Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[F-22Raptor]

back in February, they said Russia could maintain its war for two weeks before starting to run out of equipment. Problem is, like the Russian peoples, we are also lied to

I never saw that. Any defense enthusiast knew that Russia had a s**t ton of armor and artillery.

 

[kingQamaR]

The New York Times reported that Ukraine citizens in Kherson gave coordinates of a Russian base of operations to Ukrainian artillery about 12 miles from Kherson, and the base was completely destroyed killing about 200 Russian soldiers and mercenaries.

This was only a few days ago.




The Russians are losing at least 200-300 soldiers per day. Their losses are catastrophic.

Out dated tactics after flawed strategy, against a better trained and equipped opponent, even if numerically inferior, is very risky indeed and inevitably costly

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535594135352131585

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535595833797779457

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535636675069624320

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

3.5 month have passed.

Following corrections are needed to be done:

What we have found so far: Russia fights on the cheap. They expend tons of ammo per day, but nearly all of that is very old Soviet stock. T62 probably has lesser value today than an NLAW rocket used to blow it up. DPR cannonfodder, and forcefully drafted Russian minorities also cost them close to nothing. Winter will be a big trial for them.

Ukraine aims to raise armed force of 1m with tooth to tail ratio of 50%. It will be 80k-100k trained soldiers, and 200k ok soldiers, and 200k bad soldiers.

What is Russian warplan? DPR force is down to 20k troops to injuries, desertion, and kias. Intense recruitment under a gunpoint is used to restore numbers, and they die in horrific numbers.

Russians also brought 40k-50k total manpower reinforcements to compensate for horrific losses of their best troops. Hastily recruited "volunteers," and gangpressed youth can't operate weapons, so they will only be used as infantry.

So, they are facing 80k Russian regulars, and at most 60k DPR/LPR + mercenaries. This way Russia has partially recovered the infantry losses, but specialist losses are still there. My assessment, since they are saving infantry, and are using mercs + DPR to storm cities, regular Russian forces are still very short on normal infantry. My guess, in total, Russian side has less than 50-60k infantry resource.

Their personnel resupply options are also very strange. They are mostly recruiting middle aged men from social bottom, so we have to expand their recruitment pool seeing that their "military age male" definition now spans into fifties.

Another very interesting observation is that how much of them were a net-drain on Russia, or close to no economic contributions. Russia has quite low labour force participation rate.

Gang pressing mostly happen outside of big cities news tell. So we are not seeing Russians trading labour force for soldiers yet.

I would say they will last 12-16 months before they have to think if they can go all in. Their total mobilisation pool now stands at 1.2m thanks to middle aged men. They already drew 200k out of it, and got 80k irreversible losses KIA+irrecoverable WIA.

Russia has a few million unemployed bums sitting around with nothing to do. Send them to Ukraine where they can fight for land and wealth and snatch Ukrainian women for wives. Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine. That gives them very good numbers game.

As other noted, the West has stalled with arm deliveries at the most critical moment, and gave Russian enormous advantage in firepower which they used to kill a lot of the most experienced part of Ukraine military in Donbas.

Russian side losses are huge in Donbas, but they are not losing their specialists there. Ukraine on other hand cannot realise its numeric superiority there because they are so inferior in long range, raw volume of fire, and geography.

In other words, Russian strongest side met Ukrainian weakest one.

Warfighting power of the infantry is worth comparison: DPR+mercs are actually outperforming infantry of regular Russian forces no matter how bad it still is. Russian regular infantry is very bad.

I guess the West is pretty worried about depleting their arms stock in Ukraine in case China invades Taiwan and the West has nothing left in their arms depots to help Taiwan fight back. Just a hunch.

 

[jhungary]

As other noted, the West has stalled with arm deliveries at the most critical moment, and gave Russian enormous advantage in firepower which they used to kill a lot of the most experienced part of Ukraine military in Donbas.

