Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[thetutle]

He will never allow this to happen as long as his alive. I am talking from a stragetic and security measure level as Finland is a major security concern in Kremlin.. He will not allow NATO to gain that large northern border which is the largest border Russia has with anyone on the western side and difficult to defend in a future war with NATO.. You can write this down and bet your house on it

He may not wish for this to happen. But Finland is a sovereign state and will make its own decisions. If you think Russia will decide who joins NATO, I fear you will be surprised quite soon.

 

[Vergennes]

lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498290289731067905

 

[jhungary]

There are no need for that. That "3km" convoy was already bombed repeatedly, and suppressed by artillery. It's too deep behind Russian lines, but I believe losses there are severe.

Instead, there are free airstrike opportunities. This following screws strategic options with these small spear pushes, and destroys units with more certainty because they already got very, very extended, and gorillas/territorials may pick them off later at small cost, and grab their equipment.

After that, Ukrainians will need to find out weaknesses in Russian deployment, and use aviation against that.

I repeat, Kiyv area now is a fortress which soaks 1 BTG per day with ease, and Russians are afraid to do anything big there now. Moreover, local mobile defence, and Baraktars are already seemingly doing good at destroying flanking pushes.

Instead, something more daring, and unexpected can be done now. What about bombing Belo? I believe NATO got all Belo air defences mapped now.

Or, the they can thoroughly cleanup Kharkiv surround, push off Russian artillery, and unfold the front there again. I see a lot of artillery there, hide & seek urban battles in suburbs, but not much units capable of holding the line with serious armour/firepower.

South is a big question mark. I believe Russians have air defence from Crimea there now. NATO's eyes should know.

@jhungary I think it's playing into Ukrainian side to not to let the flow of battle to slowdown. Russians will not let them exploit their initial messups for long.


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As with my last post, It is quite clear form the get go for the Russian to lead a "North/South" charge and link up between Northern arm with the southern arm form Crimea .So I would have to say the the keys for Ukrainian defence is going to be to defend both Dnipro (in the south) and Kyiv (in the north)

The problem is, Russia as of now is already seriously behind. Current intel suggested a 96-120 hours delay. Objective that supposed to be taken on the first day is still in Ukrainian hand. Mariupol, which specifically were supposed to be deposed in the first minute of battle, still stay with Ukraine., Kyiv, a day 2 at most objective is still stand. Dnirpo are virtually untouched. Kharkiv is not yet fallen. There are even news that Antonov Airport are under assault by Ukrainian army. All these are the strategic objective, and they are not yet taken, in fact, the only "Major Milestone" for Russia is taken Berdiansk, a city of less than 100,000. That is not a good time table.

So two things is going to happen. The war is going to have to speed up, which mean more Brutal Russia response, which in turn mean more resolve on Ukrainian resistance. And another thing is going to happen is Russia is going to pour more resource into Ukraine.

Now, the problem is, what people see the problem Russia is suffering is command and control problem and logistic problem and it is not going to solve itself just because you need to hurry up. In fact the entire system failed because they were in a hurry to begin with. So that have to be rethink. All these tanks that ran out of fuel cannot be happen again, and LOGPAK are going to be delivered into the right place on time. That will stress the entire campaign.

On another thing, more unit got thrown into the fray will magnify the C&C problem and also the logistic problem. That would have to be an issue, how are you going to pipe in reinforcement? Send them to where they needed the most? That is THE problem.

Another issue is that Russia need to think about what happen after they defeated the Ukrainian Defence Force in a conventional battlefield. There are VERY HIGH chance that Ukrainian are going to wage an insurgency toward Russia. Which I can assure you whatever left of that Russian force is not going to be enough to deal with. You also need to think of how to contain such insurgency, now, traditional wisdom would suggest you need to get the entire country in control, and then squeeze the insurgency out. But Ukraine is a country that have 1/3 the population of Russia, I would say except for the Eastern Ukrainian, almost all of them are going to be hostile to the Russian. And I can't see any way Russia can conquer the entire Ukraine, which make Western Ukraine more important than Eastern Ukraine, because this is where it border Poland, Romania and Hungary, that entire region needed to be occupied, otherwise Western Ukraine would become enclave of Ukrainian insurgency activities. Which mean the entire troop deposition as of now need to shift West once Ukraine Defence Force is defeated. Do they even have time to do that? Unlike what we did back in Iraq, we enjoy a honeymoon period, and then half life set in, and the entire country turn on us. In this case, there are no half life, there are no honeymoon, the entire population of Ukraine is going to be hostile to Russian.

And finally, the economy sanction factor, unlike the other, this is one giant swoop. It basically destroy Russian economy and its banking system. And it will take them ages for China to restore it for Russia, on the other hand, would China want to? Because that would include a lot of financial backing, which at the current rate, mean backing a rouble that is currently down at the toilet. Effectively it would probably cheaper for Russia to adopt Yuan as official currency.

 

[Titanium100]

He may not wish for this to happen. But Finland is a sovereign state and will make its own decisions. If you think Russia will decide who joins NATO, I fear you will be surprised quite soon.

You will be in for a major surprise in few years time when the Russian tanks including the Belarussians, Wagner group, Chechens, Tatars, mercerneries, DPR, LPR rebels etc etc and the whole caravan rolls into Finland's cities

 

[Khanate]

'Ukrainian first, African last'

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498281490718810116

 

[Iron Shrappenel]

ziolensky is releasing convicts with combat experience

What Europeans think it sounds like lol

 

[Maarkhoor]

FactCheck: This is a brave Palestinian girl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497840712821329923

This is Palestinian girl and soldiers from Israel.

 

[Khanate]

ziolensky is releasing convicts with combat experience

Is he taking notes from the Taliban??

