and Bad Taliban automatically become treason in Pakistan ??

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

How are these any more illegal or unconstitutional than the killings of TTP terrorists in Army operations ?? Or is it that the attempt to remove the distinction between Good and Bad Taliban automatically become treason in Pakistan ??

The Army is authorized by Parliament to conduct those operations, on Pakistani territory.

There is nothing in the constitution legitimizing a GoP allowing foreign military operations on its soil.