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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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its not about threatning to nuke people. but about understing the dynamics of escalation dominance.

The Russians have absolute escalation dominance.

the west has thrown virtually everything it feasibly could at Russia. They have waged all out economic warfare, Armed the ukie army to the teeth with modern weapons and training, and are even probably covertly using special forces..

while their media campaign is the other arm of their military machine.

Russia has not even escalated yet to the point of using vacuum bombs en masse. let alone start popping nukes.

If you really think Russia will just accept defeat and humiliation in this existential battle for them. Before exausting all their escalatory options? you are an absolute naive fool..

What is the point of spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build the world biggest and most formidabble nuclear arsenal. To not be able to even leverage it enough to defend your borders from encroachment?


everybody has their "redline" or "hill they will die on". The Russians have made it clear that Ukraine is the hill they will die on. Is the west prepared to die on the ukrainian hill with Russia? ?????????????????


No dude.

They will not die on this hill.

Even if Putin was crazy enough to order a nuclear strike, it will NOT be carried out as there is no existential threat to the existence of Russia as an independent state.

Despite what some people here may think, Russians are not prepared to die along with their families when they can live to fight another day.

Stop and think before you post next time.
 
its not about threatning to nuke people. but about understing the dynamics of escalation dominance.

The Russians have absolute escalation dominance.

the west has thrown virtually everything it feasibly could at Russia. They have waged all out economic warfare, Armed the ukie army to the teeth with modern weapons and training, and are even probably covertly using special forces..

while their media campaign is the other arm of their military machine.

Russia has not even escalated yet to the point of using vacuum bombs en masse. let alone start popping nukes.

If you really think Russia will just accept defeat and humiliation in this existential battle for them. Before exausting all their escalatory options? you are an absolute naive fool.

What is the point of spending hundreds of billions of dollars to build the world biggest and most formidabble nuclear arsenal. To not be able to even leverage it enough to defend your borders from encroachment?


everybody has their "redline" or "hill they will die on". The Russians have made it clear that Ukraine is the hill they will die on. Is the west prepared to die on the ukrainian hill with Russia? ?????????????????
You are again very dramatic. It`s not a NATO-Russian war, but a Ukraine-Russia war. The west is helping Ukraine with infantry(!) weapons and humanitarian aid. The value of this help in USD is worth about the same as the yearly polish export of furniture. Mediocrate sactions were put against Russia, not too damage EU/US economy too much and increase the cost for Russia. Military options aside, there are much more serious sanctions, that can be introduced, but this would be a escalation and would be felt more in the EU.

If Russia wants to nuke russian speaking ukrainians to defend borders from "encroachment", this means that the Russia is very affraid of what ? Independend Ukraine ? Democracy ? Reallity ? If you have nukes, your territory is virtualy untouchable. It`s not existential battle for Russia, but rather for current elite in Moscow. Well, they started it and are now in deep in s***
 
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Its not about who committed more rapes, do you think hundreds of thousands of rapes is a small amount? And they did systematically raped but not just openly but also in an organised manner, they coerced women into prostitution by different ways.
The rape did not only happen during the war but during the occupation of Germany and Japan. Women were raped in Japan and also coerced into prostitution in an organised and systematic manner.
Australian soldiers posted in Japan during Occupation after WW2 raped women patients and staff of an entire hospital.
Us troops gang raped an innocent iraqi women who they picked from her house by saying they want to interrogate her and then gang raped her in a US base and made video of her and even uploaded it on Internet. People only came to know about it because they uploaded the video, how many rapes may have happened in Iraq which never came out.
I don't

As I said, we can agree to disagree on how much rape or how systematic it was, but you cannot compare war rape unless you are comparing to historical figure, and with those, Russia/Soviet Union are probably leading the chart by a very large margin.

In case you didn't know, WHO or any influential organizations basically serve American interests. Did WHO or UN say anything about the 'white helmet' chemical attack US and UK staged? If you still cite US-controlled agencies' words to back you up, you're beyond hopeless, ridiculous, and pathetic.
That's what the American say, WHO is influenced by the Chinese for not reporting COVID in a timely manner and even to a point hiding the true situation.

Also WHO is better and more non-biased toward either side than Ukrainian source or Russian source.

And finally, this is no longer the 19th century or 20th century, we have satellite image that are commercially available, it would not take a few click to go check out the building that was being bombed by Russian. Which mean evidence to show the actual bombing is not really something that is really hard to find. There are tons of photo of hospital being bomb and you can check the aftermath either on the ground (By people taking snap shot) or from Satellite image. If you don't believe what WHO said, you are more than free to check it out yourself.

And LOL white helmet and chemical weapon.
 
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I don't

As I said, we can agree to disagree on how much rape or how systematic it was, but you cannot compare war rape unless you are comparing to historical figure, and with those, Russia/Soviet Union are probably leading the chart by a very large margin.
The point is both Allies and Soviets committed rapes numbered in hundreds of thousands and when you bring in the coerced prostitution by the allies which is also rape the number of rape by allies will not be less than Soviets.
 
the US didn't do too great in Iraq or A-stan either.
Let us do the math here.

1. Russians have lost more (regular) troops and equipment in Ukraine in 4 weeks than Americans in several countries in 20 years.

2. Americans conducted military operations on a much bigger scale than Russia ever did. NATO fought and dismantled Al-Qaeda Networks and the sort in several countries. NATO also took over Iraq in a blitzkrieg and closed the chapter of Saddam Hussein and his political system. NATO closed the chapter of Qaddafi administration in Libya as well. The so-called War On Terror lasted 20 years and was concluded in 2021.