Russian side losses are huge in Donbas, but they are not losing their specialists there. Ukraine on other hand cannot realise its numeric superiority there because they are so inferior in long range, raw volume of fire, and geography.

In other words, Russian strongest side met Ukrainian weakest one.

Warfighting power of the infantry is worth comparison: DPR+mercs are actually outperforming infantry of regular Russian forces no matter how bad it still is. Russian regular infantry is very bad.

From what I am seeing with my own eyes. I have two conclusion being made.

1.) NATO didn't do 1/10 they should have done. That part is true. If I were Jan Stoltenberg, and I mean it when I say I will help Ukraine defeat Russia, I will probably start sending MLRS on day 7, you don't really need to study Soviet Doctrine to know Artillery is Russian game, if you defeated Russian Artillery, they would not have any means to attack you without suffering heavy lost. Which mean if that was me, I would ask US, UK or any NATO country to donate their SPG, MLRS and guns.

Ukraine need ~100 MLRS, 1000 Artillery piece of any kind (155, new and old, SPG or Towed), and they need them 2 months ago, not 10 MLRS and 100 M777. US alone have thousand of old M109 and M198 sitting around doing nothing, That is something they should have sent to Ukraine almost on Day 1 after they have appraised the situation. Ukrainian are dying in Ukraine because those guns are not in Ukrainian hand, it is still sitting somewhere in National Guard Armory in the US.

2.) Ukraine is putting their best troop out of the war. Like 2014, for whatever reason Ukrainian have pull their best Brigade out of the East. Of the 8 Brigade serving the East, only 3 are from Regular Army. (53rd, 54th and 128th Assault Brigade) the rest are either National Guard Brigade or Brigade that raise recently. The OG Brigade were not deployed to the East (93rd, 95th, 1 TB and 10 mountain were not deployed to the East with the exception of 93rd saw some action near the rear of Donetsk.

Not sure if this is intentional or the Ukrainian refused to move them to war and initiate localised defence, but those Brigade are very well armed and Battle Hardened, they should be deployed to the East instead of sitting in Kyiv (95th) and Chernihiv (1TB). 92 and 93 saw some action in Kharkiv, but they aren't really used as a mobile force.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535656144156299265

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535656144156299265

It's also a good way to deplete Western arms stock in Ukraine. Eventually America will have to send all their F-16 and A-10 to Ukraine where they will be destroyed. Once the West has no more arms left, China invades Taiwan and the West cannot protect Taiwan anymore because all their arms would have been destroyed in Ukraine.

From what I am seeing with my own eyes. I have two conclusion being made.

1.) NATO didn't do 1/10 they should have done. That part is true. If I were Jan Stoltenberg, and I mean it when I say I will help Ukraine defeat Russia, I will probably start sending MLRS on day 7, you don't really need to study Soviet Doctrine to know Artillery is Russian game, if you defeated Russian Artillery, they would not have any means to attack you without suffering heavy lost. Which mean if that was me, I would ask US, UK or any NATO country to donate their SPG, MLRS and guns.

Ukraine need ~100 MLRS, 1000 Artillery piece of any kind (155, new and old, SPG or Towed), and they need them 2 months ago, not 10 MLRS and 100 M777. US alone have thousand of old M109 and M198 sitting around doing nothing, That is something they should have sent to Ukraine almost on Day 1 after they have appraised the situation. Ukrainian are dying in Ukraine because those guns are not in Ukrainian hand, it is still sitting somewhere in National Guard Armory in the US.

2.) Ukraine is putting their best troop out of the war. Like 2014, for whatever reason Ukrainian have pull their best Brigade out of the East. Of the 8 Brigade serving the East, only 3 are from Regular Army. (53rd, 54th and 128th Assault Brigade) the rest are either National Guard Brigade or Brigade that raise recently. The OG Brigade were not deployed to the East (93rd, 95th, 1 TB and 10 mountain were not deployed to the East with the exception of 93rd saw some action near the rear of Donetsk.

