Russia All set to lose the Indian defense market

[Echo_419]

I see the military share of RUSSIA shrinking from high of 70% to alm ost down to just 25% in the next decade

The indengious indian industry & USA & israel and europe will take even slice each by 2020+ i see this being

Indian indengious 25%
USA 20%
Russia 20%
israel 15%
France 15%

your maths is poor sir
& indeginous industry shares some 30% if i am not wrong

 

[Mirza Jatt]

If one compares to delivery schedules of the US and Israel then on all counts Russia sucks, they consistently miss each and every delivery date.

..and it became worse with Vikramaditya...I am not sure wether to be sad that Indo- Russian deal became so ugly or happy that, this actually kinda revealed Russian hidden face.

 

[Zabaniyah]

It's too early to conclude that.

I predict their current commitments on various project will last till at least 2040.

 

[Wickerman]

Its rumoured some of IAF 4000 RUSSIAN SUPPLIED BVR/WVR missles dont work

What? How do people know it doesnt work before being fired

Anyway, I dont think Russia is losing out on the defense market. We cannot substitute Russia at this time with the United States. What I foresee is Russia's role in the Indian defense market decreasing as time goes on. In the mean time we need to develop good trust with the US so that ToT will be much easier. Nothing can substitute American tech, but at this time there is no one else that can give us technology transfer as much as Israel, France and especially Russia can.

 

[illusion8]

It's too early to conclude that.

I predict their current commitments on various project will last till at least 2040.

Like what? apart from FGFA which has been scaled down considerably and Brahmos, and the stop gap super sukhois what else is in the pipe line.

at most we would be leasing another akula, we refused S300 and 400 already, we have also refused one more new aircraft carrier. mig 29s bought are again stop gap till AMCA or Naval Rafale takes its place.

Though u r right that some developments will continue for a few decades but those will come under the 20% share that Storm force envisages.

 

[arp2041]

Like what? apart from FGFA which has been scaled down considerably and Brahmos, and the stop gap super sukhois what else is in the pipe line.

at most we would be leasing another akula, we refused S300 and 400 already, we have also refused one more new aircraft carrier. mig 29s bought are again stop gap till AMCA or Naval Rafale takes its place.

Though u r right that some developments will continue for a few decades but those will come under the 20% share that Storm force envisages.

I think u are concluding things on limited evidence, Russia was & will remain an important partner of India for atleast 2 more decades. There are many important things that make India & Russia come together even with little differences:

1. Yes, FGFA nos. are cut as of now, but the word of Air chief are not cast in stone, i m pretty sure when the HAL will be running the assembly lines of FGFA the final nos. will get past 250 (i.e deal can be of around $30+ billions), i m concluding this because this is how every Indian deal has gone in past, first we buy anything in limited nos. than slowly & steadily we increase the nos. case being the su-30 mki's from starting order of 50 the no. has come to 272, still no one can say for sure if this is the final figure as su-30s can still go pass 300 figure mark.

2. Russia is building a nuclear energy park at Kundakulum with one more site being searched for another nuclear park, these deals are worth billions, if Indians were not interested in Russians any more than they could have given the contract to the French or Americans.

3. Super Sukhois are not the stop gap arrangement as u claim them to be, IAF will start inducting these from 2014-15, the same time the Rafales are scheduled to be inducted, if the IAF din't wanted them than there was no need to buy them as we were getting Rafales anyway. The fact is that IAF is in love with these birds as they give them somewhat cheap & efficient alternatives to semi-stealth planes like Rafales.

4. We are buying another Akula sub for sure (deal will run into $1 billion for a 10 year lease), again there was no need as were building our own SSN/SSBN.

5. Not to forget the follow-on order of Talwar class frigates, again cheap, efficient frigates which IN gets without disrupting the schedule of Indian shipyards as they are made in Russian shipyard.

6. We are also jointly developing Brahmos-2, MTA with Russia, a development which binds Russia & India together for a good no. of years.

7. India is dependent on Russia for the UNSC permanent seat, Ayni base, energy, etc.

These & many other deals easily run into billions of dollars, making India dependent on Russia for atleast another 2 decades, so there is no way that India gonna dump Russia for the near & mid-term. What India wants as far as the defence deals goes is only the want of best weapons for there armed forces, India can no way jeopardise it's national security just to satisfy the ego of the Russians, Is India wrong in demanding that???

 

[illusion8]

1. FGFA numbers are cut owing to the projected time frame, 2020's, 2030's are times of unmanned stealth crafts and introduction of research into 6th Gen planes, India in a way out of sheer exasperation owing to the delay is punishing Russia - if you believe that's possible.

Why was the twin seater FGFA program dropped? because it wasn't feasible owing to time delay and cost.

2. I am just talking of the defense industry - there are lot of other areas where we will be cooperating and working with our friend.

