Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Viet]

Seriously Afghanistan? Lol. Boy, Russia is not my country nor am. I a fan of Russia. I am just analyzing things objectively, Russia will not lose this war, because if they lose, it will be WW3. Just common sense babe. I love my dimsum breakfast, and NATo has no right destroying world peace. Stop fcking expanding and destabilising the world assholes.


Of course, if Russia us dismantled, guess who will claim Siberia? Anyway we are not that dumb to fall for that. US is trying to divide us, if Russia falls, the hegemon will destroy China next.

You mean Putin will start nuclear war if Russia loses? Man, wake up, eat your dim sum. Russia will lose this war. There is no way out. Even if Putin runs amok we will see if Shoigu, Gerasimov and the commanders of Russia nuclear force are willing to push the button.

 

[Viet]

Putin, the man with the largest nuclear arsenal

He hates EU so much, still dreaming of USSR redux after Kherson defeat,

wearing a Italian luxury jacket of Loro Piana worth 24,000 euros.

Maybe the jacket will keep him safe when nuclear war breaks out.

 

[Oldman1]

Another reason is that EU cannot and will not deal with Ukrainian Refugee and Energy Crisis 2.0. The only way they can do that is to have a stablised Eastern front, and the only way that can do that is to accept Ukrainian NATO membership. What Ukraine need to do is to degenerate Russia to a point that it will take them a long time to recover and hence cannot threaten the stability around Europe, because rest assure, even if Ukraine joined NATO, Russia is not just going to stop there, there are still a few non-NATO member in Europe Russia can bully. And they will if Ukraine joined NATO. Only if Russia conventional capability being decayed to a point that it cannot used to threaten other country, would NATO consider Ukraine membership.

There is pretty much not much non NATO country they can threaten Europe if Ukraine is the one left to join NATO. Except for Belarus which is closely align with Russia. Unless Russia decides to fly over the NATO countries and land or parachute in those non-NATO countries.

 

[Viet]

There are a few way Ukraine can cross, but those would come with high price.

If they have to cross for whatever reason, they can use the kakhovka dam as a strong point and cross from there. Or air assault into the rear, that would be extremely risky

The safest and less risky point is they just attack from Orikhiv and move south toward either Mariupol or Melitipol while pressuring the Russian on the other side of the Dnieper. The thing is, you don't want Russia to move majority of those troop eastward, that will surge the ongoing Bakhmut offence, which mean Ukraine would need to offset that by sending freed troop from Kherson and help defend Bakhmut. Ukraine don't want that, they most likely wanted to attack Russian elsewhere riding the high.

Your prediction may come true. Ukraine army withdraws 30,000 men from Kherson operations. the troops will form the spearhead towards Saprorischa and Melitopol. Seems there isn’t no truce in the winter months.

 

[Oldman1]

They got 2 for trials in August. The volunteer group in Poland made 2 variants: first drops 6 3.4kg 81mm, or 4 4.15kg mortar bombs, second drops 1 120mm

That's still work in progress. PID, and gyros needs tuning. We also need an optical flow sensor which can work at night.

It's hard to pilot, and currently requires somebody with experience piloting DIY quadcopters to not to crash within minutes. One time it went into pilot induced oscillations when fully loaded with bombs...

No doubt, it can be mass produced in Poland if money, and equipment will come.

Are these kind of like Agriculture quadcopters of some kind? Was thinking more of fix wing vertical launch versions. But not going to complain about new quad copters being introduced especially able to drop bigger grenades or mortars.

This is the type I was leaning towards.

They need conventional air power to try to neutralise Russian position on the other side, artillery can do the trick, but you would need a lot of those.

If conventional air power is unavailable, a large quantity of drone will do.


That was before the collapse of the entire Russian line, I think that picture is on Nov 9 or Nov 10.

Back then Mykolaiv could still be attacked by land and sea had Russian broken thru the Ukrainian frontline, now the front line is moved to Kherson, expect the same amount of concentration in Kherson if not more, and expecting the unit now in the rear (Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih or even Dnipro (which have 3 brigades in the area) to move forward.

Probably use some of those units in their current offensive in Luhansk as well.

 

[Paul2]

No. Well, I don't know, depends on circumstance.

If this is an execution, they wouldn't be line up so neatly. When you are shot standing up, especially you are not tied down (as they were not ties) you cannot control your fall when you died, because, well, you are dead already... So, your body would be positioned differently than other because the pose would have been random. As none of these soldiers can choose how they fall when they died.

Like this

Spoiler: graphic

View attachment 896103

Spoiler: graphic

View attachment 896108

See how the position of each body is different than the others?