Not sure if this is intentional or the Ukrainian refused to move them to war and initiate localised defence, but those Brigade are very well armed and Battle Hardened, they should be deployed to the East instead of sitting in Kyiv (95th) and Chernihiv (1TB). 92 and 93 saw some action in Kharkiv, but they aren't really used as a mobile force.

For every artillery America can send to Ukraine, Russia can build 10 artillery. In terms of arms, Russia will always have the advantage in numbers over Ukraine. Not to mention Russia population outnumbers Ukraine population by 4 times and that is massive numbers advantage.

 

[PakFactor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535656144156299265

Yawn

 

[jhungary]

Ukrainian side: 100k WIA+KIA civilians, and military combined.

Seems about right, the latest estimation is 25000 KIA with 3 times more wounded. That's before Civilian being counted tho.

For every artillery America can send to Ukraine, Russia can build 10 artillery. In terms of arms, Russia will always have the advantage in numbers over Ukraine. Not to mention Russia population outnumbers Ukraine population by 4 times and that is massive numbers advantage.

EXactly how stupid were you??

Is it every child in Russia will fight in Ukraine?? Also. Russia do not have the capability to make new Artillery, not at that pace you think of anyway. While US have more than 1000 UNUSED stock sitting in National Guard Depot doing nothing.

I am not talking about sending new stuff like M777 or HIMARS in 1000s, I am talking about sending the old M198 and M109 mixed with a portion of New Stuff. If NATO country all donate a large portion of "ready" stock, it will drown Russia in term of Sheer equipment. NATO is a 30 member country, if every country donate an average of 50 artillery piece, you will have 1500 piece on hand.

Again, please do not quote me again, I have no appetite to discuss fantasy situation with you.

 

[jhungary]

Russia certainly has the manufacturing ability to manufacture hundreds of artillery a year. Think Malva. It's on a truck chassis. Very cheap and quick to manufacture.

2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer | Military-Today.com

The 2S43 Malva is a new Russia's truck-mounted howitzer. It is fitted with a 152 mm ordnance and is based on a BAZ 8x8 chassis. This artillery system was first publicly revealed in 2020.

www.military-today.com

Sure, if US wanted, US can send 400 M109 and 400 M198 in the next month, are you saying Russia is capable of making 8000 artillery tube in 30 days??

Again, please do not quote me again.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Sure, if US wanted, US can send 400 M109 and 400 M198 in the next month, are you saying Russia is capable of making 8000 artillery tube in 30 days??

Again, please do not quote me again.

Russia certainly has the manufacturing ability to manufacture hundreds of artillery a year. Think Malva. It's on a truck chassis. Very cheap and quick to manufacture.

2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer | Military-Today.com

The 2S43 Malva is a new Russia's truck-mounted howitzer. It is fitted with a 152 mm ordnance and is based on a BAZ 8x8 chassis. This artillery system was first publicly revealed in 2020.

www.military-today.com

Not to mention China assists Russia with military hardware production. China has immense industrial power. With China's backing, Russia manufactures military hardware much faster than the West can. Ukraine war depletes the West's military hardware and this enables China to invade Taiwan when the West's arms depots are all empty with all their arms used up and depleted in Ukraine war.

 

[jhungary]

Russia certainly has the manufacturing ability to manufacture hundreds of artillery a year. Think Malva. It's on a truck chassis. Very cheap and quick to manufacture.

2S43 Malva Self-Propelled Howitzer | Military-Today.com

The 2S43 Malva is a new Russia's truck-mounted howitzer. It is fitted with a 152 mm ordnance and is based on a BAZ 8x8 chassis. This artillery system was first publicly revealed in 2020.

www.military-today.com

Not to mention China assists Russia with military hardware production. China has immense industrial power. With China's backing, Russia manufactures military hardware much faster than the West can. Ukraine war depletes the West's military hardware and this enables China to invade Taiwan when the West's arms depots are all empty with all their arms used up and depleted in Ukraine war.