3. Super Sukhois are a stop gap to the FGFA which is delayed - it's not a continuous program - it's just an arrangement to maintain parity with China - Russia is helping us out in that. Kudos to them for that.

4. Negotiations are on for one more leasing of an Akula so yes very much in line.

5. The other "P" programs might include Russia or India may go it alone - Russian input is crucial - no denying that.

6. Brahmos is a very well developed and advanced program and there is no turning back, the Brahmos II is an Indian requirement and I have not denied mutual co operation in that. MTA has just begun and not exactly crucial like say DRDO AEWAC's or AMCA - the Russians were also keen on the Civilian aircraft joint development and manufacturing which most likely India has refused.

7. Geo politics and other fields of co operation will definitely be open.

These & many other deals easily run into billions of dollars, making India dependent on Russia for atleast another 2 decades, so there is no way that India gonna dump Russia for the near & mid-term. What India wants as far as the defence deals goes is only the want of best weapons for there armed forces, India can no way jeopardise it's national security just to satisfy the ego of the Russians, Is India wrong in demanding that???

We are clearly discussing defense industry here - apart from the FGFA and frigates or the 42 Super Sukhoi's - there are not many big ticket items with Russia. Until the performance of Russia improves I doubt India will be too keen to go Russia's way other than if it's for Geo political reasons.

Russia will be an important partner no doubt but with a diminished share.

 

[Luftwaffe]

The news that USA has for the 4th time in 2 years tipped Russia to a BIG indian military contract is no surprise

Your indian defense ministry and indian military top brass rejected russian equipment. Why do you get sentimental there is always a choice now that hindustan has decided to tilt towards western equipment suppliers mainly due to quality equipment. If hindustan is focusing on quality isn't it best for you, so stop glorifying russian equipment.

Regardless of what you pro-rusio guys may claim, russians have lost a big market to US-West. In next 10 Years russians would become second supplier with US being 1st and israeli/French being 3rd.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Your indian defense ministry and indian military top brass rejected russian equipment. Why do you get sentimental there is always a choice now that hindustan has decided to tilt towards western equipment suppliers mainly due to quality equipment. If hindustan is focusing on quality isn't it best for you, so stop glorifying russian equipment.

Regardless of what you pro-rusio guys may claim, russians have lost a big market to US-West. In next 10 Years russians would become second supplier with US being 1st and French being 3rd.

Those are the laws of bizniss. Gain some........lose some. Its cyclical.

 

[arp2041]

Russia will be an important partner no doubt but with a diminished share.

First part of this sentence is what i m trying to convey, as far as the second part goes than it is obvious for any independent nation to do, gone are the times when India was 70-80% dependent on USSR/Russia for it's defence equipment, it was too risky & at times of emergency India was hopelessly dependent on Russia, so it was logical for India to bring the Russian share to levels which does not bother India much as they used to earlier. This has nothing to do with India becoming unfriendly with Russia or India becoming friends with US.

 

[illusion8]

First part of this sentence is what i m trying to convey, as far as the second part goes than it is obvious for any independent nation to do, gone are the times when India was 70-80% dependent on USSR/Russia for it's defence equipment, it was too risky & at times of emergency India was hopelessly dependent on Russia, so it was logical for India to bring the Russian share to levels which does not bother India much as they used to earlier. This has nothing to do with India becoming unfriendly with Russia or India becoming friends with US.

You are right, if Russian defense industry had evolved to Indian requirements or if there was more professionalism in delivery schedules and prices - with both research and development of advanced platforms that India is keen on then they could have maintained the lead in the future too. The ball was and still is in Russia's court. If they can match up then why not.

 

[Secur]

Like what? apart from FGFA which has been scaled down considerably and Brahmos, and the stop gap super sukhois what else is in the pipe line.

FGFA has been scaled ? When did this happen and what was scaled - the order or some capabilities ?

 

[Luftwaffe]

Those are the laws of bizniss. Gain some........lose some. Its cyclical.

Yes, so pro-rusio should accept its is business as usual nothing personal, should stop glorifying russians on the ground of large market they are but after the delivery of all C-130J/C-17/Apaches/P-8/GE Engines And indian indegenious development of AEW&C and medium SAMs/Radars and other communication equipment I think russians are losing market rapidly by 2025 I highly doubt russians would be largest supplier but Western Nations US-Europe and israel.

 

[illusion8]

FGFA has been scaled ? When did this happen and what was scaled - the order or some capabilities ?

The numbers have been scaled down, also the twin seater has been abandoned.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

30 billion 5th generation fighter deal.T-90 Deals and logistics support.Another huge MRT aircraft joint dev deal to replace over 100 an-12s.Current mig-29 upgrades going on.The modernization of the sukhoi fleets.ATGM konkurs and invar.More mig-29ks.3 more upgraded talwar class frigates.

I don't know what ur talking about.