And in this clip, 5 Russian body die head to toe in the same way, unless you really that lucky and they all felt the same way, or they were posed, but then you know it is not posted because the blood on the floor matches the wound. Which mean these body lies as it is. That's how it was deposited when they died.

So what kill these men? First of all, they all "Forced" into the same position would mean they were killed by a force traumatic enough to move the body of a few men which I guess weight about hundred kilogram each, that suggested explosion because bullet can't do that. Then you can see they are all lay in a circular direction with the same pattern of debris radiated along the floor, you would know it most likely an Artillery/mortar strike that kill these men.

Now if they were unarmed and hit by an artillery/mortar strike, and they are just shooting mortar round at them for fun, that could be a war crime, but it can also just be the soldiers had already cleaned up the scene and collected their weapon. So I don't know.

Saab MAPAM airburst

 

[Oldman1]

Executed Russian prisoners ?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591548674018250752

Tough to say but looks more like artillery strike. Their hands and legs are not bound and they are still wearing their body armor and vests and helmets. 1 body is away from the rest and others laying on their backs or laying on their stomach.

Kind of reminds me of this when Russian troops are clumped together at the beginning of the video. Course this is more grenade attack from drone than an actual artillery strike.

Also in the link of the telegram social network it says with google translate

https://****/gistapapapa/52149

With love from the 80th brigade of the Armed Forces

Series 3 or lead poisoning

#flowers

Content from flower garden owners

80th Brigade is a Ukrainian Air Assault unit. So would they have a drone recording an execution? Or just their results from an attack lets say an artillery strike.

 

[jhungary]

There is pretty much not much non NATO country they can threaten Europe if Ukraine is the one left to join NATO. Except for Belarus which is closely align with Russia. Unless Russia decides to fly over the NATO countries and land or parachute in those non-NATO countries.

Well, they can threaten a few others, like Moldova or Countries on the other side of Caucasus like Georgia, Azerbaijan et el.

On the other hand, Russia may not need serious military intervention to destabilise central Europe. State like Kosovo can be threatened by increasing support to Serbian fraction.

Your prediction may come true. Ukraine army withdraws 30,000 men from Kherson operations. the troops will form the spearhead towards Saprorischa and Melitopol. Seems there isn’t no truce in the winter months.

I will say, we need to wait and see for it.

But attacking Russia now make sense, especially after Kyiv, Kharkiv and now Kherson (the three Ks) Russian morale s probably rock bottom right now, not really much of a point give them breathing space and let them rest over it. You gotta keep the pressure going, and the best way to do is to cut directly thru to Melitopol or Mariupol.

Are these kind of like Agriculture quadcopters of some kind? Was thinking more of fix wing vertical launch versions. But not going to complain about new quad copters being introduced especially able to drop bigger grenades or mortars.

This is the type I was leaning towards.

Probably use some of those units in their current offensive in Luhansk as well.

you are talking about drone or unit on the current Luhansk offensive??

Saab MAPAM airburst

Possible.

This is most likely an artillery strike, again, execution is not going to end up like that....

 

[Oldman1]

Well, they can threaten a few others, like Moldova or Countries on the other side of Caucasus like Georgia, Azerbaijan et el.

On the other hand, Russia may not need serious military intervention to destabilise central Europe. State like Kosovo can be threatened by increasing support to Serbian fraction.

Most likely shift their focus to the Caucasus and Stans in near future where those countries not as powerful.

But attacking Russia now make sense, especially after Kyiv, Kharkiv and now Kherson (the three Ks) Russian morale s probably rock bottom right now, not really much of a point give them breathing space and let them rest over it. You gotta keep the pressure going, and the best way to do is to cut directly thru to Melitopol or Mariupol.

Don't know if the weather is not too bad from November to January. Melitopol would be the best target to attack in my view. Mariupol is more symbolic. Should have blocking units facing towards Mariupol while having other units attack Melitopol and the surrounding areas as well as push towards Kherson and Crimea in terms of direction.

 

[Han Patriot]

You mean Putin will start nuclear war if Russia loses? Man, wake up, eat your dim sum. Russia will lose this war. There is no way out. Even if Putin runs amok we will see if Shoigu, Gerasimov and the commanders of Russia nuclear force are willing to push the button.

It will be tactical nukes when he gets desperate. He will create a buffer radiated zone between Russia and NATO. Nobody is going to nuke Russia even if Ukraine gets nuked. That's the power of the P5. But if course the current situation is still manageable, its just how much Ukraine is willing to let go. 60% of Kherson on the east bank, Donbass and Zaphoriye. Or years of bombing n suffering, this can go on forever.

