StormBreaker
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Well put, you have triggered multiple “undiscussed” problems or points in your post, That’s what i wanted.YoungPak,
Delightful read. Good attempt. You can do better than this. Back to drawing board and question your line of thinking. Come back with something of Quality again!
As I have said earlier as well.. 5thGen is not about the fighter but more about the entire Ecosystem. This makes it a bigger challenge than just joing TFX AND J3x.
Essentially we are talking about the entire PakArmedForces Network to be upgraded to 5thGen Level... wherein a stealth/LOF can operate. Should/when we have that upgrade even Thunder Blk3 can provide % performance of 5thGen. And Blk4 even more so... which shall come!
We are not starting from ZERO. Nor we are already in a place to at least design in-house a 5thGen Ecosystem. Of course, finance/RnD and HumanCapital comes into play. We might or might not be that bad...
Fundamental quesiton that we need to ask is: Why does PAF need a 5thGen in the first place? What must be its contours i.e. Ecosystem both in reach and capability/capacity?
Also, it is imperative to understand that it is not about going with Turkish or Chinese stuff ... it is about fundamentally embedding ourselves into one particular Ecosystem...which has enormus implications both for forces and OurStatecraft!
I do understand the feelings of both hues... Fanboyismoz and all-PakArmed-Forces are corrupt/coward/incompetent!
Both, in essence, are painkillers, escapismoz....
Indeed, in a sea of sewer how can there be fragrance of roses... so yes, corruption is endemic... this should say everything that needs to be said.
It is my firm belief that Pakistan in all aspects must follow Directed Evolution Model... which of course, applies to 5thGen Ecosystem as well.
Invention of wheel is neither necessary nor desirable for Pakistan. We need to focus both on Horizontal and Vertical Transformation strategies.
In other words, build from ground up HumanCapital and TechnoCapital and at the sametime leverage what is already out there.. creating a Synthesis which creates a Industerialismo...both in Thinking and Doing.
The very reason I joined PDF was JF.. was a absurdly proud moment to hear/read about PAC making its own jet. Back then we had to suffer so much abuse from the esteemed Indian posters... and now we do have an evolving Ecosystem. Not Zero anymore.
Block3 might not be 100% of our doing but it is also not totally foreign either. We did help our Chinese friends..and those in PRC who matter value it... ignoring the hypernationalist posters is a must. Most of us don't know jack..including yours truly!
This, once again, brings us to the question of having a 5thGen Ecosystem.. Why do we need it? Against whom do we need it? What is our geopolitics in a decade? Think Gawadar..think CPEC...think SEZs and most importantly..think OurBiggestProvince... our EEZ in PakSea... think AfroPakOceanRegion!
So what is the 5thGen Ecosystem we need?
There is so much we need to do to be proficient in all Nine Aspects of War so that we can have Peace..and 5thGen Ecoysystem is needed.
At the moment it appears that we shall go with both TFX and J3x...leveraging components from both allies/friends to create a Hybrid, Pak Specific Stealth Fighter.. however, to create a functioning 5thGen Ecosystem we need to do much more...
There is somework being done in Artifical Intelligence... mostly nascent... this needs to be given full priority across the board for all 6 PakArmedForces... luckily even our political class is talking about it... so there is a tinny start there.
PAC needs to work much more on MALE/HALE UAVs/UACVs... for this we are not that handicapped. Hence, there must be a sense of urgency to at least dare to experiment on different concepts without breaking the bank!
You know very well I am not a techman in defence field... however, I do understand money and policy to an extent... the productivity per FTE in our DefenceProduction needs to go up than it is now.
Frankly, this is where we need to employ much more in ICT/Integerated Production Systems/Robotics and best-practices in management.
I don't say that our people are not doing hardwork... I am implying that we need to do smartwork too. It is the quesiton of FTE utility. Think about per FTE cost in the entire life cycle... and then There is Pension Bomb which none is daring to talk about.
Yes, this is related to our 5thGen Ecosystem..too...since it is not just fighter... sorry, to be boring...but Statecraft is also about counting pennies sometimes!
Now have a look at the Thunder production.. our FTE cost is lower than the Chinese.. which adds up to price/cost of Thunder... if/when we can bring the entire production in PAC this cost shall go down... in other words there is something holding back the transfer of production to PAC... I don't know why that is. Part of the Deal? @airomerix @messiach
Now when you look at this JF production...story... are we going to produce all of 5thGen Fighter at home?
Most likely not... once again this brings us back to embedding of our entire 5thGen Ecosystem to one/two allies/friends... thus making OurStatecraft also beholden to them..both in good or bad way... Leverage goes both ways!
So for now... let us neither be lut gae mur gae ..corrupt/traitors/imcompetent routine NOR over-the-top Fanboyishismoz..