Is this guy for real??

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Sure, if US wanted, US can send 400 M109 and 400 M198 in the next month, are you saying Russia is capable of making 8000 artillery tube in 30 days??

Again, please do not quote me again.

Sure. But Ukraine has 0 oil production because Russia wrecked Ukraine's one and only oil refinery. To fuel such as mighty war machine needs lots of oil. America is an oil importer. America has no oil to spare. Senate will never approve a 100 billion aid package for Ukraine that includes that much oil for Ukraine war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535690115988832256

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535679888971145216

 

[ZeGerman]

You're attributing policies of former states which no longer exist to the Russian Federation. By that logic you might as well blame on the current German regime, the Third Reich's invasion and occupation of the USSR as a result of which over 20 million Soviet citizens were killed. In terms of overall destruction and casualties, this alone will top anything you could possibly accuse Russia of. I wouldn't even need to mention earlier invasions of Russia by western powers such as the First French Empire.

Is Scholz talking about how sad he is when the Third Reich fell apart? Or how he compares himself to the former german empire heroes and should return germany to that former glory? Is Scholz a former gestapo?

Cause Putin is….
And russian troops often fly soviet flags….

If we purely use the russian federation we have chechnia, syria, ukraine on the list.

Addressed already. They're reciprocating EU and US support for local opposition in Russia. In Chechnya and elsewhere, armed head-cutting terrorists also enjoyed assistance from NATO member states.

No they picked up where the soviets left off. Europe was regularly moving toward softer stance on russia, that did not stop russias constant meddling however.

You're repeating a statement without substantiating it. The initial blood test could have been manipulated too.

The initial test (and the mans face) are proof. Russia also has a bit of a history of poisoning opponents.
Ofcourse a heavily Pro russian is going to go against that.

Well the regimes I qualify as such do happen to be allied with (and moreover pretty much subjugated to) the zionist entity.

Antisemetic propaganda.

More like 3000-4000 KIA on Russia's side. Versus up to five to ten times that number of Ukrainians.

Hahaha not even the russians really believe that number.

A notorious neo-Nazi regiment, Azov, had thousands of fighters deeply entrenched in Mariupol, yes. Not Russian propaganda but something western media and regimes have acknowledged as well.

There are tens of millions fleeing ukraine…and not to the “liberator” russia….ukranian expats in europe are protesting against russia.
Kiev, kharkiv, mykolaiv…russia is facing heavy resistance almost everywhere.

All nazis i assume? Laughable.

These few thousands (and of which only a part is extreme right…so were talking even lower numbers) are a mere poor excuse Russia is using for this war of agression. “Denazifying” whole of ukraine for a handfull of nazis.
Hell Wagner probably houses more…

1) Adherents of far right ideology are disproportionately represented among the Ukrainian armed forces. There are numerous ultra-nationalist if not neo-Nazi controlled units in addition to Azov. Pravy Sektor, Sloboda and others each have their own distinct detachments.

A heavy minority of the 20.000 dead ukranian soldiers and many thousands of dead ukranian civilians.
But russia will pay…this is a nation defining moment for ukraine. Millions upon millions now hate their former “brother” nation.

2) They are far more obtuse than the normal units of the Ukrainian armed forces in their insistence on prolonging this already lost war. Hence why we've seen so many video recordings of regular Ukrainian troops complaining about their situation and resisting deployment orders. Morale among these is in shambles.

if morale was in shambles we would see a collapse like in afghanistan or iraq…

For it to be used as a staging ground for subsequent destabilization of the Russian Federation.

Russia vowed to respect its security and sovereignity.
Europe was inching closer to russia (nordstream)

Russia is far from a victim here. Its hilarious that you paint it that way when russia just tries to annex ukraine…

I am against illegal and/or illegitimate, imperialist military intervention.

