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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2


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Ukraine has made a significant advance south and now very close to the Surovikin line just east of Novoprokopivka
 
Ukraine lost two MIG29 in mid air collision , 2 of the dead pilots were selected for f16 trainings
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Maybe it was not Putin’s act. Probably not.
Yes Putin had killed Pirigozhin weeks ago when they both met in person.

Rumors say Prigozhin’s jet was brought down by a bomb or missile initiated by his arch enemy, Russia’s defense minister Shoigu. Prigozhin accused Shoigu of corruption and misuse of power. And Prigozhin had evidence. Well, no more with the crash of the plane. Every evidence was destroyed.
This seems plausible but a SAM shoot down involves knowledge by a large circle of people: the chain of command and then the sensor to shooter. If idea to make it a public punishment than thats what would have happened. But if idea was to do it secretly, missile makes less likelihood that a straight of planting a bomb that only a dozen people would need to know.

Also, given the location half way between Moscow and St. Petersburg, not a place where SAMs likely to be deployed. They would be close to St. P. or closer to Moscow but not have batteries that far out.

So SAM shootdown less likely
 
Maybe it was not Putin’s act. Probably not.
Yes Putin had killed Pirigozhin weeks ago when they both met in person.

Rumors say Prigozhin’s jet was brought down by a bomb or missile initiated by his arch enemy, Russia’s defense minister Shoigu. Prigozhin accused Shoigu of corruption and misuse of power. And Prigozhin had evidence. Well, no more with the crash of the plane. Every evidence was destroyed.

Yes that has some more sense.

Anyway, Shoigu wouldn't kill Prigozhin without Putin permission.

And carry secrets documents about Shoigu in a plane is stupid when that kind of things can be sent electronically securely.

The question for me is, if Prigozhin that he was convicted because he was pimp of minors is the good guy, who kind of person is Shoigu and another Russian military high ranks? Devil on Earth?.

I doubt something like that can happen in Russia wothout Putin approving it.

To me it seems Putin wanted to make an example out of him. In medevil times they choped heads and put then on display.I guess this is his version of that.

There is a long lists of people who spoke against Putin and dies in " mysterious " circumstances .


That list is very incomplete since it doesnt appear Khodorkovsky and he's very famous, although he's still alive, but Navalny too.

So one could imagine the large list of unknown people killed by similar reasons in Russia and another Eastern countries.
 
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Russia already backtracked.
“Borders to be decided by consultation civilians.”
This was after losing Cherson capital.

Russia has like 70% control of the 4 provinces. It is unable to conquer more and struggles to keep what it currently invaded.
70% 80%,does not matter, the Russians will keep what they took and can defend. Anything West of the Dnipr is hard to defend, so my bet is they will keep what they have now and demand neutrality. Kherson includes some territories in west Dnipr, but is it defensible? I don't think so and I think they will redefine the border after this is over.

Who is attacking russia proper??
Russia vowed to respect ukranian territorial integrity after ukraine gave up its nukes and mass majority (even majority crimea) voted independance in the 90s

Russia is the agressor here. Invading sovereign countries and lands like its “risk the game”. Ukraine is pushing back. Is Russia going to nuke the world because ukraine did not lay down and surrender its territory?
I think you should read my post carefully. I said the only way to defeat Russia is to destroy Russia. Fighting Russia in Ukrainian soil does nothing to the Russian industrial complex. And if you attack Russia proper with US troops, it is WW3. It is really that simple. Russia won't nuke the world because Ukraine did not surrender, Russia will just keep grinding and they are winning this grinding war. They were overconfident like the Ukrainians now a few months ago, overstretched and did not build proper defensive lines. Now we have reports of 40k Ukrainians slaughtered vs near negligible Russian losses due to those lines. Cracks are appearing, NATO and US seems to be indicating they want to talk. Jewlinsky wants to fight till the last gentile Ukrainian. You guys have no idea how Jews think huh, their only homeland is Israel mate. You just got punked.

Russia the aggressor? What happened to not an inch east of Germany? NATO expansion over the years while disrespecting a weakened Russia did this. The Russians thought they could join NATO and be accepted as a real European. But no, the Anglos cannot accept that. A landmass and power the size of Russia coupled with the French and Germans would have toppled Anglo supremacy. Divide and Conquer, the most used Anglo trick on earth.


gorbachev gave ukraine independance. That shows how even many russians do not fully see that territory as “russia proper”.

Blame the victim?
Half eastern europe came RUNNING to Nato for protection against its former colonial master. That has mostly shown them violence and repression. Including horrors such as the katyn massacre and holodomor.
Gorbachev gave them independence because he was a ln idealist, he thought by being nice, those countries would never threaten Russia by joining NATO. They were enticed with carrots to have a chance to be whores in Western Europe or be low level slaves there in return for some bread. After the collapse, these Eastern Europeans became Europe's Mexico. Btw, nobody is defending Soviet Union, they are no angel nor are the Muricans.


Maybe russia should respect Eastern europes sovereignity and borders?

