Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[ZeGerman]

Why does Ukraine still have functioning airports and airbase?
Why are electricity power plants operational?
Why are railways and roads functional?
Why is the infrastructure still working?
Remember how the west even attacked hospitals and sanitation in Iraq.

There is something not right in this war

https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D82Z2P5K/download

WHO records 100th attack on health care in Ukraine

A grim milestone has been crossed today in the war in Ukraine – more than 100 attacks on health care verified by WHO since the start of the war on 24 February. The attacks so far have claimed 73 lives and injured 51.Of the current total of 103 attacks, 89 have impacted health facilities and 13...

www.who.int

**** off with your propaganda.
Russia bombed 10 times the health facilities and you are trying to paint them as being “kind/soft” here….

 

[alimobin memon]

Why does Russia need to call up 300,000 reserves? If you can answer this question, it can probably answer yours.

If I may, they will most probably be initially stationed at borders near ukraine. Regulars will go fight. just one way to think about it.

 

[jhungary]

If I may, they will most probably be initially stationed at borders near ukraine. Regulars will go fight. just one way to think about it.

The thing is, there are no more "Regular" they are all committed to battle.

You may think Russia have a very big military, but their combatant troop is only around 300,000 strong, the rest are 400,000 National Guard (like Border Guard in Ukraine) and around 200,000 Internal Security Troop, which really are a bunch of Riot Police. Both of them aren't really geared for military operation.

You are basically replacing National Guard with Conscript, that does not make the National Guard suddenly trained and suitable for war. That's the reason why they failed the invasion in the first place and why they are asking for conscript now. Putting another group of untrained amateurs is not changing the matrix any bit...

 

[alimobin memon]

https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D82Z2P5K/download

WHO records 100th attack on health care in Ukraine

A grim milestone has been crossed today in the war in Ukraine – more than 100 attacks on health care verified by WHO since the start of the war on 24 February. The attacks so far have claimed 73 lives and injured 51.Of the current total of 103 attacks, 89 have impacted health facilities and 13...

www.who.int

**** off with your propaganda.
Russia bombed 10 times the health facilities and you are trying to paint them as being “kind/soft” here….

If anyone thinks these Russians, Ukrainians and neighbors are innocent then they are dumb. I do believe Russia will get upper hand or will be no more regional power as publicized, but they are surely ruthless. I remember one book of some colonel or maybe sergeant or platoon level commander equivalent, don't exactly remember the rank. Where he told that after defeat of Nazis in 1945. "He and his soldiers saw a young girl maybe minor in age of 13 to 15 and said, "was raped by us and we kept laughing". He regrets it years later in his book or memoir.

‘The Russian soldiers raped every German female from eight to 80’

Antony Beevor, author of the acclaimed new book about the fall of Berlin, on a massive war crime committed by the victorious Red Army

www.theguardian.com

Read this too.

I agree with what you said they are no innocents.

The thing is, there are no more "Regular" they are all committed to battle.

You may think Russia have a very big military, but their combatant troop is only around 300,000 strong, the rest are 400,000 National Guard (like Border Guard in Ukraine) and around 200,000 Internal Security Troop, which really are a bunch of Riot Police. Both of them aren't really geared for military operation.

You are basically replacing National Guard with Conscript, that does not make the National Guard suddenly trained and suitable for war. That's the reason why they failed the invasion in the first place and why they are asking for conscript now. Putting another group of untrained amateurs is not changing the matrix any bit...

Yes they are not trained but seems like Russia is in hurry or desperate right now.

 

[jhungary]

If anyone thinks these Russians, Ukrainians and neighbors are innocent then they are dumb. I do believe Russia will get upper hand or will be no more regional power as publicized, but they are surely ruthless. I remember one book of some colonel or maybe sergeant or platoon level commander equivalent, don't exactly remember the rank. Where he told that after defeat of Nazis in 1945. "He and his soldiers saw a young girl maybe minor in age of 13 to 15 and said, "was raped by us and we kept laughing". He regrets it years later in his book or memoir.

‘The Russian soldiers raped every German female from eight to 80’

Antony Beevor, author of the acclaimed new book about the fall of Berlin, on a massive war crime committed by the victorious Red Army

www.theguardian.com

Read this too.

I agree with what you said they are no innocents.


Yes they are not trained but seems like Russia is in hurry or desperate right now.

That's the problem, you don't win war in a hurry or being desperate. Russia should really think of instead of calling 300,000 up and hope and pray that they can keep the momentum going, they should just vacate and try to consolidate and defend their gain selectively, that is what a well trained army do.

If you are already losing, and you still want to keep every part of occupied territories, it will ALWAYS be going to end up losing all of them.....and that is tried and tested theory with more than 5000 years of warfare to back up....

