Related to the quoted post:
[. . .] in Washington and European capitals,
officials anticipate that the Russian military will reverse its early losses, setting the stage for a long, bloody insurgency.
[. . .] Officials have been reluctant to discuss detailed plans, since they’re
premised on a Russian military victory that, however likely, hasn’t happened yet.
[. . .] Ukraine’s
allies are planning for how to help establish and support a
government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers.
[. . .]
weapons the United States has provided to Ukraine’s military, and that continue to flow into the country,
would be crucial to the success of an insurgent movement
[. . .] take up a $10 billion
[. . .] The
possible Russian takeover of Kyiv has prompted a flurry of planning at the State Department, Pentagon and other U.S. agencies in the event that the Zelensky government has to flee the capital or the country itself.
[. . .] United States diverted some military aid to Ukraine that it had planned to send to Afghanistan, but that package mostly included small arms, ammunition and medical kits
[. . .] As the
Russian military struggles with logistical challenges — including fuel and food shortages — Waltz anticipates that the Ukrainians will repeatedly strike Russian supply lines. To do that, they need a steady supply of weapons and the
ability to set improvised explosive devices, he said. “
Those supply lines are going to be very, very vulnerable, and that’s where you really literally starve the Russian army.”
[. . .] Continuing a resistance campaign
will require continued clandestine shipments of small arms, ammunition, explosives and even cold-weather gear. “Think about the kinds of things that would be used by
saboteurs as opposed to an army repelling a frontal invasion,” Moulton said.
Officials remain cautious about overt support for a Ukrainian insurgency lest it draw NATO member countries into direct conflict with Russia. In Moscow’s eyes, support for a Zelensky government operating in Poland could constitute an attack by the alliance, some officials warned.
[. . .]
successful insurgencies. Veterans of such conflicts say that
the Ukrainians so far have demonstrated the key ingredient. “The number one thing you have to have is people on the ground who want to fight,”
[. . .] If Russian and Ukrainian negotiators who have been meeting near the border in Belarus reach some settlement, that will likely diminish the momentum for an insurgency and support for it [
so the dreamers of protracted insurgency will have a problem with a successful negotiations and would want them to fail ?]
[. . .] “As occupation progresses and extends for a longer time, what can start out as a more centralized resistance often changes into smaller resistance groups or units. It is not a negative thing,” she said. “In fact, smaller groups allow more resilience.”
[. . .] as stocks of ammunition dwindle and the Russian military extends its encirclement of major cities. . . . Russian occupation forces will try to squeeze supply pipelines and cut off cities.
[. . .] Ukraine should be preparing its citizens for combat in cities . . . they should establish safe areas underground to survive. . .place snipers on rooftops.
[. . .] Putin might attempt to reduce Ukraine “to a much smaller state.” . .western Ukraine would remain independent. The other territories would be incorporated into Russia, occupied, or declared independent states, as the Kremlin has already done with the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. But Russia’s ability to impose that vision is “most improbable,” the diplomat said, given the profound anger in Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
Another similar article:
...The list indicates that
as early as December, the Pentagon was equipping Ukrainian fighters...
