@Chak Bamu
Looks like a new normal will be created for India in Kashmir. Basically reverses the policy of not negotiating with India with out reversal of annexation.
I had mentioned this in a post before, but never thought it would be so quick:
Don't worry, they took a hit on their ego. Just a storm in a teacup. :pakistan: Look black uniform speaks now whose own worth on the road is 50 rupees only 😜😆
defence.pk
India already created a new normal. Pakistan just helped them along.
A bit of background first: The first time Pakistan had to go on back-foot over Kashmir, diplomatically speaking, was in the aftermath of Kargil. This is pretty common knowledge among those in the know & if you have a contact in Foreign Office, you may confirm this for yourself. Mushy painted Pakistan as a back-stabbing villain & we could not explain ourselves. Why do not really think that NS wanted to get rid of Mushy in 1999?
Once Mushy came in via his dastardly coup, he took the first really damaging steps on the ground. he pulled troops back from LOC. IA quickly built its bunkers that it otherwise could not have done. This cemented LOC as a de-facto border. So the first real & permanent reversal to Pakistan's Kashmir cause was done by Mushy, both on the diplomatic level & on the actual ground. Both these things worked in India's favor. Influential capitals closed their ears to Pakistan's case & India successfully convinced the world that Pakistan was an unstable state that never was able to build democratic credentials or institutions. So get this straight: the real damage done to Pakistan's Kashmir cause / case was a stupid, adventurous, & a traitor general.
Pakistan has long known that their is no military solution to Kashmir issue apart from keeping Indians in a stalemate. That is why when Modi killed Article 370 & declared IOK as regular Indian territory, Pakistan did absolutely nothing. Had it been a pre-1999 situation, we could have done something substantial, but we could do nothing in 2019.
As time passes, we see more & more results of security-centered policies that come back to bite Pakistan. Politicians claw back some much needed international legitimacy, only to find him/her undermined by a general. In the pre-2019 conditions, we had done solid work in track-2 diplomacy. What became of it? NS got called Modi Ki Yar & when civilian leadership tried to convince Establishment of the need to let go of failed policies, we got Dawn Leaks as a result. NS was finally pushed out & a bit later new government of PTI was installed via rigged GE2018 (I've shared evidence, modus operandi, & rationale for doing so in multiple posts elsewhere). What happened thereafter when BJP-led government rescinded Article 370? Nothing! Absolutely Nothing. We had checkmated ourselves.
Now what recourse does Pakistan have in this current situation?
It would be instructive to understand overtures from Establishment for some pseudo-normalization with India (refer to QJB's speech in recent Security Conference in Islamabad). Do not assume that SS is doing this on his own. PML-N would not be allowed to sit in the driving seat if you truly believe that there was a conspiracy to remove PTI government. You can not believe that & then imagine that SS as PM is charting an independent course.
What Pakistan desires is a respite during which we can reorganize ourselves, improve economy, repair damaged foreign relations, & show the world that we are partners in peace. Once such a position is achieved, Establishment can shift gear, have the PM (whoever he may be) kicked out just like NS was kicked out, blame a 'corrupt' government of colluding with the enemy, & reverse policies for own convenience. We'll get a 'patriotic' & 'nationalistic' Mr. Clean leader, who would be beholden to the Establishment for a shot at the PM slot. If this works out (will not, because it never does), Pakistan would be back in business & raise temperature in Kashmir.
The above is my dispassionate reading of the situation. You may choose to ignore it and continue to beat PTI drum. Fair enough. But do not be surprised at the dissonance in the future.