Look at ukranian public opinion. Its massively dropped every time russia tried to manipulate and control by brute force…which is almost the only thing they know…

Did Russia invade anybody in Eastern Europe after their collapse? Ukraine wass their last desperate resort to have a buffer zone. You don't talk about how CIA funded flower revolutions around ex Soviet republics?
This is how you sound:
Maybe china should sit back down and bow…it is pushing WAAAY to much against the red lines of the GREAT british EMPIRE!

Ukraine kept independance in 75% of the nation like 90% majority wished.
No torture rooms and dissapearing opposition under russian boot.
We helped achieve that.
China is keeping quiet buying time. Let the Whit3s fight, a united Europe is more dangerous to us. Our interests might actually aligh with the Anglos. Lololol. Tell me about the Azov batalliom man, they were brutal, not angels either, you seriously think this is a war between good and evil? It is a war between two gangsters one smaller gangster who is trying to betray his older brother. Lolol.

It is the ukranians that decide if it is worth fighting on.


Afghanistan and arms race broke soviet back.

This is very much the same situation.

Russia thinks it is god demanding sovereign nations to remain subservient to it. Even EU connections was deemed as “too far” and it started stirring shit.

Russia is one of the few remaining colonial empires that chooses to remain oblivious to all its previous genocides and wrongs.
Few remaining colonial empires? Do you know how many colonies UK and France still have? Ever heard of the Afrixan franc. Don't be naive, which colony the Russians still have? Afghans broke US too ya know...lolol. A FEW TRILLION DOWN THE DRAIN for nothing.

Who is biggest colonial power? USA, 800 military bases, occupying forces in Korea, Japan and Germany till this day. Depose democratically elected government, uses NATO to attack sovereign countries. You call that respecting Borders? Wake up mate. This is the real world, Putin didn't want to negotiate with Ukraine, he wanted to negotiate with US the real puppet master.
 
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I doubt something like that can happen in Russia wןthout Putin approving it.

To me it seems Putin wanted to make an example out of him. In medevil times they choped heads and put then on display.I guess this is his version of that.

There is a long lists of people who spoke against Putin and died in " mysterious " circumstances .

Putin knows it. 100 percent. Shoigu, Gerassimov or any other potential assailant would never dare to carry it out, without knowledge and approval by Putin.
 
Prigozhin story is like a employee angry at his manager (Shoigu) and complaining to the upper chief (Putin).

The chief knows that employee likely is right and manager is idiot, but someone has to do the manager job, and employee can't substitute manager.

Employee became crazy and humiliated the chief, and that can be not tolerated, so the idiot manager (Shoigu) killed the employee with chief permission.
 

Scorched Earth: The Russians Destroy Everything That Moves. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.08.26

 
This seems plausible but a SAM shoot down involves knowledge by a large circle of people: the chain of command and then the sensor to shooter. If idea to make it a public punishment than thats what would have happened. But if idea was to do it secretly, missile makes less likelihood that a straight of planting a bomb that only a dozen people would need to know.

Also, given the location half way between Moscow and St. Petersburg, not a place where SAMs likely to be deployed. They would be close to St. P. or closer to Moscow but not have batteries that far out.

So SAM shootdown less likely
Let’s assume missile shooting. That don’t take long chain of command. That’s probably 5 people. All takes maybe 5 minutes. Then Prigozhin’s plane is doomed.

Putin-> Shoigu or Gerassimov -> the commanding general of St. Petersburg-> the commander of missile battery-> the shooter
 
This seems plausible but a SAM shoot down involves knowledge by a large circle of people: the chain of command and then the sensor to shooter. If idea to make it a public punishment than thats what would have happened. But if idea was to do it secretly, missile makes less likelihood that a straight of planting a bomb that only a dozen people would need to know.

Also, given the location half way between Moscow and St. Petersburg, not a place where SAMs likely to be deployed. They would be close to St. P. or closer to Moscow but not have batteries that far out.

So SAM shootdown less likely
It's more likely a SAM brought down the plane than a bomb.

With bomb attack, that's explosion is going to cause explosive decompression within the cabin at 25k AGL. The plane will not come down in one giant piece (with only the wing detached) it will be blown outward and collapse inward and stressed the airframe and it will shatter into million little pieces, this is not how we saw in the video (assume the video is actually that plane gone down). On the other hand, a tactically deployed explosive device in the area if it is small enough, it could also detach the wing but run without blasting off the entire plane.

If it was missile, the missile will either go after a radar lock or IR lock, Embraer Legacy 600 have the engine right next to the wing, which is presumed missing in the downing. It would most likely where the missile is heading if it was a heat seeking missile. On the other hand, evidence that does not support this is, there are no missile vapour trail before/after the incident and there are no wreckage of missile found, missile don't ram their target, they use proximity fuze and explode next to their target, so the remaining of a missile would be found or at least seen if it was indeed a missile attack.

But all in all, I would put my money on a missile. Unless some new evidence came up,
 
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