The Russian intention had never been about getting territory from Ukraine exvept for Crimea which rightfully belonged to Russia. Their aim was like the SinoViet war of 1979, teaching a lesson and pressurising Ukraine into an agreement. Of course we know shit like that would never work, and now this escalated into land grabbing to justify the war cost. To me Russia will most likely keep the territories in the East and of course Crimea. It's just common geographical sense.

 

[jhungary]

Don't know if the weather is not too bad from November to January. Melitopol would be the best target to attack in my view. Mariupol is more symbolic. Should have blocking units facing towards Mariupol while having other units attack Melitopol and the surrounding areas as well as push towards Kherson and Crimea in terms of direction.

Well, look at it strategically.

If the ultimate aim is to cut Russian supply line in half, and stop the land corridor. Then you don't really need Mariupol, Melitopol could do. Mariupol can act as a ferry point and using the port to ship stuff to Crimea instead of going from all the way from Russia.

In a tactical sense. You have 2 crossing point over a wide and deep river, and an entry point just off the river. Conventional wisdom would suggest you assault parallel toward the river, which have the river act as your flank, and attack Russia thru Orikhiv or closer at Kamianske. But I would say Ukraine have enough force to push from both Nova Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia, IF they did not send any troop to Bakhmut, which is another logical things to do.

It really depends on how Ukraine want to do it, they have the upperhand now, because they have option, Russia would need to at least react to this which would put them in passive. I would doubt Ukraine will let this chance go, but then I do not speak for Ukraine...They might think it's okay, that's far enough, we call it until next Spring.

 

[Oldman1]

It will be tactical nukes when he gets desperate. He will create a buffer radiated zone between Russia and NATO. Nobody is going to nuke Russia even if Ukraine gets nuked. That's the power of the P5. But if course the current situation is still manageable, its just how much Ukraine is willing to let go. 60% of Kherson on the east bank, Donbass and Zaphoriye. Or years of bombing n suffering, this can go on forever.

He's not stupid to do such a thing. There will be a response from NATO from allowing this to go unpunished because Putin will think he can do it again and again.

 

[Han Patriot]

He's not stupid to do such a thing. There will be a response from NATO from allowing this to go unpunished because Putin will think he can do it again and again.

Response like what? sanctions? Lollolo. For gods sake, you see US troops on the ground? They can keep on shouting, but everybody knows, no P5 will fight direct wars amongst themselves.

China must be hard at work supplying shit to NK and Iran to supply to Russia. Lol

 

[Oldman1]

Well, look at it strategically.

If the ultimate aim is to cut Russian supply line in half, and stop the land corridor. Then you don't really need Mariupol, Melitopol could do. Mariupol can act as a ferry point and using the port to ship stuff to Crimea instead of going from all the way from Russia.

In a tactical sense. You have 2 crossing point over a wide and deep river, and an entry point just off the river. Conventional wisdom would suggest you assault parallel toward the river, which have the river act as your flank, and attack Russia thru Orikhiv or closer at Kamianske. But I would say Ukraine have enough force to push from both Nova Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhia, IF they did not send any troop to Bakhmut, which is another logical things to do.

It really depends on how Ukraine want to do it, they have the upperhand now, because they have option, Russia would need to at least react to this which would put them in passive. I would doubt Ukraine will let this chance go, but then I do not speak for Ukraine...They might think it's okay, that's far enough, we call it until next Spring.

Russian troops mindset after just retreating from Kherson only to see another massive attack from another direction. Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Response like what? sanctions? Lollolo. For gods sake, you see US troops on the ground? They can keep on shouting, but everybody knows, no P5 will fight direct wars amongst themselves.

China must be hard at work supplying shit to NK ane Iran to supply to Russia.

Ukrainian troops are enough. You can see the NATO Air Force bombing the Russians in Ukraine like it was Gulf War 1. And the Ukrainian troops seeing their country just suddenly nuked, they are going to be 10 times better than the American troops, more than ever.

 

[Han Patriot]

Russian troops mindset after just retreating from Kherson only to see another massive attack from another direction. Out of the frying pan and into the fire.


Ukrainian troops are enough. You can see the NATO Air Force bombing the Russians in Ukraine like it was Gulf War 1.

I had been listening to propaganda like this for the past 6 months that Russia will lose. Its a war and advancement and retreat is normal. I think Russia is courageous enough to retreat to defensible east side albeit all the hoohah and political pressure. Militarily, its the right thing to do. I salute them for their bravery to do the right thing. LOSE MEN FOR TERRITORY EQUALS LOSE BOTH MAN AND LAND.