Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[Ich]

Heeeee Hooooo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635007000265510912

 

[ZeGerman]

Whose Intel? That's the problem

We blindly trust one Intel.
The same Intel told us afgahnistan is stable (even though we at Afghanistan neighborhood said it's not)

Same Intel said Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

You would expect USA and Europe to tell you Russia is winning or even holding off

The day that report comes out the funding will stop because people in Europe and USA will be up in arms to stop this war (as inflation is hurting people)

In this war you have to look at claims at both sides and then look at ground situation

Which is clear
Sanctions aren't enough and Russia is slowing but surely going to take donbass by end of this year..

Unless Ukriane gets cluster ammunition and F16s..that's what Poland is saying


EVERYONE knows hard Russian exports number

And the number is massive..
Russia is running a big surplus in current account deficit


Number provided by Russia are wrong ?? But why?

How come Russia would have high inflation..the math doesn't add up

For inflation to be higher you either need to have high import cost or high raw material cost.. nothing has changed for Russia

Imports are cheaper then ever and ruble is stronger then ever..!! So how will Russia get inflation???
The only thing expensive will be iphones not food energy or anything it can source from China(which is basically everything except iphones and high end chips)

Nonsense from western sources is no different then what non sense Russia does by inflating it's weapons capabilities (on this forum when use to discredit Russia weapons advance avionics/ systems given lack of r&d since 1980s)

Russia's January car sales down 63% year-on-year, says AEB

Car sales in Russia fell by 63.1% in January, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) said on Monday, as the industry's difficulties under the weight of Western sanctions continued into 2023.

www.reuters.com

Rosaviatsia Approves Aircraft Cannibalization

Rosaviatsia, The Federal Air Transport Agency, has given the green light for aircraft cannibalization to go ahead as sanctions continue to bite Russia.

aviationsourcenews.com

Russian budget deficit 88% of full-year plan by February, on course to miss MinFin’s 2% of GDP target

The Russian federal budget deficit for January and February 2023 was almost RUB2.6 trillion, according to the Ministry of Finance, down by half ...

www.intellinews.com

Sanctions will slowly squeeze russias finances. And put key sectors back decades. Just keep the pressure on.

That and making sure to keep having waves and waves of russians turn into fertilizer.
It takes a lot more dead russian cannon fodder rapists before they dare to oppose their “tsar”.

I do agree west is taking it waaaay to easy.
Putin needs to go

 

[Ich]

interesting

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634996399224881160

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635006287674220545

 

[ziaulislam]

I will agree with you on that the West is absolutely not taking it seriously.

It is a stark contrast with Western leaders giving panicky speeches with shaking ankles in Poland a year ago.

They got at ease now as they know that there is no chance of Russians going to Poland now.

Russia has no plans to get Poland.
It would have probably not went to war even with ukriane if west kept their word but who knows.

I don't think USA wants to risk an escalation it just want to hurt Russia that's the plan
USA knows ukriane will loose but it's a bonus if it doe a maximum damage

 

[Paul2]

Russia has no plans to get Poland.

Russia has no plans for Poland after lossing half its military.

 

[That Guy]

Russia has no plans to get Poland.
It would have probably not went to war even with ukriane if west kept their word but who knows.

I don't think USA wants to risk an escalation it just want to hurt Russia that's the plan
USA knows ukriane will loose but it's a bonus if it doe a maximum damage

No one kept their word, not even Russia. Let's not pretend Russia is an innocent victim here. They've been am expansionist aggressor nation since their very inception. It is their state ideology to dominate Asia, and that includes Pakistan.

 

[kingQamaR]

I wouldn't say so, even if Bakhmut is such a convenient point to tackle Russian forces, it's static defence against an enemy still having artillery superiority.

Even small, half-hearted feint counterattacks could've kept Russians discomombulated, and have more or less the same effect, while having a chance to gain ground, score trophies, and dislodge Russians from defendable strongpointsof their own, making it easier for coming counterstrike, but most importantly, it wouldn't have given Russian artillery an upper hand.

As of now, they just sit in trenches few km apart, and lob whatever arty they have left at each other.

The only explanation is that they are that much short on artillery.

So then, Bakhmut is the Ukranian Stalingrad - the city from which there is to be no retreat in the face of greater opposition force. How horrible is the uncanny way in which history keeps repeating itself.....as the news reports accompanying out of Bakhmut clearly demonstrate.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Someone should tell the russian that fleeing to argentina part should be done after or near the war end.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634976366193156096

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

and i prove the evidence of war in Europe date 2400 years before the evidence you provided for existence of war in china and it started with massacre , at least in china it was war , not killing defenseless people

FYI before Rome was even a thing the Chinese murdered & eaten people by the millions.

