Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

[Meengla]

Very interesting read.

But do you think that it is fair to say that China is the only winner? At best, you can say that China is a winner in the economic sense. In the geopolitical sphere, US has regained its leadership role among western countries. Biden formed AUKUS because of his frustration in not being able to convince EU countries to put their security interests over economic interests. EU was under the notion that both interests can be mutually exclusive. This philosophy led them to get into bed with Russia for energy needs. Now that is not the case anymore. Is this not a win for US?

Secondly, the prediction that China will be a winner rests on the assumption that Putin (or his ilk) will continue to lead Russia for the next decade or more. Can anyone be sure of that? What if the dictator gets an unforeseen ailment? Or gradually looses his appeal under economic decline? Will the racist Russian skin heads who support Z be willing to accept Chinese whim for ever and ever?

Good Points.
No, China is not the only winner. I had said in a post above that China is the No. 1 winner and America is the No. 2 from this conflict. The cost will be borne by Russians, Ukrainians, and other European countries.
But you are right: Who knows what a post-Putin Russia would look like? China gains in short term at least. But Russia, at least to the west of the Urals (minus the Caucasus region) is destined to be part of Europe. Only if some powers had waited for a few more decades...

 

[Al_Muhannad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503240203884019712

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503212791813095424

 

[nang2]

Ukraine is a victim of Russian hyper nationalism. The US to an extent allowed it to happen. If NATO countries had imposed more strict sanctions against Russia after 2014, things would have not reached this crescendo.

No, Ukraine is a victim of their own naivety. If you sit next to a big fire, play it carefully or you will be burned. US played right into the internal conflict in Ukraine and encouraged its reckless policy. Its democracy is a joke. It is just a tool for some groups of people to oppress other groups. US knows it well and they indoctrinate Ukrainian into it. They always promote democracy, never freedom, certainly never about the freedom of the minority.

 

[Wood]

Good Points.
No, China is not the only winner. I had said in a post above that China is the No. 1 winner and America is the No. 2 from this conflict. The cost will be borne by Russians, Ukrainians, and other European countries.
But you are right: Who knows what a post-Putin Russia would look like? China gains in short term at least. But Russia, at least to the west of the Urals (minus the Caucasus region) is destined to be part of Europe. Only if some powers had waited for a few more decades...

One of the problems with Russia - China economic integration is that the Russian industries are concentrated close to its European border. As you know, the Chinese industries are concentrated on the coastal region. The rail based connectivity between the regions will be a choke point. But of course, this is not a limitation for resource extraction from other parts of Russia.

 

[nang2]

One of the problems with Russia - China economic integration is that the Russian industries are concentrated close to its European border. As you know, the Chinese industries are concentrated on the coastal region. The rail based connectivity between the regions will be a choke point. But of course, this is not a limitation for resource extraction from other parts of Russia.

It won't be a choke point since nobody dares to attack it. Given the size of the Russian economy, I think that rail link works just fine.

 

[Wood]

No, Ukraine is a victim of their own naivety. If you sit next to a big fire, play it carefully or you will be burned. US played right into the internal conflict in Ukraine and encouraged its reckless policy. Its democracy is a joke. It is just a tool for some groups of people to oppress other groups. US knows it well and they indoctrinate Ukrainian into it. They always promote democracy, never freedom, certainly never about the freedom of the minority.

I don't buy this narrative of 'US the big bad bully' that many Chinese like to proselytize the internet with.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation. The Russians are not willing to accept their sovereignty and want suzerainty over them. This is the core of the problem in my view.

It won't be a choke point since nobody dares to attack it. Given the size of the Russian economy, I think that rail link works just fine.

Not every corridor needs to be attacked. Even simply maintenance can be troublesome. We can all 'think' whatever suits our comfort

 

[Al_Muhannad]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503381415249035268

 

[Meengla]

I don't buy this narrative of 'US the big bad bully' that many Chinese like to proselytize the internet with.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation. The Russians are not willing to accept their sovereignty and want suzerainty over them. This is the core of the problem in my view.

I think you are very conveniently forgetting that America has claimed an entire hemisphere for itself and also launched a totally illegal war against Iraq in 2003. Add to them, some other acts of hypocrisy: Cuba was a sovereign country in 60 years ago but you know what happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis. These contradictions are pointed out by even some prominent Americans...
It's best to not throw stones while sitting in a glass house.

 

[Wood]

I think you are very conveniently forgetting that America has claimed an entire hemisphere for itself and also launched a totally illegal war against Iraq in 2003. Add to them, some other acts of hypocrisy: Cuba was a sovereign country in 60 years ago but you know what happened during the Cuban Missile Crisis. These contradictions are pointed out by even some prominent Americans...
It's best to not throw stones while sitting in a glass house.

I've not said that the Americans or any great power for that matter is noble. Even many Americans are critical about American adventures in Iraq and Cuba. But this does not mean that every crisis in the world is because of America. Anti-American zealots always hope to paint this picture.

