I gave my estimation because i am not delusional that they are intact and fresh as at the start of the war, that is normal period for rotating, resupplying and redirecting limited amount of personal and equipment that they commited in ukraina.Again, that's not what you said at all.
You said the Russia would launch an offensive in the Summer (which is in about 5 weeks time) and you don't buy they run out of men and materiel.
And again, my question is, if they had not run out, and can sustain another offensive, why stop the current one and launch another one in 5 to 6 weeks. You just don't do that, if you have enough man power for another imminent push, you would do it now, instead of in 5 or 6 weeks time.......
This is not a "Hey, let's see how we can make it harder than it already is" game we are playing. In war, unless you have some sort of need to make it hard, you usually don't do that...........
Your position is contrary of it that they are not capable for any offensive in foreseable future. Lets see who guessed better.