Well…that is exactly what this is…

These operations had nothing to do with removing dictators or averting large scale crimes, but were following purely expansive, hegemonist motivations, among which the dismantling and balkanization of targeted nation-states. And as a matter of fact Iraq, Syria, Libya are all worse off than before NATO started bombing them.

Syria by far most casualties are due to assad/russia.

Did you compare the deaths of afghanistan russia/us invasion yet?

I was talking about contemporary Russia, not the USSR or Warsaw Pact states.

The eastern European countries dont think that russia changed much….putin is proving them right.

Sweden and finland even had enough.

By the way one of the most famous dissidents of the USSR (if not the single most famous one), prominent novelist Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, stated that given the removal of the 'communist' system, now the focus of former eastern bloc nations ought to be on countering the current threat that is liberalism. How right he was.



I trust the many credible sources, eastern and western, which reported it.

Nothing written. And besides…its the “russian federation” now right?
Any verbal promise was with the “sovjet union” and you just stated all that history goes out of the window….

The federation did promise to ensure ukranian security /sovereignity however….

Also you handpick wich sources you want to take along….your not fooling anyone with your supposed “balanced” research….

Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says "No"

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it well known his antipathy towards NATO, claiming the Alliance took advantage of Russian weakness after the collapse of the Soviet Union in violation of promises allegedly made to Moscow by Western leaders. Steven Pifer argues that no such promises were...

www.brookings.edu

Whatever Russia did in this regard was a consequence of NATO's broken promises.

A certain action does not justify any/every following reaction…especially as russia/sovjets broke many dozen of promises themselves. Before nato existed even.

NATO has been encroaching itself along Russia's borders, not the other way around.

Funny way of describing how russias former colonies come running to our defensive pact.

Plus, Moscow would have been perfectly content with countries such as Ukraine observing some form of neutrality comparable to Austria's position during the Cold War. But that's not something Washington would accept, seeing as all indicators suggest the US regime would settle for nothing less than the destruction of Russia - if Moscow was suicidal enough to keep letting them act freely.

Moscow could not accept ukraine choose closer eu ties. Maybe russia should try diplomacy and trade instead of abusing and agressing their former “subjects/warsaw pact” all the time.

That helps keeping them from hating russias guts.

Uh, not really. The ceasefire was first violated by the Ukrainian regime. That's the decisive point in international law.

Both sides can violate a ceasefire multiple times. That is not decisive justification to annex an entire nation.

And still…Most civilian deaths are due to seperatist attacks. Seperatists russia has knee deep meddling in.
So enough with this “stopping donbass genocide” bullshit propaganda

If they leave Russia alone, forget about balkanizing her, then she will have no need to intervene militarily anywhere to her west.

Eastern block made up their mind. And clearly think differently then some iranian propagandist….i kinda think they have more knowhow and experience….

Mariupol had twice the population of Fallujah and many more defending fighters, all better armed, better trained than the Fallujah resistance. And said defenders in Mariuopol were using residential buildings as shields much more systematically because they happened to despise locals, which they had actually been repressing for eight full years prior to the start of the war.

Everyone is familiar with the Odessa massacre, where Ukrainian ultra-nationalists burnt alive over 40 civilians trapped inside the Trade Unions building, but in Mariupol a far bigger massacre took place around the same time, costing the lives of an estimated 400 to 500 Russian-speaking civilians.

Russia has levelled multiple cities. From grozny to syria to now in ukraine. Many thousands of civilian deaths.

It is clear who is the “bigger evil” here.

And then there's the entire rest of the military campaign. Russia did not drop as many bombs on Ukraine as NATO forces did on Iraq.

- - - - -

They fire 50.000 artillery shells a day now.

If we take that into account then russia is throwing more explosives then usa did in iraq….
Civilian deaths are likely higher already too.

And why do ukranians need to suffer under an expansionistic russia with dreams of former empire….because of american attack on iraq?

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535680388521201666

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535656600471584769

https://twitter.com/x/status/1535685376303579137