 

[alimobin memon]

That's the problem, you don't win war in a hurry or being desperate. Russia should really think of instead of calling 300,000 up and hope and pray that they can keep the momentum going, they should just vacate and try to consolidate and defend their gain selectively, that is what a well trained army do.

If you are already losing, and you still want to keep every part of occupied territories, it will ALWAYS be going to end up losing all of them.....and that is tried and tested theory with more than 5000 years of warfare to back up....

Either they will win big or loss all. That is true.

If the lose then they will lose big because, the image of mighty Russia feared by her enemies will totally be vanished. Hence, more issues by NATO directly either taking the advantage of handicapped Russia.

 

[Vergennes]

If I may, they will most probably be initially stationed at borders near ukraine. Regulars will go fight. just one way to think about it.

As I said once people think Russia only deployed a small percentage of their army when they actually committed 85% of their available BTGs and deployed additionnal ones to replace those that were out of combat. Russian ground forces "only" number 280 to 300K personnels,a great part of them being conscripts. (And that number even might be inflated,read the thread I posted about corruption in the Russian army. )

Calling "300k" (even that number might be inflated given even Russian military telegram reports there aren't enough rifles let alone tanks,armored vehicles,artillery,who will supervise them on the field?) reservists is a desperate measure to try to hide the catastrophic situation of the Russian army on the field.

Many mobilized probably never had a military training in the first place,are already dead drunk and will be sent in the trenches in frozen winter with little to no clothes and in soviet relicas like T55s,no body armor and ww2 steel helmets,many poorly motivated and most importantely poorly led,how do you think this will end ? In a disaster,exactly.

Ukraine on the other hand will receive even more western weapons (soon US lend lease) and doesn't lack motivated men. Ukrainians would rather die than live under Russian occupation. Those drunkards Russia's sending isn't to renew offensives or to capture entire Ukrainian territories,but only to hold those which are currently occupied and under constant Ukrainian pressure.

 

[jhungary]

equivalent Either they will win big or loss all. That is true.

If the lose then they will lose big because, the image of mighty Russia feared by her enemies will totally be vanished. Hence, more issues by NATO directly either taking the advantage of handicapped Russia.

If this is the point where you draw if Russia win or lose, then they have lost already. Because since when since the start of the war did the Russian shown their mighty side and should be feared by her enemies? Nobody really took Russian Armed Force seriously since maybe May. And now with Putin publicly come out and say he needed 300,000 to plug the gap is basically a equivalent to publicly declare they had lost the battle since the invasion....

The image of Russian Armed Force being formidable is long gone. And I don't think throwing 300,000 troop in this would have change it.

 

[HydraChess]

Depends on what type of Tactical Nuclear Weapon the Russian uses.

If this is sub-kilotons, most likely NATO will be seriously condemning such attack, likely to intervene directly somehow (like enforcing a no fly zone), unlikely to send troop to Ukraine.

If this is multiple kilo tons of tactical nuclear weapon (below 20kt) Then most likely NATO will directly intervene, possible troop on the ground or peacekeeper, this is most likely ends the conflict for Russia. This is because if Putin uses kiloton Tactical Nuke, anything east of the Dnieper River would have blown toward Poland, and that would trigger Article 5. And depends on Russian response, they may escalate or they may call it a day. Also, if they use 20kt device East of the Dnieper River, more than likely the Radioactive Fall out and radioactive matter will blown back toward Russia.

On the other hand, Russia using Sub Kiloton nuclear weapon is low, because there are a lot of ways to deal more damage in Ukraine than using them, using them is more of a statement rather than actual usage, it won't change the situation on the ground, in fact, even using 20kt weapon won't change the balance, as it can at most take out a single city. You will need 5 or 6 or even 10 to change the situation, if you use ten 20 kiloton nuclear weapon, that's starting a global thermonuclear war.

And if they are several 100kt bombs? Will US like to endanger its own land?

 

[Viet]

I don't see how China getting to take care of a failed state like Russia is going to benefit them, sure, cheap Oil and Gas is good, but that is going up to a point, and that point would have been way pass the 450 billion dollars oil and gas industry Russia had before the war (now worth a lot less), otherwise, everything is only a one way traffic, from China to Russia. And you can't do business with that.

Probably the only thing I can really think of is China probably will get all the Russian P0rn star, which most of them previously work in EU. I mean, think about it, where can these P0rn star goes? EU has now closes the door to them, Japan also do not welcome Russian, you can't shoot p0rn in Middle Eastern Country so Turkey is out. Which mean these girl are going to either Georgia or China, I am expecting a lot of Russian p0rn coming out of China the next year....

In the first week when the invasion began, I made the joke, Russia would become a chinese colony, Putin to knee from Moscow to Beijing to ask for money.
Putin can’t defy military and economic logics.
common russians are now in panic. They realize Putin wants general mobilization. Shoigu says Russia has 25 millions reservists.

