Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[gambit]

If I were Biden, I would've went for first strike in the first minutes of the conflict to:

1. Not let nuclear C&C get into actual "serious military mode"
2. Catch staging forces in the field off guard

Biden is a genuinely weak in all (dis)respects leader

Sometimes he just look, for lack of other words, confused — something which is lethal at war

The moment you lose track of the enemy strategy, you lose an ability to counter it

A popular revolution is usually from the people or being from the ground up and we can always see it coming. The people would be discontent and will express their anger. As time passes and the populist pressure build, Poutine will have time to lash out against both internal and external, and this is where the irrational nuclear response might come.

But what if Russia is de-Putinized via a coup? We can be sure that Poutine is aware of this potentiality and have taken preventative measures, as best as he can. But a coup would be fast enough that Poutine may not have enough time to lash out.

 

[Marcus-Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505984269151260672

Multiple sources are claiming with screen grabs that a pro Kremlin news source made the disclosure about Russian casualties. There is no point in blaming MSNBC and CNN for this. Doing so is just a straw man argument.

I could not care less if it was a pro Kremlin news source, perhaps an individual who resents this conflict decided to upload it, who knows. We can only guess the actual numbers, but please don't spread misinformation. If you are willing to believe that the Russians have lost 10K+ soldiers, then go ahead and believe it. I am willing to wait until after this conflict, and even then i'll try to consult multiple sources myself. Unfortunately RT and Sputniknews are sanctioned in the EU where I live, so much for freedom of press.

The fact of the matter is that nobody knows right now, and perhaps we'll find out after this conflict has settled down.

 

[jhungary]

Putin marched his army into a death trap. Even I find it so improbable that close to 10k people can be killed in 3 weeks. This seems close to the number of civilian casualties in the country that is being invaded. Almost like these fools marched straight into a 10 foot ditch and got buried there

Well, forgot to mention, in a combat action report, casualty is listed as inactive personnel. Which mean the seriously wounded, deserted, captured and dead.

They may not kill 10,000 outright, but that is the personnel unavailable to them, I believe majority of those are either captured or killed. I would say the number about 50/50

On the other hand, a few of those OSINT agency had estimated Russia lost (again inactive personnel) are more closer to 30,000-40,000 now. Which make the entire original invasion force "Combat Ineffective" Effectively saying the original invasion force is spent. You are going to start seeing Western analyst saying that in the near future.

As for how they come to that conclusion, individual agency have their own estimation.

 

[Wood]

I could not care less if it was a pro Kremlin news source, perhaps an individual who resents this conflict decided to upload it, who knows. We can only guess the actual numbers, but please don't spread misinformation. If you are willing to believe that the Russians have lost 10K+ soldiers, then go ahead and believe it. I am willing to wait until after this conflict, and even then i'll try to consult multiple sources myself. Unfortunately RT and Sputniknews are sanctioned in the EU where I live, so much for freedom of press.

The fact of the matter is that nobody knows right now, and perhaps we'll find out after this conflict has settled down.

Who can say what is misinformation and what is not? Certainly not you

What you choose to believe is not any of my business. Try not to command people on the internet what they can or cannot do. I'll post what I think is credible. In this case, there are multiple reports that a pro Kremlin news source divulged these numbers and then got taken down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505972650786672648

Well, forgot to mention, in a combat action report, casualty is listed as inactive personnel. Which mean the seriously wounded, deserted, captured and dead.

They may not kill 10,000 outright, but that is the personnel unavailable to them, I believe majority of those are either captured or killed. I would say the number about 50/50

On the other hand, a few of those OSINT agency had estimated Russia lost (again inactive personnel) are more closer to 30,000-40,000 now. Which make the entire original invasion force "Combat Ineffective" Effectively saying the original invasion force is spent. You are going to start seeing Western analyst saying that in the near future.

As for how they come to that conclusion, individual agency have their own estimation.

Yes, I think that captured or troops who abandoned post could be included in the number. But still the lives lost cannot be less than half of what is being reported at least.

 

[Tamerlane]

Fake news. It’s easy to say they got it from a Kremlin source, but now it’s been removed. No further proof required.

We know that the aim is to de-Putinise and Zionise Russia, so creating fake news is required.

 

[Marcus-Aurelius]

Who can say what is misinformation and what is not? Certainly not you

What you choose to believe is not any of my business. Try not to command people on the internet what they can or cannot do. I'll post what I think is credible. In this case, there are multiple reports that a pro Kremlin news source divulged these numbers and then got taken down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505972650786672648

I am not 'commanding' you but rather requesting you not to spread misinformation. And when you do tend to spread BS, atleast make sure you tell people that you're not certain of these numbers yourself, instead of quoting the next guy on twitter. If Twitter reports are credible for you, then I do hope you wake up some day and smell the coffee sooner rather than later. Twitter and other Western tools have an active agenda of upvoting pro Ukrainian content and downvoting/ranking anything in favor of Russia, so as I mentioned, I am skeptical of these reports.

 

[jhungary]

Who can say what is misinformation and what is not? Certainly not you

What you choose to believe is not any of my business. Try not to command people on the internet what they can or cannot do. I'll post what I think is credible. In this case, there are multiple reports that a pro Kremlin news source divulged these numbers and then got taken down.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505972650786672648

Yes, I think that captured or troops who abandoned post could be included in the number. But still the lives lost cannot be less than half of what is being reported at least.