 

[Vergennes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1503383122787938312

 

[nang2]

I don't buy this narrative of 'US the big bad bully' that many Chinese like to proselytize the internet with.

Ukraine is a sovereign nation. The Russians are not willing to accept their sovereignty and want suzerainty over them. This is the core of the problem in my view.


Not every corridor needs to be attacked. Even simply maintenance can be troublesome. We can all 'think' whatever suits our comfort

No, US is not the big bad bully. Being a bully usually means to beat up little guys, which, of course, is also what US likes to do. But in this case, it is not beating up a little guy. It is pushing a guy with fair size. That is what all great powers do and they do it through proxies. In this case, the proxy is Ukraine who is naive enough to get himself into such a role.

In addition, all great powers like to have their neighbors to be either their suzerainty or their dependencies, not just Russia/US. China also acts that way. That is why after US withdrew from Vietnam, China refused North Vietnam's request for help to invade the south. It is for China's benefit that Vietnam remains divided and weak.

As of the rail corridor, if that becomes critical for China, it certainly has enough skills and manpower to take care of that. Need I remind you the rail building frenzy China has in recent years?

I've not said that the Americans or any great power for that matter is noble. Even many Americans are critical about American adventures in Iraq and Cuba. But this does not mean that every crisis in the world is because of America. Anti-American zealots always hope to paint this picture.

Definitely not every crisis is because of America. But in this case, especially where NATO is the center of discussion, it is certainly because of America.

 

[Wood]

No, US is not the big bad bully. Being a bully usually means to beat up little guys, which, of course, is also what US likes to do. But in this case, it is not beating up a little guy. It is pushing a guy with fair size. That is what all great powers do and they do it through proxies. In this case, the proxy is Ukraine who is naive enough to get himself into such a role.

In addition, all great powers like to have their neighbors to be either their suzerainty or their dependencies, not just Russia/US. China also acts that way. That is why after US withdrew from Vietnam, China refused North Vietnam's request for help to invade the south. It is for China's benefit that Vietnam remains divided and weak.

As of the rail corridor, if that becomes critical for China, it certainly has enough skills and manpower to take care of that. Need I remind you the rail building frenzy China has in recent years?


Definitely not every crisis is because of America. But in this case, especially where NATO is the center of discussion, it is certainly because of America.

Before people blame US /NATO for pushing Ukraine into this position, do they consider that Ukraine will have no use for NATO without Russian hyper nationalism breathing down their neck? Why is that never in question?!

If Russians don't try to install a puppet regime in Ukraine and establish suzerainty over the ex-soviet states, then why would they both with NATO in the first place?

As for the rail link, I remember reading that a maintenance of this line caused a back up of good shipped between these two regions. This is where my knowledge of this rail link comes from. Just because Chinese have the man power and expertise to fix any such issue does not mean that they are born with a magic wand. Everything takes time and time is money!

 

[nang2]

Before people blame US /NATO for pushing Ukraine into this position, do they consider that Ukraine will have no use for NATO without Russian hyper nationalism breathing down their neck? Why is that never in question?!

If Russians don't try to install a puppet regime in Ukraine and establish suzerainty over the ex-soviet states, then why would they both with NATO in the first place?

As for the rail link, I remember reading that a maintenance of this line caused a back up of good shipped between these two regions. This is where my knowledge of this rail link comes from. Just because Chinese have the man power and expertise to fix any such issue does not mean that they are born with a magic wand. Everything takes time and time is money!

That is why I said Ukrainians are naive. The moment they feel threatened from one side, they run for the other side. Did it never occur to them to strengthen themselves? You don't need to join NATO or Russia to be a militarily strong country. Look at it, for 3 decades after independence, Ukraine's own military and industrial base is still a joke. This is a country blessed with fertile lands and acquired a sizeable industrial sector from Soviet.

 

[CrazyZ]

2015​

Azov funding Banned:

View attachment 824045
(src) (src)

2016
​

Under pressure from Pentagon:
Unbanned:

View attachment 824047
(src) (src)
.

USA has become a terrorist sponsor.

 

[Wood]

That is why I said Ukrainians are naive. The moment they feel threatened from one side, they run for the other side. Did it never occur to them to strengthen themselves? You don't need to join NATO or Russia to be a militarily strong country. Look at it, for 3 decades after independence, Ukraine's own military and industrial base is still a joke. This is a country blessed with fertile lands and acquired a sizeable industrial sector from Soviet.

Even Germany and France require US support to handle Russia. You expect a poor erstwhile Soviet state to be able to establish credible deterrence to Russia? New countries have incredible challenges in their formative years to establish their economy. Under such circumstances, I'll not blame Ukraine (or any other Baltic state) to run towards bigger powers for protection.

Even India is seeking a closet alliance with the West because of its inability to unilaterally deal with China. I will certainly not call Ukraine naive for seeking protection in NATO. It is just too bad for them that Putin is an uncompromising bully.