 

[jhungary]

And if they are several 100kt bombs? Will US like to endanger its own land?

First of all, Russia is next to Ukraine, if Russia drop several 100kt bomb, Russia is GOING TO ENDANGER THEIR OWN LAND first. Given Moscow is around 400km from Kharkiv, that's more than well into the danger zone if the bomb were dropped anywhere between Middle to Eastern part of Ukraine.

Second. If several 100kt bomb is used, and they are using it in the West Ukraine (like Kyiv and Lviv and so on), it is going to blow over to Poland and Romania. I don't see how Poland and Romania will not trigger article 5 on this and bring NATO into a collective defence.

So no, there will NOT be several 100kt bomb drop on Ukraine, either you burn yourself, or you burn Poland and bring NATO into it. At most if nuclear weapon were use, it will be low yield as in less than 20kt. Which probably can take out a city, which is not going to sway the battlefield, and there is a chance NATO and US will get involved.

 

[HydraChess]

First of all, Russia is next to Ukraine, if Russia drop several 100kt bomb, Russia is GOING TO ENDANGER THEIR OWN LAND first. Given Moscow is around 400km from Kharkiv, that's more than well into the danger zone if the bomb were dropped anywhere between Middle to Eastern part of Ukraine.

Second. If several 100kt bomb is used, and they are using it in the West Ukraine (like Kyiv and Lviv and so on), it is going to blow over to Poland and Romania. I don't see how Poland and Romania will not trigger article 5 on this and bring NATO into a collective defence.

So no, there will NOT be several 100kt bomb drop on Ukraine, either you burn yourself, or you burn Poland and bring NATO into it. At most if nuclear weapon were use, it will be low yield as in less than 20kt. Which probably can take out a city, which is not going to sway the battlefield, and there is a chance NATO and US will get involved.

You are assuming Putin to remain rational... I am finding that assumption being challenged. The worst crimes are done out of cowardice.

 

[jhungary]

In the first week when the invasion began, I made the joke, Russia would become a chinese colony, Putin to knee from Moscow to Beijing to ask for money.
Putin can’t defy military and economic logics.

I remember, and I don't think that's a joke because I have been saying the same thing.

We have a saying in the Military, "You don't reinforce your lost" and this is what Putin is doing right now. Yes, what Putin is doing is defying Military Logic, he should cut the loss and divert his meager resource to where they can hold out. Sending 300,000 men won't solve anything.

You are assuming Putin to remain rational... I am finding that assumption being challenged. The worst crimes are done out of cowardice.

I am assuming the Chain of Russian command remain rational, Putin cannot order a nuclear strike until the Minister of Defence and the Chief of Russian Military approved. I don't know about Shoigu, Gerasimov is a traditional military man, he knows better than to do that, because if nuke was launch, one way or another, there are no way Russia can win. Gerasimov knows that.

 

[HydraChess]

I remember, and I don't think that's a joke because I have been saying the same thing.

We have a saying in the Military, "You don't reinforce your lost" and this is what Putin is doing right now. Yes, what Putin is doing is defying Military Logic, he should cut the loss and divert his meager resource to where they can hold out. Sending 300,000 men won't solve anything.

As I said, rationality is out of window. He should have remained content with Crimea and consolidated it.

This also makes any country taking russians as refugees think twice... Russia can attack anywhere with russian population by the weird logic he is using.

I am assuming the Chain of Russian command remain rational, Putin cannot order a nuclear strike until the Minister of Defence and the Chief of Military approved. I don't know about Shoigu, Gerasimov is a traditional military man, he knows better than to do that, because if nuke was launch, one way or another, there are no way Russia can win. Gerasimov knows that.

How hard will it be to remove Gerasimov?

 

[jhungary]

As I said, rationality is out of window. He should have remained content with Crimea and consolidated it.

This also makes any country taking russians as refugees think twice... Russia can attack anywhere with russian population by the weird logic he is using.

I don't know, if Russian pull back everything and concentrate on Crimea, that itself would be a problem. Crimea is hard to take, but it depends on outside resources. if Russian got pushed back all the way to Crimea, then it mean the electricity and water will be cut, and put Kerch Bridge under range of Ukrainian Artillery, if that bridge was down, then you basically going to starve the entire garrison in Crimea.

If the Russia cannot hold the land bridge, there are no way Russia can hold Crimea.

How hard will it be to remove Gerasimov?

Unless you want the Russian Military to revolt...it's very hard.

You don't get to be Chief of Russian Military (or whatever his title is, I forgot the actual name) without serious connection to Russian Military, removing him most likely ended with a bloody coup. I don't see Gerasimov going willingly......