My sense is Pakistan shall go for both the Turkish and the Chinese solutions and shall try to see what else is possible from other reliable sources..and create a Hybrid 5thGen Ecosystem... in which both TFX and J3x will play a role.
We shall not invent the wheel... we shall make it Green!
I do agree with @Irfan Baloch to have a dedicated space for some productive, value-added discussion... would be educational for YoungPaks...perhaps for OldPaks too...
@The Eagle Brother mine, I second your suggestion of integerating Irfan Sahib's and others posts to the thread you mentioned... would require patrolling to keep that one troll /nonsesne free...might be some thread bans!
@StormBreaker now think about all NINE Aspects of War.. Think about 5thGen Ecosystem...come up with a detached analysis of what Pakistan needs to do... to have a fully functional ecosystem with a decade plus!!!???
Mangus
- The point mentioning some “unspoken” hurdle to Shifting of Thunder Production to Pakistan was an eye opener, something that kept me in loop of giving it a second, then a third thought, and then again.
- And then you highlighted the ecosystem of Production instead of being JUST a producer like we are at the moment.
- Then comes in Turkey + China instead of Turkey Or China.
- Determination of 9 aspects of war ? What are they ?
Coming to Point 2, Most of us, we associate Kamra Aviation City with AZM, perhaps because AZM is so big of a project that it overshadows the potential of Aviation City initiative. Point to remember always, Without Aviation City, AZM can NEVER Happen indigenously.
The whole concept of an aviation city is backed by the skeletal composition of an Industrial Base which comprises of two inter related characteristics :
- Infrastructure
- Expertise
- The Infrastructure expansion of PAC Kamra to an even larger organization with more features and capabilities which are required to produce A jet from scratch to end product, including all onboard systems, Materials, And other external systems such as Pods, AAMs, AGMs and SOMs. AvRID is responsible for the most critical aspect of our local Designing industry, responsible for designing new Planes, And Other systems. MRF can possibly take up the role of Engine Manufacturing through ToT in future due to its decades long experience on The TurboJets of Mirages and in general PAC Kamra’s experience of working on F-16 and JF-17 powerplants. However, local production is definitely a whole different thing and not a simple work to do. Relating the powerplant production to your concern of Chinese lack of interest in giving ToT of Everything, the monopoly will be shifted once Turkey’s Engine enters production, this is the chance for Pakistan, to get into the Turkish engine Project, Learn from it, possibly try to make it a JV by trying to bring in more partners so as to reduce the share prices. $12bn project can not simply be afforded by Pakistan in the form of 2 nations partnering. As for Radars, On board systems, currently we are just producing solutions available in market, none of them are our own designs or tech, we have to initiate small programs to focus on developing them further into next gen avionics, all by ourselves but with assistance from other IF needed. One can say that PAC produces and assembles Thunders but realistically we are just Producing and assembling them, Our contribution to the development of the project is good and related to critical aspects but let’s not forget, we aren’t capable of doing that ALL ALONE, not At the moment (which is nothing to be ashamed of). We have learnt through this project, what we should have done in the 1970s, well, Better late then never. So Back to infrastructure, PAC is being expanded, lets wait for another MoDP report to see the progress in this regards.
- Now, the reason our discussion have been going on since yesterday, EXPERTISE, the other characteristic of local industry, without which, Infrastructure is useless and would be only a home to spider webs. We have got many ambitious and hard working, well qualified engineers working on Thunder project and Super Mushak as well as other projects of PAC, be it AAM, Avionics, anything. They posses one very precious thing, EXPERIENCE. Experience of working on these projects, opens up the minds of engineers while tackling day-to-day issues, they get innovative and think or let’s say in this case, dream of possible ways they could have modified the structure/feature had they been given control of project. “Oh, why are they doing this when my solution in mind could make it better”, we have these engineers, the real deal of PAC !!! These talents are not to be wasted like the Agosta ToT loss of expertise over the years. PAC engineers have learnt a lot from China, then France as well as USA and Turkey. They can be further pushed to exceed their current academic limits, become worthy of running a local industry base with all infrastructure ready. Brining in fresh, highly capable and “outstanding” graduates, providing them relief and handsome package, will encourage them to go on further, these in turn will serve as our long term expertise, they will learn from the experience of our current Engineers of running programs. So Sponsoring the best, giving them all the best they can deserve, will surely bear fruits.
Remember, AZM won’t be an easy one for us, if it is from Scratch, India tried the same with Tejas, they poured in cash for 4 decades but with unpleasant results even though they have access to advanced tech from all over the world. We can make fun of tejas program, but that has given india a lesson, a lesson of How to properly Plan a Project from scratch since tejas was affected by Bad Planning, Poor planning ruins everything. Tejas should be a lesson for us as well, to plan AZM accordingly, not to avoid all the assistance we can get from allies, sometimes advices work miraculously!!!
@Mangus Ortus Novem @aliyusuf @CriticalThought @Irfan Baloch