In fact a combat report have read on Mariupol suggested that the Russian have overstretch their force in Mariupol and was forced into a grinder with the Ukrainian troop there, the original estimate is around 20,000 defender vs 40-60,000 Russian troop, which would barely made the number required by the conventional estimation (you need 3 to 1 advantage to overcome any city defender) the combat report suggested that the Ukrainian defence force had grinded down the entire Russian attacker to a point even after taking Mariupol, Russia may not have enough troop left to encircle the Ukrainian troop in donbas, unless a replenishment had taken place.

That is evidently showing as the advance of Mykolaiv stalled and were not advancing for weeks. The Russian put the troop there into defensive mode, so they can counter any Ukrainian attack for Kherson, otherwise if Ukraine took Kherson, there are nothing stopping the Ukrainian taking Crimea, which is the base of operation of southern flank.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Can we start a betting competition so people can put their money (figuratively) where their mouth is at?

Calling bets on specific timelines at X intervals out, if a user accepts the counterbet then the outcome is loser gets banned for given time as bet stipulation.

For example: User A bets that Odessa is captured or surrendered by May 15 for 2 months of ban time. User B accepts the bet against. On May 15, whoever loses the bet is banned until July 15.

 

[Wood]

I am not 'commanding' you but rather requesting you not to spread misinformation. And when you do tend to spread BS, atleast make sure you tell people that you're not certain of these numbers yourself, instead of quoting the next guy on twitter. If Twitter reports are credible for you, then I do hope you wake up some day and smell the coffee sooner rather than later. Twitter and other Western tools have an active agenda of upvoting pro Ukrainian content and downvoting/ranking anything in favor of Russia, so as I mentioned, I am skeptical of these reports.

It is not misinformation to say that a pro Kremlin news source reported these numbers. Simply because you label unfriendly information BS, it will not make it so.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It is not misinformation to say that a pro Kremlin news source reported these numbers. Simply because you label unfriendly information BS, it will not make it so.

how do you know it wasn't released by Ukrainians then they claim pro Kremlin source released then removed it, if they don't give the archive link?

 

[jhungary]

Can we start a betting competition so people can put their money (figuratively) where their mouth is at?

Calling bets on specific timelines at X intervals out, if a user accepts the counterbet then the outcome is loser gets banned for given time as bet stipulation.

For example: User A bets that Odessa is captured or surrendered by May 15 for 2 months of ban time. User B accepts the bet against. On May 15, whoever loses the bet is banned until July 15.

Dude, this is a war, not a football game, trying to chart the progress as an outsider is one thing, bet on people misfortune is another.

If you want to do bet on something, go bet on your local college football and stop commenting on these thread.

This is low, even for people like you

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Dude, this is a war, not a football game, trying to chart the progress as an outside is one thing, bet on people misfortune is another.

If you want to do that, go bet on your local college football and stop commenting on these thread.

there should be a penalty for being wrong. I mean if it turns out that I predict wrong and I get banned for it, then so be it. I just want this sort of scrutiny for everyone.

 

[Wood]

In fact a combat report have read on Mariupol suggested that the Russian have overstretch their force in Mariupol and was forced into a grinder with the Ukrainian troop there, the original estimate is around 20,000 defender vs 40-60,000 Russian troop, which would barely made the number required by the conventional estimation (you need 3 to 1 advantage to overcome any city defender) the combat report suggested that the Ukrainian defence force had grinded down the entire Russian attacker to a point even after taking Mariupol, Russia may not have enough troop left to encircle the Ukrainian troop in donbas, unless a replenishment had taken place.

That is evidently showing as the advance of Mykolaiv stalled and were not advancing for weeks. The Russian put the troop there into defensive mode, so they can counter any Ukrainian attack for Kherson, otherwise if Ukraine took Kherson, there are nothing stopping the Ukrainian taking Crimea, which is the base of operation of southern flank.

I think Russians have made some advance in the North of Kyiv today with helicopter gunships. We'll see if they are able to make something out of it or lose ground again. Must recent American arms shipment have not reached the Ukrainians yet. I hope it allows the Ukrainians to get back Mauripol and push back in Kyiv

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

This is low, even for people like you

lmao you cheer the death of Russians and you have the audacity to call me low? When have I ever said anything anti Ukraine or Ukrainian in general???

 

[jhungary]

there should be a penalty for being wrong. I mean if it turns out that I predict wrong and I get banned for it, then so be it. I just want this sort of scrutiny for everyone.

You should be banned for it just for bring this up.

Again, this is NOT A GAME, people like you who had never seen war and what war can do to people will not know the hardship people face in war, from both Ukrainian side and Russian side.

You think this is fun and game? How about people start betting on how many Chinese get killed in motor accident every day and the winner win a bragging right and the loser get banned?

lmao you cheer the death of Russians and you have the audacity to call me low? When have I ever said anything anti Ukraine or Ukrainian in general???

I NEVER cheer for the death on Russian soldier, go find me a post I comment on Russian death in a negative manner, all I did here is to provide a unbiased commentary. I reported death of Russian general and I comment on how they were killed and what does that represent, I did not say "Good Riddance" or something like that.

This is a bet, if you find me cheering on the death of Russian soldier, report that post to the mod and I am willing to serve any ban that come with.