 

[jhungary]

Good analysis and predictions but since you don't have a crystal ball it is hard to predict which way this war will go. You seriously have underestimated the China angle and the reciprocation of support from Russia allied nations. India is playing a double game and crudely insulted the US and allies by supplying goods and buying commodities from Russia and continue to support Russia as an ally with the pretext of being a "sovereign nation and taking self interest decisions and actions". This NATO - Russia war in Ukraine will have decisive consequences for the world order with China and India coming out on top whatever the outcome whilst the Zion economies will be ravaged with recessions and reduced economies when the world turns against them. Offering brown faces in the highest positions in government in Zion states for the purpose of acquiring trade positions will only consolidate Indian hegemony in political and economical play within those countries.

Unless NATO supplies troops the Ukrainians are seriously disadvantaged as almost 20% of Ukrainians have fled the country, 20% that should have been working on war aligned functions but who instead are being exploited as European cheap labour.

As for "military intelligence" you guys get it wrong many a times as we have seen in many conflicts. As your job is observe and report there are many things you cannot see such as the human will to fight, the human fire for freedom and the love of God over love for self.

Well, you misunderstood what we do. I process data, I don't make command decision, we in the intel community don't really do that. I am that person who tell people in charge what do I think will happen. I am not the person who act on those information, for example, I can tell you Bakhmut is going to hold as long as T-0504 remain in Ukrainian hand, whether or not people in command want to pull troop out or reinforce those area is not my decision to make. Many Western Military told Zelenskyy to withdraw from Bakhmut in order to save troop, but then they aren't Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy see if he withdraw from Bakhmut, then the next town would be Bakhmut, for him, it's no difference, because you are going to need to defend somewhere. That's why he put more troop in, instead of pulling them out. Was that a mistake? I don't know, time will tell.

On the other hand, if you ask me what I think about the direction this war is going, I have already mentioned numerous time that this war is going to end with a negotiation, it didn't really matter whether or not Russia win or lose, or even pulling troop out today, that did not end their ambition there, even just throwing people at Ukraine, enough of those would make enough damage. This war can only end either Russia somehow drops their ambition on Ukraine, or Ukraine have security guarantee, aka NATO membership. Either of which cannot be seek on the battlefield, simply neither Russia or Ukraine can completely destroy the other, which mean the end must come from a negotiation, either Ukraine give in and Russia drop their ambition, or Russia give in and allow Ukraine to join NATO.

While I do agree with you Russia ability to rage war can be altered by India and China ability to sponsor the war. But I can also tell you one thing, EU are equally not going to step aside from this, because it is their backyard, I don't know the outcome of this war, but EU would not want Russia to win, because they know EU would be next, be it kinetic aggression (as in actual invasion) or subterfuge, EU weren't prepare for any of those, for them, facing the prospect to have to deal with Russia themselves and millions of refugee, then sending whatever they can scrape up with to help Ukraine and put the war right there for as long as they can is the cheapest and the easiest solution than having to deal with Russia themselves. That's why they are going to support Ukraine no matter what, because if not, they are next, because if Russia win in Ukraine, the next battlefield would be in EU.

On the other hand, if EU and US economy is being "Ravaged" then India and China would suffer too, because those are their main market of their product, I mean, you are not going to earn as much if you sell stuff to Africa or Russia than to US or EU. That's just a given, the prospect of China and India helping Russia FOR THEIR OWN BENEFIT is there, but to a point they commit mass economic suicide with each other over Russia is unlikely. India and China need EU and US more than Russia considering US and EU together is 2/3 of world economy.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

India has bent the knee to globohomo soros funded western agenda

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634983394412220416

 

[jhungary]

I wouldn't say so, even if Bakhmut is such a convenient point to tackle Russian forces, it's static defence against an enemy still having artillery superiority.

Even small, half-hearted feint counterattacks could've kept Russians discomombulated, and have more or less the same effect, while having a chance to gain ground, score trophies, and dislodge Russians from defendable strongpointsof their own, making it easier for coming counterstrike, but most importantly, it wouldn't have given Russian artillery an upper hand.

As of now, they just sit in trenches few km apart, and lob whatever arty they have left at each other.

The only explanation is that they are that much short on artillery.

Well, Ukraine can only do that if and when Russia culminated from the attack, right now, it still not and it's on going, if so, no point actually to even start doing prep work for any counter attack, right now is a "manpower" extensive phase, both side are chucking body into the pile. And both side seems okay doing so, which mean putting any effort other than this is probably just going to waste, may as well save them for actual push they know it is coming.