I admit that a modern war is NOT easy to fight but Indians and Russians have something in common - much talk but a lot less to show on the ground.

Russia can fight one war at a time and there are some countries which can defeat it in a conventional war - not many but some. Pakistan might be able to handle Russia in a conventional war as well.

USA is best equipped to fight a conventional war in the world and it is preparing to fight a nuclear war as well. USA is already capable of defeating a regional nuclear power in a war.
 
About Kharkiv

You are not looking at a complete conquering of the entire Ukraine. Not with 200,000 troop that was original planned, not with the situation now. The strategic goal is to cut Ukraine in half and take the eastern half without pretty much a fight. Which the axis of advance would be along the Centerline between Kyiv and Dnipro and the southern arm if Russia want to cut Ukraine from accessing the sea of Azov and Black sea.

Not every road junction are important to your military campaign. Kharkiv is far from the Military objective and close to the border, effectively you can start with Kyiv and then push toward Kharkiv would be a better way to go than to push from Kharkiv then move West, because you are pushing Ukrainian into your line, not going over the Ukrainian line to take control of the Ukrainian city, that just not making any strategic sense. It would be a easier war to cut off the western part from the get go and then attack Eastward, as Russia itself is the entire blocking position. All of the Eastern Ukraine border Russia. So to push West instead of go center then push east, you are making your invasion harder for no particular reason. Essentially

If Russia wanted the entire Ukraine, that's another story, but then they would not have start with war with 200,000 troop, considering the population of Kyiv itself is 4 millions, 200,000 wouldn't cut even to occupy the entire Kyiv Oblast.

Also, Historical value is for both of them are ethnic Russian, as they were both "Historically Russian" so you get some sort of "Morale" victory to your people by saying "I save/liberate a bunch of ethnic Russian from Ukrainian abuse or what not" That does not do anything with the strategic goal, and it is not even a morale victory now many people in Kharkiv are actually fighting the Russian.

Why do I believe Kyiv is important to Demilitarize? First, ask yourself how a country is demilitarize? There are only 1 of 2 ways.

1.) Ukrainian Government capitulate - Government dissolved, thus dissolving the entire military, just like what we do in Iraq when we take Baghdad
2.) You eliminate enough of Ukrainian to make their force essentially decimated. A unit with over 20% casualty are combat ineffective, a unit with 50% casualty is not combat ready, a unit with 80% casualty are decimated. So by demilitarize Ukraine, you would need to eliminate up to 80% of the entire Ukrainian Armed Force

Now you tell me why is Kyiv is important?

Donbas was NEVER the objective of the Russian. I don't know what "paper" you read, but the ground situation I read is that it was not move, nor break out at all, suggesting that Russia is using Donbas region as blocking position. Which is basically to pin the Ukrainian troop already in Donbas, which is the only strategically smart decision Russia made during this whole war.

You don't even need to "Liberate" Donbas to achieve any of the Russian war goal. Again, Their war goal, as Putin put it is to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, both of which involve a surgical strike to change the regime in Ukraine. Which mean Kyiv is key to both of them. You don't really fight a war with every inch of the soil to win a war. There is something in the military we called "Center of Gravity or COG" you take out the center of gravity, the entire country will fall.


And I am pretty sure the COG in this case is not in Donbas. Otherwise they would not invade the entire country, if they just want to liberate Donbas.

For partition of Ukraine a Kiev to Dnipro drive is far too difficult especially as it would be a vulnerable salient with no backing from other fronts. A Kharkiv to Mariupol drive still encircles the roughly 100k troops of the regular Ukrainian Army which is pressed right up against the Donbass regions. The Kharkiv front also has backing from forces attacking northern Lugansk. It can be coordinated with uprisings and invasions in the Ukrainian reoccupied portions of Lugansk and Donetsk. From this point of view, Kharkiv is extremely important for the ambition of retaking every part of Lugansk and Donetsk oblasts.

I think it's the opposite: the attacks at Kiev and Odessa are pinning, while the attacks near Mykolaiv in the southwest, Mariupol in the Southeast and Kharkiv in the north are real. The ambition is to encircle Ukrainian regulars in the eastern cauldron with a drive north from Mariupol and drive south from Kharkiv. That eliminates 1/2-1/3 of Ukrainian regulars - achieving the 30% combat ineffective loss rate you quoted.
 
Russia is losing really, really bad! Russia weak, west stronk! "Poutin" stupid, west smart!


1648065121417.jpg


Let us do the math here.

1. Russians have lost more (regular) troops and equipment in Ukraine in 4 weeks than Americans in several countries in 20 years.
Based on what? Ukrop = Nato Propaganda? Or the fake news from the so called "pro Kremlin" newssite? Sorry to say this, but wake up! You are fooling your self and the longer you refuse to accept the reality, the harder it will be for you in the future.
 
Russia is losing really, really bad! Russia weak, west stronk! "Poutin" stupid, west smart!


1648065121417.jpg
West? Ukraine is fighting. Theoretically Russia is several times stronger.
Anyway this defacto Minsk 2, which of course Ukraine won`t implement again.
 
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Based on what? Ukrop = Nato Propaganda? Or the fake news from the so called pro Kremlin news? Sorry to say this, but wake up! You are fooling your self and the longer you refuse to accept the reality, the harder it will be for you in the future.
Based on Facts & Figures.




Russian insider leak:


I am NOT quoting Ukranian figures here.

Reality check: Russia might be able to overwhelm Ukraine but it is NOT equipped to fight a war like USA. This is true for other countries as well.
 
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