 

[thetutle]

and so on and I just happened to cross train with Heavy Weaponry, I can use a M2, M240B, Carl Gustav 84mm, AT-4, Javelin, Stinger and 120mm mortar. I know how to use TOW missile because my first MOS is 19A...

How good is the javelin in this type of situation? Can you reply take out a tank at 500m, 2km or 3km? in this terrain? Is this weapon a game changer for a professional insurgent army in this scenario? If you have say 3 launchers and 3 targets, can they target all 3 and take them out at the same time?

 

[Titanium100]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498314069345984517

 

[NotSure]

You do know truth are just going to go away because you refused to talk about it, right? And you are just living in your delusional world.

That is correct. The truth, facts on the ground currently established by russia, are not going away with all your cheap talk about "nato intel", weak russian military, bs about a russian timeline and so on.

At the first day the russian VDV had captured the Hostomel Airport as a bridgehead and now only in a half a weak all ukrainian big Towns are surrounded or even captured.

The effect will grow in the next days exponentially. Remember my words.

And on the other side we have the "civilised" anglosaxons, bombing Iraq 2003 into ruins, after >10 years of hard sanctions and constant bombing in the no fly zone. After the massive aggression in the beginning of the 90s. And they still needed 3 Weeks to even reach Baghdad ...

 

[Khanate]

Diplomacy with President Putin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498318222961094656

 

[nang2]

As with my last post, It is quite clear form the get go for the Russian to lead a "North/South" charge and link up between Northern arm with the southern arm form Crimea .So I would have to say the the keys for Ukrainian defence is going to be to defend both Dnipro (in the south) and Kyiv (in the north)

The problem is, Russia as of now is already seriously behind. Current intel suggested a 96-120 hours delay. Objective that supposed to be taken on the first day is still in Ukrainian hand. Mariupol, which specifically were supposed to be deposed in the first minute of battle, still stay with Ukraine., Kyiv, a day 2 at most objective is still stand. Dnirpo are virtually untouched. Kharkiv is not yet fallen. There are even news that Antonov Airport are under assault by Ukrainian army. All these are the strategic objective, and they are not yet taken, in fact, the only "Major Milestone" for Russia is taken Berdiansk, a city of less than 100,000. That is not a good time table.

So two things is going to happen. The war is going to have to speed up, which mean more Brutal Russia response, which in turn mean more resolve on Ukrainian resistance. And another thing is going to happen is Russia is going to pour more resource into Ukraine.

Now, the problem is, what people see the problem Russia is suffering is command and control problem and logistic problem and it is not going to solve itself just because you need to hurry up. In fact the entire system failed because they were in a hurry to begin with. So that have to be rethink. All these tanks that ran out of fuel cannot be happen again, and LOGPAK are going to be delivered into the right place on time. That will stress the entire campaign.

On another thing, more unit got thrown into the fray will magnify the C&C problem and also the logistic problem. That would have to be an issue, how are you going to pipe in reinforcement? Send them to where they needed the most? That is THE problem.

Another issue is that Russia need to think about what happen after they defeated the Ukrainian Defence Force in a conventional battlefield. There are VERY HIGH chance that Ukrainian are going to wage an insurgency toward Russia. Which I can assure you whatever left of that Russian force is not going to be enough to deal with. You also need to think of how to contain such insurgency, now, traditional wisdom would suggest you need to get the entire country in control, and then squeeze the insurgency out. But Ukraine is a country that have 1/3 the population of Russia, I would say except for the Eastern Ukrainian, almost all of them are going to be hostile to the Russian. And I can't see any way Russia can conquer the entire Ukraine, which make Western Ukraine more important than Eastern Ukraine, because this is where it border Poland, Romania and Hungary, that entire region needed to be occupied, otherwise Western Ukraine would become enclave of Ukrainian insurgency activities. Which mean the entire troop deposition as of now need to shift West once Ukraine Defence Force is defeated. Do they even have time to do that? Unlike what we did back in Iraq, we enjoy a honeymoon period, and then half life set in, and the entire country turn on us. In this case, there are no half life, there are no honeymoon, the entire population of Ukraine is going to be hostile to Russian.

And finally, the economy sanction factor, unlike the other, this is one giant swoop. It basically destroy Russian economy and its banking system. And it will take them ages for China to restore it for Russia, on the other hand, would China want to? Because that would include a lot of financial backing, which at the current rate, mean backing a rouble that is currently down at the toilet. Effectively it would probably cheaper for Russia to adopt Yuan as official currency.

If I were Putin, I would leave the western Ukraine untouched. Take the eastern Ukraine and use Dnieper river as the border to divide the country. Ukrainians would still have a place to call their country, which is where most Ukrainian-speaking folks live anyway.

 

[jhungary]

How good is the javelin in this type of situation? Can you reply take out a tank at 500m, 2km or 3km? in this terrain? Is this weapon a game changer for a professional insurgent army in this scenario? If you have say 3 launchers and 3 targets, can they target all 3 and take them out at the same time?

The reported range for a Javelin missile is 2500m, but you are not going to hit that far, the optimal kill range is between 800 - 1000 meters.

Depends on how you use them and more importantly, how you hide them, it could be a devastated weapon if the enemy uses armor for COIN. But I don't think Russia is going to heavy on tank when they occupied Ukraine. More likely they will be staffed by light skin vehicle. if this is the case, IED is probably the weapon of choice.

You can engage 3 tanks if you have 3 operators using them at the same time, they are 1 launcher 1 missile weapon.

 

[That Guy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1498314069345984517

It's not "west", mass reports tend to auto remove or ban. Not social media tend to have this feature. Meaning a bunch of trolls can easily do this.