On the other hand, if you ask why both sides seems okay to put body into the pile, for Russia, that;s more or less what they can do right now, their attack is resort to WW1 trench storming tactics, drop a ton of arty into an area, then rush infantry in and storm that area, then rush more infantry in to take control, and then repeat the attack, that is going to cost them a lot of boots. Ukraine, on the other hand, I have no idea why they are okay with putting body into the pile. Yes, those are TDF guy, less well trained, more expendable, but still you are playing into Russian game, which they really shouldn't and if it was me, I would most likely abandon Bakhmut and move into a more defensible position now. Let them come to you and trade time with space, the Russian are making slow or very slow progress, that make trading space for time more favourable.

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

@jhungary @Paul2

As strange as it may sound to you right now RUSSIA will win this conflict..

I am gonna tell you why Russia will win this war. The Russians will win the battle of attrition and this war is only 1 years old and we haven't even reached the sailing of how hard it can get. The conflict will go on until around 2027-2028.

In my prediction the conflict will swing towards Russia heavily during the late 2025 and early 2026 and Russia will continue the momentum and quite surprisingly take Odessa, Including Dnripo, Kiev itself will fall to the Russians after a grilling war and when the fatigue sets in the Ukrainian fronts will collapse further.

I predict a large cannon fodders will be deployed by Iran they will gather up militias like they are already doing with their Afghan militias fatimoun, they will gather more from Iraq, Syria etc etc after signing non-aggressive pact with Turkey. Including they just mend ties Saudi Arabia and signed agreement with them hence they face no more chellenges regionally and have only friends now which frees them up to send everything now towards Ukraine and throw the sink at it. More Ammos and everything they can throw at them and China will also use the Iranians as proxy to deliver weaponry to Russia.

Russia will be embellished with cannon fodder troops via WAGNER majority of them iranian cannon fodders and weaponry including unconditional financial aid from China under the table.

China does not want to see Russia lose in Ukraine because it would be a major stragetic defeat for them as the Americans will next fortify their border areas

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

"Russia will win."

What is it they said that amateur discuss strategy while the professional discuss logistic. By logistical standpoint Russia already lost.

@jhungary @Paul2

As strange as it may sound to you right now RUSSIA will win this conflict..

I am gonna tell you why Russia will win this war. The Russians will win the battle of attrition and this war is only 1 years old and we haven't even reached the sailing of how hard it can get. The conflict will go on until around 2027-2028.

In my prediction the conflict will swing towards Russia heavily during the late 2025 and early 2026 and Russia will continue the momentum and quite surprisingly take Odessa, Including Dnripo, Kiev itself will fall to the Russians after a grilling war and when the fatigue sets in the Ukrainian fronts will collapse further.

I predict a large cannon fodders will be deployed by Iran they will gather up militias like they are already doing with their Afghan militias fatimoun, they will gather more from Iraq, Syria etc etc after signing non-aggressive pact with Turkey. Including they just mend ties Saudi Arabia and signed agreement with them hence they face no more chellenges regionally and have only friends now which frees them up to send everything now towards Ukraine and throw the sink at it. More Ammos and everything they can throw at them and China will also use the Iranians as proxy to deliver weaponry to Russia.

Russia will be embellished with cannon fodder troops via WAGNER majority of them iranian cannon fodders and weaponry including unconditional financial aid from China under the table.

China does not want to see Russia lose in Ukraine because it would be a major stragetic defeat for them as the Americans will next fortify their border areas

 

[Qutb-ud-din-Aibak]

Also The Chinese peace-pact between Saudi Arabia and Iran has shifted the stragetic map significiantly.

The Americans are the kings of allies and the plan was to sacrifice Iran for Israel, KSA, UAE, Egypt, Turkey and other regional allies. The Americans outside of NATO their strongest alliance is the Sunni-bloc and they are numerous in numbers if you add them on them of NATO it turns into like 80 countries coalition. If the Americans had delivered Iran meaning if they were to storm together Iran this would have only tightened their alliance further and enough to convince them to join them on a Chinese adventure in WW3 because at that point they will have a significiantly large cannon fodder group on top of NATO and land corridors. The Chinese understood that a large coalition was building against Iran which could have potentially splid onto china itself and Iran is tied to Russia and China can't leave Russia and they saw this major stragetic error and allies forming against Iran and in order to separate the allies the Chinese came up with the peace pact in order to divert this massive coalition forming against Iran and eventually and potentially one that could splid over to themselves at later date.

But now the Americans don't have anything to deliver to the regional states as they have mended ties. They have nothing to offer on the table to entice them. Hence why Israel's Ex-Premier minister Lapid said ''Our walls have been teared down'' Because the US and Israel wanted to use them as shield.

These regional states aren't chellengers for the world hegemony themselves but they are swing states and can swing the power balance to one of the 3 players (Russia/China and US) significiantly. The US has put alot of effort into grooming them in order to use them as cannon fodders at later date and the enticing price was suppose to be Iran on a plate but now they have lost that card for good